India's coking coal imports are poised to rise further in 2026, on the back of capacity additions across major Indian domestic steel producers and changing trade dynamics in the metallurgical coke market.
India's crude steel output rose by 12pc on the year to 13.8mn t in November, cementing its position as the world's second-largest steel producer and a major long-term driver of coking coal demand.
Domestic policy ambitions for 300mn t/yr of steel capacity by 2030 are driving the expansion programmes of key producers.
JSW Steel plans to increase capacity from 34.2mn t/yr to 50mn t/yr by the 2030-31 fiscal year. Tata Steel is aiming for 40mn t/yr by 2030 from 26.6mn t/yr in 2025. Steel Authority of India (SAIL) is targeting 35mn t/yr by 2030, and Jindal Steel, formerly JSPL, intends to reach 15.6mn t/yr by the 2025-26 fiscal year. ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel India plans to achieve 15mn t/yr by the end of 2026.
These expansions will translate directly into higher import requirements through 2026 and beyond, given India's limited domestic supply of high-quality metallurgical coal.
Market participants expect India to maintain its role as a key buyer in the seaborne coking coal market, even as global supply tightness is set to extend into the first quarter of 2026.
Coke market shifts to amplify coal requirements
The metallurgical coke segment adds another layer to the outlook. India's coke market has been subdued for much of 2025 because of quantitative restrictions on low-ash metallurgical (LAM) coke, which were extended through to the end of the year. The Directorate General of Trade Remedies also published preliminary findings in its anti-dumping investigation on LAM coke imports from six major origins in mid-November, setting the stage for provisional anti-dumping duties.
Anti-dumping duties would push up prices for seaborne coke, but imported product would still be more price competitive than domestic coke.
Domestic producers have an advantage on prompt availability and lower handling losses, but suppliers said there has been a clear increase in enquiries for imports. Roughly 110,000t of interest emerged in early December, with buyers seeking both early December and January laycans, suppliers said.
Indonesian coke producers, in particular, expect stronger Indian interest in the coming year. Indonesian coke's price competitiveness and consistent quality are already well regarded among Indian mills. More Indian buying could increase Indonesian coke producers' upstream coking coal demand, tightening regional coal availability.
Supply tightness supports prices in December
Seaborne coking coal prices rose in December, and Indian buyers appear set to re-enter the market in early 2026.
The Australian premium low-volatile (PLV) hard coking coal price climbed to a 13-month high of $207.15/t fob on 10 December. This was because of tight availability of premium mid-volatile (PMV) coals, which have become scarce on the back of the absence of output from UK-South African producer Anglo American's Moranbah North mine and the suspension at its Grosvenor mine after an underground fire in June.
Many Indian mills favour these coals for blend stability. These disruptions have reduced the pool of high-quality feedstock available to Asian buyers and pushed prices higher through December. Seasonal weather has also supported prices. Heavy rainfall across Western Australia (WA) and Queensland has raised concerns over supply and logistics.
The Argus premium low-volatile hard coking coal index in November averaged $212.82/t cfr India, down by 3pc from a year earlier.
