Latest news on trade tariffs
Read the latest news stories as they are published.
Trump tweaks tariff burden on US automakers
Trump tweaks tariff burden on US automakers
Washington, 29 April (Argus) — President Donald Trump's administration has offered to offset the 25pc tariff on foreign-made auto parts, scheduled to start on 3 May, and to exempt auto parts from any additional tariffs they face from other import taxes imposed in recent months. Trump, who today announced the change in tariffs ahead of a political rally in Michigan, a key US car manufacturing state, cast his decision in terms of giving US automakers a reprieve from his tariff policies. But as in other cases when he changed his mind on tariffs, the US auto industry will still face a substantial burden from import taxes imposed since Trump took office. Trump's 25pc tariffs on foreign cars went into effect on 3 April, and a 25pc tariff on imported auto parts was scheduled to go into effect on 3 May. Under an executive order Trump signed today, the auto makers can be partially refunded the cost of the tariffs on imported auto parts, subject to a cap of 15pc of the value of an assembled car until April 2026, dropping to a 10pc cap until April 2027. The refund cannot exceed 3.75pc of a car's manufacturer suggested retail price in the first year, dropping to 2.5pc in the second year. The idea behind the adjustment is to force US automakers to become wholly reliant on auto parts made in the US in the next two years, commerce secretary Howard Lutnick explained. In theory, at least, a US-made car that is made with 85pc domestic components would not face an additional tariff cost. A separate executive order clarifies that the tariffs on foreign-made cars and auto parts will not be calculated in addition to any other tariffs Trump has imposed on Canada and Mexico, and will not be counted on top of tariffs imposed on steel, aluminum and their derivative products. "This is just a little transition," Trump told reporters at the White House today, announcing the latest reversal of his tariff policy. "We're just giving them a little chance, because in some cases, they can't get the parts fast enough." By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Carney’s Liberals to form next Canadian government
Carney’s Liberals to form next Canadian government
Calgary, 28 April (Argus) — Canadian prime minister Mark Carney and his Liberal party are projected to win the country's 45th general election, but securing a majority of seats in Parliament is unclear with many tight races still to be determined. The Liberal party is on track to take 156 of the 343 seats up for grabs, according to preliminary results from Elections Canada at about 11pm ET. The Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, will form the official opposition with an estimated 144 seats so far. The Liberals seat count is comparable to the 160 won in the 2021 election while the Conservatives are up from 119. If the Liberals win a minority they would need the support of other parties to pass legislation, as they did prior to the election. The win completes the comeback for the Liberal party which just a few months ago languished in polls as dissatisfaction of then-prime minister Justin Trudeau rose. Carney and his experience navigating economic crises resonated with voters as they found themselves in a trade war initiated by US president Donald Trump. The US has imposed a 25pc tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum since 13 March and Canadian automobiles since 9 April. Canada has retaliated to each wave with tariffs of their own. Canadian oil and gas has been exempt from US tariffs but Trump's trade action has led many politicians and Canadians at large to re-examine the need to diversify its energy exports. Trade corridors, pipelines and LNG facilities were promoted by both Carney and Poilievre. Carney and Trump agreed in late-March that broader, comprehensive economic negotiations would happen after the election. The Liberals have held power since 2015, but only in a minority capacity since the 2019 election. Inflation, housing, Trump top concerns The key issues for Canadians this election cycle were inflation, housing, cost of living and international relations — particularly the aggressive moves from the US, according to polls. Diversifying trade and growing energy production have been promoted by both Conservative and Liberal leaders — and prime minister hopefuls — looking to become less dependent on US customers and kickstart a lagging economy. Canada is the world's fourth-largest oil producer with over 5.7mn b/d of output, and the fifth-largest natural gas producer at 18 Bcf/d, according to the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP). The US is Canada's largest foreign customer of each, but verbal and economic attacks on Canada by Trump have prompted politicians and Canadians at large to reexamine their trade strategies. Poilievre says Liberal policies over the past decade have stifled the country's productivity and allowed it to become the weakest performer in the G7. Liberal policy needs to be undone so Canada can "unleash" its oil and gas sector to better protect its sovereignty , says Poilievre. Carney's campaign had centered heavily on Trump, emphasizing the threat comes from abroad, not within. Carney wants to make Canada an "energy superpower" but maintains current legislation is the way to do it, despite calls to the contrary by oil and gas executives . By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Canadians go to polls in general election
Canadians go to polls in general election
Calgary, 28 April (Argus) — Voting in Canada is underway today with the governing Liberal party looking to complete a comeback in polling against the Conservative party to clinch its fourth-straight term. There are 343 seats up for grabs in Canada's Parliament and polls throughout the five-week campaign indicate the Liberals have a reasonable chance to win a majority, which would allow them to implement policies without needing the support of other parties. Latest polling figures show the Liberals at 43pc, the Conservatives at 39pc, the New Democratic Party (NDP) at 8pc, the Bloq Quebecois at 6pc, and the Green Party at 2pc, according to poll aggregator Canada338 on Monday. The Liberals have held power since 2015, but only in a minority capacity since the 2019 election. The key issues for Canadians this election cycle are inflation, housing, cost of living and international relations, according to polls. Diversifying trade and growing energy production have been promoted by both Conservative and Liberal leaders — and prime minister hopefuls — looking to become less dependent on US customers and kickstart a lagging economy. Canada is the world's fourth-largest oil producer with over 5.7mn b/d of output, and the fifth-largest natural gas producer at 18 Bcf/d, according to the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP). The US is Canada's largest foreign customer of each, but verbal and economic attacks on Canada by US president Donald Trump have prompted politicians and Canadians at large to reexamine their trade strategies. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre says Liberal policies over the past decade have stifled the country's productivity and allowed it to become the weakest performer in the G7. Liberal policy needs to be undone so Canada can "unleash" its oil and gas sector to better protect its sovereignty , says Poilievre. Liberal leader Mark Carney's campaign has centered heavily on Trump, emphasizing the threat comes from abroad, not within. Carney wants to make Canada an "energy superpower" but maintains current legislation is the way to do it, despite calls to the contrary by oil and gas executives . A fresh face for the Liberals and a foe to rally against in Trump has lifted the fortunes of the party, which some critics speculated only months ago could lose most of its seats. As recent as January, the Liberals were facing a 26-point deficit in polls, but the party mounted a comeback at the expense of both the Conservatives and the left-leaning NDP. The Conservatives would likely have to overtake the Liberals by several percentage points to win enough seats to form a government, based on the past two elections in 2019 and 2021. More Canadians voted for Conservatives than any other party in those races, but the Liberals came away with the most seats, owing to their success in winning tight races. The last polls close on Canada's west coast at 10pm ET with preliminary results expected shortly after. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Oil services spell out initial cost of Trump’s tariffs
Oil services spell out initial cost of Trump’s tariffs
New York, 28 April (Argus) — The world's top oil field service firms are starting to count the cost of US president Donald Trump's unprecedented trade wars, amid a challenging outlook caused by tariff-related volatility that has sent oil prices lower and sparked fears of a recession. Halliburton forecasts a 2-3¢/share hit to second-quarter results, with its completion and production unit — which includes the hydraulic fracturing (fracking) business — accounting for 60pc of the expected fallout, and drilling and evaluation making up the rest. Baker Hughes says full-year profit could be reduced by $100mn-200mn, assuming that the tariff levels in effect under Trump's 90-day pause remain in place for the rest of the year. While SLB, the world's biggest oil field contractor, says it is to early to fully assess the potential impact of tariffs, the company is taking proactive steps to shore up its supply chain and manufacturing network, as well as pursuing exemptions and engaging with customers to recover related cost increases. Crude prices slumped to a four-year low earlier this month after Trump's tariffs threw global markets into a tailspin. The oil field service industry argues that it is better prepared for a downturn this time around, given a focus on capital discipline and returns in recent years. Yet the double blow of tariffs and an accelerated return of Opec+ barrels to the market could cause further headaches — even as firms move to mitigate the impact. "We need a bit more clarity and stability in the structure of tariffs so that we can really understand what levers we can pull and then what the overall outcome is going to be," Halliburton's chief financial officer, Eric Carre, says. "There's just a lot of moving parts right now." Global upstream spending will be "down by high-single digits" this year, Baker Hughes says. The company forecasts a low-double digit decline in North America spending by its clients, and a mid-to-high single-digit drop internationally. "A sustained move lower in oil prices or worsening tariffs would introduce further downside risk to this outlook," chief executive Lorenzo Simonelli argues. "The prospects of an oversupplied oil market, rising tariffs, uncertainty in Mexico and activity weakness in Saudi Arabia are collectively constraining international upstream spending levels." While Baker Hughes' "strong weighting" to international markets and a diversified and local supply chain provide a cushion, the company is seeking to limit the tariff impact for its industrial and energy technology division by exploring domestic procurement alternatives and improving its global manufacturing footprint. The Wright stuff Liberty Energy , whose former chief executive Chris Wright was picked by Trump to serve as his energy secretary, expects modest tariff-related inflationary impacts on engines and other electric components, some of which are being offset by lower prices or volume discounts. "All said, we don't anticipate a significant direct impact from tariffs at the moment," chief financial officer Michael Stock says. Shale producers are also starting to figure out how they may be affected, with Diamondback Energy reviewing its operating plan for the rest of the year. "Should low commodity prices persist or worsen, Diamondback has the flexibility to reduce activity to maximise free cash flow generation," the company says. And Devon Energy aims to boost annual pre-tax free cash flow by $1bn, partly by doubling down on efficiency savings — a strategy that has gained momentum from the recent tariff turmoil. "Given the challenging market and shifting competitive landscape, this is the right moment to focus internally and improve our profitability," chief executive Clay Gaspar says. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Trump tweaks tariff burden on US automakers
Trump tweaks tariff burden on US automakers
Washington, 29 April (Argus) — President Donald Trump's administration has offered to offset the 25pc tariff on foreign-made auto parts, scheduled to start on 3 May, and to exempt auto parts from any additional tariffs they face from other import taxes imposed in recent months. Trump, who today announced the change in tariffs ahead of a political rally in Michigan, a key US car manufacturing state, cast his decision in terms of giving US automakers a reprieve from his tariff policies. But as in other cases when he changed his mind on tariffs, the US auto industry will still face a substantial burden from import taxes imposed since Trump took office. Trump's 25pc tariffs on foreign cars went into effect on 3 April, and a 25pc tariff on imported auto parts was scheduled to go into effect on 3 May. Under an executive order Trump signed today, the auto makers can be partially refunded the cost of the tariffs on imported auto parts, subject to a cap of 15pc of the value of an assembled car until April 2026, dropping to a 10pc cap until April 2027. The refund cannot exceed 3.75pc of a car's manufacturer suggested retail price in the first year, dropping to 2.5pc in the second year. The idea behind the adjustment is to force US automakers to become wholly reliant on auto parts made in the US in the next two years, commerce secretary Howard Lutnick explained. In theory, at least, a US-made car that is made with 85pc domestic components would not face an additional tariff cost. A separate executive order clarifies that the tariffs on foreign-made cars and auto parts will not be calculated in addition to any other tariffs Trump has imposed on Canada and Mexico, and will not be counted on top of tariffs imposed on steel, aluminum and their derivative products. "This is just a little transition," Trump told reporters at the White House today, announcing the latest reversal of his tariff policy. "We're just giving them a little chance, because in some cases, they can't get the parts fast enough." By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Carney’s Liberals to form next Canadian government
Carney’s Liberals to form next Canadian government
Calgary, 28 April (Argus) — Canadian prime minister Mark Carney and his Liberal party are projected to win the country's 45th general election, but securing a majority of seats in Parliament is unclear with many tight races still to be determined. The Liberal party is on track to take 156 of the 343 seats up for grabs, according to preliminary results from Elections Canada at about 11pm ET. The Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, will form the official opposition with an estimated 144 seats so far. The Liberals seat count is comparable to the 160 won in the 2021 election while the Conservatives are up from 119. If the Liberals win a minority they would need the support of other parties to pass legislation, as they did prior to the election. The win completes the comeback for the Liberal party which just a few months ago languished in polls as dissatisfaction of then-prime minister Justin Trudeau rose. Carney and his experience navigating economic crises resonated with voters as they found themselves in a trade war initiated by US president Donald Trump. The US has imposed a 25pc tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum since 13 March and Canadian automobiles since 9 April. Canada has retaliated to each wave with tariffs of their own. Canadian oil and gas has been exempt from US tariffs but Trump's trade action has led many politicians and Canadians at large to re-examine the need to diversify its energy exports. Trade corridors, pipelines and LNG facilities were promoted by both Carney and Poilievre. Carney and Trump agreed in late-March that broader, comprehensive economic negotiations would happen after the election. The Liberals have held power since 2015, but only in a minority capacity since the 2019 election. Inflation, housing, Trump top concerns The key issues for Canadians this election cycle were inflation, housing, cost of living and international relations — particularly the aggressive moves from the US, according to polls. Diversifying trade and growing energy production have been promoted by both Conservative and Liberal leaders — and prime minister hopefuls — looking to become less dependent on US customers and kickstart a lagging economy. Canada is the world's fourth-largest oil producer with over 5.7mn b/d of output, and the fifth-largest natural gas producer at 18 Bcf/d, according to the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP). The US is Canada's largest foreign customer of each, but verbal and economic attacks on Canada by Trump have prompted politicians and Canadians at large to reexamine their trade strategies. Poilievre says Liberal policies over the past decade have stifled the country's productivity and allowed it to become the weakest performer in the G7. Liberal policy needs to be undone so Canada can "unleash" its oil and gas sector to better protect its sovereignty , says Poilievre. Carney's campaign had centered heavily on Trump, emphasizing the threat comes from abroad, not within. Carney wants to make Canada an "energy superpower" but maintains current legislation is the way to do it, despite calls to the contrary by oil and gas executives . By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Canadians go to polls in general election
Canadians go to polls in general election
Calgary, 28 April (Argus) — Voting in Canada is underway today with the governing Liberal party looking to complete a comeback in polling against the Conservative party to clinch its fourth-straight term. There are 343 seats up for grabs in Canada's Parliament and polls throughout the five-week campaign indicate the Liberals have a reasonable chance to win a majority, which would allow them to implement policies without needing the support of other parties. Latest polling figures show the Liberals at 43pc, the Conservatives at 39pc, the New Democratic Party (NDP) at 8pc, the Bloq Quebecois at 6pc, and the Green Party at 2pc, according to poll aggregator Canada338 on Monday. The Liberals have held power since 2015, but only in a minority capacity since the 2019 election. The key issues for Canadians this election cycle are inflation, housing, cost of living and international relations, according to polls. Diversifying trade and growing energy production have been promoted by both Conservative and Liberal leaders — and prime minister hopefuls — looking to become less dependent on US customers and kickstart a lagging economy. Canada is the world's fourth-largest oil producer with over 5.7mn b/d of output, and the fifth-largest natural gas producer at 18 Bcf/d, according to the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP). The US is Canada's largest foreign customer of each, but verbal and economic attacks on Canada by US president Donald Trump have prompted politicians and Canadians at large to reexamine their trade strategies. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre says Liberal policies over the past decade have stifled the country's productivity and allowed it to become the weakest performer in the G7. Liberal policy needs to be undone so Canada can "unleash" its oil and gas sector to better protect its sovereignty , says Poilievre. Liberal leader Mark Carney's campaign has centered heavily on Trump, emphasizing the threat comes from abroad, not within. Carney wants to make Canada an "energy superpower" but maintains current legislation is the way to do it, despite calls to the contrary by oil and gas executives . A fresh face for the Liberals and a foe to rally against in Trump has lifted the fortunes of the party, which some critics speculated only months ago could lose most of its seats. As recent as January, the Liberals were facing a 26-point deficit in polls, but the party mounted a comeback at the expense of both the Conservatives and the left-leaning NDP. The Conservatives would likely have to overtake the Liberals by several percentage points to win enough seats to form a government, based on the past two elections in 2019 and 2021. More Canadians voted for Conservatives than any other party in those races, but the Liberals came away with the most seats, owing to their success in winning tight races. The last polls close on Canada's west coast at 10pm ET with preliminary results expected shortly after. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Oil services spell out initial cost of Trump’s tariffs
Oil services spell out initial cost of Trump’s tariffs
New York, 28 April (Argus) — The world's top oil field service firms are starting to count the cost of US president Donald Trump's unprecedented trade wars, amid a challenging outlook caused by tariff-related volatility that has sent oil prices lower and sparked fears of a recession. Halliburton forecasts a 2-3¢/share hit to second-quarter results, with its completion and production unit — which includes the hydraulic fracturing (fracking) business — accounting for 60pc of the expected fallout, and drilling and evaluation making up the rest. Baker Hughes says full-year profit could be reduced by $100mn-200mn, assuming that the tariff levels in effect under Trump's 90-day pause remain in place for the rest of the year. While SLB, the world's biggest oil field contractor, says it is to early to fully assess the potential impact of tariffs, the company is taking proactive steps to shore up its supply chain and manufacturing network, as well as pursuing exemptions and engaging with customers to recover related cost increases. Crude prices slumped to a four-year low earlier this month after Trump's tariffs threw global markets into a tailspin. The oil field service industry argues that it is better prepared for a downturn this time around, given a focus on capital discipline and returns in recent years. Yet the double blow of tariffs and an accelerated return of Opec+ barrels to the market could cause further headaches — even as firms move to mitigate the impact. "We need a bit more clarity and stability in the structure of tariffs so that we can really understand what levers we can pull and then what the overall outcome is going to be," Halliburton's chief financial officer, Eric Carre, says. "There's just a lot of moving parts right now." Global upstream spending will be "down by high-single digits" this year, Baker Hughes says. The company forecasts a low-double digit decline in North America spending by its clients, and a mid-to-high single-digit drop internationally. "A sustained move lower in oil prices or worsening tariffs would introduce further downside risk to this outlook," chief executive Lorenzo Simonelli argues. "The prospects of an oversupplied oil market, rising tariffs, uncertainty in Mexico and activity weakness in Saudi Arabia are collectively constraining international upstream spending levels." While Baker Hughes' "strong weighting" to international markets and a diversified and local supply chain provide a cushion, the company is seeking to limit the tariff impact for its industrial and energy technology division by exploring domestic procurement alternatives and improving its global manufacturing footprint. The Wright stuff Liberty Energy , whose former chief executive Chris Wright was picked by Trump to serve as his energy secretary, expects modest tariff-related inflationary impacts on engines and other electric components, some of which are being offset by lower prices or volume discounts. "All said, we don't anticipate a significant direct impact from tariffs at the moment," chief financial officer Michael Stock says. Shale producers are also starting to figure out how they may be affected, with Diamondback Energy reviewing its operating plan for the rest of the year. "Should low commodity prices persist or worsen, Diamondback has the flexibility to reduce activity to maximise free cash flow generation," the company says. And Devon Energy aims to boost annual pre-tax free cash flow by $1bn, partly by doubling down on efficiency savings — a strategy that has gained momentum from the recent tariff turmoil. "Given the challenging market and shifting competitive landscape, this is the right moment to focus internally and improve our profitability," chief executive Clay Gaspar says. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Phillips 66 ups crude switching at Texas refinery
Phillips 66 ups crude switching at Texas refinery
Houston, 25 April (Argus) — US independent refiner Phillips 66 completed a project in the first quarter that allows it to adjust more of the crude slate at its 265,000 b/d Sweeny refinery in Old Ocean, Texas. The project will allow the company to switch about 40,000 b/d between heavy and light crude, Phillips 66 said today in an earnings release. The flexibility project was completed during a first quarter turnaround. Several US refiners are exploring ways to run more lighter crude grades in the wake of new US tariffs and other actions that may limit the supply of heavier and medium grade crudes imported from trading partners. By Eunice Bridges Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Southwest Airlines shortens outlook to 2Q only
Southwest Airlines shortens outlook to 2Q only
Houston, 24 April (Argus) — Southwest Airlines withdrew its full-year 2025 and 2026 financial forecasts due to economic uncertainty caused by US tariffs. The US-based passenger airline limited its outlook to just the second quarter 2025 during its first quarter earnings release on Thursday, saying a projected economic slow-down would pressure unit revenue to be flat and possibly fall by 4pc compared to the second quarter 2024. In the second quarter available seat miles (ASM) — a measure of capacity — are expected to rise by 1-2pc compared to the same quarter in 2024. First quarter ASMs were down by 1.9pc to 41.3bn from the same three-months in 2024, which was in-line with their expectations. Southwest's first quarter load factor, or the percentage of seats filled, dropped by 4.4pc from the prior year to 73.9pc. First quarter total operating expenses, including jet fuel, dropped by 2.2pc from the previous year to $6.65bn. Southwest paid $2.49¢/USG for jet fuel in the first quarter, a decrease of 16pc from 2024. Fuel efficiency improved in the first quaer due more fuel-efficient aircraft, with 500mn USG consumed, down by 4.6pc compared to the same quarter in 2024. Expected lower jet fuel prices should help ease operating cost in the upcoming months. Southwest expects to pay $2.20¢/USG to $2.3¢/USG for jet fuel in the next quarter. Southwest narrowed its first quarter 2025 net loss to $149mn from $231mn a year earlier. By Carrie Carter Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
United Airlines to cut 3Q capacity on uncertainty
United Airlines to cut 3Q capacity on uncertainty
Houston, 15 April (Argus) — United Airlines plans to decrease the number of flights it operates in the third quarter because of lower passenger numbers and economic uncertainties. The US-based air carrier said that it will be removing four percentage points of scheduled domestic capacity in the third quarter of 2025 and expects to retire 21 aircraft earlier than previously planned. Global economic uncertainty prompted the company to provide two scenarios for for its financial results for 2025 — one based on the US economy remaining weaker but stable, and the other for the US entering a recession. In the stable scenario, assuming current fuel price outlooks, the company expects a $11.50-$13.50 per share profit. Under the recessionary scenario profits would be in the $7-9/share range. Despite the possibility of slower busines, the airline plans to expand its investments at Chicago O'Hare International Airport in Chicago, Illinois, with six additional gates and plans to expand at San Francisco's international airport as well. 1Q results In the first quarter domestic passenger load factor — a measurement of capacity utilization — declined by 3.4 percentage points to 80.3pc compared to the same quarter in 2024. United's revenue passenger miles (RPM) — a measurement of total miles flown by paying passengers — increased by 3.6pc to 59.5bn miles in the first quarter compared to the previous year. Available seat miles (ASM) — a measure of capacity — rose by 4.9pc to 75.2bn miles in the quarter. United's average fuel cost decreased by 12.2pc to $2.53/USG during the first quarter. The airline consumed 4.1pc more fuel in the quarter. Total operating expenses rose by 1.3pc to $12.6bn in the quarter while total operating revenue increased by 5.4pc to $13.2bn. The airline reported $387mn profit in the first quarter, up from a $124mn loss reported a year earlier. By Hunter Fite Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
IEA slashes 2025 global refinery runs growth forecast
IEA slashes 2025 global refinery runs growth forecast
London, 15 April (Argus) — The IEA has sharply lowered its forecast for refinery run growth this year, citing escalating tensions in global trade. In its latest Oil Market Report (OMR) published today, the energy watchdog said it expects growth in global crude runs of 340,000 b/d, down by 40pc from its previous forecast of 570,000 b/d. The IEA sees total global crude runs averaging 83.2mn b/d this year. Increased throughput from non-OECD countries still drives this year's growth, with the IEA expecting an increase of 830,000 b/d to 47.6mn b/d. The IEA has not adjusted this figure, as stronger runs in China through the first quarter of this year and higher Russian forecasts have offset downgrades in other non-OECD countries. Chinese crude runs in January and February averaged 15.2mn b/d, around 470,000 b/d higher than the IEA's forecast, it said. The body raised its Russian forecasts from the second quarter as Ukrainian attacks on Russian infrastructure have slowed. The IEA forecasts OECD refinery runs will fall by 490,000 b/d this year because of refinery closures, resulting in a cut from its previous forecast of 100,000 b/d, to 35.6mn b/d. OECD Europe runs are forecast to fall by 310,000 b/d on the year to 10.9mn b/d. OECD crude runs rose by 200,000 b/d on the year in February, 40,000 b/d higher than the IEA expected. Throughput was particularly weak in the first quarter of 2024, when extreme cold cut US run rates. In Mexico, state-owned Pemex's 340,000 b/d Olmeca refinery has still not reached stable operations having started up in mid-2024. The refinery ran no crude in January because of crude quality constraints, the IEA said, and February output there was 7,000 b/d. The IEA estimates the refinery's second crude unit will come online in the fourth quarter. The IEA said refiners will add more than 1mn b/d of global capacity in 2026, but it forecast growths in crude runs of only 300,000 b/d for that year. Assuming all new and expanded refineries come into operation by then, producers will have to cut runs at older refineries, it said. Capacity additions will be largest in Asia-Pacific. The IEA expects China's 320,000 b/d Panjin refinery to come online in the second half of 2026, and for producers to add capacity of 480,000 b/d in India. It sees growth in crude runs as focused on the Mideast Gulf, and runs across the OECD falling. By Josh Michalowski Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Canadians go to polls in general election
Canadians go to polls in general election
Calgary, 28 April (Argus) — Voting in Canada is underway today with the governing Liberal party looking to complete a comeback in polling against the Conservative party to clinch its fourth-straight term. There are 343 seats up for grabs in Canada's Parliament and polls throughout the five-week campaign indicate the Liberals have a reasonable chance to win a majority, which would allow them to implement policies without needing the support of other parties. Latest polling figures show the Liberals at 43pc, the Conservatives at 39pc, the New Democratic Party (NDP) at 8pc, the Bloq Quebecois at 6pc, and the Green Party at 2pc, according to poll aggregator Canada338 on Monday. The Liberals have held power since 2015, but only in a minority capacity since the 2019 election. The key issues for Canadians this election cycle are inflation, housing, cost of living and international relations, according to polls. Diversifying trade and growing energy production have been promoted by both Conservative and Liberal leaders — and prime minister hopefuls — looking to become less dependent on US customers and kickstart a lagging economy. Canada is the world's fourth-largest oil producer with over 5.7mn b/d of output, and the fifth-largest natural gas producer at 18 Bcf/d, according to the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP). The US is Canada's largest foreign customer of each, but verbal and economic attacks on Canada by US president Donald Trump have prompted politicians and Canadians at large to reexamine their trade strategies. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre says Liberal policies over the past decade have stifled the country's productivity and allowed it to become the weakest performer in the G7. Liberal policy needs to be undone so Canada can "unleash" its oil and gas sector to better protect its sovereignty , says Poilievre. Liberal leader Mark Carney's campaign has centered heavily on Trump, emphasizing the threat comes from abroad, not within. Carney wants to make Canada an "energy superpower" but maintains current legislation is the way to do it, despite calls to the contrary by oil and gas executives . A fresh face for the Liberals and a foe to rally against in Trump has lifted the fortunes of the party, which some critics speculated only months ago could lose most of its seats. As recent as January, the Liberals were facing a 26-point deficit in polls, but the party mounted a comeback at the expense of both the Conservatives and the left-leaning NDP. The Conservatives would likely have to overtake the Liberals by several percentage points to win enough seats to form a government, based on the past two elections in 2019 and 2021. More Canadians voted for Conservatives than any other party in those races, but the Liberals came away with the most seats, owing to their success in winning tight races. The last polls close on Canada's west coast at 10pm ET with preliminary results expected shortly after. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Oil services spell out initial cost of Trump’s tariffs
Oil services spell out initial cost of Trump’s tariffs
New York, 28 April (Argus) — The world's top oil field service firms are starting to count the cost of US president Donald Trump's unprecedented trade wars, amid a challenging outlook caused by tariff-related volatility that has sent oil prices lower and sparked fears of a recession. Halliburton forecasts a 2-3¢/share hit to second-quarter results, with its completion and production unit — which includes the hydraulic fracturing (fracking) business — accounting for 60pc of the expected fallout, and drilling and evaluation making up the rest. Baker Hughes says full-year profit could be reduced by $100mn-200mn, assuming that the tariff levels in effect under Trump's 90-day pause remain in place for the rest of the year. While SLB, the world's biggest oil field contractor, says it is to early to fully assess the potential impact of tariffs, the company is taking proactive steps to shore up its supply chain and manufacturing network, as well as pursuing exemptions and engaging with customers to recover related cost increases. Crude prices slumped to a four-year low earlier this month after Trump's tariffs threw global markets into a tailspin. The oil field service industry argues that it is better prepared for a downturn this time around, given a focus on capital discipline and returns in recent years. Yet the double blow of tariffs and an accelerated return of Opec+ barrels to the market could cause further headaches — even as firms move to mitigate the impact. "We need a bit more clarity and stability in the structure of tariffs so that we can really understand what levers we can pull and then what the overall outcome is going to be," Halliburton's chief financial officer, Eric Carre, says. "There's just a lot of moving parts right now." Global upstream spending will be "down by high-single digits" this year, Baker Hughes says. The company forecasts a low-double digit decline in North America spending by its clients, and a mid-to-high single-digit drop internationally. "A sustained move lower in oil prices or worsening tariffs would introduce further downside risk to this outlook," chief executive Lorenzo Simonelli argues. "The prospects of an oversupplied oil market, rising tariffs, uncertainty in Mexico and activity weakness in Saudi Arabia are collectively constraining international upstream spending levels." While Baker Hughes' "strong weighting" to international markets and a diversified and local supply chain provide a cushion, the company is seeking to limit the tariff impact for its industrial and energy technology division by exploring domestic procurement alternatives and improving its global manufacturing footprint. The Wright stuff Liberty Energy , whose former chief executive Chris Wright was picked by Trump to serve as his energy secretary, expects modest tariff-related inflationary impacts on engines and other electric components, some of which are being offset by lower prices or volume discounts. "All said, we don't anticipate a significant direct impact from tariffs at the moment," chief financial officer Michael Stock says. Shale producers are also starting to figure out how they may be affected, with Diamondback Energy reviewing its operating plan for the rest of the year. "Should low commodity prices persist or worsen, Diamondback has the flexibility to reduce activity to maximise free cash flow generation," the company says. And Devon Energy aims to boost annual pre-tax free cash flow by $1bn, partly by doubling down on efficiency savings — a strategy that has gained momentum from the recent tariff turmoil. "Given the challenging market and shifting competitive landscape, this is the right moment to focus internally and improve our profitability," chief executive Clay Gaspar says. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
SLB taking steps to offset tariffs: Update
SLB taking steps to offset tariffs: Update
Adds details from call. New York, 25 April (Argus) — Oilfield services contractor SLB said it is taking proactive steps to offset the impact of US tariffs by reviewing its supply chain and manufacturing network, pursuing exemptions and talking to customers to recover related cost increases. "We have made progress on all these fronts in the last two weeks, and we are stepping up those actions across the organization as we speak," chief financial officer Stephane Biguet told analysts after the company reported first quarter results today. SLB is partly protected from the overall tariff fallout given 80pc of total revenue comes from international markets, as well as its in-country manufacturing and local sourcing efforts. But other areas are exposed to increasing tariffs, such as imports of raw materials into the US, as well as exports from the US subject to retaliatory action. Under the current tariff framework, most of the likely effects come from trade activity between the US and China. "As the second quarter progresses and ongoing trade negotiations continue, we will hopefully gain better visibility of where tariffs may settle and the extent to which we will be able to mitigate their effects on our business," Biguet said. In the current climate, SLB says customers are likely to take a more cautious approach to near-term activity. Given industry headwinds from volatile oil prices and demand risks, SLB expects global upstream investment to decline this year from 2024, with customer spending in the Middle East and Asia holding up better than elsewhere. SLB reported a "subdued" start to the year as revenue fell 3pc in the first quarter from the same three months of 2024. The company noted higher activity in parts of the Middle East, North Africa, Argentina and offshore US, along with strong growth in its data center and digital businesses in North America. However, those gains were more than offset by a larger-than-expected slowdown in Mexico, a slow start in Saudi Arabia and offshore Africa, and a steep decline in Russia. Even so, SLB remains committed to returning a minimum of $4bn to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks this year. "The industry may experience a potential shift of priorities driven by changes in the global economy, fluctuating commodity prices and evolving tariffs — all of which could impact upstream oil and gas investment and, in turn, affect demand for our products and services, said chief executive officer Olivier Le Peuch. "In this uncertain environment, we remain committed to protecting our margins, generating strong cash flow and delivering consistent value." First quarter profit of $797mn was down from $1.07bn in the same three months of 2024. Revenue of $8.5bn compared with $8.7bn last year. SLB is the last of the top oilfield services firms to post first-quarter results. Halliburton and Baker Hughes reported earlier this week. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US states including New York sue Trump over tariffs
US states including New York sue Trump over tariffs
New York, 23 April (Argus) — A coalition of 12 states including New York is suing the administration of President Donald Trump for imposing "illegal" tariffs that threaten to raise inflation and derail economic growth. The lawsuit, filed by attorneys general from the 12 states, argues that Congress has not granted the president the authority to impose the tariffs and the administration violated the law by imposing them through executive orders, social media posts, and agency orders. "President Trump's reckless tariffs have skyrocketed costs for consumers and unleashed economic chaos across the country," said New York governor Kathy Hochul (D). "New York is standing up to fight back against the largest federal tax hike in American history." The lawsuit alleges the tariffs will increase unemployment, threaten wages by slowing economic growth and push up the cost of key goods from electronics to building materials. The lawsuit, which was filed in the United States Court of International Trade, seeks a court order halting the tariffs. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Recycled resin importers caught in tariff uncertainty
Recycled resin importers caught in tariff uncertainty
Houston, 11 April (Argus) — US President Donald Trump's evolving tariff policies have created tremendous uncertainty for US importers of recycled polymers, and constant halts and flip-flopping from the administration have led some to pause their US operations. Multiple importers told Argus that the constantly changing US tariffs on goods have upended business plans, and forced them to pause their US operations for the time being due to uncertainty about the taxes their material will face when it reaches US shores. "You have to have some confidence that conditions will hold in order to import," one trader told Argus . Trump's tariff rollout began on 1 February, when he announced that China would face a 10pc universal tariff, and the US's two largest trading partners, Mexico and Canada, would face 25pc universal tariffs. At the time, market participants speculated that the 25pc tariffs on Canada and Mexico would make operations and sales more expensive for Mexican and Canadian recyclers, particularly those that trade bales or finished resin across the US border. After some negotiations between world leaders, the tariffs on Canada and Mexico were delayed for 30 days, though the 10pc tariff on China went into effect as planned. The 25pc universal tariffs on Canada and Mexico were pushed back again on 6 March, but tariffs on aluminum — a significant competitor to rPET packaging — went into place on 12 March. The tariffs on aluminum have not been rescinded or paused, and the extra cost for imported aluminum as a result of the tariff could incentivize US consumer goods companies to use more PET in their packaging. On 9 April, the US put into place varying reciprocal tariffs on a number of countries that export recycled resin to the US, including India, Malaysia and Vietnam. While rPET and vPET pellets were excluded from the reciprocal tariffs, importers of rPE, rPP and PET waste were not excluded from the tariff. The same day, the reciprocal tariffs were pushed back 90 days in favor of a 10pc universal tariff that excludes Canada and Mexico. China and the US's reciprocal tariffs have escalated into a trade war, and currently material from China faces a 145pc tariff. Since the price is too high for most importers to be willing to pay, in essence all recycled resin imports from China are halted. China is one of the largest buyers of US virgin polyethylene https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2675420), and the current trade war with China has the potential to increase domestic supply as exporters are forced to find new buyers for resin. Increased competition from oversupplied virgin resin could pull down recycled resin pricing. Until some stability in tariff policy returns to the US, traders and importers will continue to turn to other destinations outside the US to sell their recycled resin. By Zach Kluver Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
New tariffs could upend US tallow imports: Correction
New tariffs could upend US tallow imports: Correction
Corrects description of options for avoiding feedstock tariffs in 12th paragraph. Story originally published 3 April. New York, 10 April (Argus) — New US tariffs on nearly all foreign products could deter further imports of beef tallow, a fast-rising biofuel feedstock and food ingredient that had until now largely evaded President Donald Trump's efforts to reshape global trade. Tallow was the most used feedstock for US biomass-based diesel production in January for the first month ever, with consumption by pound rising month to month despite sharp declines in actual biorefining and in use of competing feedstocks. The beef byproduct benefits from US policies, including a new federal tax credit known as "45Z", that offer greater subsidies to fuel derived from waste than fuel derived from first-generation crops. Much of that tallow is sourced domestically, but the US also imported more than 880,000t of tallow last year, up 29pc from just two years earlier. The majority of those imports last year came from Brazil, which until now has faced a small 0.43¢/kg (19.5¢/lb) tariff, and from Australia, which was exempt from any tallow-specific tariffs under a free trade agreement with US. But starting on 5 April, both countries will be subject to at least the new 10pc charge on foreign imports. There are some carveouts from tariffs for certain energy products, but animal fats are not included. Some other major suppliers — like Argentina, Uruguay, and New Zealand — will soon have new tariffs in place too, although tallow from Canada is for now unaffected because it is covered by the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement. Brazil tallow shipments to the US totaled around 300,000t in 2024, marking an all-time high, but tallow shipments during the fourth quarter of 2024 fell under the 2023 levels as uncertainty about future tax policy slowed buying interest. Feedstock demand in general in the US has remained muted to start this year because of poor biofuel production margins, and that has extended to global tallow flows. Tallow suppliers in Brazil for instance were already experiencing decreased interest from US producers before tariffs. Brazil tallow prices for export last closed at $1,080/t on 28 March, rising about 4pc year-to-date amid support from the 45Z guidance and aid from Brazil's growing biodiesel industry, which is paying a hefty premium for tallow compared to exports. While the large majority of Brazilian tallow exports end up in the US, Australian suppliers have more flexibility and could send more volume to Singapore instead if tariffs deter US buyers. Export prices out of Australia peaked this year at $1,185/t on 4 March but have since trended lower to last close at $1,050/t on 1 April. In general, market participants say international tallow suppliers would have to drop offers to keep trade flows intact. Other policy shifts affect flows Even as US farm groups clamored for more muscular foreign feedstock limits over much of the last year, tallow had until now largely dodged any significant restrictions. Recent US guidance around 45Z treats all tallow, whether produced in the US or shipped long distances to reach the US, the same. Other foreign feedstocks were treated more harshly, with the same guidance providing no pathway at all for road fuels from foreign used cooking oil and also pinning the carbon intensity of canola oil — largely from Canada — as generally too high to claim any subsidy. But tariffs on major suppliers of tallow to the US, and the threat of additional charges if countries retaliate, could give refiners pause. Demand could rise for domestic animal fats or alternatively for domestic vegetable oils that can also be refined into fuel, especially if retaliatory tariffs cut off global markets for US farm products like soybean oil. There is also risk if Republicans in the Trump administration or Congress reshape rules around 45Z to penalize foreign feedstocks. At the same time, a minimum 10pc charge for tallow outside North America is a more manageable price to pay compared to other feedstocks — including a far-greater collection of charges on Chinese used cooking oil. And if the US sets biofuel blend mandates as high as some oil and farm groups are pushing , strong demand could leave producers with little choice but to continue importing at least some feedstock from abroad to continue making fuel. Not all US renewable diesel producers will be equally impacted by tariffs either. Some tariffs are eligible for drawbacks, meaning that producers could potentially recover tariffs they paid on feedstocks for fuel that is ultimately exported. And multiple biofuel producers are located in foreign-trade zones, a US program that works similarly to the duty drawbacks, and have applied for permission to avoid some tariffs on imported feedstocks for fuel eventually shipped abroad. Jurisdictions like the EU and UK, where sustainable aviation fuel mandates took effect this year, are attractive destinations. And there is still strong demand from the US food sector, with edible tallow prices in Chicago up 18pc so far this year. Trump allies, including his top health official, have pushed tallow as an alternative to seed oils. By Cole Martin and Jamuna Gautam Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
EU exempts most LLDPE imports from retaliatory tariffs
EU exempts most LLDPE imports from retaliatory tariffs
London, 10 April (Argus) — Most linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) imports will be exempt from EU retaliatory tariffs should the bloc go ahead with countermeasures against the US, according to a draft list of products seen by Argus . The EU has put the retaliatory tariffs on hold for now, after US president Donald Trump announced on Wednesday that he is pausing his planned "reciprocal" tariffs for 90 days. The European Commission has yet to publish the final list of US products that would be subject to any countermeasures, but before Trump's surprise move, the HS code 39014000 was removed. The list was approved by a majority vote of EU member states on Wednesday . Other HS codes of PE grades were included in the draft list and are earmarked for 25pc tariffs. It is now uncertain if and when the EU tariffs might be implemented. Prior to Trump's u-turn, 15 May was the likely date for EU tariffs on US PE imports. But "everything is paused," European Commission trade spokesperson Olof Gill told Argus . LLDPE imports into the EU are categorised under the HS codes 39014000 and 39011010. The former made up just over half of all PE imports to the EU from the US in 2024, while the latter accounted for less than 12pc. The EU's PE imports from the US totalled 1.8mn t last year. Market participants told Argus that the EU will remain dependant on LLDPE imports from the US for specific grades, which include LLDPE butene and metallocene LLDPE. The UK also excluded US-origin LLDPE imports falling under the HS code 390140 from its provisional list of products that could be subject to retaliatory tariffs. By Sam Hashmi and Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US PE exports could lose market share on new tariffs
US PE exports could lose market share on new tariffs
Houston, 4 April (Argus) — US polyethylene (PE) traders are concerned that retaliatory tariffs announced this week by China and being considered by the European Union will close the door to two of the biggest markets for US resin exports. China announced today it will impose a 34pc tariff on all imports from the US from 10 April, while the EU is in the process of finalizing countermeasures this week, all in response to widespread tariffs announced by US president Donald Trump on 2 April. "This closes off China," said one US export trader. "And it looks like a full stop in Europe too." The US exported 2.4mn t of PE to China in 2024, representing 16.8pc of total US PE exports, according to data from Global Trade Tracker. Exports to the EU totaled 2.26mn t, representing 15pc of all US exports. US PE exports in 2024 totaled 14.2mn t, with exports representing 47pc of total sales last year. During the previous Trump administration, China provided waivers for certain tariffs, including on some PE grades. Some market participants have said that may be possible again, while others have said they see it as less likely, as China has become more self-sufficient, and has other alternative suppliers, such as the Middle East. "(China) is in a better position to impose tariffs on PE today than they were in 2018," said one North American PE producer. It will be difficult for US producers to make up for the loss of market share in China and the EU, which could result in producers needing to slow operating rates. For now, markets in Africa, Latin America and southeast Asia, remain open for US material, but traders are concerned that other top trading partners could also retaliate against the US, closing off additional markets. "There are not enough places to go with this stuff," the trader said. With limited export opportunities, the North American PE producer agreed that production would likely need to slow to keep material from backing up in the domestic market and causing domestic prices to fall. "The last time we saw tariff action from China, there was an impact on the domestic market," the producer said. "Pricing went down." For this week, US PE export pricing has held fairly steady as the market absorbs the tariff news. But market participants said they believe prices could move down in the coming weeks if production is not slowed. By Michelle Klump Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US MAP-DAP premium primed to return on tariffs
US MAP-DAP premium primed to return on tariffs
Houston, 11 April (Argus) — The period of MAP and DAP prices trading near parity will be short-lived because newly-imposed US import tariffs could amplify MAP supply woes, market participants told Argus . MAP and DAP prices have traded in close proximity since early January, diverting from the significant MAP premium seen last spring and summer when a surplus of DAP was imported into the US. After limited MAP barge trading in March, activity accelerated at Nola this week as it became clearer that all non-North American phosphate imports would face at least 10pc import tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump starting last week. The Nola MAP price was assessed at a midpoint of $636.50/st fob this week, up by $9/st from last week, while DAP was assessed $12.50/st higher at $632.50/st fob Nola. Despite the "reciprocal" tariffs on certain phosphate producing countries being lowered to a universal 10pc this week by Trump for 90 days — in line with the original tariff imposed on other countries such as Saudi Arabia and Australia last week — the remaining levy is still enough to deter vessels from coming to Nola, sources said. In response, the Nola MAP price has averaged a $5.75/st premium to the Nola DAP price for April so far, flipping from a $3.88/st average discount in March. That is still a far cry from October 2024, when the Nola MAP price averaged a $61.45/st premium over the Nola DAP. From August through November, the Nola MAP price was 13pc higher on average than DAP. US market participants expect the premium to expand in the coming months as MAP is the preferred product of most farmers during the fall application season, potentially impacting buying decisions for that period. The US from July through February has imported 759,000 metric tonnes (t) of DAP, down by 26pc from the same period last year, according to US Census Bureau data. This lapse in imports for the start of 2025 was an initial driver in DAP's rising premium over MAP. In comparison, MAP imports for the same period have totaled roughly 853,000t, up by just 5pc from the year before. But at least 290,000 t of MAP will need to be brought into the US between now and the start of the summer to equal out with the tonnage imported for the full 2023-24 fertilizer year ahead of fall applications. That is a task that may not be easily achieved given the new tariff on most phosphate imports. One buyer this week said they could consider switching usual MAP demand toward an alternative NPS product heading into October and November given the difficult supply outlook for the US. "We are very much in wait and see mode, trying to see how tariffs evolve and how it works its way into the market in terms of price," another buyer said. The significant premium MAP held last fall also limited overall phosphate applications conducted by farmers, therefore raising the bar for the amount of phosphate fertilizer farmers will need to put into the ground later this year to replenish soil nutrients. By Taylor Zavala US DAP/MAP barge prices Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Most US ferts imports to be tariffed, potash exempt
Most US ferts imports to be tariffed, potash exempt
London, 3 April (Argus) — Nearly every country that sends fertilizer products to the US will be hit with fresh import duties after President Donald Trump yesterday announced reciprocal tariff policies that are likely to increase nutrient prices in the US. According to the White House administration, a baseline 10pc tariff will be imposed on all goods from all countries imported into the US excluding those compliant with the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Non-compliant Canadian and Mexican goods will continue to be charged at a 25pc rate, although potash that is deemed to be non-compliant will pay a reduced rate of 10pc. Imports of goods from other nations will begin paying the baseline 10pc rate on 5 April, while roughly 60 countries were given more specific reciprocal tariff rates based on the rates those countries have placed on US goods. The US imports a significant amount of fertilizer products from other countries to supplement limited domestic production capabilities. Non-North American countries such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Israel, Tunisia, Australia and Trinidad and Tobago are well known names in the fertilizer market as major producers that ship a large amount of product to the US. Under the new sweeping tariff policy Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Trinidad and Tobago and Australia can expect a 10pc duty on all imports sent to the US, while Israel can expect a 17pc duty and Jordan will face a 20pc duty. A 28pc tariff will be applied to imports from Tunisia. Russia is also a major supplier of fertilizers to the US and a reciprocal tariff does not apply to the country. But there is uncertainty as to whether Russia is exempt from the universal 10pc rate applied to other countries. Phosphates Countervailing duties largely blocking Russian and Moroccan phosphates have enabled Saudi Arabia to grow its share of US DAP/MAP imports to 45pc in 2024, according to GTT data. They also opened the door to non-traditional suppliers including Jordan, Egypt and Tunisia, which together accounted for 21pc of US DAP/MAP imports last year. Australia has been a regular supplier to the US, averaging 9pc of imports over the past five years — although this fell to 4pc in 2024. The base 10pc tariff applied to Morocco will add to the countervailing duties in place and act as more of a deterrent. Still, customs data show that 10pc of DAP/MAP imports came from Morocco last year. Mexico supplied 318,000t of DAP/MAP to the US last year, accounting for 14pc of total imports. But the 25pc tariff imposed a month ago will probably stifle this trade flow. MAP barge prices in the US are currently equivalent to the mid-$660s/t cfr Nola. Latest MAP sales to Brazil were at $660/t cfr but indications are now reaching $680/t cfr. After these latest tariffs come into effect on 5 April, US buyers will have to pay more to secure phosphate supply, otherwise cargoes will be drawn to more attractive markets, such as Latin America. Potassium-based products, phos rock escape tariffs The White House also confirmed in an annex that some goods will be exempt from these latest tariffs including certain critical minerals. Goods that will be spared include a number of potassium-based fertilizer products — MOP, SOP, NOP, NPK and magnesium sulphate. Trump last month included potash in the administration's list of American critical minerals, and ordered the US government to fast-track permit reviews for critical minerals projects . The majority of the US' MOP supply is imported, with 98pc/yr coming from other countries, and 85pc of that from Canada, according to TFI data. The US typically imports 11mn-13mn t/yr of MOP, although GTT data show that the US imported close to 14mn t of MOP in 2024. USMCA still effective Tariffs on North American countries Mexico and Canada will continue within the status quo of an executive order issued in early March. All products covered under the USMCA free trade agreement will continue to be imported into the US without tariffs. USMCA compliant products include wholly created goods in Mexico or Canada, such as sulphur, MOP, ammonia and other nitrogen fertilizers, but goods produced with inputs that come from other countries, such as phosphate fertilizers manufactured in Mexico, are at greater risk of being tariffed, depending on how rules of origin outlined in the USMCA are enforced. Phosphate fertilizers produced in Mexico use imported phosphate rock as well as some imported ammonia, while the same products manufactured in Canada, for example, use domestically produced rock. The US fertilizer market is currently barrelling towards the final weeks of the spring application season, where nutrients are put into the ground as crop planting continues. Therefore most fertilizer purchasing for the spring has now taken place. But with the new tariffs applying to the majority of nutrient imports into the US, domestic prices and barge trade activity could accelerate above the norm as the market scurries to secure product before prices move to even more unfavourable levels. By Taylor Zavala, Julia Campbell and Tom Hampson New US import tariffs Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
New tariffs could upend US tallow imports: Correction
New tariffs could upend US tallow imports: Correction
Corrects description of options for avoiding feedstock tariffs in 12th paragraph. Story originally published 3 April. New York, 10 April (Argus) — New US tariffs on nearly all foreign products could deter further imports of beef tallow, a fast-rising biofuel feedstock and food ingredient that had until now largely evaded President Donald Trump's efforts to reshape global trade. Tallow was the most used feedstock for US biomass-based diesel production in January for the first month ever, with consumption by pound rising month to month despite sharp declines in actual biorefining and in use of competing feedstocks. The beef byproduct benefits from US policies, including a new federal tax credit known as "45Z", that offer greater subsidies to fuel derived from waste than fuel derived from first-generation crops. Much of that tallow is sourced domestically, but the US also imported more than 880,000t of tallow last year, up 29pc from just two years earlier. The majority of those imports last year came from Brazil, which until now has faced a small 0.43¢/kg (19.5¢/lb) tariff, and from Australia, which was exempt from any tallow-specific tariffs under a free trade agreement with US. But starting on 5 April, both countries will be subject to at least the new 10pc charge on foreign imports. There are some carveouts from tariffs for certain energy products, but animal fats are not included. Some other major suppliers — like Argentina, Uruguay, and New Zealand — will soon have new tariffs in place too, although tallow from Canada is for now unaffected because it is covered by the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement. Brazil tallow shipments to the US totaled around 300,000t in 2024, marking an all-time high, but tallow shipments during the fourth quarter of 2024 fell under the 2023 levels as uncertainty about future tax policy slowed buying interest. Feedstock demand in general in the US has remained muted to start this year because of poor biofuel production margins, and that has extended to global tallow flows. Tallow suppliers in Brazil for instance were already experiencing decreased interest from US producers before tariffs. Brazil tallow prices for export last closed at $1,080/t on 28 March, rising about 4pc year-to-date amid support from the 45Z guidance and aid from Brazil's growing biodiesel industry, which is paying a hefty premium for tallow compared to exports. While the large majority of Brazilian tallow exports end up in the US, Australian suppliers have more flexibility and could send more volume to Singapore instead if tariffs deter US buyers. Export prices out of Australia peaked this year at $1,185/t on 4 March but have since trended lower to last close at $1,050/t on 1 April. In general, market participants say international tallow suppliers would have to drop offers to keep trade flows intact. Other policy shifts affect flows Even as US farm groups clamored for more muscular foreign feedstock limits over much of the last year, tallow had until now largely dodged any significant restrictions. Recent US guidance around 45Z treats all tallow, whether produced in the US or shipped long distances to reach the US, the same. Other foreign feedstocks were treated more harshly, with the same guidance providing no pathway at all for road fuels from foreign used cooking oil and also pinning the carbon intensity of canola oil — largely from Canada — as generally too high to claim any subsidy. But tariffs on major suppliers of tallow to the US, and the threat of additional charges if countries retaliate, could give refiners pause. Demand could rise for domestic animal fats or alternatively for domestic vegetable oils that can also be refined into fuel, especially if retaliatory tariffs cut off global markets for US farm products like soybean oil. There is also risk if Republicans in the Trump administration or Congress reshape rules around 45Z to penalize foreign feedstocks. At the same time, a minimum 10pc charge for tallow outside North America is a more manageable price to pay compared to other feedstocks — including a far-greater collection of charges on Chinese used cooking oil. And if the US sets biofuel blend mandates as high as some oil and farm groups are pushing , strong demand could leave producers with little choice but to continue importing at least some feedstock from abroad to continue making fuel. Not all US renewable diesel producers will be equally impacted by tariffs either. Some tariffs are eligible for drawbacks, meaning that producers could potentially recover tariffs they paid on feedstocks for fuel that is ultimately exported. And multiple biofuel producers are located in foreign-trade zones, a US program that works similarly to the duty drawbacks, and have applied for permission to avoid some tariffs on imported feedstocks for fuel eventually shipped abroad. Jurisdictions like the EU and UK, where sustainable aviation fuel mandates took effect this year, are attractive destinations. And there is still strong demand from the US food sector, with edible tallow prices in Chicago up 18pc so far this year. Trump allies, including his top health official, have pushed tallow as an alternative to seed oils. By Cole Martin and Jamuna Gautam Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Limited impact on US agriculture from China tariffs
Limited impact on US agriculture from China tariffs
London, 9 April (Argus) — China will add an additional 50pc tariff on US goods, raising the total to 84pc from 10 April, the country's finance ministry said today, but agricultural markets could be largely sheltered from the fallout, because China has already been showing limited demand for US grains and oilseeds since December . Tariffs will rise to 84pc for US goods arriving in China, matching US tariffs on imports from China. But purchases of US-origin agricultural products from private importers to China has already wound down since December, meaning that any rises in duties are unlikely to put any further pressure on China-bound shipments. Just 9,900t of US corn arrived in China between December 2024 and February 2025, the latest available customs data show, compared with 1.4mn t a year earlier. Soybean sales have been higher across the same period, with 13.4mn t arriving between December and February this year, compared with 8.8mn t a year ago. But most private buyers have refrained from making new US-origin purchases since December. By Megan Evans Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Tariffs and their impact larger than expected: Powell
Tariffs and their impact larger than expected: Powell
New York, 4 April (Argus) — Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell said today tariff increases unveiled by US president Donald Trump will be "significantly larger" than expected, as will the expected economic fallout. "The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth," Powell said today at the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing's annual conference in Arlington, Virginia. The central bank will continue to carefully monitor incoming data to assess the outlook and the balance of risks, he said. "We're well positioned to wait for greater clarity before considering any adjustments to our policy stance," Powell added. "It is too soon to say what will be the appropriate path for monetary policy." As of 1pm ET today, Fed funds futures markets are pricing in 29pc odds of a quarter point cut by the Federal Reserve at its next meeting in May and 99pc odds of at least a quarter point rate cut in June. Earlier in the day the June odds were at 100pc. The Fed chairman spoke after trillions of dollars in value were wiped off stock markets around the world and crude prices plummeted following Trump's rollout of across-the-board tariffs earlier in the week. Just before his appearance, Trump pressed Powell in a post on his social media platform to "STOP PLAYING POLITICS!" and cut interest rates without delay. A closely-watched government report showed the US added a greater-than-expected 228,000 jobs in March , showing hiring was picking up last month. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Ags prices caught up in tariff fallout
Ags prices caught up in tariff fallout
Paris, 3 April (Argus) — Grain and oilseed traders were buffeted by volatile futures markets and exchange rates on Wednesday. But the full impact of the tariffs imposed by the US — a major net exporter of wheat, corn and soy — is only likely to emerge once other governments' responses become clear. Wheat, corn and soybean futures were trading lower on the day when the Chicago Board of Trade opened on 3 April, the day after the US announced a swathe of import tariffs . But corn and wheat futures contracts began to recover hours later. Canada and Mexico, which made headlines in the initial wave of tariffs from Trump's administration, were on the sidelines on 2 April. Both are covered by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). This means Mexico could remain an important outlet for US corn and wheat — for now. US corn sellers have relied heavily on Mexico to shore up sales this marketing year. Of the 54mn t of current-crop US corn sold for export this marketing year (September-August) as of 27 March, 19mn t has been for Mexico, US Department of Agriculture (USDA) data show. USDA sees US corn exports hitting 62mn t this marketing year. Impact on Europe and Asia Euronext wheat, corn and rapeseed futures also began trading down on the day. But a sharp fall in the value of the dollar against the euro meant bids and offers for EU wheat discussed in the physical market in dollar terms held more or less steady early today. The Interactive Data Corp exchange rate closed at €0.90630 to the dollar at midday in London on 3 April — the lowest since October 2024. Ukrainian corn sellers are under particular pressure from a drop in the price of US commodities on certain markets, but could also stand to gain from a halt in deliveries of US corn to importers in Asia, before Brazil begins shipping its safrinha crop in July. Ukrainian corn typically competes with the US in Mediterranean markets, notably Spain, and in China. But Ukrainian corn has not been competitive against US corn recently — in the month since 3 March , when the US doubled tariffs on China from the 10pc introduced on 4 February, Ukrainian corn fob prices' premium to US corn fob Gulf has climbed, and in late March it hit its highest in Ukraine's current October-September marketing year, Argus -assessed prices show. But there is no guarantee that buyers will pay up, at least not immediately. Chinese buyers have already distanced themselves from US corn and soybeans this marketing year. Chinese buyers took little notice of Ukrainian corn sellers floating offers at above $270/t cif China on 2 April, immediately after the US announced an additional 34pc tariff on imports from China — bringing the actual rate to 54pc — and Beijing vowed retaliation . Chinese importers bid for Ukrainian corn in the $250s/t cif for July-August loading last week . Chinese buyers could be exposed to hikes in Brazilian soybean prices — something that might be more likely if EU buyers book more soybeans from Brazil at the expense of US cargoes. US soybean sales to China have already begun to slow. Chinese crushers have avoided US soybeans since December because of uncertainty over trade relations. Shipments to China dominated US vessel line-ups in late March, with exporters sending 641,000t to China on 21-27 March alone. Some 600,000t of corn was sold but not yet shipped as of 27 March, compared with 1.6mn t still to ship at the same point last month, weekly USDA data show. By Claudia Jackson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Trump tweaks tariff burden on US automakers
Trump tweaks tariff burden on US automakers
Washington, 29 April (Argus) — President Donald Trump's administration has offered to offset the 25pc tariff on foreign-made auto parts, scheduled to start on 3 May, and to exempt auto parts from any additional tariffs they face from other import taxes imposed in recent months. Trump, who today announced the change in tariffs ahead of a political rally in Michigan, a key US car manufacturing state, cast his decision in terms of giving US automakers a reprieve from his tariff policies. But as in other cases when he changed his mind on tariffs, the US auto industry will still face a substantial burden from import taxes imposed since Trump took office. Trump's 25pc tariffs on foreign cars went into effect on 3 April, and a 25pc tariff on imported auto parts was scheduled to go into effect on 3 May. Under an executive order Trump signed today, the auto makers can be partially refunded the cost of the tariffs on imported auto parts, subject to a cap of 15pc of the value of an assembled car until April 2026, dropping to a 10pc cap until April 2027. The refund cannot exceed 3.75pc of a car's manufacturer suggested retail price in the first year, dropping to 2.5pc in the second year. The idea behind the adjustment is to force US automakers to become wholly reliant on auto parts made in the US in the next two years, commerce secretary Howard Lutnick explained. In theory, at least, a US-made car that is made with 85pc domestic components would not face an additional tariff cost. A separate executive order clarifies that the tariffs on foreign-made cars and auto parts will not be calculated in addition to any other tariffs Trump has imposed on Canada and Mexico, and will not be counted on top of tariffs imposed on steel, aluminum and their derivative products. "This is just a little transition," Trump told reporters at the White House today, announcing the latest reversal of his tariff policy. "We're just giving them a little chance, because in some cases, they can't get the parts fast enough." By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Carney’s Liberals to form next Canadian government
Carney’s Liberals to form next Canadian government
Calgary, 28 April (Argus) — Canadian prime minister Mark Carney and his Liberal party are projected to win the country's 45th general election, but securing a majority of seats in Parliament is unclear with many tight races still to be determined. The Liberal party is on track to take 156 of the 343 seats up for grabs, according to preliminary results from Elections Canada at about 11pm ET. The Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, will form the official opposition with an estimated 144 seats so far. The Liberals seat count is comparable to the 160 won in the 2021 election while the Conservatives are up from 119. If the Liberals win a minority they would need the support of other parties to pass legislation, as they did prior to the election. The win completes the comeback for the Liberal party which just a few months ago languished in polls as dissatisfaction of then-prime minister Justin Trudeau rose. Carney and his experience navigating economic crises resonated with voters as they found themselves in a trade war initiated by US president Donald Trump. The US has imposed a 25pc tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum since 13 March and Canadian automobiles since 9 April. Canada has retaliated to each wave with tariffs of their own. Canadian oil and gas has been exempt from US tariffs but Trump's trade action has led many politicians and Canadians at large to re-examine the need to diversify its energy exports. Trade corridors, pipelines and LNG facilities were promoted by both Carney and Poilievre. Carney and Trump agreed in late-March that broader, comprehensive economic negotiations would happen after the election. The Liberals have held power since 2015, but only in a minority capacity since the 2019 election. Inflation, housing, Trump top concerns The key issues for Canadians this election cycle were inflation, housing, cost of living and international relations — particularly the aggressive moves from the US, according to polls. Diversifying trade and growing energy production have been promoted by both Conservative and Liberal leaders — and prime minister hopefuls — looking to become less dependent on US customers and kickstart a lagging economy. Canada is the world's fourth-largest oil producer with over 5.7mn b/d of output, and the fifth-largest natural gas producer at 18 Bcf/d, according to the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP). The US is Canada's largest foreign customer of each, but verbal and economic attacks on Canada by Trump have prompted politicians and Canadians at large to reexamine their trade strategies. Poilievre says Liberal policies over the past decade have stifled the country's productivity and allowed it to become the weakest performer in the G7. Liberal policy needs to be undone so Canada can "unleash" its oil and gas sector to better protect its sovereignty , says Poilievre. Carney's campaign had centered heavily on Trump, emphasizing the threat comes from abroad, not within. Carney wants to make Canada an "energy superpower" but maintains current legislation is the way to do it, despite calls to the contrary by oil and gas executives . By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Freeport expects tariffs to increase costs 5pc
Freeport expects tariffs to increase costs 5pc
Houston, 24 April (Argus) — US-based copper producer Freeport-McMoRan expects tariffs to increase the costs of goods needed for operations by 5pc, as suppliers will likely pass on tariff-related costs. The 145pc tariffs imposed by the US on China on 10 April will likely have the largest influence on the estimated 5pc increase, according to Freeport-McMoRan chief executive officer Kathleen Quirk. Approximately 40pc of the company's US costs will not be subject to tariffs, as they relate to labor and services. Copper is currently exempt from tariffs after President Donald Trump signed an executive order on 25 February launching a Section 232 investigation into the effect of copper imports on US national and economic security. Freeport said that its first quarter copper sales volumes of 872mn lbs exceeded its earlier estimate of 850mn lbs. But copper sales revenue decreased to $872mn this quarter from $1.1bn the first quarter of 2024. Copper production and sales were pressured in the quarter by shut operations at its Manyar smelter in Indonesia following a fire in October . The company expects start-up activities to begin at the smelter in the second quarter and return to full operations by the end of 2025. The company's molybdenum first quarter sales remained the same as 2024 first quarter's at $20mn. Freeport's net income for the first quarter was $352mn, a decrease from $473mn in the first quarter of 2024. By Reagan Patrowicz Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Alcoa expects to incur $90mn 2Q hit from tariffs
Alcoa expects to incur $90mn 2Q hit from tariffs
Houston, 21 April (Argus) — US-based integrated aluminum producer Alcoa anticipates $90mn in tariff-related costs associated with importing primary aluminum from Canada during the second quarter. For the full year, the Pennsylvania-based company foresees that figure rising to between $400mn-425mn, as 70pc of its production from Canada "is destined for US customers," Alcoa chief executive William Oplinger said in a first-quarter earnings call late Wednesday. A higher Midwest premium should help offset most of those cost pressures in support of Alcoa's domestic smelters, but Oplinger warned that the company still faces a $100mn negative impact on its business in 2025 because of the higher Section 232 duties that US president Donald Trump implemented on 12 March. The company noted that the US lacks the infrastructure to cover domestic aluminum consumption, even if all other idled smelting capacity here would restart. "Until additional smelting capacity is built in the US, the most efficient aluminum supply chain is Canadian aluminum going into the US," Oplinger said. By his estimate, at least five domestic smelters would need to be added, but construction would take "many years" and investment would be partially dependent on access to new — and cheap — energy sources. "These new smelters would require additional energy production equivalent to almost seven new nuclear reactors or more than 10 Hoover dams," Oplinger said. Still, Alcoa maintained its full-year production and sales volume guidance for aluminum products, ranging between 2.3mn-2.5mn metric tonnes (t) and 2.6mn-2.8mn t, respectively. It also kept its outlook for alumina output and shipments unchanged at 9.5mn-9.7mn t and 13.1mn-13.3mn t, respectively. First-quarter aluminum production increased by 4pc to 564,000t from the prior-year period, while total sales volumes fell by 3.9pc in the same timeframe, reflecting timing of shipments and the end of its offtake agreement with Saudi Arabia Mining (Ma'aden) as part of its planned divestment from the entities' aluminum joint venture. Alumina output in January-March dropped by 12pc to 2.4mn t on the year, while shipments fell by 12pc as well, to 2.1mn t. Alcoa attributed the drop in sales volumes to timing of shipments and reduced trading. Quarterly bauxite production fell by 5.9pc to 9.5mn dry metric tonnes (dmt) from the prior-year period, while sales volumes increased by 67pc to 3mn dmt. The company was able to capitalize on supply tightness in the bauxite market that has helped elevate prices to $80-85/dmt, selling cargoes in the spot market. Alcoa posted a $548mn profit in the first quarter compared to a loss of $252mn in the prior-year period. Revenues increased by 30pc to nearly $3.4bn in the same timeframe. By Alex Nicoll Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
