Red Sea tensions could halt EU India HRC quota overfill

Elevated shipping times caused by tensions in the Red Sea could prevent India's hot-rolled coil (HRC) safeguard quota in the EU from overfilling on 1 April, as participants had expected.

India shipped just over 520,000t of HRC to the EU in December and January, according to customs data, all of which appears to have been cleared into the first-quarter quota. Including unused tonnage rolled over from the previous quarter, this quota totalled 574,550t, with just 46,934t currently unused, meaning that 527,000t is utilised.

This suggests that material shipped from India in February will predominantly comprise the April-June quota of 294,662t. Vessel tracking data show that India shipped 404,582t of flat-rolled products to the EU in February, although the data do not give detail by product. Indian material could theoretically use one-third of the other countries' quota in April-June too, under the safeguard regulation. That quota will fill quickly again, as has been the case in recent quarters.

Longer shipment times mean that most Indian material shipped in the second half of February — 215,170t of flat-rolled — will arrive after 1 April, and either be cleared or held over until the next quarter: after day one, any material cleared above the quota amount pays a straight 25pc duty, so it is likely that some will be held over from April-June and clear into the July quota.

Vessels going round the Cape of Good Hope rather than sailing through the Red Sea will take an average of 45.5 days to arrive at EU ports from India in April, according to data from Kpler. Vessels arriving by the Red Sea in January were taking around half this time, or even less.

This means that around 189,000t of February shipments could be cleared into the April-June quotas on 1 April, plus tonnage held over from the current period, totalling 46,934t for HRC. Assuming that all the material shipped in the first half of February is HRC, the quota would not overfill on day one, even with the material held over from this quarter factored in. But it is expected to fill later in the month.

By Colin Richardson