Latest news on trade tariffs
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Viewpoint: US tariffs altering UBC buying in ’26
Viewpoint: US tariffs altering UBC buying in ’26
Houston, 24 December (Argus) — Consumers of used beverage cans (UBCs) likely will seek to purchase more of the scrap grade on a spot basis in 2026, minimizing their exposure to long-term supply agreements after buying spreads widened to historical lows this year on the back of a record-high regional premium. Sell-side sources estimate that most rolling mills reduced their volumes under contract between 10-20pc for next year compared to 2025 levels, reflecting a shift in consumers' procurement strategies after US tariffs on aluminum imports disrupted price mechanisms against which UBCs and other grades of scrap are traded. "All mills directionally did less contract pounds. That showed up everywhere," a broker said about 2026 negotiations. "They all want more flexibility to buy spot." Rolling mills locked in annual contracts for 2025 at tight discounts to the Midwest transaction price (MWTP), with sources saying that most deals were struck on either side of 80pc within a narrow range. Supply availability of UBCs was constrained at the end of 2024, prompting consumers to accept brokers' and dealers' higher offers to ensure stable inflows of scrap. But US trade policies and White House threats against major trading partners provoked a surge in the Midwest P1020 premium, which led to a sharp rise in the MWTP and an influx of UBC imports from overseas suppliers, with shipments setting a one-month high of 30,082 metric tonnes (t) in May as importers sought to take advantage of higher prices in the US, customs data showed. The US imported an average 16,230t of the scrap every month from 2023-2024, according to customs data. The regional upcharge climbed by more than 270pc from the start of the year to an all-time high of 88¢/lb as of 10 December, Argusdata showed. The MWTP rose by 56pc to $2.1665/lb in the same timeframe, with gains in the premium far outpacing increases in the London Metal Exchange (LME) cash settlement — the other component that comprises the MWTP. Buying spreads, as a result, dropped from an average of 80.8pc in January to an average of 45.3pc in November — reaching a low of 44.4pc on 29 October — after supply tightness eased and consumers widened discounts, saying underlying fundamentals did not support paying more for UBCs just because intrinsic values had risen, which several viewed as artificial increases. That sentiment from buyers has been reflected in outright prices for UBCs, which fell by a smaller margin — down by 13¢/lb, or by 12pc, to 98.5¢/lb at the end of November — compared to buying spreads. Still, that divergence in discounts led to a significant discrepancy between what rolling mills had to pay brokers and at what levels they could purchase UBCs in the spot market. This compelled consumers to take on more volumes from the trade or under shorter-term supply deals in 2026 in efforts to avoid a repeat of 2025. Consumers have already entered the spot market for significant tonnage for January, with one rolling mill having already closed out its next-month position and another procuring north of 40 truckloads so far. Buyers at the consumer level say they want to purchase more UBCs on the spot market to help fill the balance of their needs despite lower contract volumes. Sources noted that most rolling mills' overall consumption forecasts for 2026 are relatively stable based on downstream demand for beverage-can sheet. Adding to upward pressure on UBC demand are Section 232 import tariffs, which currently stand at 50pc. Consumers have sought to utilize more scrap for their melts to help offset elevated costs for P1020 and other grades of primary aluminum — a trend that most expect to persist next year. Beverage-can sheet can utilize a higher percentage — as high as 90pc, Argus understands — of scrap as an input compared to other flat-rolled products, precluding the need for rolling mills to use primary aluminum in their melts. Sources have signaled that first-quarter contracts with rolling mills have been locked in between 51-54pc of the MWTP, with buying spreads for annual deals that have been concluded coming in between 55-62pc broadly — depending on volume and the quality of UBCs. With those discounts, buyers effectively have priced in expectations that US tariffs on primary aluminum will persist throughout the year. Some market participants are optimistic that negotiations on a new US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement will result in a tariff carveout for aluminum from top US supplier Canada. Still, there have been no concrete indications that such a reduction, which likely would spur a drop in the Midwest premium, will come. Challenges to 2026 consumption While most consumers' indicated demand levels have not changed significantly, suppliers and brokers are monitoring developments with two major rolling mills to see how certain constraints may impact industrywide consumption for UBCs in 2026. Aluminum-roller Novelis' hot-rolling mill outage at its facility in Oswego, New York, which primarily produces flat-rolled products for the automotive industry, has forced the company and its domestic competitors to scramble to meet automakers' needs. Those efforts have included shifting manufacturing lines away from other end markets to focus on producing automotive-grade sheet or hot-rolled coil, also known as "hot band". Sources also noted that new entrant Aluminum Dynamics' (ADI) demand for UBCs may not be as significant for next year as market participants originally thought when the company first announced its 650,000 metric tonne (t)/yr plant in Columbus, Mississippi. ADI planned to build satellite facilities in Arizona and Mexico to supply Columbus, with those sites recycling UBCs to melt into slab for production of beverage-can sheet. The Arizona plant has yet to be built, with the company contending with locals who have been fighting its construction, while the Mexico facility is operational, but products from the site have been subject to import tariffs, sources said. By Alex Nicoll Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US to roll out $12bn of farmer aid
US to roll out $12bn of farmer aid
Houston, 8 December (Argus) — US president Donald Trump today announced $12bn of aid payments to farmers to help offset the financial burdens of high-cost inputs and low crop prices. Trump today during a roundtable meeting at the White House said that he will leverage revenues collected from tariffs to secure $12bn worth of funding for farm assistance. Of the full aid package, $11bn will be used for the farmer bridge assistance (FBA) program, which provides broad relief to growers of corn, soybeans, wheat and other crops and grains, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). Farmers who qualify for the FBA program can expect to receive payments by 28 February, with commodity-specific rates expected to be released by the end of this month. The remaining $1bn of bridge payments are reserved for commodities not covered under the FBA program such as specialty crops and sugar, according to the USDA. But details and a timeline of these payments were not immediately released. After the White House meeting, the USDA clarified that the $12bn in funds would be authorized under the Commodity Credit Corporation Charter (CCC) Act and administered by the Farm Service Agency. How funds authorized by the CCC are tied to tariff revenue was not immediately clear. The Argus NPK fertilizer affordability index has recovered from its lows earlier in the year, but remains at around 0.89 on 4 December, indicating lower crop prices relative to input costs. Front-month CBOT corn prices have increased by about 20¢/bushel since 1 October to $4.36/bushel on 8 December, while granular urea prices at Nola have declined by $46/st on a midpoint basis to $355.50/st fob Nola over the same period, according to Argus data. Market participants expect most of the aid to go toward paying down debt farmers have accumulated while operating on thin margins in recent years. The removal of fertilizer tariffs drove significant declines in phosphate, urea, and UAN prices, slightly easing input costs for growers. USDA expects 95mn acres of corn to be planted next year, so clearing debt could open the door for more borrowing and spring spending, depending on when these payouts arrive. The push to bolster domestic production to reduce reliance on fertilizer imports remains a key effort by the Trump administration to improve farmer profitability. Trump said he would even impose "very severe tariffs" on Canada if it was necessary to expand US production, but that would be a departure from administration trade policy that has so far exempted Canadian fertilizer imports, especially potash, from tariffs. Trump said he is willing to use tariff revenue again should farmers find they need additional relief. Calls for farmer aid have come from the Trump administration since as early as September this year, but were stalled by the partial shutdown of the US government and questions about how aid could be funded. By Sneha Kumar and Chris Mullins Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Brazil increases 2025 coffee crop outlook
Brazil increases 2025 coffee crop outlook
Sao Paulo, 4 December (Argus) — Brazil is set to produce its third-largest coffee crop ever this year, despite it being a low productivity year in the crop cycle, according to national supply company Conab's last crop estimate for this cycle. Brazil will produce almost 56.5mn 60kg bags of coffee this year, up from the previous forecast released in September of 55.2mn bags. The upward revision was driven by higher average national productivity, reflecting a better performance of Conilon coffee crops, one of the two major types of coffee grown in Brazil. This is above the 51.8mn bags first projected for the season and surpasses the 2024 crop, which produced 54.2mn bags. Droughts, irregularly distributed rainfall and high temperatures severely hampered yields in the prior cycle, despite initial expectations for a high-producing one. Coffee cycles occur biennially in Brazil, with larger volumes produced in alternating years. During the lower producing years — known as negative years — plants replenish their nutritional reserves, leading to reduced output. The 2025 cycle is considered a negative year, with the current estimate representing an all-time high for a negative year, topping the record registered in the 2023 crop, when Brazil produced nearly 55.1mn bags. It is expected to rank as the third-largest in the nation's history, only behind the positive cycles of 2020 and 2018, which produced 63.1mn bags and 61.7mn bags, respectively. Conab revised the outlook for the current cycle based on an increase in expected yields to 30.4 bags/hectare (ha) from 29.7 bags/ha in the prior forecast. That is up by 5.5pc from 28.8 bags/ha in the positive 2024 year and compares with 29.4 bags/ha in the negative 2023 cycle. Brazil grows two types of coffee: the higher-grade Arabica coffee and the Conilon grade coffee, also referred to as Robusta. These varieties have different taste, caffeine content and productivity levels, as well as distinct producing regions and harvesting calendars. Arabica coffee production is forecast at around 35.8mn bags, ahead of the nearly 35.2mn bags projected in September, but down from 39.6mn bags in 2024. There has been significant vegetative recovery in crops, mainly in southeastern Minas Gerais state, Brazil's largest producer, which contributed to an increase compared to the previous estimate, according to Conab. Yields rose to 24.1 bags/ha from 23.7 bags/ha in September. That is behind the 26.2 bags/ha in 2024. Conilon coffee output should reach an overall record of 20.8mn bags, up from 20.1mn bags in the previous outlook following the consistent weather conditions in major producing states Espirito Santo and Bahia that promoted good conditions for areas and resulted in high yields. That compares with 14.6mn bags in the prior cycle. Yields are up to 55.9 bags/ha, from 53.8 bags/ha estimated in September and 39.2 bags/ha yielded in 2024. Conab continues to expect the total area allocated to both coffee grades to reach approximately 2.25mn ha this cycle, 0.9pc above on the year. The area set aside for coffee is split between space for production and new crops. Areas allocated to crops in production fell by 1.2pc on the year to nearly 1.86mn ha. New areas account for around 396,428ha, up by 12pc, as is usual for negative years. Coffee exports fall on year Brazil exported 34.2mn bags of coffee in January-October, around 17.8pc below the total shipped in the same period a year before, according to trade ministry Mdic data. This reduction in volume exported in the first ten months of 2025 is mainly because of limited domestic stocks at the beginning of the year, following a record shipment of 50.5mn bags in 2024. Tariffs imposed by the US from April onwards, a major buyer of Brazilian coffee, also contributed to the reduction in exports. Brazil exported coffee to 150 countries in the first ten months of 2025. The US and Germany accounted for the largest share of shipments, with 14.1pc and 14pc, respectively. Italy received 8.1pc of exports, Belgium and Japan 6.3pc each. By João Petrini Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Former Brazilian president Bolsonaro arrested
Former Brazilian president Bolsonaro arrested
Belem, 22 November (Argus) — Brazil's federal police have detained former president Jair Bolsonaro for violating court orders during his house arrest and to prevent "an attempted escape", according to a supreme court (STF) ruling. STF said that it found "very serious evidence" that Bolsonaro — who was under strict house arrest following his conviction on charges of attempting a coup and sentenced to jail for 27 years and three months — was trying to escape. This included information that Bolsonaro would break his electronic ankle monitor and try to escape during "confusion caused by a demonstration called by his son". Bolsonaro's son, senator Flavio Bolsonaro, posted a video on social media on Friday calling on the former president's supporters to perform a vigil outside of his home to pray for Bolsonaro's health and "liberty in Brazil". STF's decision also notes that Bolsonaro did not comply with orders to not use social media during his house arrest. The detainment is a "preventative measure" and does not count towards his sentencing, according to the court. STF said its decision to detain Bolsonaro was also motivated by three congressmen and Bolsonaro allies who fled the country: Alexandro Ramagem, Carla Zambelli and Eduardo Bolsonaro, the former president's son. Ramagem was also convicted of an attempted coup and sentenced to 16 years in jail, but fled to the US, according to STF. Zambelli was convicted of illegally carrying a weapon, unlawful coercion, as well as hacking and inserting false documents into Brazil's national council of justice. She fled to Italy, where she was detained and is awaiting extradition. Eduardo Bolsonaro will face trial before STF for coercion during the course of legal proceedings during his father's trial. The prosecutor general's office accused him of promoting "serious sanctions" against Brazil to dissuade STF from convicting his father for the coup plot. Eduardo, who has been in the US since March, met with US president Donald Trump and was a vocal supporter of Trump imposing 50pc tariffs on Brazilian products . Trump mentioned the trial against the former president as one of the reasons for the tariffs, but some have since been lifted . Jair Bolsonaro's defense attorney will appeal the arrest, saying that the former president's health is "delicate" and that "his imprisonment could put his life at risk." Appeals to serve his sentence under house arrest — also based on Bolsonaro's health — have so far not come to fruition. The former president has been hospitalized several times in the last year due to complications following a stabbing he suffered while campaigning in 2018. By Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US high court questions Trump's tariff powers
US high court questions Trump's tariff powers
Washington, 5 November (Argus) — President Donald Trump's legal rationale for tariffs targeting major US trading partners ran into a skeptical review during a Supreme Court hearing on Wednesday, including from the justices appointed by him. The high court heard an appeal of two decisions by lower courts that found Trump's administration has overstepped its authority by placing emergency tariffs on most goods imported into the US. Trump has cited a 1977 law called the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which previous presidents only used to impose targeted economic sanctions, to impose tariffs on all US trading partners. IEEPA omits references to tariffs. But the Trump administration justifies imposing them by citing two words in the text of the law — that "regulation" of "importation" is among the possible measures that the president can take to address an economic emergency. Tariffs are a foreign policy issue, which the Constitution delegates to the executive branch, solicitor general John Sauer argued on behalf of the administration. Tariffs are not a tax but a regulatory tool, Sauer said. The revenue from tariffs is incidental to the exercise of Trump's regulatory power in foreign policy domain, Sauer said. Both liberal and conservative justices challenged those arguments. Trump's reliance on a law never before used to impose tariffs raises the "major questions doctrine", said Chief Justice John Roberts, a conservative. Roberts was referring to recent Supreme Court decisions, which state that it is up to Congress to decide prominent questions of economic significance. The president has a constitutionally granted authority over foreign policy but in this case, he exercised it by imposing "taxes on Americans, and that has always been the core power of Congress," Roberts said. The possibility that future presidents would use tariffs to advance unrelated policy priorities featured prominently in questions from the bench. "Could the president impose a 50pc tariff on gas-powered cars and auto parts to deal with the 'unusual and extraordinary threat' from abroad of climate change?", conservative justice Neil Gorsuch asked. Sauer acknowledged that the scenario was "highly likely", albeit not under Trump, as "this administration would say 'that's a hoax.'" The legal argument advanced by Trump means that former president Joe Biden could have declared a climate emergency, imposed tariffs and then used the tariff revenue for his student loan relief program, liberal justice Sonia Sotomayor said. "That's all Biden would have had to do with any of his programs." Gorsuch also challenged the government's argument that Congress can at any time remove the power of the president to impose tariffs under emergency authorities. "Congress, as a practical matter, can't get this power back once it handed it over," Gorsuch said. An extension of presidential powers can be enacted with a simple majority but has to be removed by a veto-proof majority, Gorsuch said. "It's a one-way ratchet toward the gradual but continual accretion of power in the executive branch and away from the people's elected representatives." The legal cases before the court pit the Trump administration against a group of private companies and, separately, a coalition of states, who argued that IEEPA does not explicitly authorize Trump to use the tariffs he imposed. Conservative justice Brett Kavanaugh indicated that he would be open to defending the presidential authority to impose tariffs in at least some specific emergency situations, citing Trump's imposition of a 25pc tariff on imports from India in a bid to stop Indian purchases of Russian oil. Next steps The Supreme Court could take weeks, if not months, to make a decision. Trump's preferred outcome is for the high court to overturn the lower courts' decisions and keep the tariffs he imposed in place. "With a Victory, we have tremendous, but fair, Financial and National Security," Trump posted ahead of the hearing. "Without it, we are virtually defenseless against other Countries who have, for years, taken advantage of us." If the Supreme Court decides to keep the lower courts' decisions in place, Trump's administration would have to immediately lift the so-called "fentanyl" tariffs affecting Canada, Mexico and China and the so-called "reciprocal" tariffs of 10pc and higher, in place since 5 April on nearly every US trading partner. The courts' decisions will not affect tariffs Trump imposed on imports of steel, aluminum, cars and auto parts, as the administration has used other, unequivocal legal trade authorities. The Supreme Court would separately have to decide what to do about the revenue collected from emergency tariffs. One of the lower courts ordered that the defendants who challenged tariffs in courts must receive refunds, while another court ordered that all importers must receive refunds. The US government's tariff revenue ran at about $30bn/month as of August, according to an estimate by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US Fed cuts target rate, December cut unclear: Update
US Fed cuts target rate, December cut unclear: Update
Adds comments from Fed chairman Jerome Powell, other data. Houston, 29 October (Argus) — US Federal Reserve policymakers cut their target interest rate today by a quarter point, the second reduction of the year, but Fed chair Jerome Powell said a previously telegraphed December cut was "far from" a foregone decision. The Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on Wednesday cut the federal funds rate to 3.75-4pc, following its first cut of the year in early September, also by a quarter point, after recent and revised employment data signaled the labor market was weakening rapidly. "With downside risks to employment increased in recent month, the balance of risk has shifted," Fed chair Jerome Powell said after the meeting. "Accordingly, we judged appropriate at this meeting to take another step toward a more neutral policy stance." But Powell said another rate cut during the Fed's next meeting in December was not a sure thing, citing "strongly differing views" in the FOMC discussions, which included one governor recently nominated by President Donald Trump. "Policy is not on a preset course." Powell also said the Fed would conclude its balance sheet runoff — known as Quantitative Tightening (QT) — by 1 December. This process involves the Fed reducing its holdings of government securities to decrease excess liquidity, another tool to prop up interest rates. The Fed in September penciled in two more quarter point cuts this year, with the last one in December, and only one next year. Even with the government shutdown cutting off most official federal data, Powell said the Fed's economists are able to continue tracking the economy through state-level weekly jobless claims data and private sector data on firings and hirings, consumer spending and confidence. He said the labor data showed "a gradual cooling." Regarding US import tariffs' impacts on inflation, he said they were "pushing up prices in goods resulting in higher overall inflation" but that a "reasonable base case is that the effects on inflation will be short-lived, a one-time shift in the price level." Still, he added it was "possible that the inflationary effects could, instead, be more persistent, and that is a risk to be assessed and managed." Powell called the current economic environment "pretty challenging". Still, he noted that, at 4.3pc, unemployment was low and the economy is "growing at close to 2pc". The FOMC cut its target rate by 100 basis points over three meetings in late 2024, bringing it down from a near two decade high as inflation was slowing from Covid-19 reopening highs in mid 2022. The CME's FedWatch tool on Wednesday showed 68.4pc odds of another quarter point cut in December, compared with 86.9pc odds on Tuesday. Powell has come under unrelenting pressure from President Donald Trump, who has claimed he was a "numbskull," among other terms, for being slow to resume cuts. He threatened to fire Powell, whose term in office ends next May, but backed away from that threat to avoid tanking financial markets. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Trump cancels trade talks with Canada
Trump cancels trade talks with Canada
Singapore, 24 October (Argus) — US president Donald Trump said he had ended all trade talks with Canada in protest over a political advertisement that criticised tariffs. "ALL TRADE NEGOTIATIONS WITH CANADA ARE HEREBY TERMINATED," Trump said in a post on his social media platform late on 23 October. Trump alleged that the advertisement, featuring former president Ronald Reagan speaking negatively about tariffs, was an attempt to interfere with a pending decision by the US Supreme Court on the legality of tariffs. Canada was among the first targets of Trump's tariffs once he returned to office. US imports from Canada are subject to a 35pc tariff, with separate duties on imported cars, auto parts, steel and aluminium. In practice, imports from Canada are taxed at the lowest rates among the top US trading partners, because the bulk of trade is exempted from tariffs under the terms of the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement. Energy commodities are also exempted from Trump's tariffs. The Canadian government said earlier this month that it was hoping to reach quick trade deals over steel, aluminium and energy after a meeting between Trump and Canadian prime minister Mark Carney. The US Supreme Court has scheduled a hearing for 5 November to review rulings by lower courts on whether Trump overstepped his authority when placing emergency tariffs on most imports into the US. By Kevin Foster Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
IMF upgrades global economic outlook
IMF upgrades global economic outlook
Washington, 14 October (Argus) — The IMF is upgrading its global economic growth forecast for 2025 and 2026, but the economic rationale for the upward revision preceded the most recent episode of US-China trade tensions. The IMF, in its latest World Economic Outlook released Tuesday, forecasts the global economy will grow by 3.2pc in 2025 and 3.1pc in 2026. That compares with the 3pc growth for 2025 that the IMF was expecting just three months ago. IMF forecasts are used by many economists, including OECD watchdog the IEA, to model oil demand projections. "The increase in tariffs and its effect has been smaller than expected so far," IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said. The IMF forecast is based on data available as of late September. In recent days, trade tensions flared up again between the US and China. The possibility of further escalation in trade tensions across the globe is part of the IMF outlook. "The US statutory effective tariff rate remains high, and trade tensions continue to flare up with no guarantee yet on lasting trade agreements," Gourinchas said. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Renewables co-processing now 'less attractive': P66
Renewables co-processing now 'less attractive': P66
Houston, 10 October (Argus) — Major changes in US trade and renewables policy this year have made investing in more biofuel capacity uneconomical for now, according to US independent refiner Phillips 66. The company was considering co-processing renewable feedstocks at three of its oil refineries, but the current structure of US tariffs and 45Z biofuel tax credits "... and all the things that go into play with that, has made it less attractive to pursue that right now," Phillips 66 executive vice president of refining Richard Harbison told Argus this week in an interview at the company's headquarters. Phillips 66 is always looking to address and reduce its carbon intensity and will continue to look at opportunities to do that, Harbison said, but the company must still make money for shareholders. The 45Z clean fuel production credit, crucial for biofuel refinery production margins, offers a sliding scale of subsidies for alternative fuels based on their greenhouse gas emissions. A major tax and energy bill President Donald Trump signed into law this summer extended the incentive another two years but shifted around credit eligibility. New rules kicking off next year mean crop-based fuels will earn larger subsidies than they do this year, and fuels made from feedstocks outside North America will be ineligible. Refiners have taken issue with the changes, saying that they will increase feedstock and fuel costs. They had pushed lawmakers to change the law to allow fuels made from co-processing to qualify for 45Z too, but they remain ineligible. Phillips 66, which finished converting its Rodeo, California, refinery to a 52,000 b/d renewable diesel plant last year, said in February it was considering producing renewables at its 258,500 b/d Bayway refinery in Linden, New Jersey, if more states adopt low carbon fuel standards. The company also asked the Foreign-Trade Zones Board to approve changes to its existing approvals for oil products produced at Bayway and two other refineries — the 264,000 b/d Lake Charles refinery in Westlake, Louisiana, and its 265,000 b/d Sweeny refinery in Old Ocean, Texas — to include various fuels derived from both petroleum and biogenic feedstocks. But the changes in 45Z and the US' surge in import tariffs this year could threaten the profitability of such projects. All three of those Phillips 66 refineries are located in foreign-trade zones that allow companies to avoid tariffs on foreign inputs for products that are ultimately exported abroad. But most renewable fuels produced in the US are sold domestically, meaning the higher tariffs put in place this year on the imported feedstock would be in effect and make the process less economic. Renewable diesel producers like Phillips 66 still also face the long-running problem of unclear program details and missed regulatory deadlines. Former president Joe Biden's administration missed a January deadline to finalize regulations around qualifying and now President Donald Trump's administration has signaled it might not even propose a regulation until May 2026 . Industry groups are hopeful more interim guidance comes sooner, but the uncertainty around key questions — like whether all types of fuel sales qualify — has prompted facilities to slash run rates this year. Phillips 66's Rodeo facility, which imported low-carbon waste feedstocks like used cooking oil and tallow from abroad, averaged 40,000 b/d of renewable fuel production in the second quarter, the lowest quarterly average since the company finished converting the refinery in June 2024. Phillips 66 will report third quarter earnings on 29 October. By Eunice Bridges and Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Brazil convicts Bolsonaro of attempted coup: Update 2
Brazil convicts Bolsonaro of attempted coup: Update 2
Updates with sentencing.discussions Sao Paulo, 11 September (Argus) — Brazil's supreme court (STF) found former president Jair Bolsonaro guilty today of plotting an attempted coup. The court voted 4-1 to convict Bolsonaro, arguing he was the main orchestrator and beneficiary of a plot to ensure he stayed in power despite losing the election to President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in 2022. The plot included the 8 January 2023 storming of government buildings in the capital Brasilia and plans to kill his political opponents . The judges started discussing sentencing on Thursday, instead of Friday, as was previously expected. Judge Alexandre de Moraes, which is spearheading the case, called for Bolsonaro's sentence to total 27 years and three months. The other three judges who voted in favor of Bolsonaro's conviction all agreed. Bolsonaro faced charges of armed criminal organization, attempted violent abolition of the democratic rule of law, coup d'état, damage qualified by violence and serious threat, and damage to government assets. Judge Luiz Fux was the only justice to dissent, saying the case should be annulled because the court had an "absolute lack of jurisdiction" hearing the case because the defendants "had already lost their [political] positions". Although Fux's vote was not enough to save Bolsonaro from conviction and sentencing, it might boost efforts from Bolsonaro supporters in congress to vote to grant the former president amnesty. Other congressional leaders have so far said that they will not move the requests for a vote, however. Bolsonaro stood trial with seven other defendants, including his running mate in the 2022 election Walter Braga Netto; former minister and army general Augusto Heleno; former justice minister Anderson Torres; former defense minister Paulo Sergio Nogueira; and top Bolsonaro aide Mauro Cid. All other defendants were also found guilty. Bolsonaro is already under strict house arrest for failing to comply to past STF orders. His defense lawyers told reporters they will request that he serve his sentence under house arrest, arguing that his health is fragile. US response US president Donald Trump used the trial against Bolsonaro as reason for imposing 50pc tariffs on Brazil in early August , despite the country having a trade deficit with the US. A ally of Bolsonaro from his first term in office, Trump called the trial a "witch hunt" and sanctioned Moraes for his role in bringing the case against Bolsonaro. Earlier this week White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said Trump is "unafraid to use the [US'] economic and military might" to "protect free speech around the world". "Freedom of speech is arguably the most important issue of our time", she said. "We have taken significant action with regards to Brazil in the form of both sanctions and also leveraging the use of tariffs." Brazil's federal government said it "condemns the use of economic assessments or threats of force against our democracy" and "the attempt by anti-democratic forces to use foreign governments to coerce national institutions", in response to Leavitt's statements. By Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Brazil convicts Bolsonaro of attempted coup: Update
Brazil convicts Bolsonaro of attempted coup: Update
Updates with final vote tally. Sao Paulo, 11 September (Argus) — Brazil's supreme court (STF) found former president Jair Bolsonaro guilty today of plotting an attempted coup. The court voted 4-1 to convict Bolsonaro, arguing he was the main orchestrator and beneficiary of a plot to ensure he stayed in power despite losing the election to President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in 2022. The plot included the 8 January 2023 storming of government buildings in the capital Brasilia and plans to kill his political opponents . Bolsonaro faced charges of armed criminal organization, attempted violent abolition of the democratic rule of law, coup d'état, damage qualified by violence and serious threat, and damage to government assets. Judge Luiz Fux was the only justice to dissent, saying the case should be annulled because the court had an "absolute lack of jurisdiction" hearing the case because the defendants "had already lost their [political] positions". Although Fux's vote was not enough to save Bolsonaro from conviction and sentencing, it might boost efforts from Bolsonaro supporters in congress to vote to grant the former president amnesty. Other congressional leaders have so far said that they will not move the requests for a vote, however. Bolsonaro stood trial with seven other defendants, including his running mate in the 2022 election Walter Braga Netto; former minister and army general Augusto Heleno; former justice minister Anderson Torres; former defense minister Paulo Sergio Nogueira; and top Bolsonaro aide Mauro Cid. All other defendants were also found guilty. The sentence is expected to be handed down Friday. Bolsonaro is already under strict house arrest for failing to comply to past STF orders. His defense lawyers told reporters they will request that he serve his sentence under house arrest, arguing that his health is fragile. Bolsonaro and the other defendants can face up to 43 years in jail each. US response US president Donald Trump used the trial against Bolsonaro as reason for imposing 50pc tariffs on Brazil in early August , despite the country having a trade deficit with the US. A ally of Bolsonaro from his first term in office, Trump called the trial a "witch hunt" and sanctioned Brazil supreme court justice Alexandre de Moraes for his role in bringing the case against Bolsonaro. Earlier this week White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said Trump is "unafraid to use the [US'] economic and military might" to "protect free speech around the world". "Freedom of speech is arguably the most important issue of our time", she said. "We have taken significant action with regards to Brazil in the form of both sanctions and also leveraging the use of tariffs." Brazil's federal government said it "condemns the use of economic assessments or threats of force against our democracy" and "the attempt by anti-democratic forces to use foreign governments to coerce national institutions", in response to Leavitt's statements. By Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Brazil high court convicts Bolsonaro of attempted coup
Brazil high court convicts Bolsonaro of attempted coup
Sao Paulo, 11 September (Argus) — The five-judge panel of Brazil's supreme court (STF) found former president Jair Bolsonaro guilty of plotting an attempted coup. While one of the five judges has yet to finish voting, three judges have voted to convict Bolsonaro, arguing he was the main orchestrator and beneficiary of a plot to ensure he stayed in power despite losing the election to President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in 2022. The plot included the 8 January 2023 storming of government buildings in the capital Brasilia and plans to kill his political opponents . Bolsonaro faced charges of armed criminal organization, attempted violent abolition of the democratic rule of law, coup d'état, damage qualified by violence and serious threat, and damage to government assets. Judge Luiz Fux was the only supreme court justice to dissent, saying the case should be annulled because the court had an "absolute lack of jurisdiction" hearing the case because the defendants "had already lost their [political] positions". Although Fux's vote will not be enough to save Bolsonaro from conviction and sentencing, it might boost efforts from Bolsonaro supporters in congress to vote to grant the former president amnesty. Other congressional leaders have so far said that they will not move the requests for a vote, however. Bolsonaro stood trial with seven other defendants, including his running mate in the 2022 election Walter Braga Netto; former minister and army general Augusto Heleno; former justice minister Anderson Torres; former defense minister Paulo Sergio Nogueira; and top Bolsonaro aide Mauro Cid. All other defendants were also found guilty. The fifth judge, Cristiano Zanin, will cast his vote later today. The sentence is expected to be handed down Friday. Bolsonaro is already under strict house arrest for failing to comply to past STF orders. His defense lawyers told reporters they will request that he serve his sentence under house arrest, arguing that his health is fragile. Bolsonaro and the other defendants can face up to 43 years in jail each. US response US president Donald Trump used the trial against Bolsonaro as reason for imposing 50pc tariffs on Brazil in early August , despite the country having a trade deficit with the US. A ally of Bolsonaro from his first term in office, Trump called the trial a "witch hunt" and sanctioned Brazil supreme court justice Alexandre de Moraes for his role in bringing the case against Bolsonaro. Earlier this week White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said Trump is "unafraid to use the [US'] economic and military might" to "protect free speech around the world". "Freedom of speech is arguably the most important issue of our time", she said. "We have taken significant action with regards to Brazil in the form of both sanctions and also leveraging the use of tariffs." Brazil's federal government said it "condemns the use of economic assessments or threats of force against our democracy" and "the attempt by anti-democratic forces to use foreign governments to coerce national institutions", in response to Leavitt's statements. By Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Clean Fuels urges US to tariff renewable diesel
Clean Fuels urges US to tariff renewable diesel
New York, 22 October (Argus) — A US biofuel trade group called on President Donald Trump's administration today to remove a carveout that allows imported renewable diesel to avoid some tariffs, targeting a trade flow that was already dwindling this year. The Trump administration announced a host of "reciprocal" tariffs on countries in April but exempted some energy products to avoid price spikes for consumers and businesses. While the US did not exempt foreign ethanol and biodiesel from these tariffs, renewable diesel was effectively excluded since it trades under the same tariff code as petroleum diesel. This is an unintended "loophole" that undercuts US biorefineries, according to a letter Clean Fuels Alliance America sent to the US Trade Representative Wednesday. The group, which represents biomass-based diesel feedstock suppliers and producers, wants the Trump administration to modify the exemptions so that the tariffs apply to renewable diesel. Sustainable aviation fuel has also benefited from this workaround — since it similarly lacks a tariff code distinct from petroleum jet fuel — and could also be impacted by any regulatory effort to distinguish renewable fuels from similar petroleum ones. Trade policy has been a frustration for the renewable diesel industry this year, since the Trump administration did not exempt from tariffs renewable feedstocks like used cooking oil (UCO) and tallow that are frequently imported to make fuel. Trump recently threatened to end "cooking oil" trade with China too, a major UCO supplier. This dynamic allows foreign biorefineries to buy up those feedstocks for less because of lower US bidding interest and then send their fuel into the US without tariffs, refiners argue . At the same time, the US has already taken various other steps to discourage foreign biofuels from entering the country — potentially limiting the upside for US industry even if tariff enforcement shifts. The US has transitioned from a long-running tax break for biodiesel blenders, which credited foreign biofuels, to a new incentive this year that can only be claimed by US producers. The Trump administration has also floated revamping a biofuel blend mandate to halve program credits for fuels made abroad or from foreign feedstocks. Biofuel imports have continued this year — notably including renewable diesel from Finnish refiner Neste's Singapore plant and Braya Renewable Fuels' Newfoundland biorefinery — but are still sharply down from last year's levels. The US has been a net importer of renewable diesel for years but is projected to export 30,000 b/d more than it imports this year and 35,000 b/d next year, according to the US Energy Information Administration. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
IMF upgrades global economic outlook
IMF upgrades global economic outlook
Washington, 14 October (Argus) — The IMF is upgrading its global economic growth forecast for 2025 and 2026, but the economic rationale for the upward revision preceded the most recent episode of US-China trade tensions. The IMF, in its latest World Economic Outlook released Tuesday, forecasts the global economy will grow by 3.2pc in 2025 and 3.1pc in 2026. That compares with the 3pc growth for 2025 that the IMF was expecting just three months ago. IMF forecasts are used by many economists, including OECD watchdog the IEA, to model oil demand projections. "The increase in tariffs and its effect has been smaller than expected so far," IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said. The IMF forecast is based on data available as of late September. In recent days, trade tensions flared up again between the US and China. The possibility of further escalation in trade tensions across the globe is part of the IMF outlook. "The US statutory effective tariff rate remains high, and trade tensions continue to flare up with no guarantee yet on lasting trade agreements," Gourinchas said. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Baker Hughes see tariff hit at lower end of range
Baker Hughes see tariff hit at lower end of range
New York, 13 October (Argus) — Oilfield services giant Baker Hughes said the impact from tariffs on this year's results will be at the lower end of the $100mn-$200mn range it estimated in April . "It is an incremental pressure point, but it's something that we have to manage through," chief executive officer Lorenzo Simonelli told the Energy Intelligence Forum in London today. With around 70pc of the world's oil and natural gas production coming from mature assets, Simonelli also noted there are technologies in place today that can reduce costs in the drilling process. "We need more exploration, but before we go out and do the greenfield exploration, there's a lot that we can do from a mature asset solution perspective," he said. Baker Hughes is scheduled to report third quarter results on 23 October. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Canada hopes for steel, energy deals with US
Canada hopes for steel, energy deals with US
Washington, 7 October (Argus) — The Canadian government is hoping to quickly conclude deals over steel and aluminum tariffs and in the energy sector following prime minister Mark Carney's meeting with US president Donald Trump at the White House on Tuesday. Carney and Trump agreed to direct their top negotiators to hash out sectoral deals, prioritizing steel, aluminum and energy, Canadian minister in charge of trade talks, Dominic LeBlanc, told reporters following the meeting. The leaders' meeting was "successful, positive, substantive", according to LeBlanc. Trump, specifically, directed his Cabinet members to "quickly land deals", LeBlanc said. The White House did not immediately provide a readout of the meeting, which began with the two leaders exchanging compliments on their domestic and international accomplishments. Trump only once or twice referred to Canada as a "51st state" — this time jokingly, as a possible outcome of a "merger" between the two countries. Trump defended his tariff policy, pointing out there was "natural conflict" between Canada and the US in terms of having the same industries, such as car manufacturing. "Why do we make cars in Canada?" Trump asked. "It's a tough situation, because we want to make our cars here and, at the same time, we want Canada to do well making cars. So we're working on formulas, and I think we'll get there." Trump's reference to "formulas" does not necessarily mean setting a quota for Canadian imports, LeBlanc said, without elaborating. Carney pushed back on Trump's portrayal of the US-Canadian rivalry during the meeting at the White House. "I wouldn't say 'conflict' — we compete," Carney said. "We are the second largest trading partner of the United States. We do a lot of trade going across the border, where we're cooperating." Trump acknowledged during public remarks that a steel and aluminum deal between the US and Canada is a possibility, but he did not commit to one. Canada was among the first targets of Trump's tariffs once he returned to office. US imports from Canada are subject to a 35pc tariff, with separate duties on imported cars, auto parts, steel and aluminum. In practice, imports from Canada are taxed at the lowest rates among the top US trading partners, because the bulk of trade is exempted from tariffs under the terms of the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement. Energy commodities are also exempted from Trump's tariffs. Total imports from Canada were subject to a 3pc average tariff as of August, and only 10pc of US imports from Canada are subject to any tariff at all, according to research published on Monday by the US Federal Reserve Bank of New York. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Brazil imposes PE duties on US, Canada
Brazil imposes PE duties on US, Canada
Sao Paulo, 28 August (Argus) — Brazil's foreign trade council, Gecex/Camex has confirmed provisional antidumping duties on polyethylene (PE) resin imports from the US and Canada effective immediately and valid for up to six months. Gecex/Camex set the duties at $199.04/t for US-origin resin and $238.49/t for Canadian-origin resin. These rates reflect the dumping margins identified by Decom, with a 10pc reduction applied. The decision follows a recommendation by the Department of Trade Defense (Decom), which found evidence of material injury to Brazil's domestic industry caused by US and Canadian PE imports. The investigation began on 31 July 2024, following a petition from petrochemical producer Braskem, Brazil's sole PE producer. Decom concluded that dumped imports continued to enter the market, posing further injury to the domestic industry. Brazil imported 706,000t of PE from January-June 2025, a 9.9pc decline compared to the same period in 2024. The US was the leading supplier, accounting for 488,800t, followed by Argentina, Canada, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia. Despite the looming tariffs, US shipments remained strong in the weeks leading up to the decision, as buyers who had delayed orders returned to the market. Prices for PE in Brazil had not reacted to the recommendation as of 22 August. Argus reported a sharp increase in LDPE prices for Brazil and the west coast of South America (WCSA) during that week. By Fred Fernandes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Brazil will not reciprocate US tariffs: Lula
Brazil will not reciprocate US tariffs: Lula
Sao Paulo, 14 August (Argus) — Brazil will not impose new reciprocal tariffs on US goods, according to president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, backing down from earlier pledges to counter the US' 50pc tariffs on Brazilian products. "We are negotiators," Lula said Wednesday after signing a decree to offer a line of credit to small businesses to counter the new US tariffs, which have been in effect since 6 August. "We do not want, at first, to do anything that would worsen our relationship [with the US]." Previously Lula said reciprocal tariffs could be used against the US, but earlier this year Lula also signed a new economic reciprocity law that spelled out how the country could react to limits on its trade — including provisions to negotiate and avoid actions that would further harm the country. The US tariffs affect over 35pc of Brazilian products that head to the US, representing 4pc of Brazilian exports, while 700 other products remain under 10pc charges effective since April. Brazil has a trade deficit for goods and services with the US, adding up to over $400bn over the last 15 years, finance minister Fernando Haddad said in a televised interview in early July. The US' trade surplus with Brazil reached $2.3bn in the first half of 2025, a more than seven-fold increase from a year before, according to US-Brazil chamber of commerce Amcham. The US is Brazil's second-largest trading partner behind China, receiving $40.3bn worth of exports in 2024, according to the Brazilian secretary of foreign trade. Brazil is seeking to challenge the US tariffs before the World Trade Organization, saying they "flagrantly violate core commitments made by the US to the WTO, such as the most-favored-nation principle and the negotiated tariff ceilings". Industry urges cautious response Lula's decision follows pleas from different industry groups to not retaliate against the US tariffs. "There is no technical or economic justification for the tariff hike, but we believe now is not the time to retaliate," said Brazilian industry lobby group CNI's president Ricardo Alban in July. "We continue to defend negotiations as a way to convince the American government that this measure is a lose-lose situation for both countries." An Amcham survey of Brazilian companies found that 86pc believe reciprocal action from Brazil against the US would "worsen bilateral tensions and reduce space for negotiations". Haddad was to meet US treasury secretary Scott Bessent on 13 August to discuss the tariffs, but he said that the meeting was cancelled . Brazil will also seek to continue to open markets with other countries, Lula said. It has has been speaking other Brics countries — the informal forum of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — to improve relations among countries affected by the US tariffs, Lula said. The group accounts for around 40pc of the global economy, according to IMF. Brazil will send at least 500 business representatives to India in January to discuss opportunities in trade, energy, critical minerals and other areas, according to the government. "Instead of crying over losses, we will seek winning somewhere else," Lula said. "The world is big and is eager to negotiate with Brazil." By João Curi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US-Brazil trade tension weighs on specialised tankers
US-Brazil trade tension weighs on specialised tankers
London, 8 August (Argus) — US import tariffs on Brazilian goods and the threat of reciprocal measures have curbed trade between the nations, cutting cargo numbers available to specialised tankers. But this could drive up trade on other routes. Washington's 50pc import tariff on Brazilian goods, effective from 6 August, takes US tariffs on Brazilian ethanol, a common product flow requiring specialised tankers, to 52.5pc . A tariff this high would undoubtedly cut trading volumes available to specialised tankers, in the near term at least. As the US is one of Brazil's primary ethanol export destinations, sellers might ramp up exports to other markets to plug a the gap. The EU is a leading importer of Brazilian ethanol, and the finalisation of the EU-Mercosur trade agreement could substantially boost this trade. The current terms of this agreement would provide maximum quotas high enough to entirely cover the amount of Brazilian ethanol exports to the bloc, and slash EU import tariffs by around two-thirds. This could support much higher exports of ethanol from Brazil to the EU on specialised tankers, as long as Brazilian domestic demand does not absorb the supply. It is unlikely that US exports would jump to meet EU demand, considering the EU has made no commitments to lowering market access barriers for US ethanol as part of its trade deal. Brazil's exports of tallow, a biofuels feedstock, to the US are also likely to drop, prompting exporters to look for new markets, either domestic or in Europe . Some chartering activity could be sustained between Brazil and the US, as biofuels producers in the latter country could be able to claim a "duty drawback". This would refund up to 99pc of the duties, taxes and fees paid during the import process, if they use Brazilian tallow to produce HVO and SAF for export to common destination markets including Canada, the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub, or the UK. With falling Brazil-US trade, it is likely that shipowners will focus on positioning vessels in US Gulf coast market or instead compete for long-haul cargoes of ethanol or soybean oil from Latin America to west coast India and east Asia. In the build-up to Trump's executive order, Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said his administration would consider import tariffs on US goods under Brazil's economic reciprocity law. The US exports caustic soda, glycols and methanol to Brazil on specialised Stainless Steel J19s, Handysizes and Medium Range tankers. The US exports far higher amounts of products that require specialised tankers to Brazil, than Brazil does to the US. Of methanol, ethanol, aromatics, glycols, caustic soda, sulphuric acid, vegetable oils and biofuels, the US exported 4.23mn t to Brazil in 2024 while Brazil exported 651,000t to the US, Kpler data show. This means any reciprocal measures from Brazil would probably have more of an effect on the regional specialised tanker market. Brazil is the leading importer of US caustic soda but Brazil's imports from the US declined by more than 16pc in June from a year earlier, according to GTT, as market participants sought to avoid facing tariffs mid-shipment. Cargo volumes heading to Latin America in the US Gulf coast specialised tanker spot market have dropped even further in recent weeks. Many expected Brazil to begin importing more US ethanol this year to supply a new fuel mandate that increases ethanol blending in gasoline to 30pc from 27pc. Importing US ethanol could become unviable if the Lula government decides to implement import tariffs. It is unclear if Brazil will implement reciprocal tariffs. The most recent finance ministry response plan included credit concessions, an increase in government purchases but did not mention reciprocal measures. By Leonard Fisher-Matthews Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US sanctions Brazilian judge in Bolsonaro trial: Update
US sanctions Brazilian judge in Bolsonaro trial: Update
Includes more US comments. Houston, 30 July (Argus) — The presiding judge in a trail against former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro faces US sanctions over alleged human rights abuses after President Donald Trump's criticism of the case. The US Office of Foreign Assets Control (Ofac) on Wednesday added Alexandre de Moraes to its list of specially designated nationals under the Magnitsky Act, which allows the US to prohibit entry and impose economic sanctions on foreign nationals it has identified as taking part in human rights violations or corruption. Trump has called the case against Bolsonaro for an alleged coup attempt a "witch hunt" and threatened a 50pc tariff on Brazil, a phrase treasury secretary Scott Bessent echoed after the latest order. "Alexandre de Moraes has taken it upon himself to be judge and jury in an unlawful witch hunt against US and Brazilian citizens and companies," Bessent said, adding that Moraes has targeted opposition politicians including Bolsonaro. He also highlighted what he said was Moraes' arbitrary detention of a journalist for over a year among other cases not directly related with Bolsonaro's trial. The US State Department in explaining the sanction said that "Moraes abused his authority by engaging in a targeted and politically motivated effort designed to silence political critics." It cited Moraes' social media ban on Bolsonaro and his orders for "unjust pre-trial detentions." The Brazilian judge had argued earlier that Bolsonaro and his son Eduardo have been seeking help in the US to pressure Brazilian authorities over the trial . Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva shortly after the Ofac designation posted an excerpt of his interview with The New York Times on social media highlighting his comment that "In Brazil, the law is for everyone. The three branches of government are independent." The designation comes ahead of Brazil facing higher US tariffs over its exports, set to go into effect on 1 August for it and other countries that do not reach new trade deals. Lula has said he is "open to talk" with the US. By Carla Bass Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Brazil increases 2025 coffee crop outlook
Brazil increases 2025 coffee crop outlook
Sao Paulo, 4 December (Argus) — Brazil is set to produce its third-largest coffee crop ever this year, despite it being a low productivity year in the crop cycle, according to national supply company Conab's last crop estimate for this cycle. Brazil will produce almost 56.5mn 60kg bags of coffee this year, up from the previous forecast released in September of 55.2mn bags. The upward revision was driven by higher average national productivity, reflecting a better performance of Conilon coffee crops, one of the two major types of coffee grown in Brazil. This is above the 51.8mn bags first projected for the season and surpasses the 2024 crop, which produced 54.2mn bags. Droughts, irregularly distributed rainfall and high temperatures severely hampered yields in the prior cycle, despite initial expectations for a high-producing one. Coffee cycles occur biennially in Brazil, with larger volumes produced in alternating years. During the lower producing years — known as negative years — plants replenish their nutritional reserves, leading to reduced output. The 2025 cycle is considered a negative year, with the current estimate representing an all-time high for a negative year, topping the record registered in the 2023 crop, when Brazil produced nearly 55.1mn bags. It is expected to rank as the third-largest in the nation's history, only behind the positive cycles of 2020 and 2018, which produced 63.1mn bags and 61.7mn bags, respectively. Conab revised the outlook for the current cycle based on an increase in expected yields to 30.4 bags/hectare (ha) from 29.7 bags/ha in the prior forecast. That is up by 5.5pc from 28.8 bags/ha in the positive 2024 year and compares with 29.4 bags/ha in the negative 2023 cycle. Brazil grows two types of coffee: the higher-grade Arabica coffee and the Conilon grade coffee, also referred to as Robusta. These varieties have different taste, caffeine content and productivity levels, as well as distinct producing regions and harvesting calendars. Arabica coffee production is forecast at around 35.8mn bags, ahead of the nearly 35.2mn bags projected in September, but down from 39.6mn bags in 2024. There has been significant vegetative recovery in crops, mainly in southeastern Minas Gerais state, Brazil's largest producer, which contributed to an increase compared to the previous estimate, according to Conab. Yields rose to 24.1 bags/ha from 23.7 bags/ha in September. That is behind the 26.2 bags/ha in 2024. Conilon coffee output should reach an overall record of 20.8mn bags, up from 20.1mn bags in the previous outlook following the consistent weather conditions in major producing states Espirito Santo and Bahia that promoted good conditions for areas and resulted in high yields. That compares with 14.6mn bags in the prior cycle. Yields are up to 55.9 bags/ha, from 53.8 bags/ha estimated in September and 39.2 bags/ha yielded in 2024. Conab continues to expect the total area allocated to both coffee grades to reach approximately 2.25mn ha this cycle, 0.9pc above on the year. The area set aside for coffee is split between space for production and new crops. Areas allocated to crops in production fell by 1.2pc on the year to nearly 1.86mn ha. New areas account for around 396,428ha, up by 12pc, as is usual for negative years. Coffee exports fall on year Brazil exported 34.2mn bags of coffee in January-October, around 17.8pc below the total shipped in the same period a year before, according to trade ministry Mdic data. This reduction in volume exported in the first ten months of 2025 is mainly because of limited domestic stocks at the beginning of the year, following a record shipment of 50.5mn bags in 2024. Tariffs imposed by the US from April onwards, a major buyer of Brazilian coffee, also contributed to the reduction in exports. Brazil exported coffee to 150 countries in the first ten months of 2025. The US and Germany accounted for the largest share of shipments, with 14.1pc and 14pc, respectively. Italy received 8.1pc of exports, Belgium and Japan 6.3pc each. By João Petrini Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US lifts tariffs on most fertilizer imports: Update
US lifts tariffs on most fertilizer imports: Update
Adds detail on the lack of full exemption status for ammonia and recent Nola urea futures trade Houston, 14 November (Argus) — US president Donald Trump said today key nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers, among other agricultural products , are exempt from US import tariffs that were implemented in April, but ammonia's status under the tariff modification remains unclear. After just seven months in place, tariffs that have curbed imports to US shores and elevated the price of fertilizers have been lifted, according to a modification to Executive Order 14257 issued by the White House today. Fertilizers exempted from the tariffs include urea, ammonium nitrate, UAN, ammonium sulfate, TSP, DAP and MAP. Ammonia could qualify for tariff exemptions, but eligibility will be determined on a case-by-case basis by the secretary of commerce and the US Trade Representative, depending on the terms of existing or ongoing trade negotiations with each country. Potassium fertilizers like MOP were already exempt from import tariffs. The modification to the tariffs went into effect for goods imported starting 13 November. January Nola urea futures traded down roughly $30/st late Friday afternoon to $360/st fob following the announcement, but otherwise activity was largely subdued given the modifications' proximity to the weekend. Fertilizer values will likely begin to price-in the change in trade policy starting Monday. Most fertilizer exporting countries, except for Russia , faced tariff rates of 10-15pc, with some suppliers even facing up to 30pc tariffs, resulting in major shifts in fertilizer trade. Exporters have avoided the US, favoring alternative destinations for their supply. But trade flows could normalize now that fertilizers are now tariff-free. The tariffs have contributed to eroding fertilizer affordability relative to crop prices in the US this year, driving fertilizer prices to multi-year highs and significantly curbing demand for nutrients across the country. Lower cost imports could help unwind farmer reluctance to enter the market leading up to the spring season in 2026. The announcement should provide importers and distributors with some certainty headed into next spring after months of being kept on edge by shifting US trade policy. By Calder Jett and Sneha Kumar Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US lifts tariffs on fertilizer imports
US lifts tariffs on fertilizer imports
Houston, 14 November (Argus) — US president Donald Trump said today key nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers, among other agricultural products, are exempt from US import tariffs that were implemented in April. After just seven months in place, tariffs that have curbed imports to US shores and elevated the price of key fertilizers have been lifted, according to a modification to Executive Order 14257 issued by the White House today. Fertilizers exempted from the tariffs include ammonia, urea, ammonium nitrate, UAN, ammonium sulfate, DAP and MAP. Potassium fertilizers like MOP were already exempt from import tariffs. The modification to the tariffs will go into effect for goods imported starting 13 November. Most fertilizer exporting countries, except for Russia , faced tariff rates of 10-15pc, with some suppliers even facing up to 30pc tariffs, resulting in major shifts in fertilizer trade. Exporters have avoided the US, favoring alternative destinations for their supply. But trade flows could normalize now that fertilizers are now tariff-free. The tariffs have contributed to eroding fertilizer affordability relative to crop prices in the US this year, driving fertilizer prices to multi-year highs and significantly curbing demand for nutrients across the country. Lower cost imports could help unwind farmer reluctance to enter the market leading up to the spring season in 2026. By Calder Jett and Sneha Kumar Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Brazil starts process for reciprocating US tariffs
Brazil starts process for reciprocating US tariffs
Sao Paulo, 29 August (Argus) — Brazil has started the process of developing reciprocal tariffs against the US, vice-president and trade minister Geraldo Alckmin said, a move designed to speed up negotiations. Brazil's foreign trade chamber, Camex, has 30 days to determine how the 50pc tariffs the US imposed on Brazil effective 6 August can be countered under the country's economic reciprocity law approved in April. The law authorizes retaliation through goods, services and intellectual property. There is no time frame for the process of imposing reciprocal tariffs after the initial 30-day deliberation period. "Brazil will not give up on its sovereignty," Alckmin said this week during a visit to Mexico, where he signed two cooperation agreements on biofuels with Mexico as well as a letter of intent on agriculture. "I hope that [this process] will help accelerate dialogue and negotiations [with the US], which is what president Lula has been asking us to do." The move comes weeks after President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva had said that Brazil would not reciprocate the tariffs but seek to negotiate. Brazil has been working to counter the tariffs' effect on its economy by supporting companies in efforts to find new markets , and by approving a line of credit to small businesses hurt by the measures. Earlier this month, Brazil asked the World Trade Organization to intervene in the dispute over tariffs. The US typically runs a trade surplus for goods and services with Brazil, which has totaled more than $400bn over the last 15 years, finance minister Fernando Haddad said in a televised interview in early July. In the first half of 2025 the US' trade surplus with Brazil reached $2.3bn, a more than seven-fold increase from a year before, according to US-Brazil chamber of commerce Amcham. By Maria Frazatto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Brazil increases 2025 coffee crop outlook
Brazil increases 2025 coffee crop outlook
Sao Paulo, 4 December (Argus) — Brazil is set to produce its third-largest coffee crop ever this year, despite it being a low productivity year in the crop cycle, according to national supply company Conab's last crop estimate for this cycle. Brazil will produce almost 56.5mn 60kg bags of coffee this year, up from the previous forecast released in September of 55.2mn bags. The upward revision was driven by higher average national productivity, reflecting a better performance of Conilon coffee crops, one of the two major types of coffee grown in Brazil. This is above the 51.8mn bags first projected for the season and surpasses the 2024 crop, which produced 54.2mn bags. Droughts, irregularly distributed rainfall and high temperatures severely hampered yields in the prior cycle, despite initial expectations for a high-producing one. Coffee cycles occur biennially in Brazil, with larger volumes produced in alternating years. During the lower producing years — known as negative years — plants replenish their nutritional reserves, leading to reduced output. The 2025 cycle is considered a negative year, with the current estimate representing an all-time high for a negative year, topping the record registered in the 2023 crop, when Brazil produced nearly 55.1mn bags. It is expected to rank as the third-largest in the nation's history, only behind the positive cycles of 2020 and 2018, which produced 63.1mn bags and 61.7mn bags, respectively. Conab revised the outlook for the current cycle based on an increase in expected yields to 30.4 bags/hectare (ha) from 29.7 bags/ha in the prior forecast. That is up by 5.5pc from 28.8 bags/ha in the positive 2024 year and compares with 29.4 bags/ha in the negative 2023 cycle. Brazil grows two types of coffee: the higher-grade Arabica coffee and the Conilon grade coffee, also referred to as Robusta. These varieties have different taste, caffeine content and productivity levels, as well as distinct producing regions and harvesting calendars. Arabica coffee production is forecast at around 35.8mn bags, ahead of the nearly 35.2mn bags projected in September, but down from 39.6mn bags in 2024. There has been significant vegetative recovery in crops, mainly in southeastern Minas Gerais state, Brazil's largest producer, which contributed to an increase compared to the previous estimate, according to Conab. Yields rose to 24.1 bags/ha from 23.7 bags/ha in September. That is behind the 26.2 bags/ha in 2024. Conilon coffee output should reach an overall record of 20.8mn bags, up from 20.1mn bags in the previous outlook following the consistent weather conditions in major producing states Espirito Santo and Bahia that promoted good conditions for areas and resulted in high yields. That compares with 14.6mn bags in the prior cycle. Yields are up to 55.9 bags/ha, from 53.8 bags/ha estimated in September and 39.2 bags/ha yielded in 2024. Conab continues to expect the total area allocated to both coffee grades to reach approximately 2.25mn ha this cycle, 0.9pc above on the year. The area set aside for coffee is split between space for production and new crops. Areas allocated to crops in production fell by 1.2pc on the year to nearly 1.86mn ha. New areas account for around 396,428ha, up by 12pc, as is usual for negative years. Coffee exports fall on year Brazil exported 34.2mn bags of coffee in January-October, around 17.8pc below the total shipped in the same period a year before, according to trade ministry Mdic data. This reduction in volume exported in the first ten months of 2025 is mainly because of limited domestic stocks at the beginning of the year, following a record shipment of 50.5mn bags in 2024. Tariffs imposed by the US from April onwards, a major buyer of Brazilian coffee, also contributed to the reduction in exports. Brazil exported coffee to 150 countries in the first ten months of 2025. The US and Germany accounted for the largest share of shipments, with 14.1pc and 14pc, respectively. Italy received 8.1pc of exports, Belgium and Japan 6.3pc each. By João Petrini Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Former Brazilian president Bolsonaro arrested
Former Brazilian president Bolsonaro arrested
Belem, 22 November (Argus) — Brazil's federal police have detained former president Jair Bolsonaro for violating court orders during his house arrest and to prevent "an attempted escape", according to a supreme court (STF) ruling. STF said that it found "very serious evidence" that Bolsonaro — who was under strict house arrest following his conviction on charges of attempting a coup and sentenced to jail for 27 years and three months — was trying to escape. This included information that Bolsonaro would break his electronic ankle monitor and try to escape during "confusion caused by a demonstration called by his son". Bolsonaro's son, senator Flavio Bolsonaro, posted a video on social media on Friday calling on the former president's supporters to perform a vigil outside of his home to pray for Bolsonaro's health and "liberty in Brazil". STF's decision also notes that Bolsonaro did not comply with orders to not use social media during his house arrest. The detainment is a "preventative measure" and does not count towards his sentencing, according to the court. STF said its decision to detain Bolsonaro was also motivated by three congressmen and Bolsonaro allies who fled the country: Alexandro Ramagem, Carla Zambelli and Eduardo Bolsonaro, the former president's son. Ramagem was also convicted of an attempted coup and sentenced to 16 years in jail, but fled to the US, according to STF. Zambelli was convicted of illegally carrying a weapon, unlawful coercion, as well as hacking and inserting false documents into Brazil's national council of justice. She fled to Italy, where she was detained and is awaiting extradition. Eduardo Bolsonaro will face trial before STF for coercion during the course of legal proceedings during his father's trial. The prosecutor general's office accused him of promoting "serious sanctions" against Brazil to dissuade STF from convicting his father for the coup plot. Eduardo, who has been in the US since March, met with US president Donald Trump and was a vocal supporter of Trump imposing 50pc tariffs on Brazilian products . Trump mentioned the trial against the former president as one of the reasons for the tariffs, but some have since been lifted . Jair Bolsonaro's defense attorney will appeal the arrest, saying that the former president's health is "delicate" and that "his imprisonment could put his life at risk." Appeals to serve his sentence under house arrest — also based on Bolsonaro's health — have so far not come to fruition. The former president has been hospitalized several times in the last year due to complications following a stabbing he suffered while campaigning in 2018. By Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Trump removes 40pc tariffs on Brazil’s beef, coffee
Trump removes 40pc tariffs on Brazil’s beef, coffee
Sao Paulo, 21 November (Argus) — The US removed 40pc tariffs on imports of Brazilian beef, coffee and fruits imposed in August, the White House said on Thursday. The new executive order goes into effect retroactively on "goods entered for consumption, or withdrawn from warehouse for consumption" after 12:01am ET on 13 November — the same date that Brazil's foreign affairs minister Mauro Vieira and the US secretary of state Marco Rubio met in Washington, DC, to discuss tariffs and bilateral deals, the Brazilian foreign affairs ministry (MRE) said. In the executive order, President Donald Trump mentioned his phone call with Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on 6 October and recommendations from officials to lift additional tariffs on agricultural products as "there has been initial progress in negotiations with the Government of Brazil." Earlier this week Trump lifted a 10pc tariff imposed on the same products in April, reducing tariffs on orange juice to zero. But tariffs on coffee and beef were still high and unreasonable, Brazil's vice president and trade ministry Geraldo Alckmin said. Lula praised the lower tariffs in an online statement and said he remains optimistic about further negotiations with Trump. Additional US tariffs remain in place on imports of Brazilian fertilizers, minerals, fossil fuels and oil products, according to MRE. The Brazilian association of beef exporters Abiec lauded the executive order as a reinforcement to global trade stability and market competitiveness. Monthly Brazilian beef exports to the US have halved in August-October from a year earlier under a 76pc tariff on out-of-quota cargoes. By João Curi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Trump trims Brazil beef, coffee, fruit tariffs by 10pc
Trump trims Brazil beef, coffee, fruit tariffs by 10pc
Sao Paulo, 14 November (Argus) — US president Donald Trump lifted 10pc tariffs on imports of Brazilian beef, coffee and fruits imposed in April, but 40pc tariffs imposed in August and other quota-tied fees remain in effect. The executive order goes into effect retroactively on "goods entered for consumption, or withdrawn from warehouse for consumption" after 12:01am ET on 13 November. Brazil is a major supplier of these products to the US. Brazil's foreign affairs minister Mauro Vieira and the US secretary of state Marco Rubio have discussed tariffs in recent weeks . Starting in early August, a combination of tariffs equaling 76pc were imposed on US imports of Brazilian beef, cutting those volumes in half . Australia currently fills most US needs for beef, which are subject to a 10pc tariff. While Brazil had a 50pc tariff on in-quota shipments and a 76.4pc tariff on out-of-quota shipments, that has now been reduced by 10 percentage points. US beef imports are forecast at 2.433mn t in 2025, up 16pc from 2024, before easing slightly to 2.245mn t in 2026, according to the US Department of Agriculture. But margins remain tight, squeezed by the volatile tariffs and shifting consumer behavior, importers and exporters said. Tariffs also reduced shipments of Brazilian coffee and orange juice , other key products exported to the US. By João Curi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Viewpoint: US tariffs altering UBC buying in ’26
Viewpoint: US tariffs altering UBC buying in ’26
Houston, 24 December (Argus) — Consumers of used beverage cans (UBCs) likely will seek to purchase more of the scrap grade on a spot basis in 2026, minimizing their exposure to long-term supply agreements after buying spreads widened to historical lows this year on the back of a record-high regional premium. Sell-side sources estimate that most rolling mills reduced their volumes under contract between 10-20pc for next year compared to 2025 levels, reflecting a shift in consumers' procurement strategies after US tariffs on aluminum imports disrupted price mechanisms against which UBCs and other grades of scrap are traded. "All mills directionally did less contract pounds. That showed up everywhere," a broker said about 2026 negotiations. "They all want more flexibility to buy spot." Rolling mills locked in annual contracts for 2025 at tight discounts to the Midwest transaction price (MWTP), with sources saying that most deals were struck on either side of 80pc within a narrow range. Supply availability of UBCs was constrained at the end of 2024, prompting consumers to accept brokers' and dealers' higher offers to ensure stable inflows of scrap. But US trade policies and White House threats against major trading partners provoked a surge in the Midwest P1020 premium, which led to a sharp rise in the MWTP and an influx of UBC imports from overseas suppliers, with shipments setting a one-month high of 30,082 metric tonnes (t) in May as importers sought to take advantage of higher prices in the US, customs data showed. The US imported an average 16,230t of the scrap every month from 2023-2024, according to customs data. The regional upcharge climbed by more than 270pc from the start of the year to an all-time high of 88¢/lb as of 10 December, Argusdata showed. The MWTP rose by 56pc to $2.1665/lb in the same timeframe, with gains in the premium far outpacing increases in the London Metal Exchange (LME) cash settlement — the other component that comprises the MWTP. Buying spreads, as a result, dropped from an average of 80.8pc in January to an average of 45.3pc in November — reaching a low of 44.4pc on 29 October — after supply tightness eased and consumers widened discounts, saying underlying fundamentals did not support paying more for UBCs just because intrinsic values had risen, which several viewed as artificial increases. That sentiment from buyers has been reflected in outright prices for UBCs, which fell by a smaller margin — down by 13¢/lb, or by 12pc, to 98.5¢/lb at the end of November — compared to buying spreads. Still, that divergence in discounts led to a significant discrepancy between what rolling mills had to pay brokers and at what levels they could purchase UBCs in the spot market. This compelled consumers to take on more volumes from the trade or under shorter-term supply deals in 2026 in efforts to avoid a repeat of 2025. Consumers have already entered the spot market for significant tonnage for January, with one rolling mill having already closed out its next-month position and another procuring north of 40 truckloads so far. Buyers at the consumer level say they want to purchase more UBCs on the spot market to help fill the balance of their needs despite lower contract volumes. Sources noted that most rolling mills' overall consumption forecasts for 2026 are relatively stable based on downstream demand for beverage-can sheet. Adding to upward pressure on UBC demand are Section 232 import tariffs, which currently stand at 50pc. Consumers have sought to utilize more scrap for their melts to help offset elevated costs for P1020 and other grades of primary aluminum — a trend that most expect to persist next year. Beverage-can sheet can utilize a higher percentage — as high as 90pc, Argus understands — of scrap as an input compared to other flat-rolled products, precluding the need for rolling mills to use primary aluminum in their melts. Sources have signaled that first-quarter contracts with rolling mills have been locked in between 51-54pc of the MWTP, with buying spreads for annual deals that have been concluded coming in between 55-62pc broadly — depending on volume and the quality of UBCs. With those discounts, buyers effectively have priced in expectations that US tariffs on primary aluminum will persist throughout the year. Some market participants are optimistic that negotiations on a new US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement will result in a tariff carveout for aluminum from top US supplier Canada. Still, there have been no concrete indications that such a reduction, which likely would spur a drop in the Midwest premium, will come. Challenges to 2026 consumption While most consumers' indicated demand levels have not changed significantly, suppliers and brokers are monitoring developments with two major rolling mills to see how certain constraints may impact industrywide consumption for UBCs in 2026. Aluminum-roller Novelis' hot-rolling mill outage at its facility in Oswego, New York, which primarily produces flat-rolled products for the automotive industry, has forced the company and its domestic competitors to scramble to meet automakers' needs. Those efforts have included shifting manufacturing lines away from other end markets to focus on producing automotive-grade sheet or hot-rolled coil, also known as "hot band". Sources also noted that new entrant Aluminum Dynamics' (ADI) demand for UBCs may not be as significant for next year as market participants originally thought when the company first announced its 650,000 metric tonne (t)/yr plant in Columbus, Mississippi. ADI planned to build satellite facilities in Arizona and Mexico to supply Columbus, with those sites recycling UBCs to melt into slab for production of beverage-can sheet. The Arizona plant has yet to be built, with the company contending with locals who have been fighting its construction, while the Mexico facility is operational, but products from the site have been subject to import tariffs, sources said. By Alex Nicoll Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US Fed cuts target rate, December cut unclear: Update
US Fed cuts target rate, December cut unclear: Update
Adds comments from Fed chairman Jerome Powell, other data. Houston, 29 October (Argus) — US Federal Reserve policymakers cut their target interest rate today by a quarter point, the second reduction of the year, but Fed chair Jerome Powell said a previously telegraphed December cut was "far from" a foregone decision. The Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on Wednesday cut the federal funds rate to 3.75-4pc, following its first cut of the year in early September, also by a quarter point, after recent and revised employment data signaled the labor market was weakening rapidly. "With downside risks to employment increased in recent month, the balance of risk has shifted," Fed chair Jerome Powell said after the meeting. "Accordingly, we judged appropriate at this meeting to take another step toward a more neutral policy stance." But Powell said another rate cut during the Fed's next meeting in December was not a sure thing, citing "strongly differing views" in the FOMC discussions, which included one governor recently nominated by President Donald Trump. "Policy is not on a preset course." Powell also said the Fed would conclude its balance sheet runoff — known as Quantitative Tightening (QT) — by 1 December. This process involves the Fed reducing its holdings of government securities to decrease excess liquidity, another tool to prop up interest rates. The Fed in September penciled in two more quarter point cuts this year, with the last one in December, and only one next year. Even with the government shutdown cutting off most official federal data, Powell said the Fed's economists are able to continue tracking the economy through state-level weekly jobless claims data and private sector data on firings and hirings, consumer spending and confidence. He said the labor data showed "a gradual cooling." Regarding US import tariffs' impacts on inflation, he said they were "pushing up prices in goods resulting in higher overall inflation" but that a "reasonable base case is that the effects on inflation will be short-lived, a one-time shift in the price level." Still, he added it was "possible that the inflationary effects could, instead, be more persistent, and that is a risk to be assessed and managed." Powell called the current economic environment "pretty challenging". Still, he noted that, at 4.3pc, unemployment was low and the economy is "growing at close to 2pc". The FOMC cut its target rate by 100 basis points over three meetings in late 2024, bringing it down from a near two decade high as inflation was slowing from Covid-19 reopening highs in mid 2022. The CME's FedWatch tool on Wednesday showed 68.4pc odds of another quarter point cut in December, compared with 86.9pc odds on Tuesday. Powell has come under unrelenting pressure from President Donald Trump, who has claimed he was a "numbskull," among other terms, for being slow to resume cuts. He threatened to fire Powell, whose term in office ends next May, but backed away from that threat to avoid tanking financial markets. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Tariffs burden new mill projects: US steelmakers
Tariffs burden new mill projects: US steelmakers
Pittsburgh, 29 October (Argus) — The White House's tariff regime is largely meant to support US manufacturing, but snowballing import taxes could have the opposite effect by jeopardizing new steel mill construction projects, according to industry comments in an ongoing trade hearing process. The US steel industry has been supportive of 50pc tariffs on steel imports that President Donald Trump imposed under section 232 in June because the policy has curbed imports and allowed major domestic steel companies to ship record volumes this year. But steelmakers looking to upgrade or build new plants face higher costs for importing steel machinery and equipment, according to public comments in the US Commerce Department's investigation into the national security impacts of machinery and robotics imports that started last month. The agency said the investigation could lead to tariffs on industrial stamping and pressing machines, turning and milling machines, grinding equipment, and machine tools for cutting and welding, although it has not shared the specific products or import codes that could face import restrictions. US steel companies, industrial equipment manufacturers and metal recyclers warned of rising costs from potential tariffs on industrial machinery in public comments released by the Commerce Department on 22 October. Pacific Steel Group is building a reinforcing bar plant in the Mojave Desert in California that is scheduled to come online in 2027. It would be the first new steel mill in California in more than 50 years, and will use specialized electric arc furnace equipment made by Italian manufacturer Danieli. "As there are no domestic alternatives that meet Pacific Steel's needs, the project is entirely dependent on these imports to move forward," the company said in public comments. Pacific Steel said it supports the current 50pc steel tariffs. But the company acknowledged that import taxes have driven the cost up of building the steel mill. "These added expenses place significant financial strain on the project and risk delaying or even jeopardizing the successful completion of an American steel plant," the company said. Pacific Steel's comments reflect a similar sentiment shared by Arkansas steelmaker Hybar last month. Hybar has applied for permits to build a second reinforcing bar mill in Arkansas, but tariffs on steel-making equipment could make the project cost prohibitive. The company will make a final decision on whether to proceed with the project early next year, Hybar [told Argus ](https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2746740) on 28 October. US Steel, now owned by Japanese firm Nippon Steel, also voiced concern over the industrial machinery and robotics tariff investigation. The company plans to build a new hot-strip mill at its Mon Valley Works in Pennsylvania, install a new $100mn slag recycler at its Edgar Thompson plant in that state, and spend $200mn on upgrades to its hot-strip mill in Gary, Indiana. "US Steel will need to rely on imports given the limited production of the major equipment necessary to construct new steel mills and modernize existing facilities," the company told the Commerce Department. Details are scarce on the exact products affected by the tariff investigation into industrial machinery and robotics, US Steel noted. The company has identified just two possible domestic manufacturers of those products: Machine Concepts and Reel Power Industrial. By James Marshall Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Trump cancels trade talks with Canada
Trump cancels trade talks with Canada
Singapore, 24 October (Argus) — US president Donald Trump said he had ended all trade talks with Canada in protest over a political advertisement that criticised tariffs. "ALL TRADE NEGOTIATIONS WITH CANADA ARE HEREBY TERMINATED," Trump said in a post on his social media platform late on 23 October. Trump alleged that the advertisement, featuring former president Ronald Reagan speaking negatively about tariffs, was an attempt to interfere with a pending decision by the US Supreme Court on the legality of tariffs. Canada was among the first targets of Trump's tariffs once he returned to office. US imports from Canada are subject to a 35pc tariff, with separate duties on imported cars, auto parts, steel and aluminium. In practice, imports from Canada are taxed at the lowest rates among the top US trading partners, because the bulk of trade is exempted from tariffs under the terms of the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement. Energy commodities are also exempted from Trump's tariffs. The Canadian government said earlier this month that it was hoping to reach quick trade deals over steel, aluminium and energy after a meeting between Trump and Canadian prime minister Mark Carney. The US Supreme Court has scheduled a hearing for 5 November to review rulings by lower courts on whether Trump overstepped his authority when placing emergency tariffs on most imports into the US. By Kevin Foster Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
