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Brazil increases 2025 coffee crop outlook
Brazil increases 2025 coffee crop outlook
Sao Paulo, 4 December (Argus) — Brazil is set to produce its third-largest coffee crop ever this year, despite it being a low productivity year in the crop cycle, according to national supply company Conab's last crop estimate for this cycle. Brazil will produce almost 56.5mn 60kg bags of coffee this year, up from the previous forecast released in September of 55.2mn bags. The upward revision was driven by higher average national productivity, reflecting a better performance of Conilon coffee crops, one of the two major types of coffee grown in Brazil. This is above the 51.8mn bags first projected for the season and surpasses the 2024 crop, which produced 54.2mn bags. Droughts, irregularly distributed rainfall and high temperatures severely hampered yields in the prior cycle, despite initial expectations for a high-producing one. Coffee cycles occur biennially in Brazil, with larger volumes produced in alternating years. During the lower producing years — known as negative years — plants replenish their nutritional reserves, leading to reduced output. The 2025 cycle is considered a negative year, with the current estimate representing an all-time high for a negative year, topping the record registered in the 2023 crop, when Brazil produced nearly 55.1mn bags. It is expected to rank as the third-largest in the nation's history, only behind the positive cycles of 2020 and 2018, which produced 63.1mn bags and 61.7mn bags, respectively. Conab revised the outlook for the current cycle based on an increase in expected yields to 30.4 bags/hectare (ha) from 29.7 bags/ha in the prior forecast. That is up by 5.5pc from 28.8 bags/ha in the positive 2024 year and compares with 29.4 bags/ha in the negative 2023 cycle. Brazil grows two types of coffee: the higher-grade Arabica coffee and the Conilon grade coffee, also referred to as Robusta. These varieties have different taste, caffeine content and productivity levels, as well as distinct producing regions and harvesting calendars. Arabica coffee production is forecast at around 35.8mn bags, ahead of the nearly 35.2mn bags projected in September, but down from 39.6mn bags in 2024. There has been significant vegetative recovery in crops, mainly in southeastern Minas Gerais state, Brazil's largest producer, which contributed to an increase compared to the previous estimate, according to Conab. Yields rose to 24.1 bags/ha from 23.7 bags/ha in September. That is behind the 26.2 bags/ha in 2024. Conilon coffee output should reach an overall record of 20.8mn bags, up from 20.1mn bags in the previous outlook following the consistent weather conditions in major producing states Espirito Santo and Bahia that promoted good conditions for areas and resulted in high yields. That compares with 14.6mn bags in the prior cycle. Yields are up to 55.9 bags/ha, from 53.8 bags/ha estimated in September and 39.2 bags/ha yielded in 2024. Conab continues to expect the total area allocated to both coffee grades to reach approximately 2.25mn ha this cycle, 0.9pc above on the year. The area set aside for coffee is split between space for production and new crops. Areas allocated to crops in production fell by 1.2pc on the year to nearly 1.86mn ha. New areas account for around 396,428ha, up by 12pc, as is usual for negative years. Coffee exports fall on year Brazil exported 34.2mn bags of coffee in January-October, around 17.8pc below the total shipped in the same period a year before, according to trade ministry Mdic data. This reduction in volume exported in the first ten months of 2025 is mainly because of limited domestic stocks at the beginning of the year, following a record shipment of 50.5mn bags in 2024. Tariffs imposed by the US from April onwards, a major buyer of Brazilian coffee, also contributed to the reduction in exports. Brazil exported coffee to 150 countries in the first ten months of 2025. The US and Germany accounted for the largest share of shipments, with 14.1pc and 14pc, respectively. Italy received 8.1pc of exports, Belgium and Japan 6.3pc each. By João Petrini Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Former Brazilian president Bolsonaro arrested
Former Brazilian president Bolsonaro arrested
Belem, 22 November (Argus) — Brazil's federal police have detained former president Jair Bolsonaro for violating court orders during his house arrest and to prevent "an attempted escape", according to a supreme court (STF) ruling. STF said that it found "very serious evidence" that Bolsonaro — who was under strict house arrest following his conviction on charges of attempting a coup and sentenced to jail for 27 years and three months — was trying to escape. This included information that Bolsonaro would break his electronic ankle monitor and try to escape during "confusion caused by a demonstration called by his son". Bolsonaro's son, senator Flavio Bolsonaro, posted a video on social media on Friday calling on the former president's supporters to perform a vigil outside of his home to pray for Bolsonaro's health and "liberty in Brazil". STF's decision also notes that Bolsonaro did not comply with orders to not use social media during his house arrest. The detainment is a "preventative measure" and does not count towards his sentencing, according to the court. STF said its decision to detain Bolsonaro was also motivated by three congressmen and Bolsonaro allies who fled the country: Alexandro Ramagem, Carla Zambelli and Eduardo Bolsonaro, the former president's son. Ramagem was also convicted of an attempted coup and sentenced to 16 years in jail, but fled to the US, according to STF. Zambelli was convicted of illegally carrying a weapon, unlawful coercion, as well as hacking and inserting false documents into Brazil's national council of justice. She fled to Italy, where she was detained and is awaiting extradition. Eduardo Bolsonaro will face trial before STF for coercion during the course of legal proceedings during his father's trial. The prosecutor general's office accused him of promoting "serious sanctions" against Brazil to dissuade STF from convicting his father for the coup plot. Eduardo, who has been in the US since March, met with US president Donald Trump and was a vocal supporter of Trump imposing 50pc tariffs on Brazilian products . Trump mentioned the trial against the former president as one of the reasons for the tariffs, but some have since been lifted . Jair Bolsonaro's defense attorney will appeal the arrest, saying that the former president's health is "delicate" and that "his imprisonment could put his life at risk." Appeals to serve his sentence under house arrest — also based on Bolsonaro's health — have so far not come to fruition. The former president has been hospitalized several times in the last year due to complications following a stabbing he suffered while campaigning in 2018. By Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Trump removes 40pc tariffs on Brazil’s beef, coffee
Trump removes 40pc tariffs on Brazil’s beef, coffee
Sao Paulo, 21 November (Argus) — The US removed 40pc tariffs on imports of Brazilian beef, coffee and fruits imposed in August, the White House said on Thursday. The new executive order goes into effect retroactively on "goods entered for consumption, or withdrawn from warehouse for consumption" after 12:01am ET on 13 November — the same date that Brazil's foreign affairs minister Mauro Vieira and the US secretary of state Marco Rubio met in Washington, DC, to discuss tariffs and bilateral deals, the Brazilian foreign affairs ministry (MRE) said. In the executive order, President Donald Trump mentioned his phone call with Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on 6 October and recommendations from officials to lift additional tariffs on agricultural products as "there has been initial progress in negotiations with the Government of Brazil." Earlier this week Trump lifted a 10pc tariff imposed on the same products in April, reducing tariffs on orange juice to zero. But tariffs on coffee and beef were still high and unreasonable, Brazil's vice president and trade ministry Geraldo Alckmin said. Lula praised the lower tariffs in an online statement and said he remains optimistic about further negotiations with Trump. Additional US tariffs remain in place on imports of Brazilian fertilizers, minerals, fossil fuels and oil products, according to MRE. The Brazilian association of beef exporters Abiec lauded the executive order as a reinforcement to global trade stability and market competitiveness. Monthly Brazilian beef exports to the US have halved in August-October from a year earlier under a 76pc tariff on out-of-quota cargoes. By João Curi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US lifts tariffs on most fertilizer imports: Update
US lifts tariffs on most fertilizer imports: Update
Adds detail on the lack of full exemption status for ammonia and recent Nola urea futures trade Houston, 14 November (Argus) — US president Donald Trump said today key nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers, among other agricultural products , are exempt from US import tariffs that were implemented in April, but ammonia's status under the tariff modification remains unclear. After just seven months in place, tariffs that have curbed imports to US shores and elevated the price of fertilizers have been lifted, according to a modification to Executive Order 14257 issued by the White House today. Fertilizers exempted from the tariffs include urea, ammonium nitrate, UAN, ammonium sulfate, TSP, DAP and MAP. Ammonia could qualify for tariff exemptions, but eligibility will be determined on a case-by-case basis by the secretary of commerce and the US Trade Representative, depending on the terms of existing or ongoing trade negotiations with each country. Potassium fertilizers like MOP were already exempt from import tariffs. The modification to the tariffs went into effect for goods imported starting 13 November. January Nola urea futures traded down roughly $30/st late Friday afternoon to $360/st fob following the announcement, but otherwise activity was largely subdued given the modifications' proximity to the weekend. Fertilizer values will likely begin to price-in the change in trade policy starting Monday. Most fertilizer exporting countries, except for Russia , faced tariff rates of 10-15pc, with some suppliers even facing up to 30pc tariffs, resulting in major shifts in fertilizer trade. Exporters have avoided the US, favoring alternative destinations for their supply. But trade flows could normalize now that fertilizers are now tariff-free. The tariffs have contributed to eroding fertilizer affordability relative to crop prices in the US this year, driving fertilizer prices to multi-year highs and significantly curbing demand for nutrients across the country. Lower cost imports could help unwind farmer reluctance to enter the market leading up to the spring season in 2026. The announcement should provide importers and distributors with some certainty headed into next spring after months of being kept on edge by shifting US trade policy. By Calder Jett and Sneha Kumar Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US high court questions Trump's tariff powers
US high court questions Trump's tariff powers
Washington, 5 November (Argus) — President Donald Trump's legal rationale for tariffs targeting major US trading partners ran into a skeptical review during a Supreme Court hearing on Wednesday, including from the justices appointed by him. The high court heard an appeal of two decisions by lower courts that found Trump's administration has overstepped its authority by placing emergency tariffs on most goods imported into the US. Trump has cited a 1977 law called the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which previous presidents only used to impose targeted economic sanctions, to impose tariffs on all US trading partners. IEEPA omits references to tariffs. But the Trump administration justifies imposing them by citing two words in the text of the law — that "regulation" of "importation" is among the possible measures that the president can take to address an economic emergency. Tariffs are a foreign policy issue, which the Constitution delegates to the executive branch, solicitor general John Sauer argued on behalf of the administration. Tariffs are not a tax but a regulatory tool, Sauer said. The revenue from tariffs is incidental to the exercise of Trump's regulatory power in foreign policy domain, Sauer said. Both liberal and conservative justices challenged those arguments. Trump's reliance on a law never before used to impose tariffs raises the "major questions doctrine", said Chief Justice John Roberts, a conservative. Roberts was referring to recent Supreme Court decisions, which state that it is up to Congress to decide prominent questions of economic significance. The president has a constitutionally granted authority over foreign policy but in this case, he exercised it by imposing "taxes on Americans, and that has always been the core power of Congress," Roberts said. The possibility that future presidents would use tariffs to advance unrelated policy priorities featured prominently in questions from the bench. "Could the president impose a 50pc tariff on gas-powered cars and auto parts to deal with the 'unusual and extraordinary threat' from abroad of climate change?", conservative justice Neil Gorsuch asked. Sauer acknowledged that the scenario was "highly likely", albeit not under Trump, as "this administration would say 'that's a hoax.'" The legal argument advanced by Trump means that former president Joe Biden could have declared a climate emergency, imposed tariffs and then used the tariff revenue for his student loan relief program, liberal justice Sonia Sotomayor said. "That's all Biden would have had to do with any of his programs." Gorsuch also challenged the government's argument that Congress can at any time remove the power of the president to impose tariffs under emergency authorities. "Congress, as a practical matter, can't get this power back once it handed it over," Gorsuch said. An extension of presidential powers can be enacted with a simple majority but has to be removed by a veto-proof majority, Gorsuch said. "It's a one-way ratchet toward the gradual but continual accretion of power in the executive branch and away from the people's elected representatives." The legal cases before the court pit the Trump administration against a group of private companies and, separately, a coalition of states, who argued that IEEPA does not explicitly authorize Trump to use the tariffs he imposed. Conservative justice Brett Kavanaugh indicated that he would be open to defending the presidential authority to impose tariffs in at least some specific emergency situations, citing Trump's imposition of a 25pc tariff on imports from India in a bid to stop Indian purchases of Russian oil. Next steps The Supreme Court could take weeks, if not months, to make a decision. Trump's preferred outcome is for the high court to overturn the lower courts' decisions and keep the tariffs he imposed in place. "With a Victory, we have tremendous, but fair, Financial and National Security," Trump posted ahead of the hearing. "Without it, we are virtually defenseless against other Countries who have, for years, taken advantage of us." If the Supreme Court decides to keep the lower courts' decisions in place, Trump's administration would have to immediately lift the so-called "fentanyl" tariffs affecting Canada, Mexico and China and the so-called "reciprocal" tariffs of 10pc and higher, in place since 5 April on nearly every US trading partner. The courts' decisions will not affect tariffs Trump imposed on imports of steel, aluminum, cars and auto parts, as the administration has used other, unequivocal legal trade authorities. The Supreme Court would separately have to decide what to do about the revenue collected from emergency tariffs. One of the lower courts ordered that the defendants who challenged tariffs in courts must receive refunds, while another court ordered that all importers must receive refunds. The US government's tariff revenue ran at about $30bn/month as of August, according to an estimate by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US Fed cuts target rate, December cut unclear: Update
US Fed cuts target rate, December cut unclear: Update
Adds comments from Fed chairman Jerome Powell, other data. Houston, 29 October (Argus) — US Federal Reserve policymakers cut their target interest rate today by a quarter point, the second reduction of the year, but Fed chair Jerome Powell said a previously telegraphed December cut was "far from" a foregone decision. The Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on Wednesday cut the federal funds rate to 3.75-4pc, following its first cut of the year in early September, also by a quarter point, after recent and revised employment data signaled the labor market was weakening rapidly. "With downside risks to employment increased in recent month, the balance of risk has shifted," Fed chair Jerome Powell said after the meeting. "Accordingly, we judged appropriate at this meeting to take another step toward a more neutral policy stance." But Powell said another rate cut during the Fed's next meeting in December was not a sure thing, citing "strongly differing views" in the FOMC discussions, which included one governor recently nominated by President Donald Trump. "Policy is not on a preset course." Powell also said the Fed would conclude its balance sheet runoff — known as Quantitative Tightening (QT) — by 1 December. This process involves the Fed reducing its holdings of government securities to decrease excess liquidity, another tool to prop up interest rates. The Fed in September penciled in two more quarter point cuts this year, with the last one in December, and only one next year. Even with the government shutdown cutting off most official federal data, Powell said the Fed's economists are able to continue tracking the economy through state-level weekly jobless claims data and private sector data on firings and hirings, consumer spending and confidence. He said the labor data showed "a gradual cooling." Regarding US import tariffs' impacts on inflation, he said they were "pushing up prices in goods resulting in higher overall inflation" but that a "reasonable base case is that the effects on inflation will be short-lived, a one-time shift in the price level." Still, he added it was "possible that the inflationary effects could, instead, be more persistent, and that is a risk to be assessed and managed." Powell called the current economic environment "pretty challenging". Still, he noted that, at 4.3pc, unemployment was low and the economy is "growing at close to 2pc". The FOMC cut its target rate by 100 basis points over three meetings in late 2024, bringing it down from a near two decade high as inflation was slowing from Covid-19 reopening highs in mid 2022. The CME's FedWatch tool on Wednesday showed 68.4pc odds of another quarter point cut in December, compared with 86.9pc odds on Tuesday. Powell has come under unrelenting pressure from President Donald Trump, who has claimed he was a "numbskull," among other terms, for being slow to resume cuts. He threatened to fire Powell, whose term in office ends next May, but backed away from that threat to avoid tanking financial markets. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Trump cancels trade talks with Canada
Trump cancels trade talks with Canada
Singapore, 24 October (Argus) — US president Donald Trump said he had ended all trade talks with Canada in protest over a political advertisement that criticised tariffs. "ALL TRADE NEGOTIATIONS WITH CANADA ARE HEREBY TERMINATED," Trump said in a post on his social media platform late on 23 October. Trump alleged that the advertisement, featuring former president Ronald Reagan speaking negatively about tariffs, was an attempt to interfere with a pending decision by the US Supreme Court on the legality of tariffs. Canada was among the first targets of Trump's tariffs once he returned to office. US imports from Canada are subject to a 35pc tariff, with separate duties on imported cars, auto parts, steel and aluminium. In practice, imports from Canada are taxed at the lowest rates among the top US trading partners, because the bulk of trade is exempted from tariffs under the terms of the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement. Energy commodities are also exempted from Trump's tariffs. The Canadian government said earlier this month that it was hoping to reach quick trade deals over steel, aluminium and energy after a meeting between Trump and Canadian prime minister Mark Carney. The US Supreme Court has scheduled a hearing for 5 November to review rulings by lower courts on whether Trump overstepped his authority when placing emergency tariffs on most imports into the US. By Kevin Foster Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
IMF upgrades global economic outlook
IMF upgrades global economic outlook
Washington, 14 October (Argus) — The IMF is upgrading its global economic growth forecast for 2025 and 2026, but the economic rationale for the upward revision preceded the most recent episode of US-China trade tensions. The IMF, in its latest World Economic Outlook released Tuesday, forecasts the global economy will grow by 3.2pc in 2025 and 3.1pc in 2026. That compares with the 3pc growth for 2025 that the IMF was expecting just three months ago. IMF forecasts are used by many economists, including OECD watchdog the IEA, to model oil demand projections. "The increase in tariffs and its effect has been smaller than expected so far," IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said. The IMF forecast is based on data available as of late September. In recent days, trade tensions flared up again between the US and China. The possibility of further escalation in trade tensions across the globe is part of the IMF outlook. "The US statutory effective tariff rate remains high, and trade tensions continue to flare up with no guarantee yet on lasting trade agreements," Gourinchas said. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Brazil increases 2025 coffee crop outlook
Brazil increases 2025 coffee crop outlook
Sao Paulo, 4 December (Argus) — Brazil is set to produce its third-largest coffee crop ever this year, despite it being a low productivity year in the crop cycle, according to national supply company Conab's last crop estimate for this cycle. Brazil will produce almost 56.5mn 60kg bags of coffee this year, up from the previous forecast released in September of 55.2mn bags. The upward revision was driven by higher average national productivity, reflecting a better performance of Conilon coffee crops, one of the two major types of coffee grown in Brazil. This is above the 51.8mn bags first projected for the season and surpasses the 2024 crop, which produced 54.2mn bags. Droughts, irregularly distributed rainfall and high temperatures severely hampered yields in the prior cycle, despite initial expectations for a high-producing one. Coffee cycles occur biennially in Brazil, with larger volumes produced in alternating years. During the lower producing years — known as negative years — plants replenish their nutritional reserves, leading to reduced output. The 2025 cycle is considered a negative year, with the current estimate representing an all-time high for a negative year, topping the record registered in the 2023 crop, when Brazil produced nearly 55.1mn bags. It is expected to rank as the third-largest in the nation's history, only behind the positive cycles of 2020 and 2018, which produced 63.1mn bags and 61.7mn bags, respectively. Conab revised the outlook for the current cycle based on an increase in expected yields to 30.4 bags/hectare (ha) from 29.7 bags/ha in the prior forecast. That is up by 5.5pc from 28.8 bags/ha in the positive 2024 year and compares with 29.4 bags/ha in the negative 2023 cycle. Brazil grows two types of coffee: the higher-grade Arabica coffee and the Conilon grade coffee, also referred to as Robusta. These varieties have different taste, caffeine content and productivity levels, as well as distinct producing regions and harvesting calendars. Arabica coffee production is forecast at around 35.8mn bags, ahead of the nearly 35.2mn bags projected in September, but down from 39.6mn bags in 2024. There has been significant vegetative recovery in crops, mainly in southeastern Minas Gerais state, Brazil's largest producer, which contributed to an increase compared to the previous estimate, according to Conab. Yields rose to 24.1 bags/ha from 23.7 bags/ha in September. That is behind the 26.2 bags/ha in 2024. Conilon coffee output should reach an overall record of 20.8mn bags, up from 20.1mn bags in the previous outlook following the consistent weather conditions in major producing states Espirito Santo and Bahia that promoted good conditions for areas and resulted in high yields. That compares with 14.6mn bags in the prior cycle. Yields are up to 55.9 bags/ha, from 53.8 bags/ha estimated in September and 39.2 bags/ha yielded in 2024. Conab continues to expect the total area allocated to both coffee grades to reach approximately 2.25mn ha this cycle, 0.9pc above on the year. The area set aside for coffee is split between space for production and new crops. Areas allocated to crops in production fell by 1.2pc on the year to nearly 1.86mn ha. New areas account for around 396,428ha, up by 12pc, as is usual for negative years. Coffee exports fall on year Brazil exported 34.2mn bags of coffee in January-October, around 17.8pc below the total shipped in the same period a year before, according to trade ministry Mdic data. This reduction in volume exported in the first ten months of 2025 is mainly because of limited domestic stocks at the beginning of the year, following a record shipment of 50.5mn bags in 2024. Tariffs imposed by the US from April onwards, a major buyer of Brazilian coffee, also contributed to the reduction in exports. Brazil exported coffee to 150 countries in the first ten months of 2025. The US and Germany accounted for the largest share of shipments, with 14.1pc and 14pc, respectively. Italy received 8.1pc of exports, Belgium and Japan 6.3pc each. By João Petrini Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US lifts tariffs on most fertilizer imports: Update
US lifts tariffs on most fertilizer imports: Update
Adds detail on the lack of full exemption status for ammonia and recent Nola urea futures trade Houston, 14 November (Argus) — US president Donald Trump said today key nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers, among other agricultural products , are exempt from US import tariffs that were implemented in April, but ammonia's status under the tariff modification remains unclear. After just seven months in place, tariffs that have curbed imports to US shores and elevated the price of fertilizers have been lifted, according to a modification to Executive Order 14257 issued by the White House today. Fertilizers exempted from the tariffs include urea, ammonium nitrate, UAN, ammonium sulfate, TSP, DAP and MAP. Ammonia could qualify for tariff exemptions, but eligibility will be determined on a case-by-case basis by the secretary of commerce and the US Trade Representative, depending on the terms of existing or ongoing trade negotiations with each country. Potassium fertilizers like MOP were already exempt from import tariffs. The modification to the tariffs went into effect for goods imported starting 13 November. January Nola urea futures traded down roughly $30/st late Friday afternoon to $360/st fob following the announcement, but otherwise activity was largely subdued given the modifications' proximity to the weekend. Fertilizer values will likely begin to price-in the change in trade policy starting Monday. Most fertilizer exporting countries, except for Russia , faced tariff rates of 10-15pc, with some suppliers even facing up to 30pc tariffs, resulting in major shifts in fertilizer trade. Exporters have avoided the US, favoring alternative destinations for their supply. But trade flows could normalize now that fertilizers are now tariff-free. The tariffs have contributed to eroding fertilizer affordability relative to crop prices in the US this year, driving fertilizer prices to multi-year highs and significantly curbing demand for nutrients across the country. Lower cost imports could help unwind farmer reluctance to enter the market leading up to the spring season in 2026. The announcement should provide importers and distributors with some certainty headed into next spring after months of being kept on edge by shifting US trade policy. By Calder Jett and Sneha Kumar Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US lifts tariffs on fertilizer imports
US lifts tariffs on fertilizer imports
Houston, 14 November (Argus) — US president Donald Trump said today key nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers, among other agricultural products, are exempt from US import tariffs that were implemented in April. After just seven months in place, tariffs that have curbed imports to US shores and elevated the price of key fertilizers have been lifted, according to a modification to Executive Order 14257 issued by the White House today. Fertilizers exempted from the tariffs include ammonia, urea, ammonium nitrate, UAN, ammonium sulfate, DAP and MAP. Potassium fertilizers like MOP were already exempt from import tariffs. The modification to the tariffs will go into effect for goods imported starting 13 November. Most fertilizer exporting countries, except for Russia , faced tariff rates of 10-15pc, with some suppliers even facing up to 30pc tariffs, resulting in major shifts in fertilizer trade. Exporters have avoided the US, favoring alternative destinations for their supply. But trade flows could normalize now that fertilizers are now tariff-free. The tariffs have contributed to eroding fertilizer affordability relative to crop prices in the US this year, driving fertilizer prices to multi-year highs and significantly curbing demand for nutrients across the country. Lower cost imports could help unwind farmer reluctance to enter the market leading up to the spring season in 2026. By Calder Jett and Sneha Kumar Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Brazil starts process for reciprocating US tariffs
Brazil starts process for reciprocating US tariffs
Sao Paulo, 29 August (Argus) — Brazil has started the process of developing reciprocal tariffs against the US, vice-president and trade minister Geraldo Alckmin said, a move designed to speed up negotiations. Brazil's foreign trade chamber, Camex, has 30 days to determine how the 50pc tariffs the US imposed on Brazil effective 6 August can be countered under the country's economic reciprocity law approved in April. The law authorizes retaliation through goods, services and intellectual property. There is no time frame for the process of imposing reciprocal tariffs after the initial 30-day deliberation period. "Brazil will not give up on its sovereignty," Alckmin said this week during a visit to Mexico, where he signed two cooperation agreements on biofuels with Mexico as well as a letter of intent on agriculture. "I hope that [this process] will help accelerate dialogue and negotiations [with the US], which is what president Lula has been asking us to do." The move comes weeks after President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva had said that Brazil would not reciprocate the tariffs but seek to negotiate. Brazil has been working to counter the tariffs' effect on its economy by supporting companies in efforts to find new markets , and by approving a line of credit to small businesses hurt by the measures. Earlier this month, Brazil asked the World Trade Organization to intervene in the dispute over tariffs. The US typically runs a trade surplus for goods and services with Brazil, which has totaled more than $400bn over the last 15 years, finance minister Fernando Haddad said in a televised interview in early July. In the first half of 2025 the US' trade surplus with Brazil reached $2.3bn, a more than seven-fold increase from a year before, according to US-Brazil chamber of commerce Amcham. By Maria Frazatto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Brazil increases 2025 coffee crop outlook
Brazil increases 2025 coffee crop outlook
Sao Paulo, 4 December (Argus) — Brazil is set to produce its third-largest coffee crop ever this year, despite it being a low productivity year in the crop cycle, according to national supply company Conab's last crop estimate for this cycle. Brazil will produce almost 56.5mn 60kg bags of coffee this year, up from the previous forecast released in September of 55.2mn bags. The upward revision was driven by higher average national productivity, reflecting a better performance of Conilon coffee crops, one of the two major types of coffee grown in Brazil. This is above the 51.8mn bags first projected for the season and surpasses the 2024 crop, which produced 54.2mn bags. Droughts, irregularly distributed rainfall and high temperatures severely hampered yields in the prior cycle, despite initial expectations for a high-producing one. Coffee cycles occur biennially in Brazil, with larger volumes produced in alternating years. During the lower producing years — known as negative years — plants replenish their nutritional reserves, leading to reduced output. The 2025 cycle is considered a negative year, with the current estimate representing an all-time high for a negative year, topping the record registered in the 2023 crop, when Brazil produced nearly 55.1mn bags. It is expected to rank as the third-largest in the nation's history, only behind the positive cycles of 2020 and 2018, which produced 63.1mn bags and 61.7mn bags, respectively. Conab revised the outlook for the current cycle based on an increase in expected yields to 30.4 bags/hectare (ha) from 29.7 bags/ha in the prior forecast. That is up by 5.5pc from 28.8 bags/ha in the positive 2024 year and compares with 29.4 bags/ha in the negative 2023 cycle. Brazil grows two types of coffee: the higher-grade Arabica coffee and the Conilon grade coffee, also referred to as Robusta. These varieties have different taste, caffeine content and productivity levels, as well as distinct producing regions and harvesting calendars. Arabica coffee production is forecast at around 35.8mn bags, ahead of the nearly 35.2mn bags projected in September, but down from 39.6mn bags in 2024. There has been significant vegetative recovery in crops, mainly in southeastern Minas Gerais state, Brazil's largest producer, which contributed to an increase compared to the previous estimate, according to Conab. Yields rose to 24.1 bags/ha from 23.7 bags/ha in September. That is behind the 26.2 bags/ha in 2024. Conilon coffee output should reach an overall record of 20.8mn bags, up from 20.1mn bags in the previous outlook following the consistent weather conditions in major producing states Espirito Santo and Bahia that promoted good conditions for areas and resulted in high yields. That compares with 14.6mn bags in the prior cycle. Yields are up to 55.9 bags/ha, from 53.8 bags/ha estimated in September and 39.2 bags/ha yielded in 2024. Conab continues to expect the total area allocated to both coffee grades to reach approximately 2.25mn ha this cycle, 0.9pc above on the year. The area set aside for coffee is split between space for production and new crops. Areas allocated to crops in production fell by 1.2pc on the year to nearly 1.86mn ha. New areas account for around 396,428ha, up by 12pc, as is usual for negative years. Coffee exports fall on year Brazil exported 34.2mn bags of coffee in January-October, around 17.8pc below the total shipped in the same period a year before, according to trade ministry Mdic data. This reduction in volume exported in the first ten months of 2025 is mainly because of limited domestic stocks at the beginning of the year, following a record shipment of 50.5mn bags in 2024. Tariffs imposed by the US from April onwards, a major buyer of Brazilian coffee, also contributed to the reduction in exports. Brazil exported coffee to 150 countries in the first ten months of 2025. The US and Germany accounted for the largest share of shipments, with 14.1pc and 14pc, respectively. Italy received 8.1pc of exports, Belgium and Japan 6.3pc each. By João Petrini Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Former Brazilian president Bolsonaro arrested
Former Brazilian president Bolsonaro arrested
Belem, 22 November (Argus) — Brazil's federal police have detained former president Jair Bolsonaro for violating court orders during his house arrest and to prevent "an attempted escape", according to a supreme court (STF) ruling. STF said that it found "very serious evidence" that Bolsonaro — who was under strict house arrest following his conviction on charges of attempting a coup and sentenced to jail for 27 years and three months — was trying to escape. This included information that Bolsonaro would break his electronic ankle monitor and try to escape during "confusion caused by a demonstration called by his son". Bolsonaro's son, senator Flavio Bolsonaro, posted a video on social media on Friday calling on the former president's supporters to perform a vigil outside of his home to pray for Bolsonaro's health and "liberty in Brazil". STF's decision also notes that Bolsonaro did not comply with orders to not use social media during his house arrest. The detainment is a "preventative measure" and does not count towards his sentencing, according to the court. STF said its decision to detain Bolsonaro was also motivated by three congressmen and Bolsonaro allies who fled the country: Alexandro Ramagem, Carla Zambelli and Eduardo Bolsonaro, the former president's son. Ramagem was also convicted of an attempted coup and sentenced to 16 years in jail, but fled to the US, according to STF. Zambelli was convicted of illegally carrying a weapon, unlawful coercion, as well as hacking and inserting false documents into Brazil's national council of justice. She fled to Italy, where she was detained and is awaiting extradition. Eduardo Bolsonaro will face trial before STF for coercion during the course of legal proceedings during his father's trial. The prosecutor general's office accused him of promoting "serious sanctions" against Brazil to dissuade STF from convicting his father for the coup plot. Eduardo, who has been in the US since March, met with US president Donald Trump and was a vocal supporter of Trump imposing 50pc tariffs on Brazilian products . Trump mentioned the trial against the former president as one of the reasons for the tariffs, but some have since been lifted . Jair Bolsonaro's defense attorney will appeal the arrest, saying that the former president's health is "delicate" and that "his imprisonment could put his life at risk." Appeals to serve his sentence under house arrest — also based on Bolsonaro's health — have so far not come to fruition. The former president has been hospitalized several times in the last year due to complications following a stabbing he suffered while campaigning in 2018. By Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Trump removes 40pc tariffs on Brazil’s beef, coffee
Trump removes 40pc tariffs on Brazil’s beef, coffee
Sao Paulo, 21 November (Argus) — The US removed 40pc tariffs on imports of Brazilian beef, coffee and fruits imposed in August, the White House said on Thursday. The new executive order goes into effect retroactively on "goods entered for consumption, or withdrawn from warehouse for consumption" after 12:01am ET on 13 November — the same date that Brazil's foreign affairs minister Mauro Vieira and the US secretary of state Marco Rubio met in Washington, DC, to discuss tariffs and bilateral deals, the Brazilian foreign affairs ministry (MRE) said. In the executive order, President Donald Trump mentioned his phone call with Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on 6 October and recommendations from officials to lift additional tariffs on agricultural products as "there has been initial progress in negotiations with the Government of Brazil." Earlier this week Trump lifted a 10pc tariff imposed on the same products in April, reducing tariffs on orange juice to zero. But tariffs on coffee and beef were still high and unreasonable, Brazil's vice president and trade ministry Geraldo Alckmin said. Lula praised the lower tariffs in an online statement and said he remains optimistic about further negotiations with Trump. Additional US tariffs remain in place on imports of Brazilian fertilizers, minerals, fossil fuels and oil products, according to MRE. The Brazilian association of beef exporters Abiec lauded the executive order as a reinforcement to global trade stability and market competitiveness. Monthly Brazilian beef exports to the US have halved in August-October from a year earlier under a 76pc tariff on out-of-quota cargoes. By João Curi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Trump trims Brazil beef, coffee, fruit tariffs by 10pc
Trump trims Brazil beef, coffee, fruit tariffs by 10pc
Sao Paulo, 14 November (Argus) — US president Donald Trump lifted 10pc tariffs on imports of Brazilian beef, coffee and fruits imposed in April, but 40pc tariffs imposed in August and other quota-tied fees remain in effect. The executive order goes into effect retroactively on "goods entered for consumption, or withdrawn from warehouse for consumption" after 12:01am ET on 13 November. Brazil is a major supplier of these products to the US. Brazil's foreign affairs minister Mauro Vieira and the US secretary of state Marco Rubio have discussed tariffs in recent weeks . Starting in early August, a combination of tariffs equaling 76pc were imposed on US imports of Brazilian beef, cutting those volumes in half . Australia currently fills most US needs for beef, which are subject to a 10pc tariff. While Brazil had a 50pc tariff on in-quota shipments and a 76.4pc tariff on out-of-quota shipments, that has now been reduced by 10 percentage points. US beef imports are forecast at 2.433mn t in 2025, up 16pc from 2024, before easing slightly to 2.245mn t in 2026, according to the US Department of Agriculture. But margins remain tight, squeezed by the volatile tariffs and shifting consumer behavior, importers and exporters said. Tariffs also reduced shipments of Brazilian coffee and orange juice , other key products exported to the US. By João Curi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Tariffs burden new mill projects: US steelmakers
Tariffs burden new mill projects: US steelmakers
Pittsburgh, 29 October (Argus) — The White House's tariff regime is largely meant to support US manufacturing, but snowballing import taxes could have the opposite effect by jeopardizing new steel mill construction projects, according to industry comments in an ongoing trade hearing process. The US steel industry has been supportive of 50pc tariffs on steel imports that President Donald Trump imposed under section 232 in June because the policy has curbed imports and allowed major domestic steel companies to ship record volumes this year. But steelmakers looking to upgrade or build new plants face higher costs for importing steel machinery and equipment, according to public comments in the US Commerce Department's investigation into the national security impacts of machinery and robotics imports that started last month. The agency said the investigation could lead to tariffs on industrial stamping and pressing machines, turning and milling machines, grinding equipment, and machine tools for cutting and welding, although it has not shared the specific products or import codes that could face import restrictions. US steel companies, industrial equipment manufacturers and metal recyclers warned of rising costs from potential tariffs on industrial machinery in public comments released by the Commerce Department on 22 October. Pacific Steel Group is building a reinforcing bar plant in the Mojave Desert in California that is scheduled to come online in 2027. It would be the first new steel mill in California in more than 50 years, and will use specialized electric arc furnace equipment made by Italian manufacturer Danieli. "As there are no domestic alternatives that meet Pacific Steel's needs, the project is entirely dependent on these imports to move forward," the company said in public comments. Pacific Steel said it supports the current 50pc steel tariffs. But the company acknowledged that import taxes have driven the cost up of building the steel mill. "These added expenses place significant financial strain on the project and risk delaying or even jeopardizing the successful completion of an American steel plant," the company said. Pacific Steel's comments reflect a similar sentiment shared by Arkansas steelmaker Hybar last month. Hybar has applied for permits to build a second reinforcing bar mill in Arkansas, but tariffs on steel-making equipment could make the project cost prohibitive. The company will make a final decision on whether to proceed with the project early next year, Hybar [told Argus ](https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2746740) on 28 October. US Steel, now owned by Japanese firm Nippon Steel, also voiced concern over the industrial machinery and robotics tariff investigation. The company plans to build a new hot-strip mill at its Mon Valley Works in Pennsylvania, install a new $100mn slag recycler at its Edgar Thompson plant in that state, and spend $200mn on upgrades to its hot-strip mill in Gary, Indiana. "US Steel will need to rely on imports given the limited production of the major equipment necessary to construct new steel mills and modernize existing facilities," the company told the Commerce Department. Details are scarce on the exact products affected by the tariff investigation into industrial machinery and robotics, US Steel noted. The company has identified just two possible domestic manufacturers of those products: Machine Concepts and Reel Power Industrial. By James Marshall Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Trump cancels trade talks with Canada
Trump cancels trade talks with Canada
Singapore, 24 October (Argus) — US president Donald Trump said he had ended all trade talks with Canada in protest over a political advertisement that criticised tariffs. "ALL TRADE NEGOTIATIONS WITH CANADA ARE HEREBY TERMINATED," Trump said in a post on his social media platform late on 23 October. Trump alleged that the advertisement, featuring former president Ronald Reagan speaking negatively about tariffs, was an attempt to interfere with a pending decision by the US Supreme Court on the legality of tariffs. Canada was among the first targets of Trump's tariffs once he returned to office. US imports from Canada are subject to a 35pc tariff, with separate duties on imported cars, auto parts, steel and aluminium. In practice, imports from Canada are taxed at the lowest rates among the top US trading partners, because the bulk of trade is exempted from tariffs under the terms of the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement. Energy commodities are also exempted from Trump's tariffs. The Canadian government said earlier this month that it was hoping to reach quick trade deals over steel, aluminium and energy after a meeting between Trump and Canadian prime minister Mark Carney. The US Supreme Court has scheduled a hearing for 5 November to review rulings by lower courts on whether Trump overstepped his authority when placing emergency tariffs on most imports into the US. By Kevin Foster Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
EV demand low into early 2026: GM
EV demand low into early 2026: GM
Houston, 21 October (Argus) — US automaker General Motors (GM) expects a sharp drop in electric vehicle (EV) demand starting in October, with the trend likely to continue into early 2026. GM will focus on boosting EV profitability by cutting material costs through larger modules and new battery chemistries, chief financial officer Paul Jacobson said today in the company's third quarter earnings call. The automaker delivered over 66,000 EVs in the US in the third quarter, capturing 16.5pc market share. Still, GM recorded a $1.6bn charge in the quarter as it shifts its Orion assembly plant in Michigan from EVs to internal combustion engine vehicles. GM also said it woud end production of its BrightDrop electric delivery van because of slower-than-expected growth in that market. The company said it reduced its 2025 tariff exposure by $500mn to $3.5bn-4.5bn, following tariff relief measures announced by President Donald Trump on 17 October to impose tariffs on some vehicle imports . The company said it is minimally impacted because of years of effort to secure supply chain resiliency by investments in North America. "We saw it from a magnet perspective and Lithium Americas, another strong investment that we have made," chair and chief executive Mary Barra said. GM posted a profit of $1.3bn in the third quarter, down from $3bn a year earlier. By Carol Luk Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Molson Coors cuts US workforce in restructuring
Molson Coors cuts US workforce in restructuring
Houston, 20 October (Argus) — Beer maker Molson Coors plans to reduce its salaried US workforce by 9pc, after tariff-related pressures and changing consumer preferences have eroded profits for the Illinois-based company. The company said on Monday it expects to cut around 400 positions by the end of December, with "hundreds" of those coming from unfilled roles that Molson Coors opened earlier this year. The corporate restructuring will allow the company to concentrate on its beer portfolio and expand into other product categories, including premium mixers, non-alcoholic beverages and energy drinks. "We've made progress on our transformation journey, but given the environment, we must transform even faster," chief executive Rahul Goyal said. "We must move with urgency and make bolder decisions." Moors Colson cut its full-year earnings guidance in August, now expecting sales to fall by 3-4pc from 2024 compared to the "low single-digit decline" it had forecast in May. Production volumes through the first six months of 2025 were down by 6.4pc to 3.6bn liters on the year, heavily pressured by weaker consumption in the US — its largest market. Input costs also have weighed on the company's revenue, with Molson Coors citing sharp gains in the Midwest premium for primary aluminum because of US import tariffs on the lightweight metal that now stand at 50pc. The company expects a full-year impact of $40mn-55mn from higher costs. By Alex Nicoll Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
