Mexico's inflation quickened to an annual 3.8pc in November, driven by acceleration in fruit and vegetable prices and rising core inflation.
The consumer price index (CPI) accelerated from 3.57pc in October, statistics agency Inegi said Tuesday, after accelerating to 3.76pc in September from 3.51pc in July, which was the lowest annual headline inflation rate since December 2020.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, sped up to 4.43pc from 4.28pc in October. This marked a seventh month above the 4pc level — the high-end of the central bank's target inflation range.
Within core, consumer goods inflation accelerated to 4.37pc in November from 4.12pc in October, while services quickened to 4.49pc in November from 4.44pc in the previous month.
The three largest contributors to CPI in November, as weighted by Inegi, were electricity rates, with the end of seasonal subsidies, fares for secondary public transportation and tomato prices.
Non-core inflation accelerated in November to 1.73pc from 1.18pc in October. Agriculture prices, particularly fruit and vegetable prices, have been slowed this year by favorable climate conditions. But a change is emerging.
And while annual inflation for fruit and vegetables contracted 7.79pc in November, this compares to the 10.27pc annual contraction the previous month. The segment has seen rising inflationary pressure, noted Banorte, driven by extreme rainfall in several states in October and nationwide roadblocks in November organized by freight truck associations.
Energy prices slowed to 0.54pc from 1.07pc in October, with Banorte noting "remarkable stability" in the segment for most of 2025, "aided by government actions and favorable international benchmarks. However, the latter have been mixed recently, with improvements for gasoline but higher prices in both natural and LP gas."
November headline and core inflation surprised to the high side, surpassing forecasts of 3.76pc for the headline print and 4.36pc for core at Banorte.
Banorte noted the latest data positions headline and core inflation to be above the central bank's year-end forecasts of 3.5pc and 4.1pc, respectively. However, Banorte expects the central bank to issue an additional quarter-point rate cut to its target interest rate to 7.00pc from 7.25pc, when it meets 18 December — citing dovish remarks in the central bank's quarterly presentation.
