Atlantic coking coal: Steady on limited 3Q cargoes

The US coking coal market is holding steady as it enters the third quarter, with lower inventories and stronger selling positions balancing out ongoing uncertainty over Chinese import restrictions and the absence of Indian spot demand.

The daily Argus-assessed low volatile price ends the week unchanged at $107.50/t fob Hampton Roads, while the high-volatile A and high-volatile B prices stand flat at $113/t fob Hampton Roads and $107/t fob Hampton Roads, respectively.

There is little expectation of any serious Indian spot demand returning until September, given the ongoing monsoon season and the anticipated impact of extended lockdowns in urban areas, as Covid-19 infection rates in the country continue to climb. But some suggest the outlook is more optimistic for later this year. "We are still bullish on Indian demand. Obviously with the tough Covid-19 shutdown and now the monsoon, things are not great in the very near term, but there is still a lot of potential to flourish later in the quarter and certainly in the fourth quarter," said a US miner. The Steel Authority of India has booked a Panamax to ship 75,000t of coal on a US east coast-India voyage from 14-23 July, but this is likely to be a term contracted cargo.

Miners' hopes have rested increasingly on Brazil following a flurry of spot activity from the country's two largest mills, but some participants are sceptical. "I think we should be cautious to see these tenders as an indication of greater demand from Brazil; they mostly reflect the fact that Brazil's purchasing strategy has moved to quarterly tenders, they're not producing more steel," said a trader. "Brazilian mills are well-known for issuing tenders, not necessarily for buying coal, and while some of them are in a good financial position, others are not."

At least one large European mill has said it intends to only buy directly from miners, cutting out traders. "There is nothing trading in Europe at the moment — you can forget about July and August altogether," said the European division of a major global trading company.

Despite concerns over rising coronavirus infection rates in the US, particularly in the south, signs pointing to improving domestic demand later this year have emerged this week. US Steel will reopen a steel mill in Indiana after the 4 July holiday weekend, nearly two months after it was idled because of coronavirus-related demand shocks. Earlier this week, General Motors' SUV plants returned to pre-Covid levels of three shifts of production. All of GM's truck and SUV plants will skip the traditional two-week summer shutdown, producing vehicles to fill dealers' lots.

While the strength of the Capesize market had supported Panamax rates in the second half of June, this week's strong activity on fixtures and shortening tonnages have supported Panamax rates in the Atlantic. The US east coast-to-Rotterdam rate went up by 50¢ this week to $11/t.