Global molybdenum use is expected to grow steadily over the next decade, driven by its crucial role in high-performance steels and increasing relevance in the global energy transition, attendees heard at last week's International Molybdenum Association annual general meeting in Vina del Mar, Chile.
Molybdenum demand is expected to rise to 500,000 t/yr by 2034 from an estimated 398,000t last year, including primary and recycled material, according to intelligence firm SMR. The metal's applications in electric vehicles (EVs) — even if in lower volumes compared with an internal-combustion engine (Ice) vehicle — renewable energy infrastructure and hydrogen fuel cells are expanding, prompting a shift in production and demand patterns.
Power generation is expected to grow by 9pc/yr to 2030, the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) said. The GWEC recently projected that 350GW of offshore wind capacity will be installed in 2025-34. From 2029, steel demand from the offshore wind industry is expected to be 5.8mn t/yr, assuming two-thirds of the new capacity is built in 2029-34.
"The industry has had to grapple with the uncertainty deriving from geopolitical tensions and the radical energy and trade policies introduced by the US administration, adding risk to energy demand and price forecasts," the GWEC said.
Despite elevated geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty, the IEA says capital flows to the energy sector are set to rise to $3.3 trillion in 2025, up by 2pc on the year. Of this, $2.2 trillion will go to renewables, nuclear, grids, storage, low-emissions fuels, efficiency and electrification.
The aerospace market is expected to remain a strong driver of molybdenum demand in the next decade. While major aircraft manufacturers like Airbus and Boeing continue to face supply chain issues, Boeing's commercial aircraft deliveries in the first eight months of 2025 surpassed total shipments last year.
At the same time, global automotive production is predicted to expand to 2034, further supporting molybdenum consumption.
China's January-August auto sales and production rose by 13pc on the year apiece to 21.13mn units and 21.05mn units, respectively, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, supported by government measures that boosted steel demand.
Europe's commitment to phasing out new Ice vehicle sales by 2035 is expected to support steady growth in molybdenum demand over the next decade. Backed by 150 major e-mobility firms, this is driving investment in EV manufacturing, battery plants and infrastructure — all of which rely on molybdenum-containing alloys and steels.
Risks to market growth
One of the main challenges to demand growth over the next decade is related to supply chain disruptions. Transport delays, geopolitical tensions and environmental problems can lead to output shutdowns and lost sales, triggering price volatility. At the forefront of market participants' concerns is the friction between major economies such as the US and China, which could disrupt the flow of molybdenum-containing goods.
And environmental and regulatory pressures, particularly in China, are seen as potential risks to future production. China, the world's largest consumer and producer of molybdenum, has began to enforce environmental regulations, leading to stricter permitting processes. Falling ore grades add another challenge by pushing up production costs and slowing output growth.
