Lithium producers in Argentina, Brazil and Chile have enough uncommitted volumes to help fill the gap left by Zimbabwe's export ban.
Zimbabwe's ban, announced on 25 February, removed 140,000 t/yr of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE), according to Dwayne Sparkes, managing director of Australia-based exploration firm Nichols Point Minerals.
The country's sudden exit sent prices up sharply in the days following — any fluctuations in lithium supply are enough to move prices.
Argus-assessed cif China battery-grade lithium carbonate prices climbed by nearly 22pc in the 10 days after China ordered the closure of CATL's Jianxiawo lithium mine in August 2025.
In the wake of Zimbabwe's export ban, Argus-assessed 5.5pc spodumene prices in southern Africa had risen to $1,600-1,800/t on 2 March, up from $1,300-1,500/t the previous month. One trader saw an offer from southern Africa as high as $1,950/t fob on 10 March and prices are expected to climb even further in the coming weeks because of shipping problems.
Filling the gap
No one country can immediately replace Zimbabwe's position, but major Latin American producers have enough uncommitted 2026 LCE production to make offers to buyers that lost part of their supply.
The three largest lithium producers — in Argentina, Brazil and Chile — have 105,000t of 2026 production not tied to term agreements and available to the spot market.
Latin America's largest lithium producer, Chile's SQM, said it has reserved 20pc of projected 2026 output — 52,000t — for spot sales.
Rio Tinto plans to tie at least 40pc of its 2026 lithium output in Argentina to term agreements, leaving up to 36,600–38,400t uncommitted, according to Argus calculations based on its production guidance.
Rio expects to produce 61,000-64,000t LCE in 2026.
Brazilian market leader Sigma Lithium does not have any production tied to term agreements, but is in the final stages of negotiating two offtake deals that would commit 120,000 t/yr of spodumene in the next three years, including 2026.
Sigma's updated 2026 lithium concentrate production guidance is 240,000t, implying 120,000t of untied spodumene supply. This equates to roughly 16,300t LCE, based on Argus calculations using the spodumene-to-LCE conversion factor in California's lithium extraction tax law.
In addition to these three firms, Argentina has five other projects from five other companies that could have production available in the spot market.
Albemarle, Chile's second-largest lithium producer, plans to allocate 40pc of its global lithium salt output to term agreements, leaving 60pc available to the spot market. It expects total production of 235,000t LCE in 2026, including carbonate, hydroxide and spodumene.
Sigma is the only Brazilian mining firm with uncommitted production, as AMG Lithium and CBL heavily rely on long-term deals.
These Latin American sources at least offer some scope for former Zimbabwean lithium buyers to maintain some stock, albeit at what is likely to be a higher price.
Meanwhile, other African suppliers are ramping up production. One trader in the region said Nigerian and Namibian lithium could be an option, but prices and quality are not yet attractive enough to form viable supply.
"Everything has to be double, triple checked at the port and cargoes get rejected. You can't trust on-site inspections," he said, adding that nascent supply in other countries lacks the technical expertise that Zimbabwe has built in recent years.
