European waste feedstock demand is set to rise in 2026, supported by higher targets under the EU's new Renewable Energy Directive (RED III) and the Netherlands' shift to greenhouse gas (GHG)-based mandates.
The Netherlands is moving to a GHG savings target without multipliers, while Germany is phasing out double-counting of certain fuels made from feedstocks listed in Annex IX Part A (9A) of RED III. As a result, GHG savings of biofuels and their feedstocks will become the key compliance driver in both countries next year.
Caps on Annex IX Part B (9B) feedstocks — such as used cooking oil (UCO) and tallow categories 1 and 2 — are pushing obligated parties towards 9A feedstocks, broadening and fragmenting the sourcing pool.
UCO supply and pricing outlook
Demand looks well supported heading into 2026, driven by rising mandates and EU-wide frameworks outside RED III, such as ReFuelEU Aviation and FuelEU Maritime, now entering their second year.
Hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) producers are expected to dominate UCO procurement this year, with strong margins and firmer obligations pulling more feedstock into hydrotreated esters and fatty acids (HEFA) pathways.
Most market participants expect UCO prices to remain broadly stable into the first quarter of 2026, with negotiations pointing to similar levels as late 2025. Some upside risk could emerge if China brings online a planned 500,000 t/yr of SAF capacity in 2026, boosting domestic UCO demand and pushing seaborne prices higher. At the same time, additional Chinese SAF supply — not subject to EU anti-dumping duties unlike HVO and biodiesel — could pressure European prices lower, tightening the SAF/UCO spread and squeezing margins.
UCO's high GHG savings continue to underpin demand even as double-counting disappears from Dutch compliance, though it remains in Mediterranean countries in 2026. European UCO methyl ester (Ucome) producers will be squeezed if UCO costs rise, but Germany's removal of double-counting for most 9A feedstocks could support some domestic Ucome demand.
Advanced feedstocks gain traction
Higher RED III 9A sub-targets are accelerating advanced biofuel uptake and reshaping a fragmented feedstock landscape. Buying interest for 9A-listed food waste oil (FWO) rose in the fourth quarter of 2025, alongside steady demand for soapstock acid oils (SSAO). Forestry-based crude tall oil (CTO) is gaining traction on strong Nordic supply and new co-processing investments, including Neste's European Commission-funded project in Finland.
Technical corn oil (TCO), a high GHG-savings ethanol by-product, continues to expand beyond Germany, where it is classified as advanced and eligible for quota generation. But treatment remains uneven across the EU — TCO is not listed as advanced in the Netherlands, with the Dutch Emissions Authority yet to clarify its status. Cashew nut shell liquid (CNSL) is also drawing attention as a marine blendstock and co-processing feed.
Regulatory uncertainty persists over cover and intermediate crops — such as camelina and carinata — as their use depends on how member states classify them under RED III during national transpositions.
Tighter Pome oil outlook
Palm oil mill effluent (Pome) oil faces regulatory pressure across Europe, including in Ireland, Germany, Portugal and the Netherlands, as authorities deepen investigations into traceability and origin verification.
Ireland excluded Pome-based advanced biofuels from receiving additional renewable fuel certificates from 1 July last year, while Portugal removed ISP energy-tax exemption for Pome oil and empty palm fruit bunches, though both retained double-counting status.
Germany's cabinet-approved RED III draft allows crediting of Pome-based biofuels placed on the market before 2027, reversing expectations of a full exclusion in 2026. The additional year could stimulate compliance-driven buying, levelling the playing field across feedstocks. This regulatory change may lead to firmer demand in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub, a key entry point for feedstock flows into Germany.
Supply uncertainty remains. Indonesian policies to divert material into the domestic biodiesel pool have already firmed prices, with further constraints expected as the country moves toward a B50 biodiesel blend programme in the second half of 2026 and advances plans to scale waste-based SAF output to 1mn kl/yr by 2030.
With limited new collection capacity and sustained European demand, Pome oil is expected to stay structurally tight in 2026, supporting a higher price floor.
