An expected influx of ferro-titanium to the US is likely to continue to pressure prices in 2026 after imports surged this year, driven largely by weakness in the European steel market.
Overseas ferro-titanium producers — facing lackluster demand in Europe — sought to take advantage of an arbitrage opportunity increasingly beginning in June, as offtake remained stronger in the US.
European steel association Eurofer attributed the weakness in the European steel industry to declines in consumption from automotive and construction sectors because of volatility caused by the US's 15pc tariff on imports of EU-produced cars and heightened global tensions over country-specific tariffs. Ongoing economic uncertainty brought on by the tariffs restrained growth opportunities in manufacturing as trade disruptions and geopolitical tensions rose, according to Eurofer.
US imports of ferro-titanium increased during the January-September period by 18.6pc to 1,804 metric tonnes (t) compared with the same year-prior period, according to the most recent data from the US Department of Commerce, which was delayed by the partial US government shutdown. Imports from top suppliers the UK and Canada dipped down by 10.6pc and 7.2pc, respectively, to 669t and 335t. Meanwhile, imports from Latvia surged 148pc to 447t, the largest increase, and metal began to trickle in more competitively from South Korea and Poland. The September data shows an increase of 119pc to 217t in imports from a year earlier.
Five-year low prices persist
Sell-side sources told Argus they hope the market has found its floor but remained concerned about ongoing weak European demand, should the pattern of offloading supply to the US continue into next year.
Argus last assessed North American ferro-titanium prices at $2.15-2.30/lb fob warehouse on 18 December, down by 25pc from the beginning of the year and at a five-year low. Argus last assessed European ferro-titanium prices at $4.30-4.60/kg ($1.95-2.09/lb) on 18 December, down 26.4pc from the beginning of the year and also at a five-year low.
US sellers expressed frustration and difficulty in booking spot sales. One trader cited persistent, unsustainably low prices as reasoning for exiting the ferro-titanium market altogether, with few expectations the market would rebound in the near future.
Some sellers have opted to sit on their stocks, waiting for demand from cored-wire producers and mills to rebound in the new year, which is leading to a build-up of metal. Because of storage fees and other carrying costs, domestic traders said they would be unable to make a profit at the assessed range, aiming to offer in the range of $2.35-2.45/lb warehouse, but acknowledged no buying interest at those levels.
During contract negotiations for 2026, some sellers incorporated price floors into their quotes in anticipation an oversupply of metal could further weigh on prices.
Sellers repeatedly tied the health of the US ferro-titanium market to European mill demand, stating there would be no turnaround in US prices until offtake abroad picks up. Eurofer projected apparent steel consumption would recover slowly in 2026 but not before the first quarter.
Possible tariff change could halt imports
Efforts by US producers could relieve pressure, should Commerce back them.
Domestic ferro-alloy producer Galt Alloy on 15 May asked Commerce to add ferro-titanium to the Section 232 national security tariffs on steel imports. The request was denied by the Commerce Department's Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) on 1 August because the agency was already investigating the security implications of the US's ferro-titanium supply chains under a separate Section 232 investigation for processed critical minerals which is due to be finalized by mid-January. BIS is expected to provide a report with policy recommendations which could include tariffs to President Donald Trump once it finishes the investigation. Currently, ferro-titanium has a general duty rate of 3.7pc.
