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China eyes higher EV, renewable energy use by 2030

  • Spanish Market: Metals
  • 27/10/21

The Chinese government has announced plans to accelerate achieving its peak carbon dioxide emissions by 2030, targeting much higher usage of new energy vehicles in the next decade.

Beijing is eyeing a 40pc share of new energy vehicles (NEVs) and clean energy-powered vehicles in the country's total vehicles by 2030, double from an earlier target of 20pc by 2025, according to an action plan issued by the country's state council yesterday.

China will push the use of NEVs, gradually reduce sales of traditional fuel vehicles and promote replacement of urban public service vehicles with electric vehicles and increase the use of heavy freight vehicles powered by electricity, hydrogen fuel and liquefied natural gas, according to the plan.

The moves are in a bid to achieve the country's goal of peak carbon emissions before 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060, with non-fossil energy consumption expected to rise to 25pc by 2030, while the carbon dioxide emission per unit of GDP down by over 65pc from 2005, the plan said.

China's total NEV output and sales during January-September reached fresh highs of 2.166mn and 2.157mn units, up by 184.5pc and 185.3pc on the year, respectively. Current rapid growth in the NEV market is expected to help China achieve the 20pc target for 2025 within the next two years. NEV sales currently account for 17.3pc of China's vehicle sales, with 19.5pc for new energy passenger vehicles, according to China Automotive Manufacturers Association.

China will also promote other renewable energy in the next decade, with combined installed capacity for wind power and solar power generation targeted at over 12bn KW by 2030, the plan said. It is also on target to add 40mn KW of installed hydropower capacity during the country's 14th and 15th five-year plans respectively.

China aims to accelerate applications of new-type energy storage and deepen its reform on the electric power structure, with installed capacity of new-type energy storage projected to exceed 30mn KW by 2025.

Higher NEV and power battery production is expected boost long-term demand for metal feedstocks such as lithium, cobalt, nickel and manganese. China's import prices for lithium carbonate rose to $24-24.50/kg cif China yesterday, up from $23-23.50/kg cif China on 19 October and stood at the highest since Argus launched this assessment in June 2018.

The wind power market is expected to account for around 30pc of the global growth in demand for rare earth magnets from 2015 to 2025, according to Lynas Rare Earths, the largest rare earths producer outside of China. Wind turbines also consume chromium, cobalt, manganese and molybdenum. Chinese offshore wind capacity is growing rapidly, with the country having 9.4GW in operation and planning to build another 64.4GW, including floating projects.

China NEV output versus lithium prices (Yn/t)

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US tops expectations with 254,000 jobs in Sep


04/10/24
04/10/24

US tops expectations with 254,000 jobs in Sep

Houston, 4 October (Argus) — The US added more jobs than expected in September and the unemployment rate ticked down, signs the labor market is strengthening heading into the US presidential election. US nonfarm payrolls rose by 254,000 workers last month, and the jobless rate fell to 4.1pc, the Labor Department reported Friday. Gains in August were revised up by 17,000 to 159,000 and those in July were revised up by 55,000 to 144,000. September's job gains were much higher than the 140,000 estimated by economists in a Trading Economics survey. Job gains blew past expectations in the same month the Federal Reserve began cutting interest rates for the first time since 2020, citing concerns that a weakening labor market might pull down the overall economy. Odds of a quarter point rate cut at the next Fed meeting in November rose to 91pc today from about 68pc Thursday, according to fed funds futures markets, while odds of a half-point cut fell to 9pc. The Fed last month penciled in 50 basis points of cuts in the remainder of this year. Job gains were higher than the average monthly gains of 203,000 over the prior 12 months, the Labor Department reported. Employment continued to move higher in food services and drinking establishments, health care, government, social assistance and construction. The labor market was little affected by Hurricane Francine, which made landfall in Louisiana on 11 September, during the reference periods for the surveys that contribute to the report. Gains in restaurants and drinking places rose by 69,000 jobs, much higher than the average 14,000 added over the prior 12 months. Health care added 45,000 jobs, below the monthly average of 57,000. Government added 31,000 compared with monthly averages of 45,000. Social assistance added 27,000. Construction added 25,000, near the monthly average. Manufacturing lost 7,000 jobs, most of them in the auto industry. The unemployment rate fell from 4.2pc in August, still higher than the five-decade low of 3.4pc posted in early 2023. Average hourly earnings rose by 4pc in the 12 months through September, up from 3.8pc through August. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Europe to keep using NPI until CBAM: Anglo American


04/10/24
04/10/24

Europe to keep using NPI until CBAM: Anglo American

London, 4 October (Argus) — Europe's stainless steel producers will continue to import and use nickel pig iron (NPI) until the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) enters its definitive period in 2026, according to John Eastwood, major nickel mining group Anglo American's head of sales, stainless and specialty steel raw materials. A region-wide scarcity of stainless steel scrap and rising raw material costs drove European mills to pivot to using the cheaper and more carbon-intensive Indonesian NPI this year, with imports equating to 10,000t of nickel metal content in January-July, according to Red Door Research managing director Jim Lennon. A European trading firm told Argus this week that Spanish producer Acerinox, ramping up production after a five-month strike-related outage this year, has also committed to using NPI as input feedstock. Speaking on the sidelines of the Nickel Institute Seminar during LME Week on 2 October, Eastwood said this trend will not die down in the near term despite recent falls in scrap prices, with only CBAM — the EU's tax measure to limit carbon leakage within the region and support its long-term climate goals — being a likely deterrent. Currently in its trial phase before full planned implementation in 2026, CBAM requires European importers to offset the CO2 emissions linked with the production of the goods purchased overseas by buying emissions certificates. Scrap suppliers in Europe are waiting as they realise they cannot compete with NPI, with the downside to prices likely to be limited as a result, Eastwood said. The Argus assessment for stainless steel scrap 304 (18-8) solids cif Rotterdam has fallen by nearly 20pc since 22 August and was last at an average €1,175/t. The European stainless steel industry is facing a severe downturn with real demand set to shrink for a third straight year in 2025. Flat producers in particular are operating at well below capacity amid low downstream service centre demand, and Eastwood foresees no change to fundamentals until the second half of 2025. "The problem is not profitability, the problem is there is excess capacity," Eastwood said. "We had Acerinox out of the market for months this year, but it made little difference to the market and prices. Despite a shortage of scrap, there was no impact on our ferro-nickel sales, which tells you how weak the market is." Eastwood believes the second half of 2025 is when demand might recover as the effect of improving macros and easing monetary policy will start to kick in. CBAM has come under intense criticism from European stainless steel producers given that it does not include scope 3 emissions while imposing taxes on selected upstream raw materials, with many producers simply viewing it as a protectionist measure that is fast-tracking de-industrialisation. Eastwood echoed this sentiment and stressed on reform, but said the industry had now accepted that it was here to stay. "There are many holes [in CBAM]. It includes ferro-nickel but leaves out refined nickel, for example," he said. "It is not uniform for the whole supply chain. Average CBAM costs are about $1,000/t of nickel. It is not clear who will pay this." Anglo American's projections peg the class 1 nickel market as the sole provider of market surpluses in the coming years, with the Asian class 2 market, including NPI and ferro-nickel, balanced and even tight, Eastwood said. Nickel prices on the LME are expected to move similarly in 2025 relative to this year. "The wider surplus story is here to stay," Eastwood said. "The story about nickel rocketing up is over. We do not expect much change." Eastwood noted freight costs as a significant limiting factor for the stainless steel industry next year, curbing imports of finished stainless steel into Europe. "Freight prices have been astronomical, and we expect it to remain the same next year," he said. "These costs will weigh heavily on trading, whether imports or otherwise." By Raghav Jain Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Dockworkers end US port strike


03/10/24
03/10/24

Dockworkers end US port strike

Houston, 3 October (Argus) — US dockworkers have ended a port strike that had shut container terminals from Maine to Texas, after their union late Thursday struck a tentative agreement on wages. The International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) has agreed to extend its contract with the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) until 15 January to provide time for negotiating the remaining outstanding issues, the ILA said in a statement. The USMX includes containership owners, terminal operators and port associations. "Effective immediately, all current job actions will cease and all work covered by the master contract will resume," the ILA said. The strike, which started on 1 October, had forced containership operators to queue up outside US east coast ports. Major container shipping agencies such as Maersk had initiated surcharges for US east coast and Gulf coast-bound containers later in October. By Jack Kaskey Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US light vehicle sales surged in September


03/10/24
03/10/24

US light vehicle sales surged in September

Houston, 3 October (Argus) — Domestic sales of light vehicles rebounded in September, increasing to a seasonally adjusted rate of 15.8mn on the strength of greater truck purchases. Sales of light vehicles — trucks and cars — rose from a seasonally adjusted annual of rate 15.3mn in August, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today. Sales have whipsawed the previous four months, but September's rate largely was in line with the 15.7mn unit rate in September 2023. The US Federal Reserve last month cut its target rate for the first time since 2020, bringing it down by 50 basis points from its 23-year highs as inflation has been easing. Lower inflation and Fed easing, which ripples across credit markets, make it more affordable for people to purchase new vehicles. Fed policymakers have penciled in another 150 basis points worth of cuts through 2025, as they hope to head off any weakening in the labor market that could scuttle the wider economy. Higher overall sentiment about the US economy, fueled by a robust 3pc growth in gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter, healthy labor conditions and consumer spending also have encouraged consumers to spend. Sequentially, light truck sales increased by 3.1pc to a 12.8mn unit rate in September, while sales of cars rose by 4.4pc to a 3mn unit rate in the same time period. By Alex Nicoll Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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