Latest news on trade tariffs
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US soy volatile on possible China buying
US soy volatile on possible China buying
St Louis, 6 February (Argus) — US soybean futures contracts briefly spiked early today as the market adjusted to signs that China may again be resuming US soybean purchasing. The May delivered Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean contract gained $0.174/bushel (bu) within an hour of opening this morning, before shedding those gains and then some, closing the day down by $0.042/bu at $11.28/bu. The May CBOT contract still closed the day slightly above Thursday's closing value, marking the fourth consecutive day of gains this week. Basis gains for new crop soybeans loaded in the Pacific Northwest were also reported today, further support for what market sources tell Argus is Chinese buyers re-engaging with the US. Buyers may have contracted overnight for as many as seven cargoes for April-May loading in the US Gulf, according to sources. Friday's trades follow an unanticipated boost to futures prices on 4 February from a social media post from US president Donald Trump declaring China would increase its US soybean purchases by 8mn t. If China has returned to US soybean markets, it raises questions regarding the outlook for US-Chinese soybean trade going forward. Currently, China has an agreement to purchase 12mn t of US soybeans by the end of this month, and another 25mn t per-year for the next three years. As of 29 January, total US soybean sales to China reached 9.89mn t for this marketing year, with 100,000t sold during that week alone, according to US Department of Agriculture data. This seems to be at odds with US treasury secretary Scott Bessent's claim on 20 January that China had completed its purchases of the first 12mn t. If China did purchase more US soybeans this morning, in line with Trump's claim the country would buy another 8mn t, it is unclear how these sales would tally towards the current agreement. If they are considered an extension of the current 12mn t agreement, then that might mean China will move to secure these volumes before the end of February. If not, they might be added to the 25mn t obligation for 2026. That would put US soybean sales to China at 33mn t for 2026, which would be the most since the 2020-21 marketing year. Either way, Trump's claim and the potential re-engaging of China in US soybean markets is likely to detach the markets understanding of the US-China soybean trade agreement from its stated terms. That could mean more volatility and uncertainty for commodity prices moving forward. By Ryan Koory Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Crude Summit: Court tariff overturn likely: Lighthizer
Crude Summit: Court tariff overturn likely: Lighthizer
Houston, 4 February (Argus) — At least parts of President Donald Trump's sweeping tariff regime will likely be overturned by the US Supreme Court, according to former US trade representative Robert Lighthizer, but the administration will find other ways to keep their intent intact. "My guess is that there'll be, to some extent, an overruling of what he did," Lighthizer said today at the Argus Americas Crude Summit in Houston, Texas. Lighthizer, considered an architect of the current White House tariff policy, said they would not go away even with an unfavorable court ruling, which is expected in the coming weeks. "It's clearly easier and better if you can do it under IEEPA," Lighthizer said, referring to the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, the 1977 law that Trump has used to impose reciprocal tariffs on dozens of global trading partners. "But if he can't, I think he'll have the same policy," just using other tools to impose similar tariffs. "He has those tools. It's a little more complicated process." Lighthizer, who helped orchestrate the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) in 2020 that spells out trade between the three countries, said further changes were needed as a renewal of the deal approaches later this year. "There will be some tweaks in Canada," he said, particularly with regard to agriculture. "There'll be some more substantial change with respect to Mexico, and particularly taking on this issue of China's influence in Mexico." Direct energy imports have largely been spared from most of the Trump tariffs, but oil companies complain tariffs have increased drilling costs by making steel imports more costly. The uncertainly of the on-again/off-again tariff have also increased economic uncertainty and made planning difficult for energy firms. But Lighthizer said Trump has a "very favorable attitude" toward the energy sector in general. While tariffs may have increased the cost of steel "the payoff will be pretty big" he said, when the wider economy takes off as a result of a rebalance of long-standing trade deficits. Lighthizer dismissed arguments that tariffs cause inflation, and said the policy has been a great success. "You can say they could have done it in a less chaotic way," Lighthizer said. "Maybe that's true, maybe it's not true." By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Trump's oil supplier tariffs 'blackmail': Cuba
Trump's oil supplier tariffs 'blackmail': Cuba
Kingston, 30 January (Argus) — Cuba has rejected US president Donald Trump's plan to impose tariffs on any country supplying oil to the island, describing the move as "blackmail". "The US is resorting to blackmail and coercion, trying to force other countries to join its widely condemned Cuba blockade policy, threatening those who refuse with arbitrary and unfair tariffs," foreign minister Bruno Rodriguez said. The US move will worsen persistent shortages of all forms of fuel caused by reduced imports and stagnant domestic crude production, a diplomat in Havana told Argus . Many parts of Cuba have been facing 15-hour blackouts, with some areas going without electricity for days, the diplomat said, adding that tariffs can increase those blackouts and increase lines at retail fuel stations. Cuba's power generators are delivering about a half of their nominal 2,420MW capacity to meet average demand of about 3,300MW, according to data from state power company UNE. Trump's executive order imposing tariffs on any country that supplies oil to Cuba describes the island's government as an "unusual and extraordinary threat" to US national security. Cuba needs about 140,000 b/d of crude and fuels and has been depending on imports of 100,000 b/d of all types of fuel, with the rest from domestic production of the heavy, sour crude processed by its pressured refineries, according to government data. Rodriguez called the executive order a "brutal act of aggression against Cuba and its people". Venezuela shipped 15,000 b/d of crude to Cuba in 2025, according to Kpler ship tracking data. But these supplies have been disrupted since mid-December by the US stopping sanctioned oil tankers traveling in and out of Venezuela. Mexico has also been supplying crude and a range of oil products to Cuba under a longstanding agreement, and sent about 19,600 b/d to the island in the first half of 2025, based on the most recent available data. Imports from Russia, once Cuba's main economic supporter, have also slipped significantly. The US threat "will likely deter even Cuba's strongest supporters and suppliers of fuel," the diplomat said. "There is already some indication of Mexican uncertainty about future shipments." By Canute James Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Trump threatens higher tariffs on South Korea
Trump threatens higher tariffs on South Korea
Washington, 26 January (Argus) — President Donald Trump on Monday threatened to raise the tariff rate on imports from South Korea to 25pc from 15pc, citing the country's lack of progress on ratifying a trade deal with the US. "Because the Korean Legislature hasn't enacted our Historic Trade Agreement, which is their prerogative, I am hereby increasing South Korean TARIFFS on Autos, Lumber, Pharma, and all other Reciprocal TARIFFS, from 15pc to 25pc," Trump posted on his social media platform. South Korea was among the top US trading partners that committed to a trade agreement with the US to lower tariffs. Seoul promised $20bn/yr of cash investment in US manufacturing capacity, as well as purchases of 3.3mn t/yr of US LNG. The two countries also agreed to cooperate on shipbuilding. Trump as a result capped tariffs on imports from South Korea at 15pc. The White House has not released any executive order backing Trump's South Korea tariff threat, nor did it immediately provide other details. Trump's ability to quickly levy tariffs on South Korea and other trading partners is under review at the US Supreme Court, which is expected to issue a ruling soon. Trump's administration has not issued major tariff decisions in recent months, despite Trump's threats to do so. Trump earlier this month threatened to impose a 25pc tariff on US imports from countries doing business with Iran, but no decision has been made. Trump on 17 January threatened to impose a 10pc tariff on imports from the UK and seven EU members, which pushed back against his bid to annex Denmark's Greenland territory. Trump on 21 January withdrew that tariff threat after a slide in US stock and financial markets. Trump on 24 January threatened to impose a 100pc tariff on all goods imported from Canada if it signed a trade deal with China. Canada is a major source of the US' lumber imports, but South Korea is not. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Crude Summit: Court tariff overturn likely: Lighthizer
Crude Summit: Court tariff overturn likely: Lighthizer
Houston, 4 February (Argus) — At least parts of President Donald Trump's sweeping tariff regime will likely be overturned by the US Supreme Court, according to former US trade representative Robert Lighthizer, but the administration will find other ways to keep their intent intact. "My guess is that there'll be, to some extent, an overruling of what he did," Lighthizer said today at the Argus Americas Crude Summit in Houston, Texas. Lighthizer, considered an architect of the current White House tariff policy, said they would not go away even with an unfavorable court ruling, which is expected in the coming weeks. "It's clearly easier and better if you can do it under IEEPA," Lighthizer said, referring to the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, the 1977 law that Trump has used to impose reciprocal tariffs on dozens of global trading partners. "But if he can't, I think he'll have the same policy," just using other tools to impose similar tariffs. "He has those tools. It's a little more complicated process." Lighthizer, who helped orchestrate the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) in 2020 that spells out trade between the three countries, said further changes were needed as a renewal of the deal approaches later this year. "There will be some tweaks in Canada," he said, particularly with regard to agriculture. "There'll be some more substantial change with respect to Mexico, and particularly taking on this issue of China's influence in Mexico." Direct energy imports have largely been spared from most of the Trump tariffs, but oil companies complain tariffs have increased drilling costs by making steel imports more costly. The uncertainly of the on-again/off-again tariff have also increased economic uncertainty and made planning difficult for energy firms. But Lighthizer said Trump has a "very favorable attitude" toward the energy sector in general. While tariffs may have increased the cost of steel "the payoff will be pretty big" he said, when the wider economy takes off as a result of a rebalance of long-standing trade deficits. Lighthizer dismissed arguments that tariffs cause inflation, and said the policy has been a great success. "You can say they could have done it in a less chaotic way," Lighthizer said. "Maybe that's true, maybe it's not true." By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Trump's oil supplier tariffs 'blackmail': Cuba
Trump's oil supplier tariffs 'blackmail': Cuba
Kingston, 30 January (Argus) — Cuba has rejected US president Donald Trump's plan to impose tariffs on any country supplying oil to the island, describing the move as "blackmail". "The US is resorting to blackmail and coercion, trying to force other countries to join its widely condemned Cuba blockade policy, threatening those who refuse with arbitrary and unfair tariffs," foreign minister Bruno Rodriguez said. The US move will worsen persistent shortages of all forms of fuel caused by reduced imports and stagnant domestic crude production, a diplomat in Havana told Argus . Many parts of Cuba have been facing 15-hour blackouts, with some areas going without electricity for days, the diplomat said, adding that tariffs can increase those blackouts and increase lines at retail fuel stations. Cuba's power generators are delivering about a half of their nominal 2,420MW capacity to meet average demand of about 3,300MW, according to data from state power company UNE. Trump's executive order imposing tariffs on any country that supplies oil to Cuba describes the island's government as an "unusual and extraordinary threat" to US national security. Cuba needs about 140,000 b/d of crude and fuels and has been depending on imports of 100,000 b/d of all types of fuel, with the rest from domestic production of the heavy, sour crude processed by its pressured refineries, according to government data. Rodriguez called the executive order a "brutal act of aggression against Cuba and its people". Venezuela shipped 15,000 b/d of crude to Cuba in 2025, according to Kpler ship tracking data. But these supplies have been disrupted since mid-December by the US stopping sanctioned oil tankers traveling in and out of Venezuela. Mexico has also been supplying crude and a range of oil products to Cuba under a longstanding agreement, and sent about 19,600 b/d to the island in the first half of 2025, based on the most recent available data. Imports from Russia, once Cuba's main economic supporter, have also slipped significantly. The US threat "will likely deter even Cuba's strongest supporters and suppliers of fuel," the diplomat said. "There is already some indication of Mexican uncertainty about future shipments." By Canute James Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Trump threatens higher tariffs on South Korea
Trump threatens higher tariffs on South Korea
Washington, 26 January (Argus) — President Donald Trump on Monday threatened to raise the tariff rate on imports from South Korea to 25pc from 15pc, citing the country's lack of progress on ratifying a trade deal with the US. "Because the Korean Legislature hasn't enacted our Historic Trade Agreement, which is their prerogative, I am hereby increasing South Korean TARIFFS on Autos, Lumber, Pharma, and all other Reciprocal TARIFFS, from 15pc to 25pc," Trump posted on his social media platform. South Korea was among the top US trading partners that committed to a trade agreement with the US to lower tariffs. Seoul promised $20bn/yr of cash investment in US manufacturing capacity, as well as purchases of 3.3mn t/yr of US LNG. The two countries also agreed to cooperate on shipbuilding. Trump as a result capped tariffs on imports from South Korea at 15pc. The White House has not released any executive order backing Trump's South Korea tariff threat, nor did it immediately provide other details. Trump's ability to quickly levy tariffs on South Korea and other trading partners is under review at the US Supreme Court, which is expected to issue a ruling soon. Trump's administration has not issued major tariff decisions in recent months, despite Trump's threats to do so. Trump earlier this month threatened to impose a 25pc tariff on US imports from countries doing business with Iran, but no decision has been made. Trump on 17 January threatened to impose a 10pc tariff on imports from the UK and seven EU members, which pushed back against his bid to annex Denmark's Greenland territory. Trump on 21 January withdrew that tariff threat after a slide in US stock and financial markets. Trump on 24 January threatened to impose a 100pc tariff on all goods imported from Canada if it signed a trade deal with China. Canada is a major source of the US' lumber imports, but South Korea is not. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Compliance with US demands won’t buy safety: Carney
Compliance with US demands won’t buy safety: Carney
Calgary, 21 January (Argus) — In a speech widely seen as a rebuke of President Donald Trump's aggressive global trade and military policy, Canadian prime minister Mark Carney called on other smaller countries to cooperate with one another rather than give in to coercion. "Great powers have begun using economic integration as weapons, tariffs as leverage, financial infrastructure as coercion, supply chains as vulnerabilities to be exploited," Carney told world leaders gathered at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland, on Tuesday. Individual countries like Canada and European nations — which Carney referred to as "middle powers" — lack the economic heft to defy these larger powers. "The middle powers must act together, because if we're not at the table, we're on the menu," he said. Carney did not mention Trump or the US by name in his speech, but the meaning was clear in the European setting amid Trump's repeated threats of annexing Denmark's Greenland territory. "We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition," said Carney, repeating language he has often used domestically. Canada was among the first countries to be targeted by US tariffs last year and a pattern of on-again, off-again trade talks have persisted between the two long-time trading partners. Carney has vowed to double Canada's non-US exports to pivot away from its neighbor, which includes striking a deal in China last week and calling that country "more predictable". Now with most countries threatened by US tariffs, and some threatened by annexation, including Canada, Carney is calling on others to resist the temptation to capitulate and instead draw a line in the sand. "There is a strong tendency for countries to go along to get along, to accommodate, to avoid trouble, to hope that compliance will buy safety. Well, it won't," said Carney. Trump shot back at Carney during his own Davos address on Wednesday. "I watched your prime minister yesterday, he wasn't so grateful," Trump said. "But they should be grateful to us, Canada. Canada lives because of the United States. Remember that, Mark, the next time you make your statements." Trump on Wednesday walked back plans to impose a 10pc tariff on imports from the UK and seven EU members over their position on US ownership of Greenland, citing a "framework" of a future deal being achieved. Carney has hit back at the US with counter tariffs of its own, but has also relented at times. Canada in June 2025 rescinded a digital sales tax that would have collected revenue from the US' largest tech companies, after US secretary of commerce Howard Lutnick said the tax could have been a deal breaker in trade negotiations. That show of good faith — which did not appear to be reciprocated — was criticized within Canada as being contrary to Carney's repeated "elbows up" mantra in the face of Trump's threats. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Trump withdraws EU, UK tariff threat
Trump withdraws EU, UK tariff threat
Washington, 21 January (Argus) — President Donald Trump said Wednesday he will not proceed with plans to impose a 10pc tariff on imports from the UK and seven EU members over their position on US ownership of Greenland, averting a possible tariff war with Europe. Trump, writing via his social media platform, explained his decision by having reached the "framework of a future deal with respect to Greenland and, in fact, the entire Arctic Region." Trump is in Davos, Switzerland, where he met with Nato secretary general Mark Rutte and delivered a rambling speech to explain his motivation for trying to annex Denmark's Greenland territory. Trump and the White House did not provide details of a possible deal. Trump on 17 January threatened to impose an additional 10pc tariff on US imports from the UK, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, The Netherlands, Norway and Sweden. Those countries pushed back on his Greenland plans and sent a military mission to the Arctic island to examine its security needs. Trump also said he tasked vice president JD Vance, secretary of state Marco Rubio and special presidential envoy Steve Witkoff with negotiating the placement of the so-called Golden Dome missile defense network in Greenland. Trump's threats to annex Greenland and to impose tariffs on European countries that pushed back against his plans sent US stock and financial markets lower on Tuesday, out of concern that a tariff war may erupt between the US and the EU. The European parliament was preparing to freeze work on implementing laws for the EU-US trade deal agreed to last summer. Stock and financial markets bounced back after Trump earlier Wednesday appeared to have ruled out the use of military force to take over Greenland, with further gains after he said he would not proceed with tariffs. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Trump threatens 10pc tariff against UK, EU members
Trump threatens 10pc tariff against UK, EU members
Houston, 17 January (Argus) — President Donald Trump on Saturday threatened to impose a 10pc tariff on US imports from the UK and seven key members of the EU, citing their participation in a military mission in Denmark's Greenland territory, which he is threatening to annex. US imports from the UK, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, The Netherlands, Norway and Sweden would be subject to a 10pc tariff from 1 February, rising to a 25pc tariff from 1 June, Trump announced via his social media platform. The tariff would remain in place until "such time as a Deal is reached for the Complete and Total purchase of Greenland", Trump said. Trump has stepped up discussion of taking over Greenland — a self-governing island under Denmark's control — following a US special forces raid that captured Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro on 3 January. Denmark and Greenland have rejected US overtures to buy the island, as well as Trump's threat to take over the island by force. Trump is citing Greenland's alleged lack of military protection as the latest justification for his threats. He has denigrated Denmark's commitment to the island's defense against alleged threats from Russia and China. "They currently have two dogsleds as protection, one added recently," Trump said on Saturday. Denmark's foreign minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen, who traveled to Washington on 14 January to meet Trump administration officials, pushed back against that accusation. "Denmark has already stepped up our own contribution by committing additional funds for military capabilities — not [dogsleds], but ships, drones, fighter jets," Rasmussen said. The countries threatened with new tariffs by Trump joined Denmark to dispatch troops and military experts to Greenland on a mission to assess the island's security needs. Trump on Saturday said that the reconnaissance mission "journeyed to Greenland, for purposes unknown." EU leaders expressed solidarity with Denmark and called for dialogue, but they omitted mention of possible retaliation if Trump makes good on his threat to impose new tariffs. "Tariffs would undermine transatlantic relations and risk a dangerous downward spiral," European Council president Antonio Costa and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said in response to Trump's post. "Europe will remain united, coordinated, and committed to upholding its sovereignty." "Applying tariffs on allies for pursuing the collective security of Nato allies is completely wrong," UK prime minister Keir Starmer said on Saturday. "We will of course be pursuing this directly with the US administration." US imports from the UK already are subject to a 10pc import tariff, and imports from the EU face a 15pc tariff. While Trump is threatening tariffs against seven out of 27 EU members, the bloc collectively negotiates trade matters and sets tariffs. Trump is scheduled to attend the Davos Economic Forum in Switzerland on 21-22 January. A bipartisan delegation of 11 US senators and members of the House of Representatives traveled to Copenhagen on 16 January to express support for Denmark's government and push back against Trump's designs on Greenland. "There is no need, or desire, for a costly acquisition or hostile military takeover of Greenland when our Danish and Greenlandic allies are eager to work with us on Arctic security, critical minerals and other priorities under the framework of long-standing treaties," said US senators Jeanne Shaheen (D-New Hampshire) and Thom Tills (R-North Carolina), who were part of the congressional delegation. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Mexico says trade pact will hold despite Trump doubts
Mexico says trade pact will hold despite Trump doubts
Mexico City, 16 January (Argus) — Mexico remains confident that the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) will be extended, even as US president Donald Trump questions the value of the pact that functions as a foundation for much of North America's trade. The three countries are working on the treaty's scheduled review this year and aim to meet the 1 July deadline to conclude the process, Mexico's economy minister Marcelo Ebrard said Thursday during president Claudia Sheinbaum's daily press conference. Negotiators have made steady progress on issues raised by each side, he said Ebrard's remarks come after Trump again put the USMCA's future in question earlier this week. During a visit to a Ford plant in Michigan, Trump dismissed the treaty as offering "no real advantage". The agreement, which replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 2020, is a key driver of Mexico's economy, supporting trade and manufacturing supply chains tied to the US and Canada. This year's review cycle foresees a 16-year extension to the treaty if all three countries agree. Without an extension, the USMCA would shift to annual reviews, which analysts see leading to further uncertainty about trade and investment planning. Tariffs on some Mexican exports would probably remain in place even if the agreement is renewed, analysts have said. Bilateral relations have grown tense in the past year following Trump's repeated threats to pursue military action against criminal groups in Mexico. The US has also pressed Mexico to deliver faster progress on illegal drug traffic enforcement. Mexico's foreign minister Juan Ramon de la Fuente and US secretary of state Marco Rubio spoke by telephone on Thursday and reaffirmed the "importance of the US-Mexico partnership", both governments said in a joint statement. Following the call, the US State Department posted on X that "incremental progress" on border security is "unacceptable", and that upcoming engagements will require measurable results to dismantle trafficking networks and disrupt alleged fentanyl flows from Mexico into the US. Sheinbaum said earlier this week that she had ruled out any US military intervention following a "good conversation" with Trump on security issues. By Cas Biekmann Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Mexican auto industry aims high in tough USMCA talks
Mexican auto industry aims high in tough USMCA talks
Mexico City, 15 January (Argus) — Mexico's auto industry wants a return to zero tariffs on vehicle exports to the US and Canada under a pending update of the free trade agreement (USMCA) between the three countries, but there are concerns about the speed of the talks. If negotiations succeed, USMCA would be renewed for another 17 years on 1 July 2026 — six years after its launch — a step that industry sources say is critical to restoring investor confidence and unlocking the full potential of nearshoring in Mexico. Mexico was the largest foreign source of vehicles for the US in 2025, supplying 17pc, or 2.7mn units, of the 16.2mn light vehicles sold in the US, according to automaker association AMIA. Mexico was also the top supplier of auto parts to the US in 2025 and the world's third-largest exporter of light vehicles by value. Industry representatives say that success now hinges on continuity in the treaty, which remains uncertain as disputes between Mexico, the US and Canada persist. Those concerns were outlined by Mexico's main auto groups at an event in Mexico City this week. Negotiations are unfolding under a tense US trade backdrop. In March 2025, US president Donald Trump imposed 25pc blanket tariffs on USMCA partners under a national security provision, measures that Mexican automakers are still seeking to unwind. "There is nothing more important right now than the treaty review and dealing with these tariffs still hanging over us," said Guillermo Rosales, head of auto dealers' association AMDA. "The goal must be to return to zero." A key point of contention is the treaty's regional value content rules, where light vehicles must contain at least 70pc North American content. That is a threshold more than 90pc of Mexican auto exports to the US already meet, but industry groups are pushing for flexibility for firms still on a compliance pathway. Heavy vehicle makers are still working to reach compliance. "We are at 64pc regional content and aiming for 70pc by 2027," said Mexico's association of truck and bus manufacturers Anpact head Rogelio Arzarte, noting that sourcing components not currently produced in North America remains complex. Mexico's industry is also seeking changes to the USMCA's rapid response labor mechanism, arguing it has been applied disproportionately against Mexican facilities. While talks began early, the process is already slipping. The US trade representative has yet to submit a required report to Congress, raising fears the review could drift toward US midterm elections, prolonging uncertainty and delaying investment. "I want to be positive," said AMIA head Rogelio Garza. "But it's not going to be easy for some industries, among which I believe we are included." By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Trump threatens higher tariffs on South Korea
Trump threatens higher tariffs on South Korea
Washington, 26 January (Argus) — President Donald Trump on Monday threatened to raise the tariff rate on imports from South Korea to 25pc from 15pc, citing the country's lack of progress on ratifying a trade deal with the US. "Because the Korean Legislature hasn't enacted our Historic Trade Agreement, which is their prerogative, I am hereby increasing South Korean TARIFFS on Autos, Lumber, Pharma, and all other Reciprocal TARIFFS, from 15pc to 25pc," Trump posted on his social media platform. South Korea was among the top US trading partners that committed to a trade agreement with the US to lower tariffs. Seoul promised $20bn/yr of cash investment in US manufacturing capacity, as well as purchases of 3.3mn t/yr of US LNG. The two countries also agreed to cooperate on shipbuilding. Trump as a result capped tariffs on imports from South Korea at 15pc. The White House has not released any executive order backing Trump's South Korea tariff threat, nor did it immediately provide other details. Trump's ability to quickly levy tariffs on South Korea and other trading partners is under review at the US Supreme Court, which is expected to issue a ruling soon. Trump's administration has not issued major tariff decisions in recent months, despite Trump's threats to do so. Trump earlier this month threatened to impose a 25pc tariff on US imports from countries doing business with Iran, but no decision has been made. Trump on 17 January threatened to impose a 10pc tariff on imports from the UK and seven EU members, which pushed back against his bid to annex Denmark's Greenland territory. Trump on 21 January withdrew that tariff threat after a slide in US stock and financial markets. Trump on 24 January threatened to impose a 100pc tariff on all goods imported from Canada if it signed a trade deal with China. Canada is a major source of the US' lumber imports, but South Korea is not. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Trump withdraws EU, UK tariff threat
Trump withdraws EU, UK tariff threat
Washington, 21 January (Argus) — President Donald Trump said Wednesday he will not proceed with plans to impose a 10pc tariff on imports from the UK and seven EU members over their position on US ownership of Greenland, averting a possible tariff war with Europe. Trump, writing via his social media platform, explained his decision by having reached the "framework of a future deal with respect to Greenland and, in fact, the entire Arctic Region." Trump is in Davos, Switzerland, where he met with Nato secretary general Mark Rutte and delivered a rambling speech to explain his motivation for trying to annex Denmark's Greenland territory. Trump and the White House did not provide details of a possible deal. Trump on 17 January threatened to impose an additional 10pc tariff on US imports from the UK, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, The Netherlands, Norway and Sweden. Those countries pushed back on his Greenland plans and sent a military mission to the Arctic island to examine its security needs. Trump also said he tasked vice president JD Vance, secretary of state Marco Rubio and special presidential envoy Steve Witkoff with negotiating the placement of the so-called Golden Dome missile defense network in Greenland. Trump's threats to annex Greenland and to impose tariffs on European countries that pushed back against his plans sent US stock and financial markets lower on Tuesday, out of concern that a tariff war may erupt between the US and the EU. The European parliament was preparing to freeze work on implementing laws for the EU-US trade deal agreed to last summer. Stock and financial markets bounced back after Trump earlier Wednesday appeared to have ruled out the use of military force to take over Greenland, with further gains after he said he would not proceed with tariffs. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US aims to contain Greenland fallout on market
US aims to contain Greenland fallout on market
Washington, 20 January (Argus) — President Donald Trump's administration is rushing to stave off a potential trade war with Europe and its negative effects on financial markets, as the UK and EU have pushed back on his bid to annex Denmark's Greenland territory. Trump has threatened to impose a 10pc tariff on US imports from the UK and seven members of the EU from 1 February, unless they agree to his demand for the US takeover of Greenland. The UK appears to rule out retaliatory measures, but EU leaders will meet on 22 January to agree on the bloc's response. The European parliament is preparing to freeze work on implementing laws for the EU-US trade deal agreed to last summer. US stock and financial markets fell in Tuesday morning sessions. But US treasury secretary Scott Bessent, speaking at the Davos Economic Forum in Switzerland, urged his EU counterparts to desist from retaliatory measures. He blamed the downward trend in US financial markets on the contagion effect from a sharp fall in Japan's government bond markets on Monday. "I tell everyone, 'sit back, take a deep breath, do not retaliate'", Bessent said at the forum. "The president will be here tomorrow, and he will get his message across." Trump is scheduled to arrive in Davos on Wednesday to address the forum and hold meetings with EU leaders. California governor Gavin Newsom (D), who is also at Davos, on Tuesday urged the European leaders to take a tougher stand against Trump. Newsom said his message to the EU leaders is to "get off your knees and grow a spine," adding that "there's no diplomacy with Donald Trump." The White House has not released any details on how Trump's tariff threat against select EU members will be carried out and whether energy commodities will continue to be exempted from tariffs. So far there are no executive orders from Trump on implementing tariffs starting 1 February. Bessent also defended Trump's designs on Greenland, reiterating the president's argument that the US needs to take over the island's security to prevent Russia and China from attacking it. Bessent asserted that "this has been in the minds of American presidents for more than 150 years". The French foreign ministry on Monday said that the US explanation for needing to annex Greenland is the equivalent of arguing that "if there were a fire someday, firefighters would intervene — so better burn the house now." By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Trump threatens 10pc tariff against UK, EU members
Trump threatens 10pc tariff against UK, EU members
Houston, 17 January (Argus) — President Donald Trump on Saturday threatened to impose a 10pc tariff on US imports from the UK and seven key members of the EU, citing their participation in a military mission in Denmark's Greenland territory, which he is threatening to annex. US imports from the UK, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, The Netherlands, Norway and Sweden would be subject to a 10pc tariff from 1 February, rising to a 25pc tariff from 1 June, Trump announced via his social media platform. The tariff would remain in place until "such time as a Deal is reached for the Complete and Total purchase of Greenland", Trump said. Trump has stepped up discussion of taking over Greenland — a self-governing island under Denmark's control — following a US special forces raid that captured Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro on 3 January. Denmark and Greenland have rejected US overtures to buy the island, as well as Trump's threat to take over the island by force. Trump is citing Greenland's alleged lack of military protection as the latest justification for his threats. He has denigrated Denmark's commitment to the island's defense against alleged threats from Russia and China. "They currently have two dogsleds as protection, one added recently," Trump said on Saturday. Denmark's foreign minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen, who traveled to Washington on 14 January to meet Trump administration officials, pushed back against that accusation. "Denmark has already stepped up our own contribution by committing additional funds for military capabilities — not [dogsleds], but ships, drones, fighter jets," Rasmussen said. The countries threatened with new tariffs by Trump joined Denmark to dispatch troops and military experts to Greenland on a mission to assess the island's security needs. Trump on Saturday said that the reconnaissance mission "journeyed to Greenland, for purposes unknown." EU leaders expressed solidarity with Denmark and called for dialogue, but they omitted mention of possible retaliation if Trump makes good on his threat to impose new tariffs. "Tariffs would undermine transatlantic relations and risk a dangerous downward spiral," European Council president Antonio Costa and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said in response to Trump's post. "Europe will remain united, coordinated, and committed to upholding its sovereignty." "Applying tariffs on allies for pursuing the collective security of Nato allies is completely wrong," UK prime minister Keir Starmer said on Saturday. "We will of course be pursuing this directly with the US administration." US imports from the UK already are subject to a 10pc import tariff, and imports from the EU face a 15pc tariff. While Trump is threatening tariffs against seven out of 27 EU members, the bloc collectively negotiates trade matters and sets tariffs. Trump is scheduled to attend the Davos Economic Forum in Switzerland on 21-22 January. A bipartisan delegation of 11 US senators and members of the House of Representatives traveled to Copenhagen on 16 January to express support for Denmark's government and push back against Trump's designs on Greenland. "There is no need, or desire, for a costly acquisition or hostile military takeover of Greenland when our Danish and Greenlandic allies are eager to work with us on Arctic security, critical minerals and other priorities under the framework of long-standing treaties," said US senators Jeanne Shaheen (D-New Hampshire) and Thom Tills (R-North Carolina), who were part of the congressional delegation. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Mexican auto industry aims high in tough USMCA talks
Mexican auto industry aims high in tough USMCA talks
Mexico City, 15 January (Argus) — Mexico's auto industry wants a return to zero tariffs on vehicle exports to the US and Canada under a pending update of the free trade agreement (USMCA) between the three countries, but there are concerns about the speed of the talks. If negotiations succeed, USMCA would be renewed for another 17 years on 1 July 2026 — six years after its launch — a step that industry sources say is critical to restoring investor confidence and unlocking the full potential of nearshoring in Mexico. Mexico was the largest foreign source of vehicles for the US in 2025, supplying 17pc, or 2.7mn units, of the 16.2mn light vehicles sold in the US, according to automaker association AMIA. Mexico was also the top supplier of auto parts to the US in 2025 and the world's third-largest exporter of light vehicles by value. Industry representatives say that success now hinges on continuity in the treaty, which remains uncertain as disputes between Mexico, the US and Canada persist. Those concerns were outlined by Mexico's main auto groups at an event in Mexico City this week. Negotiations are unfolding under a tense US trade backdrop. In March 2025, US president Donald Trump imposed 25pc blanket tariffs on USMCA partners under a national security provision, measures that Mexican automakers are still seeking to unwind. "There is nothing more important right now than the treaty review and dealing with these tariffs still hanging over us," said Guillermo Rosales, head of auto dealers' association AMDA. "The goal must be to return to zero." A key point of contention is the treaty's regional value content rules, where light vehicles must contain at least 70pc North American content. That is a threshold more than 90pc of Mexican auto exports to the US already meet, but industry groups are pushing for flexibility for firms still on a compliance pathway. Heavy vehicle makers are still working to reach compliance. "We are at 64pc regional content and aiming for 70pc by 2027," said Mexico's association of truck and bus manufacturers Anpact head Rogelio Arzarte, noting that sourcing components not currently produced in North America remains complex. Mexico's industry is also seeking changes to the USMCA's rapid response labor mechanism, arguing it has been applied disproportionately against Mexican facilities. While talks began early, the process is already slipping. The US trade representative has yet to submit a required report to Congress, raising fears the review could drift toward US midterm elections, prolonging uncertainty and delaying investment. "I want to be positive," said AMIA head Rogelio Garza. "But it's not going to be easy for some industries, among which I believe we are included." By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Brazil antidumping duties to disrupt PE markets
Brazil antidumping duties to disrupt PE markets
Houston, 28 August (Argus) — Brazilian trade regulators' decision to impose provisional antidumping duties on polyethylene (PE) resin imports from the US and Canada is expected to disrupt trade flows throughout the Americas. The new duties issued by foreign trade council Gecex/Camex, set at $199.04/t for US-origin resin and $238.49/t for Canadian-origin resin, will be effective immediately and valid for up to six months. The duties are part of a broader shift in Brazil's trade policy, which raised overall polymer import taxes from 12.6pc to 20pc in October 2024. Decom will conclude the full antidumping investigation by 2 February 2026. A global trader active in the Brazilian market said on Thursday that they are already reassessing all delayed orders, pending shipments, and goods in transit to determine how to proceed with clients. Many of those clients have expressed concerns the measure is a strategy to improve Braskem's short-term financials, especially as creditor banks holding the company's shares as collateral are expected to take over the task of selling the company. This follows unsuccessful negotiations with Brazilian investor Nelson Tanure who had sought to acquire Braskem. In contrast, an executive at a Brazilian plastic resin converting company said the decision is good news, as it helps level the playing field with competitors in the Manaus Free Trade Zone, who largely import from the US under tax-free conditions, unlike buyers in the rest of Brazil. But there could be a side effect, the executive said, of manufacturers in Manaus turning to Asian suppliers, which may drive up prices for those imports as well. The executive said he is watching to see what Braskem's new pricing levels for September will be. With the antidumping duties in place, analysts expect a short-term drop in prices as exporters seek alternative destinations for resin traditionally sent to Brazil. Analysts expect Braskem to be the primary beneficiary for the measures, having faced ongoing losses, reduced operating rates, and workforce cuts. US-Brazil trade death blow? US traders are concerned with the new duties, with one trader saying it "will probably kill the economics" of trade between the US and Brazil. "It's just one more thing gone wrong," the trader said. "It will be a huge pain, short term." Another US trader said it expects some orders to be cancelled. Ultimately, traders said it is likely that more material will be sent from the US to surrounding countries, such as Uruguay, Argentina and Paraguay. But it is unlikely that those countries will be able to absorb all of the resin that had been moving to Brazil. "It's not good," said one North American producer of the new duties. "Brazil will not be the way to go [with exports]. We will need to move to other regions." Another producer agreed, saying the news "is not helpful," but that the full impact will not be known until Braskem announces its new price position. "This was initiated by Braskem, and they want to get their prices up," the producer said. "Where is the balance between Braskem getting their prices up and producers in North America absorbing some amount of [the anti-dumping duty]? That's obviously unknown at this point." The impact will likely be different from product-to-product and producer-to-producer. Brazilian buyers who are purchasing resin that is highly specialized and not easily replaced by another supplier, are likely to see their prices rise significantly. But buyers purchasing more commodity-type resin will have other supply alternatives and may not see as much of an impact. Trade flow changes likely The move is likely to result in some trade flow shifts. In some cases, US producers who have assets in other regions can shift volume from one region to another. For instance, a company like ExxonMobil, which has assets in Saudi Arabia and the US, could shift volume from Saudi Arabia to Brazil and move US material that would normally have gone to Brazil to other regions to fill in gaps traditionally sourced out of Saudi Arabia. Dow, which has assets in Argentina, is likely to supply more into Brazil from those assets, sources said. "Trade patterns will adjust," said a US trader. The antidumping measures could boost Braskem's pre-tax earnings by $150mn-$250mn, representing a 10-15pc increase, according to a July report by Brazilian bank BTG Pactual. If combined with the approval of legislation that restores tax incentives to the petrochemical sector, the company's earnings could rise by up to 45pc in 2026. Despite the potential upside, BTG maintains a neutral recommendation for Braskem shares, citing pressured spreads, high leverage, and unresolved environmental liabilities. By Fred Fernandes and Michelle Klump Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Brazil imposes PE duties on US, Canada
Brazil imposes PE duties on US, Canada
Sao Paulo, 28 August (Argus) — Brazil's foreign trade council, Gecex/Camex has confirmed provisional antidumping duties on polyethylene (PE) resin imports from the US and Canada effective immediately and valid for up to six months. Gecex/Camex set the duties at $199.04/t for US-origin resin and $238.49/t for Canadian-origin resin. These rates reflect the dumping margins identified by Decom, with a 10pc reduction applied. The decision follows a recommendation by the Department of Trade Defense (Decom), which found evidence of material injury to Brazil's domestic industry caused by US and Canadian PE imports. The investigation began on 31 July 2024, following a petition from petrochemical producer Braskem, Brazil's sole PE producer. Decom concluded that dumped imports continued to enter the market, posing further injury to the domestic industry. Brazil imported 706,000t of PE from January-June 2025, a 9.9pc decline compared to the same period in 2024. The US was the leading supplier, accounting for 488,800t, followed by Argentina, Canada, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia. Despite the looming tariffs, US shipments remained strong in the weeks leading up to the decision, as buyers who had delayed orders returned to the market. Prices for PE in Brazil had not reacted to the recommendation as of 22 August. Argus reported a sharp increase in LDPE prices for Brazil and the west coast of South America (WCSA) during that week. By Fred Fernandes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Brazil will not reciprocate US tariffs: Lula
Brazil will not reciprocate US tariffs: Lula
Sao Paulo, 14 August (Argus) — Brazil will not impose new reciprocal tariffs on US goods, according to president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, backing down from earlier pledges to counter the US' 50pc tariffs on Brazilian products. "We are negotiators," Lula said Wednesday after signing a decree to offer a line of credit to small businesses to counter the new US tariffs, which have been in effect since 6 August. "We do not want, at first, to do anything that would worsen our relationship [with the US]." Previously Lula said reciprocal tariffs could be used against the US, but earlier this year Lula also signed a new economic reciprocity law that spelled out how the country could react to limits on its trade — including provisions to negotiate and avoid actions that would further harm the country. The US tariffs affect over 35pc of Brazilian products that head to the US, representing 4pc of Brazilian exports, while 700 other products remain under 10pc charges effective since April. Brazil has a trade deficit for goods and services with the US, adding up to over $400bn over the last 15 years, finance minister Fernando Haddad said in a televised interview in early July. The US' trade surplus with Brazil reached $2.3bn in the first half of 2025, a more than seven-fold increase from a year before, according to US-Brazil chamber of commerce Amcham. The US is Brazil's second-largest trading partner behind China, receiving $40.3bn worth of exports in 2024, according to the Brazilian secretary of foreign trade. Brazil is seeking to challenge the US tariffs before the World Trade Organization, saying they "flagrantly violate core commitments made by the US to the WTO, such as the most-favored-nation principle and the negotiated tariff ceilings". Industry urges cautious response Lula's decision follows pleas from different industry groups to not retaliate against the US tariffs. "There is no technical or economic justification for the tariff hike, but we believe now is not the time to retaliate," said Brazilian industry lobby group CNI's president Ricardo Alban in July. "We continue to defend negotiations as a way to convince the American government that this measure is a lose-lose situation for both countries." An Amcham survey of Brazilian companies found that 86pc believe reciprocal action from Brazil against the US would "worsen bilateral tensions and reduce space for negotiations". Haddad was to meet US treasury secretary Scott Bessent on 13 August to discuss the tariffs, but he said that the meeting was cancelled . Brazil will also seek to continue to open markets with other countries, Lula said. It has has been speaking other Brics countries — the informal forum of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — to improve relations among countries affected by the US tariffs, Lula said. The group accounts for around 40pc of the global economy, according to IMF. Brazil will send at least 500 business representatives to India in January to discuss opportunities in trade, energy, critical minerals and other areas, according to the government. "Instead of crying over losses, we will seek winning somewhere else," Lula said. "The world is big and is eager to negotiate with Brazil." By João Curi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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US soy volatile on possible China buying
US soy volatile on possible China buying
St Louis, 6 February (Argus) — US soybean futures contracts briefly spiked early today as the market adjusted to signs that China may again be resuming US soybean purchasing. The May delivered Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean contract gained $0.174/bushel (bu) within an hour of opening this morning, before shedding those gains and then some, closing the day down by $0.042/bu at $11.28/bu. The May CBOT contract still closed the day slightly above Thursday's closing value, marking the fourth consecutive day of gains this week. Basis gains for new crop soybeans loaded in the Pacific Northwest were also reported today, further support for what market sources tell Argus is Chinese buyers re-engaging with the US. Buyers may have contracted overnight for as many as seven cargoes for April-May loading in the US Gulf, according to sources. Friday's trades follow an unanticipated boost to futures prices on 4 February from a social media post from US president Donald Trump declaring China would increase its US soybean purchases by 8mn t. If China has returned to US soybean markets, it raises questions regarding the outlook for US-Chinese soybean trade going forward. Currently, China has an agreement to purchase 12mn t of US soybeans by the end of this month, and another 25mn t per-year for the next three years. As of 29 January, total US soybean sales to China reached 9.89mn t for this marketing year, with 100,000t sold during that week alone, according to US Department of Agriculture data. This seems to be at odds with US treasury secretary Scott Bessent's claim on 20 January that China had completed its purchases of the first 12mn t. If China did purchase more US soybeans this morning, in line with Trump's claim the country would buy another 8mn t, it is unclear how these sales would tally towards the current agreement. If they are considered an extension of the current 12mn t agreement, then that might mean China will move to secure these volumes before the end of February. If not, they might be added to the 25mn t obligation for 2026. That would put US soybean sales to China at 33mn t for 2026, which would be the most since the 2020-21 marketing year. Either way, Trump's claim and the potential re-engaging of China in US soybean markets is likely to detach the markets understanding of the US-China soybean trade agreement from its stated terms. That could mean more volatility and uncertainty for commodity prices moving forward. By Ryan Koory Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Trump threatens 10pc tariff against UK, EU members
Trump threatens 10pc tariff against UK, EU members
Houston, 17 January (Argus) — President Donald Trump on Saturday threatened to impose a 10pc tariff on US imports from the UK and seven key members of the EU, citing their participation in a military mission in Denmark's Greenland territory, which he is threatening to annex. US imports from the UK, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, The Netherlands, Norway and Sweden would be subject to a 10pc tariff from 1 February, rising to a 25pc tariff from 1 June, Trump announced via his social media platform. The tariff would remain in place until "such time as a Deal is reached for the Complete and Total purchase of Greenland", Trump said. Trump has stepped up discussion of taking over Greenland — a self-governing island under Denmark's control — following a US special forces raid that captured Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro on 3 January. Denmark and Greenland have rejected US overtures to buy the island, as well as Trump's threat to take over the island by force. Trump is citing Greenland's alleged lack of military protection as the latest justification for his threats. He has denigrated Denmark's commitment to the island's defense against alleged threats from Russia and China. "They currently have two dogsleds as protection, one added recently," Trump said on Saturday. Denmark's foreign minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen, who traveled to Washington on 14 January to meet Trump administration officials, pushed back against that accusation. "Denmark has already stepped up our own contribution by committing additional funds for military capabilities — not [dogsleds], but ships, drones, fighter jets," Rasmussen said. The countries threatened with new tariffs by Trump joined Denmark to dispatch troops and military experts to Greenland on a mission to assess the island's security needs. Trump on Saturday said that the reconnaissance mission "journeyed to Greenland, for purposes unknown." EU leaders expressed solidarity with Denmark and called for dialogue, but they omitted mention of possible retaliation if Trump makes good on his threat to impose new tariffs. "Tariffs would undermine transatlantic relations and risk a dangerous downward spiral," European Council president Antonio Costa and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said in response to Trump's post. "Europe will remain united, coordinated, and committed to upholding its sovereignty." "Applying tariffs on allies for pursuing the collective security of Nato allies is completely wrong," UK prime minister Keir Starmer said on Saturday. "We will of course be pursuing this directly with the US administration." US imports from the UK already are subject to a 10pc import tariff, and imports from the EU face a 15pc tariff. While Trump is threatening tariffs against seven out of 27 EU members, the bloc collectively negotiates trade matters and sets tariffs. Trump is scheduled to attend the Davos Economic Forum in Switzerland on 21-22 January. A bipartisan delegation of 11 US senators and members of the House of Representatives traveled to Copenhagen on 16 January to express support for Denmark's government and push back against Trump's designs on Greenland. "There is no need, or desire, for a costly acquisition or hostile military takeover of Greenland when our Danish and Greenlandic allies are eager to work with us on Arctic security, critical minerals and other priorities under the framework of long-standing treaties," said US senators Jeanne Shaheen (D-New Hampshire) and Thom Tills (R-North Carolina), who were part of the congressional delegation. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
'Plan B' for Trump tariffs involves 10pc duty
'Plan B' for Trump tariffs involves 10pc duty
Washington, 16 January (Argus) — President Donald Trump's administration is prepared to impose a temporary 10pc tax on imports before rolling out more permanent measures in case the US Supreme Court strikes down emergency tariffs imposed in 2025, a senior White House adviser said. "We can put a 10pc tariff right away to make up most of the room, and then use things like the 301 authorities, the 232 authorities, to backfill the things that we've already achieved," White House national economic council director Kevin Hassett told Fox Business Friday. The Supreme Court, in a Friday update on its website, said it may issue a decision on one of its pending cases on 20 January at 10am ET. That will mark the court's next chance to decide on the tariff case since holding oral arguments in early November. The opinion could also be for an unrelated case that is also pending before the high court. Hassett, like other Trump officials, has expressed confidence about the administration's ability to prevail in court while, at the same time, outlining a possible fallback plan in case of legal defeat. The reference to a 10pc tariff is the most explicit confirmation to date of a possible route the administration plans to take if the high court strikes down Trump's tariffs. Hassett likely is referencing a possible invocation of Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, which allows the White House to impose tariffs of up to 15pc for a period of 150 days to address a balance of payment issue. But subsequent extensions would require explicit authorization from Congress. The administration likely will use the time period to prioritize the countries and industries it will target with tariffs next. Targeting a specific industry would rely on a "Section 232" authority that allows the Commerce Department or US Trade Representative's office to determine whether imports of a product need to be curbed on national security grounds. A Section 301 investigation would target a specific country on the grounds that it is discriminating against US exports. In both cases, the process leading up to the imposition of tariffs can take months, requires public consultation and allows carveouts for the affected US importers. The future Supreme Court decision will affect Trump's tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China, where he cited an economic emergency created by the three countries' alleged inaction to stop the flow of fentanyl drugs into the US. The Supreme Court will also address Trump's most extensive action — imposing tariffs of 10pc and higher since 5 April on nearly every US trading partner to address the "economic emergency" of persistent US trade deficits. In both cases, Trump cited a 1977 law called the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which previous presidents only used to impose targeted economic sanctions, to impose tariffs on nearly all US trading partners. The Supreme Court's decision on IEEPA tariffs also would affect the tariffs Trump imposed on imports from Brazil and India, US government lawyers informed the Court of International Trade last week. Trump cited Brazil's alleged suppression of freedom of speech as a reason to impose tariffs. In the case of India, Trump imposed an extra 25pc tariff because of India's purchase of Russian crude. The Supreme Court's decision will not affect tariffs on US imports of steel, aluminum, cars and auto parts, which Trump imposed by citing well-tested legal trade authorities. The money issue One of the issues that prompted even conservative justices to express skepticism about Trump's emergency tariffs during the oral argument in November related to their function in raising government revenue. Government lawyers countered at the time that tariffs were a foreign and economic policy tool for the White House, rather than a tax, which the Constitution says only Congress can impose. The US has collected nearly $260bn in customs duties during the first 11 months of Trump's second term, according to data from the US Treasury Department. Hundreds of companies have already filed lawsuits seeking to recover the tariffs, but Trump warned earlier this week that paying them back could take "years" to figure out. "It would be a complete mess, and almost impossible for our country to pay," Trump said on 12 January via his social media network. "Anybody who says that it can be quickly and easily done would be making a false, inaccurate, or totally misunderstood answer to this very large and complex question." By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US to roll out $12bn of farmer aid
US to roll out $12bn of farmer aid
Houston, 8 December (Argus) — US president Donald Trump today announced $12bn of aid payments to farmers to help offset the financial burdens of high-cost inputs and low crop prices. Trump today during a roundtable meeting at the White House said that he will leverage revenues collected from tariffs to secure $12bn worth of funding for farm assistance. Of the full aid package, $11bn will be used for the farmer bridge assistance (FBA) program, which provides broad relief to growers of corn, soybeans, wheat and other crops and grains, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). Farmers who qualify for the FBA program can expect to receive payments by 28 February, with commodity-specific rates expected to be released by the end of this month. The remaining $1bn of bridge payments are reserved for commodities not covered under the FBA program such as specialty crops and sugar, according to the USDA. But details and a timeline of these payments were not immediately released. After the White House meeting, the USDA clarified that the $12bn in funds would be authorized under the Commodity Credit Corporation Charter (CCC) Act and administered by the Farm Service Agency. How funds authorized by the CCC are tied to tariff revenue was not immediately clear. The Argus NPK fertilizer affordability index has recovered from its lows earlier in the year, but remains at around 0.89 on 4 December, indicating lower crop prices relative to input costs. Front-month CBOT corn prices have increased by about 20¢/bushel since 1 October to $4.36/bushel on 8 December, while granular urea prices at Nola have declined by $46/st on a midpoint basis to $355.50/st fob Nola over the same period, according to Argus data. Market participants expect most of the aid to go toward paying down debt farmers have accumulated while operating on thin margins in recent years. The removal of fertilizer tariffs drove significant declines in phosphate, urea, and UAN prices, slightly easing input costs for growers. USDA expects 95mn acres of corn to be planted next year, so clearing debt could open the door for more borrowing and spring spending, depending on when these payouts arrive. The push to bolster domestic production to reduce reliance on fertilizer imports remains a key effort by the Trump administration to improve farmer profitability. Trump said he would even impose "very severe tariffs" on Canada if it was necessary to expand US production, but that would be a departure from administration trade policy that has so far exempted Canadian fertilizer imports, especially potash, from tariffs. Trump said he is willing to use tariff revenue again should farmers find they need additional relief. Calls for farmer aid have come from the Trump administration since as early as September this year, but were stalled by the partial shutdown of the US government and questions about how aid could be funded. By Sneha Kumar and Chris Mullins Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US tariff threat may put Canadian scrap at risk
US tariff threat may put Canadian scrap at risk
Pittsburgh, 26 January (Argus) — US president Donald Trump's threat to impose 100pc tariffs on imports from Canada may disrupt aluminum and ferrous scrap flows to US consumers who rely on their northern neighbor to supplement domestic feedstock sources. Trump threatened the tariff against all imports from Canada on 24 January if Ottawa concludes a trade deal with Beijing. It is unclear if ferrous and non-ferrous scrap metal compliant with the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement (USMCA) would remain exempt from the new tariffs, if they were imposed. The White House did not respond to a request for additional details and has not released an executive order backing Trump's Canada tariff threat, nor has it explained which Canada-China trade deal he was referencing. USMCA-compliant imports were exempt from the 35pc tariff the US government imposed on some Canadian imports on 1 August. Uncertainty will remain a concern for US steel and aluminum makers and Canadian scrap shippers until the new tariff rate officially goes into effect through an executive order. Canada is a major shipper of ferrous and aluminum scrap to the US. The country shipped 396,000t of aluminum scrap to the US from January through October 2025, accounting for nearly 55pc of imports, US Commerce Department data show. The second-largest supplier to the US, Mexico, shipped 223,000t in the same period. Canada also supplied 63pc of the 2.2mn t of ferrous scrap the US imported from January through October. The country was the second-largest shipper of prime scrap to the US after Mexico, with 444,000t during the same period. By Brad MacAulay and Alex Nicoll Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Greenland tariff spat could hurt US steelmakers
Greenland tariff spat could hurt US steelmakers
Pittsburgh, 20 January (Argus) — Rising trade tensions between the US and Europe over control of Greenland could raise raw material costs for US electric arc furnace (EAF) steelmakers importing prime scrap. President Donald Trump threatened on 17 January to impose an additional 10pc tariff on US imports from the UK, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway and Sweden from 1 February, because of their participation in a military mission in Denmark's Greenland territory, which he is threatening to annex. The tariffs will rise to 25pc from 1 June if a deal for US ownership of Greenland is not reached, Trump said on his social media platform. Greenland is a self-governing island under Denmark's control. The Netherlands, Poland, Sweden and the UK are major suppliers of prime scrap to the US. US imports from those nations have been subject to tariffs since April 2025, at rates of 10pc from the UK and 15pc from the EU. EAF steelmakers typically rely on European prime scrap imports to relieve pressure on domestic supply and #1 busheling pricing. US steelmakers have paid higher raw material costs due to import tariffs over the last year as stricter import controls have significantly supported the domestic steel market and offset the added import fees. Prime scrap imports from the Netherlands, Poland, Sweden and the UK rose by 61pc in 2025 to 403,000 metric tonnes (t) between January and October 2025, compared with the same period of 2024, despite the April tariffs. But mills shifted the import ratio to favor shipments from the UK because of its lower tariff rate. UK prime scrap shipments accounted for 68pc of all European shipments between April and October, compared with only 10pc in the same period of the prior year. This sourcing shift could signal that US mills will adopt a similar pattern if tariff rates rise by an additional 10pc in February and to 25pc in June. Canada and Mexico have been the largest sources of prime scrap imports to the US, at around 34pc between January-October 2025. Any shift to North American consumption could support scrap suppliers with large prime scrap inventories that have been overhanging the US market over the last year. EU leaders will meet on 22 January to agree on the bloc's response to Trump's threat to annex Greenland and to impose the additional tariffs. By Brad MacAulay Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Trump threatens 10pc tariff against UK, EU members
Trump threatens 10pc tariff against UK, EU members
Houston, 17 January (Argus) — President Donald Trump on Saturday threatened to impose a 10pc tariff on US imports from the UK and seven key members of the EU, citing their participation in a military mission in Denmark's Greenland territory, which he is threatening to annex. US imports from the UK, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, The Netherlands, Norway and Sweden would be subject to a 10pc tariff from 1 February, rising to a 25pc tariff from 1 June, Trump announced via his social media platform. The tariff would remain in place until "such time as a Deal is reached for the Complete and Total purchase of Greenland", Trump said. Trump has stepped up discussion of taking over Greenland — a self-governing island under Denmark's control — following a US special forces raid that captured Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro on 3 January. Denmark and Greenland have rejected US overtures to buy the island, as well as Trump's threat to take over the island by force. Trump is citing Greenland's alleged lack of military protection as the latest justification for his threats. He has denigrated Denmark's commitment to the island's defense against alleged threats from Russia and China. "They currently have two dogsleds as protection, one added recently," Trump said on Saturday. Denmark's foreign minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen, who traveled to Washington on 14 January to meet Trump administration officials, pushed back against that accusation. "Denmark has already stepped up our own contribution by committing additional funds for military capabilities — not [dogsleds], but ships, drones, fighter jets," Rasmussen said. The countries threatened with new tariffs by Trump joined Denmark to dispatch troops and military experts to Greenland on a mission to assess the island's security needs. Trump on Saturday said that the reconnaissance mission "journeyed to Greenland, for purposes unknown." EU leaders expressed solidarity with Denmark and called for dialogue, but they omitted mention of possible retaliation if Trump makes good on his threat to impose new tariffs. "Tariffs would undermine transatlantic relations and risk a dangerous downward spiral," European Council president Antonio Costa and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said in response to Trump's post. "Europe will remain united, coordinated, and committed to upholding its sovereignty." "Applying tariffs on allies for pursuing the collective security of Nato allies is completely wrong," UK prime minister Keir Starmer said on Saturday. "We will of course be pursuing this directly with the US administration." US imports from the UK already are subject to a 10pc import tariff, and imports from the EU face a 15pc tariff. While Trump is threatening tariffs against seven out of 27 EU members, the bloc collectively negotiates trade matters and sets tariffs. Trump is scheduled to attend the Davos Economic Forum in Switzerland on 21-22 January. A bipartisan delegation of 11 US senators and members of the House of Representatives traveled to Copenhagen on 16 January to express support for Denmark's government and push back against Trump's designs on Greenland. "There is no need, or desire, for a costly acquisition or hostile military takeover of Greenland when our Danish and Greenlandic allies are eager to work with us on Arctic security, critical minerals and other priorities under the framework of long-standing treaties," said US senators Jeanne Shaheen (D-New Hampshire) and Thom Tills (R-North Carolina), who were part of the congressional delegation. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Greenland’s resources face extraction hurdles
Greenland’s resources face extraction hurdles
Houston, 16 January (Argus) — Greenland's natural resources have returned to the fore since US president Donald Trump renewed his interest in acquiring the Danish autonomous territory, but the island's rare earths (REEs) and "critical minerals" will likely remain mostly commercially untapped amid extraction challenges and a lack of commercial viability without significant government financing. Trump recently denied that rare earths and "critical minerals" are a major motive in the push to acquire the territory, stating, "we need Greenland for national security, not minerals". Still, members of his administration have previously noted some interest in its resources, including US ambassador to the UN and former national security advisor Mike Waltz, who told Fox News in a January 2025 interview that "this is about critical minerals" in addition to national security when asked about US interest in Greenland. Geopolitical tensions grow Trump's chief policy advisor, Stephen Miller, last week told CNN that the "formal position" of the US government is that it should control Greenland "to protect and defend Nato and Nato interests". The notion was opposed by Europe, causing leaders of six European nations to put their names to a 6 January statement , with Denmark defending the sovereignty of Greenland in the face of US threats. In the following days, Trump said the US aims to acquire Greenland "whether they like it or not", claiming that if the US does not acquire the territory "Russia or China will take over Greenland". US, Danish and Greenlandic officials met in Washington on 14 January, but talks ultimately ended without agreement . "It's clear that the [US] president has this wish of conquering Greenland," Danish foreign minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen told reporters after the meeting. The meeting left both sides "with a fundamental disagreement" about Greenland's future, and "we didn't manage to change the American position", Rasmussen said. Trump's push for the US' acquisition of Greenland now involves tariff threats against countries opposing the move, saying, "I may put a tariff on countries if they don't go along with Greenland, because we need Greenland for national security", during remarks on Friday at an event dedicated to improving healthcare in US rural areas. Known resources and extraction challenges Greenland holds significant reserves of REEs and other "critical minerals", many of which serve essential — and sometimes non-substitutable — roles in various applications across many sectors, including defense, energy and automotive, among many others. The territory holds an estimated 36.1mn metric tonnes (t) of light and heavy rare earths, though only 1.5mn t of resources are proven, according to the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS) and the US Geological Survey (USGS), respectively. Greenland holds the eighth-largest proven REE resources in the world, according to the USGS, but, Greenland does not actively produce any rare earths. In addition to rare earths, Greenland is also home to a "high" resource potential of molybdenum, graphite, hafnium, niobium, platinum group metals, tantalum and titanium, among others, according to estimates from GEUS. The island holds significant reserves of uranium, though its government banned mining of that element in 2021. Despite the resource quantities, few companies participate in Greenland's mining industry as difficult geological and geographical factors, harsh weather and limited existing infrastructure imply high operational costs, according to GEUS. A few rare earths and "critical minerals" projects are in exploratory phases however, and have received significant interest in government funding to propel production. Current projects US-based Critical Metals owns the Tanbreez project in southern Greenland, which holds an estimated 27pc of global heavy rare earths, according to the company, but the project has yet to achieve commercial production. The company has signed several offtake agreements within the last year, including with REalloys , Ucore Rare Metals and Saudi firm Tariq Abdel Hadi Abdullah Al-Qahtani & Brothers Company. As of Thursday, all of the project's rare earths concentrate production is now slated for offtake under long-term contract agreements, according to Critical Metals. Critical Metals received a letter of interest for $120mn from the US Export-Import Bank for its Tanbreez rare earths project in June, covering studies, pre-production and initial mining. Canadian firm Greenland Resources' was granted a 30-year exploitation permit for molybdenum and magnesium for its Malmberg project in east Greenland in June, but has yet to start commercial production. The company has signed long-term supply agreements from the project with Finland-based stainless steel producer Outokumpu , German metal supplier Hempel Metallurgical and Italian specialty steel manufacturer Cogne Acciai Speciali within the last year. Greenland Resources also has significant funding interest from European government agencies. The European Union said in December it will help fund the molybdenum project , noting the project could quickly deliver on the EU's needs for molybdenum for the defense sector. The project also received support from the European Raw Materials Association in 2022. By Reagan Patrowicz Estimated Contained Resources in Greenland metric tonnes (t) Element Resource Estimates (2023) Antimony 3,780 Chromium 560,000 Copper 108,000 Gallium 152,000 Graphite 6,000,000 Hafnium 108,000 Lithium 235,000 Molybdenum 324,000 Niobium 5,900,000 Platinum Group Metals 576 Rare Earth Elements 36,100,000 Silicon 2,800,000 Tantalum 916,000 Titanium 12,100,000 Tungsten 26,200 Vanadium 179,000 Zirconium 57,100,000 List not indicative of all resources. Totals summed by GEUS from resource estimations of known individual deposits in Greenland. Source: Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
