Mexico's trade balance returned to deficit in January, driven by a seasonal drop-off in total trade volume as well as 20.1pc in oil sales from December.
Mexico posted a $6.48bn trade deficit in January, swinging from a $2.43bn trade surplus in December, statistics agency Inegi reported on 27 February. Total exports reached $48bn, while imports stood at $54.5bn in January. That compared with $60.7bn in exports and $58.2bn in imports in December.
Inegi attributed the shift in the January trade balance to the swing in the non-oil balance to a $4.27bn deficit from the $4.84bn surplus in December, while the oil trade deficit narrowed slightly to $2.21bn in January from $2.41bn in December.
The deficit was significantly wider than the $3.24bn deficit forecast by Mexican bank Banorte, who noted deficits are typical for January due to "front-loaded shipments from China ahead of the Lunar New Year celebrations." In this case, said Banorte, the wider deficit was tied to additional strengthening of the peso in January, moving to Ps17.66 to the US dollar from Ps$18.07:$1 in December
Looking ahead, Banorte sees additional volatility in 2026 in the balance on the shifting
tariff environment, including higher tariffs on some goods imported from countries without free trade agreements under Mexico's new customs law, as well as the upcoming renewal process for the USMCA free trade agreement.
Non-oil exports expanded 0.7pc in January to $46.9bn after a 0.4pc decline in December. Manufacturing exports edged 0.1pc higher to $43.5bn in January, after declining 0.5pc in December. Automotive exports, however, fell 2.3pc in January to $11.3bn, following on a 5.3pc drop in December. In contrast, non-auto manufacturing exports rose 1.1pc to $32.1bn after a 1.5pc increase in December, and agriculture exports grew by 5.9pc to $1.9bn, in a backdrop of relatively stable weather conditions.
Non-oil mineral exports rose 15pc to $1.53bn, on the back of a 3.6pc rise in December and 16pc increase in November.
Oil-related exports totaled $1.11bn in January, including $608mn in crude and $502mn in refined products, on lower prices and volumes. Exports were down 20.3pc from $1.52bn in December.
Mexico's crude export basket averaged $55.34/bl, down by $0.92/bl from December and $11.55/bl lower compared with a year earlier. Crude export volumes fell to 355,000 b/d in January from 481,000 b/d in December and 597,000 b/d in November, and also below the 585,000 b/d exported in January 2025.
Total imports expanded by 0.3pc in January to $54.5bn, despite a 15pc decline in consumer goods imports to $6.99bn and a 0.7pc drop in capital goods imports to $4.38bn. The increase was driven by imports of non-oil intermediate goods, up 3.9pc from December to $43.1bn, "benefitting from dollar weakness and manufacturing momentum," said Banorte.
