Opec cuts 2026 oil demand growth forecast again

Spanish Market: Crude oil
10/09/26

Opec has downgraded its global oil demand growth forecast for this year for a fifth month in a row but again raised its projection for next year.

In its latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), Opec cut its oil demand growth forecast for this year by 200,000 b/d to 380,000 b/d, which would leave total consumption at 105.84mn b/d.

Opec does not explicitly state a reason for the downgrades. But it has now reduced its 2026 oil demand growth forecast by a cumulative 1mn b/d since the US-Iran war began.

The latest downgrade was driven by China and other parts of Asia-Pacific along with the Middle East.

But Opec raised its oil demand growth forecast for next year by 200,000 b/d to 2.36mn b/d, which would leave consumption at 108.19mn b/d.

Opec kept its non-Opec+ supply growth forecast unchanged at 640,000 b/d for 2026 and 620,000 b/d for 2027.

Opec does not forecast Opec+ production but publishes an average of estimates from secondary sources, which include Argus. This shows Opec+ crude output — including Mexico and the UAE — rose by 297,000 b/d on the month to 38.055mn b/d in July.

The UAE withdrew from Opec and Opec+ on 1 May this year, while Mexico is not bound by an Opec+ production quota.

By Aydin Calik

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09/09/26

Trump expects elevated oil prices into November

Washington, 9 September (Argus) — President Donald Trump on Wednesday said that global oil prices are unlikely to stabilize until after the 3 November midterm congressional elections. "Right after the election, oil prices are going to be tumbling downward", Trump told reporters. "It's going to take a little bit longer than the midterms." Trump, since he started the war against Iran more than six months ago, has routinely predicted that the conflict would wrap up quickly because of the supposed destruction of Iran's military potential. But on Wednesday, Trump laid out a new narrative that dispenses with his earlier claims of an imminent Iranian collapse, arguing that Tehran's strategy is taking the US electoral calendar into play. Iran is "desperate to try and affect the election so that we can get a nice, weak group of people in (Congress), and leave them alone and let them have their nuclear weapon," Trump said. But, he added: "The war will end immediately after the election because they can't hold out any longer." Trump was speaking to reporters before leaving Washington to attend an unusual, mid-term Republican party convention in Dallas, Texas, where party members hope to tout efforts to bring down prices for consumers. When the US joined Israel in attacking Iran on 28 February, Republicans envisioned a geopolitical victory abroad and cheaper fuel prices at home, a combination that would put wind at their backs to hold unified control of Congress. But, less than two months before the elections, polls indicate that Democrats are likely to wrest control of at least one chamber, if not both. The turnaround in political fortunes, in part, reflects voter concerns over rising inflation, not least because of higher fuel prices stemming from the Mideast Gulf supply disruption. US retail gasoline prices averaged $4.16/USG in the week ended on 7 September, up by around 40pc from late February. "We'll get them down, for gasoline, below $2 a gallon," Trump said on Wednesday. Trump, who ran for re-election in 2024 on a platform promising to cut US energy prices by half, downplayed voters' concerns about rising fuel prices. "I think it's very easy to explain to Americans," he said. "All you have to do is say, 'Will you let Iran have a nuclear weapon?' And the answer is 'no.'" The US and Iran are locked in a struggle for control of the strait of Hormuz, the critical waterway for Mideast Gulf oil and LNG exports where commercial traffic remains well below pre-war levels. The US-Iran military confrontation has escalated in recent days, with US forces destroying eight Iranian tankers in the Mideast Gulf and the Gulf of Oman since 5 September. The Pentagon cited attempted Iranian missile attacks on US warships as a justification for destroying Iranian tankers. "You're going to see a lot more" attacks on Iranian tankers, Trump said. Iran has responded with attacks on the US military base in Jordan and claimed that it has targeted multiple vessels in and around the strait of Hormuz. Two tankers were struck by unknown projectiles in separate attacks within the Mideast Gulf, maritime security organization UK Maritime Trade Operations reported on Wednesday. Iran's ability to target US warships and commercial vessels passing through Hormuz counters recent US claims of having decisively eliminated Tehran's military threat and of enabling an increase in oil exports through the critical waterway. Crude futures have settled higher in each of the past six sessions dating back to 31 August, with October Nymex WTI trading near $96/bl on Wednesday morning. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Hormuz traffic up to 16 vessels: Windward

09/09/26

Hormuz traffic up to 16 vessels: Windward

New York, 9 September (Argus) — Vessel traffic through the strait of Hormuz rose to 16 transits on Tuesday, largely on the Iranian controlled northern lane, data from maritime security firm Windward shows. Out of 16 vessel transits, ten crossed inbound, six on the Iranian controlled northern lane, and four using the US-assisted southern lane, Windward data shows. Of the six outbound vessels four took the northern lane and two took the southern lane. Vessel traffic was up slightly from 15 transits the day prior but stood around 12pc of pre-war levels. Expanded fighting around the strait at the start of the week is likely to discourage increases in vessel traffic in the near term. The US military on Tuesday carried out strikes that destroyed five Iranian oil tankers in the Mideast Gulf and Gulf of Oman while Iran retaliated with missiles targeting a US base in Jordan. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed it launched ballistic missile attacks against two US Navy destroyers and targeted multiple vessels in and around the strait of Hormuz. The UK Maritime Trade Organization reported two incidents on vessels on Wednesday, one 28 nautical miles (nm) southeast of Al-Faw, Iraq, and one 24 nm off of Port Rashid, UAE. By Charlotte Bawol Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Trump's Canada trade war hits familiar snags

09/09/26

Trump's Canada trade war hits familiar snags

Washington, 9 September (Argus) — President Donald Trump's administration has dropped punitive tariffs on imported Canadian cement, toilet paper and other products after acknowledging negative impacts on US consumers. But Trump's administration doubled down on confrontation with Ottawa, introducing an outright ban on imports of Canadian alcohol and motorcycles. Trump's conflicts with US foreign trade partners have frequently featured revisions to the lists of affected products after complaints from US consumers and industrial groups. Trump's punitive tariffs on Canada and Ottawa's countermeasures do not apply to energy, potash fertilizer or critical minerals. The US on 22 August began collecting new 50pc tariffs on about $28bn of Canadian imports, including cement, plywood and paper. Trump late on Tuesday ordered modifications to the list of affected products, eliminating the 50pc tariff on Canadian cement, rock salt and toilet paper beginning on 15 September. Trump instead ordered a 50pc tariff on a variety of other Canadian imports, including iron and steel columns and some aluminum byproducts, effective from 15 September. The prohibition on imports of Canadian alcoholic beverages and Canada-manufactured motorcycles will go into effect from 29 September. "Canada walked away from a near-final trade deal that offered better treatment than any other trading partner, and instead Canada chose to embark on senseless retaliation," US trade representative Jamieson Greer said. Canada's retaliatory tariffs on US steel and aluminum went into effect on Tuesday. Canadian prime minister Mark Carney has said that trade talks between the two countries collapsed because the US had made unreasonable demands. "They wanted us to become even more reliant on them, not less," he said on Tuesday. Carney said last week he would be ready to resume trade dialogue once the US "starts being serious". The latest trade escalation is taking place as Trump is set to convene an unusual, mid-term Republican party convention in Dallas, Texas, in a bid to shore up his party's fortunes ahead of the 3 November midterm elections. The event, which Republican party officials describe as a "Trump-a-palooza", aims to highlight Trump's economic and geopolitical accomplishments since returning to office last year. "This election comes down to one simple choice: lower costs, lower taxes, secure borders, and common sense," Republican National Committee chairman Joe Gruters said on 5 September. Less than two months before the elections, polls indicate that Democrats are likely to wrest control of at least one chamber, if not both, in part because of voters' concerns over rising inflation. The US inflation rate earlier this summer reached three-year highs, largely because Trump's war with Iran pushed up US retail fuel prices. US retail gasoline prices averaged $4.16/USG in the week ended on 7 September, up by around 40pc from late February, when the US and Isreal launched an attack on Iran. Higher tariffs have also contributed to an increase in US consumer prices. Higher inflation has undermined Trump's rationale for calling on the US Federal Reserve to slash its target interest rate. Trump last week threatened to introduce import bans on key US trade partners, including Canada and the EU, unless the Fed cuts interest rates. The US Supreme Court in February ruled that Trump's 2025 decisions to arbitrarily impose tariffs on any country had been illegal. But that ruling also pointed out that Congress explicitly gave the White House the legal power to impose an outright embargo on trade with any country. Trump since then has frequently touted that newly discovered prerogative, even though he has denounced the Supreme Court's tariff decision. The import ban on select Canadian products would mark the first exercise of that prerogative. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Asian refiners prioritise crude supply security: APPEC

09/09/26

Asian refiners prioritise crude supply security: APPEC

Singapore, 9 September (Argus) — Asian refiners are shifting crude procurement strategies from margin optimisation towards supply security and flexibility, as geopolitical disruptions expose the risks of relying heavily on a single supply region, industry executives said at the S&P Global Energy APPEC 2026 conference in Singapore today. The shift is changing how refiners value crude. Buyers are increasingly considering whether a cargo can be delivered reliably, processed efficiently, and remain economic after freight, insurance, and other risks, rather than assessing it solely on purchase price. "The best crude is not always the cheapest crude," said Taejin Kim, vice-president and head of the crude oil business office at SK Trading International. What matters is which crude can reach the firm more reliably, and whether those shipments will still be economic after considering freight and market risk, Kim said. Supply diversification has also consequently shifted from a competitive advantage to a procurement necessity, said Alejandro P. Gonzalez, commercial leader for supply trading and logistics at Vietnam's Nghi Son Refinery and Petrochemical. "Six months ago, crude procurement was to improve margins," Gonzalez said. "Now supply security is the main driver, with a bit of optimisation of margins taking second place." The shift has been particularly pronounced among Asian alternative crude refiners, which are seeking sources to reduce their exposure to individual supply regions, he said. Asian refining economics have historically centred on securing mainly medium-sour crude from the Middle East which aid in maximising margins. The Middle East will remain the region's core supplier, but refiners are increasingly turning to the Atlantic basin to reduce supply risks. "The Middle East remains the base, but Asian refineries are counting more on Atlantic basin barrels," said Norway's state-owned refiner Equinor vice-president and head of Asia-Pacific Desikan Sundararajan. US, Latin American and West African grades are becoming more regular components of Asian crude slates rather than remaining purely opportunistic arbitrage shipments. Canadian heavy crude is also attracting strong interest, supported by the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion and declining US west coast demand as regional refining capacity closes. Japanese refiners, for example, now source more than half of their crude from the US, while Taiyo Oil has increased its own US crude procurement by 20pc since the start of the war, the company's chief executive Takahiro Yamamoto said. Grade mismatch, margins But alternative grades can differ substantially from the medium-sour Middle Eastern crude around which many Asian refineries were designed. Lighter US crude and heavier Latin American or Canadian grades cannot necessarily provide direct replacements, potentially requiring refiners to blend multiple crudes while protecting yields and operational stability. Refining margins are also changing how buyers calculate the cost of supply disruptions. With strong double digit refinery margins observed for most oil products, the opportunity cost of a delayed or missed cargo can outweigh the premium paid for more reliable supply. A failure to secure replacement feedstock could force refiners to reduce runs and forgo substantial margins. Crude diversification also depends on whether a refinery has experience processing alternative grades. Processing compatibility is therefore also becoming a more important component of crude value. Grades that can be readily blended with other supplies provide greater operational flexibility when regular flows are disrupted. Strategic petroleum reserves can provide one to three months of supply during a disruption, but genuine diversification requires experience processing alternative grades under normal operating conditions, Yamamoto said. Refiners must understand how unfamiliar grades affect equipment, yields and plant operations before they are required during a crisis. Failure to test alternative supplies could leave plants exposed to operational problems or unplanned shutdowns if regular crude flows are disrupted. Refiners are also placing greater value on flexible delivery terms, transport arrangements, and destination clauses. A nominally more expensive cargo could become competitive if it avoids a high-risk route, arrives sooner, or can be redirected to other destinations as market conditions change. Executives said resilient procurement would require a combination of long-term contracts and spot purchases. Term agreements provide supply certainty, while spot purchases preserve flexibility when crude prices, freight costs and refining economics change. Asian refiners are increasingly considering multi-year agreements, although these must be balanced against spot-market flexibility and a wider range of supply origins, Sundararajan said. A growing number of bilateral trade agreements are also opening unconventional supply routes. Equinor's recent delivery of a Norwegian LNG cargo to India shows how new trade frameworks can support flows that were previously commercially uncompetitive, Sundararajan said. Regional governments must meanwhile decide whether to direct funding towards expanding strategic petroleum reserves, which provide an immediate buffer against disruptions, or supporting domestic upstream production to reduce longer-term import dependence. For Asian refiners, the value of a crude cargo increasingly depends on whether it can be delivered safely, processed efficiently, redirected if necessary and replaced when disrupted, the panel said. By Asill Bardh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US strikes Iranian tankers, Iran hits US base: Update

08/09/26

US strikes Iranian tankers, Iran hits US base: Update

Updates with details throughout. Washington, 8 September (Argus) — The US military on Tuesday carried out strikes that destroyed five Iranian oil tankers in the Mideast Gulf and Gulf of Oman while Iran retaliated with a barrage of missiles targeting a US base in Jordan. US forces destroyed the tanker Derya near Kharg Island, Iran's key oil loading hub, said Central Command (Centcom), which oversees the Middle East-based US forces. The US also destroyed the tankers Kaviz , Charminar , Horizon 1 and Riesco located in the Gulf of Oman, giving crew enough warning to abandon the vessels first, according to Centcom. US forces destroyed three Iranian tankers on 5 September. In both cases, Centcom cited Iranian missile attacks against US warships as a justification for the destruction of Iranian tankers. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said on Tuesday, following the latest US attacks, that it will retaliate with attacks on US bases across the region. IRGC also issued a warning to crews of all tankers located at ports or near the coast of Kuwait and Bahrain to evacuate vessels, according to Iranian news agency Tasnim, which is affiliated with IRGC. Alerts issued by the Jordanian defense authorities indicate that a US military base in that country became a target of Iranian missile attacks. So far, there has been no independent confirmation of any hits against tankers near Kuwait and Bahrain. Tehran threatened severe retaliation after the 5 September attacks. It said it struck 6 tankers across the Mideast Gulf, but there has been no independent confirmation of direct Iranian attacks on tankers since 5 September. Iran's ability to target US warships and commercial vessels passing through Hormuz counters recent US claims of having decisively eliminated Tehran's military threat and of enabling an increase in oil exports through the critical waterway. A number of energy sector facilities in the southern region of Saudi Arabia came under attack early Tuesday, according to the Saudi energy ministry, causing fires at a number of locations. Yemen's Houthi militant group has taken credit for those attacks. Iran will soon announce the establishment of a new and broader "prohibited zone" for vessels looking to cross the strait of Hormuz, Iran's Supreme National Security Council Mosen Rezaei said on Monday. Vessel traffic through the strait of Hormuz rose to 15 transits on Monday from 12 the previous day but still remained well below pre-war levels, data from maritime security Windward show. October Nymex WTI was up by 2pc to settle at $93.03/bl on Tuesday. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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