Brazil has issued a recommendation that could nearly triple provisional anti-dumping duties on US polyethylene (PE) imports, effectively shutting out most shipments, according to a department of trade defense Decom report into US and Canadian exports.
The report, issued on 2 February and seen by Argus, outlines the key findings of the investigation into PE imports under NCM codes 3901.10.30, 3901.20.29 and 3901.40.00.
Decom — part of trade ministry Mdic — calculated a dumping margin of $734.32/metric tonne (t), equivalent to 79.3pc, for US exporters. The authority determined dumping margins for Canada of $264.99/t (26.9pc) for one producer-exporter and $232/t (26.3pc) for another. Dumped imports are causing material injury to Brazil's domestic resin industry, and a causal link exists between the injury and the imports under investigation, Decom said.
Brazil currently enforces provisional anti-dumping duties of $199.04/t on US-origin PE and $238.49/t on Canadian-origin material. These provisional duties were imposed in August 2025 and remain in effect through 28 February as the investigation moves into its final phase. Interested parties have a 20-day window to file final comments following the report's publication. Once that period ends, Decom will prepare its final determination and forward it to foreign trade chamber, Camex.
The Camex executive management committee (Gecex) is expected to make a final decision by 14 May, the legal deadline for concluding the probe.
The outcome of the case is expected to have significant implications for regional PE trade flows. Market participants await Decom's final findings, which will determine whether the provisional duties are upheld, revised, or lifted entirely.
Limited effect
The provisional duties had a limited effect on Brazil's imports last year, as the US remained Brazil's top supplier even as it lost market share, official Comexstat data show.
Brazil's PE import values totaled $1.61bn last year, a 1.7pc decrease from $1.63bn in 2024. Import volumes increased by 2.2pc to 1.46mn t in 2025 from 1.42mn t the prior year.
The US was Brazil's main exporter, accounting for around 961,890t last year, with its share of total volume falling to 66pc from 71pc in 2024. Argentina was the second-largest exporter to Brazil, shipping nearly 218,380t last year and boosting its share to 15pc from 11pc. Saudi Arabia rose to third place with approximately 56,445t, representing 4pc of Brazil's total imports last year. Canada's deliveries fell by 40pc to 49,810t in 2025, with its share falling to 3.4pc from 6pc in 2024. Egypt dropped to fifth place with around 47,795t, accounting for 3.3pc of the total volume.
