French farmers aim to cut nitrogen needs in 2026, 2027

The sharp rise in nitrogen fertilizer prices recorded since the start of the Iran war has inflated theoretical production costs for French farmers for the 2026 and 2027 harvests. But the impact of high nitrogen fertilizer prices will not be felt evenly across French farms.

A portion of French farmers are likely to lower nitrogen use on wheat areas, favour planting sunflower seeds over corn, and reduce nitrogen inputs on corn, in light of shrinking margins given the surge in nitrogen fertilizer prices, an Argus survey carried out between 24 April and 5 May of over 450 French farmers found.

Rising 2026 production costs are region dependent

Farmers who purchased fertilizers earlier in the marketing year avoided much of the potential cost hike. At the national level, 75pc of respondents had covered all their nitrogen fertilizer requirements before the sharp price rise at the end of February. But strong regional disparities emerged.

In the major winter wheat-producing regions of Hauts de France and Grand Est, 75pc and 84pc of farmers surveyed had fully covered their nitrogen fertilizer needs respectively by the end of February. By contrast, only 58pc of respondents in Nouvelle-Aquitaine — a major corn-producing region in the southwest — had completed their nitrogen fertilizer purchases by the same date, leaving them more exposed to rising fertilizer prices afterwards.

Reducing nitrogen use to mitigate shrinking margins

Intentions to reduce nitrogen applications vary depending on the region and the crop, while some farmers opt for crop rotations instead. Despite these disparities, clear demand destruction for nitrogen fertilizers is under way in France.

Some 39pc of respondents who produce corn were considering reducing nitrogen fertilizer applications at the national level. Corn producers reported lower nitrogen fertilizer purchases by late February, leaving them more exposed to the recent fertilizer price increases.

For wheat, 16pc of farmers surveyed were set to cancel the third nitrogen fertiliser application, while another 37pc were considering this option depending on weather conditions. Of those, most probably went ahead with a third application, given renewed rainfall across France in early May. The remaining 47pc intended to apply nitrogen fertilizers as usual. Nitrogen fertilizer reductions were more likely in the southwest, with up to 60pc of farmers in Nouvelle-Aquitaine weighing up this option, compared with around 35% of farmers in Grand Est.

Reduced nitrogen applications on wheat has the potential to lead to lower protein levels in the upcoming harvest. The recent weakness of milling wheat premiums over feed wheat is also set to contribute to farmers’ decisions.

Switching to less nitrogen-intensive crops

Another tool available to farmers to cut nitrogen fertilizer costs is to opt for less nitrogen-intensive crops. Some farmers have already opted to plant more sunflower seeds, at the expense of corn, according to the results of the survey. French sunflower seed areas are set to increase by 12.3pc to 770,000 hectares in 2026, while corn areas are set to decline by 11.7pc to 1.41mn hectares, based on Argus estimates.

First planting intentions for the 2027 crop

Weak production margins may lead some to make similar decisions for the 2027 crop.

More than 80pc of surveyed farmers were more concerned about fertiliser prices for the 2027 harvest than for the 2026 harvest. While decisions on the 2027 crop rotation are still some way off, 31pc said they may reduce soft wheat areas and 21pc corn areas. This would boost planting of other crops, with 26pc looking at increasing rapeseed areas, 28pc pulse crops, and 27pc looking at reverting land to fallow.

Carryover stocks to reduce rising nitrogen price exposure

That said, some farmers who reduce nitrogen applications this year may go into the next season with stocks of nitrogen fertilizers purchased before the price hikes. Of those looking at reductions in nitrogen fertilizer use this year, 19pc had already purchased nitrogen fertilizers and planned to store it for the next season. But this still leaves the vast majority of French farmer respondents exposed to high production costs.

Author: Antoine Guyon, Senior Editorial Analyst, Agriculture