Mexico's inflation accelerated to an annual 4.02pc in February, as resurgent fruit and vegetable prices helped push the consumer price index (CPI) above 4pc for the first time since June 2025.
The result, reported by statistics agency Inegi on 9 March, marks a second consecutive month of an accelerating consumer price index (CPI) after reaching 3.79pc in January and 3.69pc in December. February's gain outpaced Mexican bank Banorte's 3.96pc consensus forecast of economists' provided by the bank.
Prices for processed foods and drinks rose by 6.2pc and costs for fruits and vegetables rose by 9.88pc. Services costs rose by 4.45pc, while consumer goods inflation slowed to 4.55pc in February.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, slowed slightly to 4.5pc in February, after reaching 4.52pc in January, the highest reading for core since March 2024.
The energy index contracted by an annual 1.77pc in February after a 1.16pc contraction in January on falling gasoline and LPG prices; however, upward pressure tied to the conflict in the Mideast Gulf is expected to accelerate energy price inflation.
Headline inflation exceeded the central bank's target variability range for inflation of between 2pc to 4pc for the first time in eight months, raising doubts over a quarter-point rate cut at the central bank's 26 March meeting, which would take the target interest rate to 6.75pc.
Banorte said the main risk to any rate cut would be that "they opt for more caution due to the conflict in the Middle East."
Non-core inflation accelerated to 2.44pc in February from 1.39pc in January, driven primarily by agriculture, including livestock, fisheries, and forestry, along with fruits and vegetables, which rose by 4.5pc on an annual basis.
The Mexican government continues to have margin for price pressures in buffers built into its gasoline tax to mitigate some of the impact from the conflict, Banorte added.
On a monthly basis, the CPI rose by 0.5pc in February — the strongest monthly uptick since October 2024, following 0.38pc inflation in January and 0.28pc in December.
