Indian Steel Association calls out met coal volatility

The Indian Steel Association (ISA) has called on the government to look at the volatility in metallurgical coal prices, which it deems to be the main cause of global steel prices increasing over the past year.

"An oligopolist competition exists in the import of coking coal," the ISA said on 23 May, reacting to India's imposition of export duties on steel exports effective from 22 May. "It has been highly volatile. Coking coal prices peaked to $670/t in March 2022 and it is currently at $525/t."

"The impact of coking coal, iron ore, ferroalloys and fluxes, etc., alone have caused a sharp increase in input cost from $225 to $250. It is important to note that steel prices have started correcting globally while costs remain elevated," the ISA added.

The resilience of seaborne premium hard low-vol fob Australia coking coal prices, in the face of lower global steel prices and macroeconomic headwinds, has squeezed margins for metallurgical coke makers in India and stoked working capital concerns among steel mills.

Steel prices have fallen in US and Europe with shortages in pig iron supply to the region — following Russia's invasion of Ukraine — offset by weak downstream demand, increased availability of alternative raw materials and competitive Asian steel flows to the region. Chinese steel prices are down on Covid-19 lockdowns in the country, which have also pushed sellers to the exports market.

Market participants have cited tight Australian supply, record-high thermal coal prices and sanctions on Russia as the key reasons behind the support for metallurgical coal. The spread between the CSR 62 fob China coke price and cfr India premium hard low-vol coking coal price stands at $86.78/t month-to-date, compared with a spread of $273.02/t in May last year. Chinese met coke prices had surged last year on strong steel output in the first half.

"We have cut our production by 50pc as the current coking coal prices make it unviable for us to continue operations," a coke maker from India, with a production capacity of over 1mn t/yr, said.

Current fob China offers stood at around $540 fob for 60-62 CSR coke, a Chinese coke maker said.

"We are staring at a negative quarter if steel does not improve," said a second coke maker from India, adding that their coke plant was practically shut.

A trader from India highlighted the working capital constraints on steel mills at the current coking coal prices. "Our customers cannot arrange capital to pay for coal priced at $500/t. How will they participate in the spot market?" he said, adding that mills would find prices around $350-400/t workable.

Domestic India HRC prices stand at around 69,000 rupees/t ($890/t), up by 5pc on the year. The Argus cfr India premium low-vol index stood at $540/t on 23 May, up by 232pc from the previous year.

Pricing in a spot

Constrained supply from Australia has contributed to limited participation from mills in spot trade, while China's refusal to buy Australian coals has failed to free spot tonnages amid supply disruptions.

"In the absence of price discovery through end-user buying, it is difficult to say if the current price levels can be justified based on the supply-demand balance," a trader in Singapore said. Argus does not weight trades based on counterparties in its index methodology.

Supply shortages were undeniable but the illiquid spot market and volatility in daily prices have eroded confidence in the spot pricing mechanisms, a steel mill source said. "So far we had been able to pass on the costs downstream, but it is becoming increasingly difficult as coking coal prices refuse to budge despite the wider ferrous complex weakness," the steel maker said. "There are black box aspects to pricing and that makes us uncomfortable," he added.

India's steel production rose by 6.2pc on the year to 10.1mn t last month, according to World Steel Association, with January-April output up by 6.5pc on the year to 42.3mn t. The imposition of the 15pc tax on steel exports will limit Indian steel mills' ability to sell overseas and is likely to weigh on domestic steel prices.

Spot deals in the seaborne premium hard coking coal market are typically concluded through bilateral negotiations or on trading platforms.

The spread across a premium low-vol bid/offer stood at $100/t on the Global Coal trading platform on 24 May, while a Branded June laycan cargo attracted a bid/offer spread of $105/t. A June cargo of pulverised coal injection (PCI) stood at $515/t, indicating a $10 premium over the offer on a June cargo of premium hard mid-vol coking coal. PCI has historically traded at a discount to premium hard coals.

By Deepali Sharma