Iron ore on Australian trade agenda to India

Iron ore trade is on the agenda as Australian prime minister Anthony Albanese leads a state visit to India this week, along with three of Australia's largest iron ore mining firms and resources minister Madeleine King.

Australian mining firms BHP and Fortescue, as well as UK-Australian firm Rio Tinto, have joined the visit as they look to grow exports to India. Australian firms have tried in the past to increase iron ore sales to India, which is seen as a major growth market for steel-producing raw materials, but they have struggled to compete with domestic supplies and from other producing regions.

Australia supplied no iron ore to India in 2022, according to Australian Bureau of Statistics data provided by GTT. This was down from 411,000t in 2021 and from a peak of 9.43mn t in 2018. Indian buyers have been sensitive to iron ore prices in the past, with the peak in 2018 coinciding with the Argus ICX price for 62pc Fe fines trading in a $60-75/dry metric tonne (dmt) cfr Qingdao range. It averaged $160.06/dmt in 2021 and $120.41/dmt in 2022.

Australia is a large supplier of metallurgical coal to India, which has little domestic coking coal resources and fewer alternative international suppliers. India took 45.53mn t of Australian coking coal in 2022, down from a peak of 54.25mn t in 2021. It has been the top export destination for Australian coking coal for at least the past decade, followed by Japan.

If Australia were able to replicate its coking coal success for iron ore, it would reduce its reliance on China that took 84.4pc of Australia's iron ore exports in 2022 and 81.6pc over the past decade. China is seeking alternate sources of iron ore, particularly through investment in Africa, to reduce its reliance on Australian supplies. If it is successful then it will be important for Australia to seek alternative customers, such as India.

Argus last assessed 65pc Fe iron at $142.40/dmt cfr Qingdao on 8 March, down from a recent high of $146.05/dmt on 21 February but up from a low of $90.45/dmt on 31 October.

By Jo Clarke

Iron ore prices ($/dmt)