Opec has downgraded its global oil demand growth forecast for this year for a fifth month in a row but again raised its projection for next year.
In its latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), Opec cut its oil demand growth forecast for this year by 200,000 b/d to 380,000 b/d, which would leave total consumption at 105.84mn b/d.
Opec does not explicitly state a reason for the downgrades. But it has now reduced its 2026 oil demand growth forecast by a cumulative 1mn b/d since the US-Iran war began.
The latest downgrade was driven by China and other parts of Asia-Pacific along with the Middle East.
But Opec raised its oil demand growth forecast for next year by 200,000 b/d to 2.36mn b/d, which would leave consumption at 108.19mn b/d.
Opec kept its non-Opec+ supply growth forecast unchanged at 640,000 b/d for 2026 and 620,000 b/d for 2027.
Opec does not forecast Opec+ production but publishes an average of estimates from secondary sources, which include Argus. This shows Opec+ crude output — including Mexico and the UAE — rose by 297,000 b/d on the month to 38.055mn b/d in July.
The UAE withdrew from Opec and Opec+ on 1 May this year, while Mexico is not bound by an Opec+ production quota.
