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Sao Paulo, 4 December (Argus) — Brazil is set to produce its third-largest coffee crop ever this year, despite it being a low productivity year in the crop cycle, according to national supply company Conab's last crop estimate for this cycle. Brazil will produce almost 56.5mn 60kg bags of coffee this year, up from the previous forecast released in September of 55.2mn bags. The upward revision was driven by higher average national productivity, reflecting a better performance of Conilon coffee crops, one of the two major types of coffee grown in Brazil. This is above the 51.8mn bags first projected for the season and surpasses the 2024 crop, which produced 54.2mn bags. Droughts, irregularly distributed rainfall and high temperatures severely hampered yields in the prior cycle, despite initial expectations for a high-producing one. Coffee cycles occur biennially in Brazil, with larger volumes produced in alternating years. During the lower producing years — known as negative years — plants replenish their nutritional reserves, leading to reduced output. The 2025 cycle is considered a negative year, with the current estimate representing an all-time high for a negative year, topping the record registered in the 2023 crop, when Brazil produced nearly 55.1mn bags. It is expected to rank as the third-largest in the nation's history, only behind the positive cycles of 2020 and 2018, which produced 63.1mn bags and 61.7mn bags, respectively. Conab revised the outlook for the current cycle based on an increase in expected yields to 30.4 bags/hectare (ha) from 29.7 bags/ha in the prior forecast. That is up by 5.5pc from 28.8 bags/ha in the positive 2024 year and compares with 29.4 bags/ha in the negative 2023 cycle. Brazil grows two types of coffee: the higher-grade Arabica coffee and the Conilon grade coffee, also referred to as Robusta. These varieties have different taste, caffeine content and productivity levels, as well as distinct producing regions and harvesting calendars. Arabica coffee production is forecast at around 35.8mn bags, ahead of the nearly 35.2mn bags projected in September, but down from 39.6mn bags in 2024. There has been significant vegetative recovery in crops, mainly in southeastern Minas Gerais state, Brazil's largest producer, which contributed to an increase compared to the previous estimate, according to Conab. Yields rose to 24.1 bags/ha from 23.7 bags/ha in September. That is behind the 26.2 bags/ha in 2024. Conilon coffee output should reach an overall record of 20.8mn bags, up from 20.1mn bags in the previous outlook following the consistent weather conditions in major producing states Espirito Santo and Bahia that promoted good conditions for areas and resulted in high yields. That compares with 14.6mn bags in the prior cycle. Yields are up to 55.9 bags/ha, from 53.8 bags/ha estimated in September and 39.2 bags/ha yielded in 2024. Conab continues to expect the total area allocated to both coffee grades to reach approximately 2.25mn ha this cycle, 0.9pc above on the year. The area set aside for coffee is split between space for production and new crops. Areas allocated to crops in production fell by 1.2pc on the year to nearly 1.86mn ha. New areas account for around 396,428ha, up by 12pc, as is usual for negative years. Coffee exports fall on year Brazil exported 34.2mn bags of coffee in January-October, around 17.8pc below the total shipped in the same period a year before, according to trade ministry Mdic data. This reduction in volume exported in the first ten months of 2025 is mainly because of limited domestic stocks at the beginning of the year, following a record shipment of 50.5mn bags in 2024. Tariffs imposed by the US from April onwards, a major buyer of Brazilian coffee, also contributed to the reduction in exports. Brazil exported coffee to 150 countries in the first ten months of 2025. The US and Germany accounted for the largest share of shipments, with 14.1pc and 14pc, respectively. Italy received 8.1pc of exports, Belgium and Japan 6.3pc each. By João Petrini Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Adds detail on the lack of full exemption status for ammonia and recent Nola urea futures trade Houston, 14 November (Argus) — US president Donald Trump said today key nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers, among other agricultural products , are exempt from US import tariffs that were implemented in April, but ammonia's status under the tariff modification remains unclear. After just seven months in place, tariffs that have curbed imports to US shores and elevated the price of fertilizers have been lifted, according to a modification to Executive Order 14257 issued by the White House today. Fertilizers exempted from the tariffs include urea, ammonium nitrate, UAN, ammonium sulfate, TSP, DAP and MAP. Ammonia could qualify for tariff exemptions, but eligibility will be determined on a case-by-case basis by the secretary of commerce and the US Trade Representative, depending on the terms of existing or ongoing trade negotiations with each country. Potassium fertilizers like MOP were already exempt from import tariffs. The modification to the tariffs went into effect for goods imported starting 13 November. January Nola urea futures traded down roughly $30/st late Friday afternoon to $360/st fob following the announcement, but otherwise activity was largely subdued given the modifications' proximity to the weekend. Fertilizer values will likely begin to price-in the change in trade policy starting Monday. Most fertilizer exporting countries, except for Russia , faced tariff rates of 10-15pc, with some suppliers even facing up to 30pc tariffs, resulting in major shifts in fertilizer trade. Exporters have avoided the US, favoring alternative destinations for their supply. But trade flows could normalize now that fertilizers are now tariff-free. The tariffs have contributed to eroding fertilizer affordability relative to crop prices in the US this year, driving fertilizer prices to multi-year highs and significantly curbing demand for nutrients across the country. Lower cost imports could help unwind farmer reluctance to enter the market leading up to the spring season in 2026. The announcement should provide importers and distributors with some certainty headed into next spring after months of being kept on edge by shifting US trade policy. By Calder Jett and Sneha Kumar Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Houston, 14 November (Argus) — US president Donald Trump said today key nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers, among other agricultural products, are exempt from US import tariffs that were implemented in April. After just seven months in place, tariffs that have curbed imports to US shores and elevated the price of key fertilizers have been lifted, according to a modification to Executive Order 14257 issued by the White House today. Fertilizers exempted from the tariffs include ammonia, urea, ammonium nitrate, UAN, ammonium sulfate, DAP and MAP. Potassium fertilizers like MOP were already exempt from import tariffs. The modification to the tariffs will go into effect for goods imported starting 13 November. Most fertilizer exporting countries, except for Russia , faced tariff rates of 10-15pc, with some suppliers even facing up to 30pc tariffs, resulting in major shifts in fertilizer trade. Exporters have avoided the US, favoring alternative destinations for their supply. But trade flows could normalize now that fertilizers are now tariff-free. The tariffs have contributed to eroding fertilizer affordability relative to crop prices in the US this year, driving fertilizer prices to multi-year highs and significantly curbing demand for nutrients across the country. Lower cost imports could help unwind farmer reluctance to enter the market leading up to the spring season in 2026. By Calder Jett and Sneha Kumar Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Sao Paulo, 29 August (Argus) — Brazil has started the process of developing reciprocal tariffs against the US, vice-president and trade minister Geraldo Alckmin said, a move designed to speed up negotiations. Brazil's foreign trade chamber, Camex, has 30 days to determine how the 50pc tariffs the US imposed on Brazil effective 6 August can be countered under the country's economic reciprocity law approved in April. The law authorizes retaliation through goods, services and intellectual property. There is no time frame for the process of imposing reciprocal tariffs after the initial 30-day deliberation period. "Brazil will not give up on its sovereignty," Alckmin said this week during a visit to Mexico, where he signed two cooperation agreements on biofuels with Mexico as well as a letter of intent on agriculture. "I hope that [this process] will help accelerate dialogue and negotiations [with the US], which is what president Lula has been asking us to do." The move comes weeks after President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva had said that Brazil would not reciprocate the tariffs but seek to negotiate. Brazil has been working to counter the tariffs' effect on its economy by supporting companies in efforts to find new markets , and by approving a line of credit to small businesses hurt by the measures. Earlier this month, Brazil asked the World Trade Organization to intervene in the dispute over tariffs. The US typically runs a trade surplus for goods and services with Brazil, which has totaled more than $400bn over the last 15 years, finance minister Fernando Haddad said in a televised interview in early July. In the first half of 2025 the US' trade surplus with Brazil reached $2.3bn, a more than seven-fold increase from a year before, according to US-Brazil chamber of commerce Amcham. By Maria Frazatto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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Pittsburgh, 26 January (Argus) — US president Donald Trump's threat to impose 100pc tariffs on imports from Canada may disrupt aluminum and ferrous scrap flows to US consumers who rely on their northern neighbor to supplement domestic feedstock sources. Trump threatened the tariff against all imports from Canada on 24 January if Ottawa concludes a trade deal with Beijing. It is unclear if ferrous and non-ferrous scrap metal compliant with the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement (USMCA) would remain exempt from the new tariffs, if they were imposed. The White House did not respond to a request for additional details and has not released an executive order backing Trump's Canada tariff threat, nor has it explained which Canada-China trade deal he was referencing. USMCA-compliant imports were exempt from the 35pc tariff the US government imposed on some Canadian imports on 1 August. Uncertainty will remain a concern for US steel and aluminum makers and Canadian scrap shippers until the new tariff rate officially goes into effect through an executive order. Canada is a major shipper of ferrous and aluminum scrap to the US. The country shipped 396,000t of aluminum scrap to the US from January through October 2025, accounting for nearly 55pc of imports, US Commerce Department data show. The second-largest supplier to the US, Mexico, shipped 223,000t in the same period. Canada also supplied 63pc of the 2.2mn t of ferrous scrap the US imported from January through October. The country was the second-largest shipper of prime scrap to the US after Mexico, with 444,000t during the same period. By Brad MacAulay and Alex Nicoll Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Pittsburgh, 20 January (Argus) — Rising trade tensions between the US and Europe over control of Greenland could raise raw material costs for US electric arc furnace (EAF) steelmakers importing prime scrap. President Donald Trump threatened on 17 January to impose an additional 10pc tariff on US imports from the UK, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway and Sweden from 1 February, because of their participation in a military mission in Denmark's Greenland territory, which he is threatening to annex. The tariffs will rise to 25pc from 1 June if a deal for US ownership of Greenland is not reached, Trump said on his social media platform. Greenland is a self-governing island under Denmark's control. The Netherlands, Poland, Sweden and the UK are major suppliers of prime scrap to the US. US imports from those nations have been subject to tariffs since April 2025, at rates of 10pc from the UK and 15pc from the EU. EAF steelmakers typically rely on European prime scrap imports to relieve pressure on domestic supply and #1 busheling pricing. US steelmakers have paid higher raw material costs due to import tariffs over the last year as stricter import controls have significantly supported the domestic steel market and offset the added import fees. Prime scrap imports from the Netherlands, Poland, Sweden and the UK rose by 61pc in 2025 to 403,000 metric tonnes (t) between January and October 2025, compared with the same period of 2024, despite the April tariffs. But mills shifted the import ratio to favor shipments from the UK because of its lower tariff rate. UK prime scrap shipments accounted for 68pc of all European shipments between April and October, compared with only 10pc in the same period of the prior year. This sourcing shift could signal that US mills will adopt a similar pattern if tariff rates rise by an additional 10pc in February and to 25pc in June. Canada and Mexico have been the largest sources of prime scrap imports to the US, at around 34pc between January-October 2025. Any shift to North American consumption could support scrap suppliers with large prime scrap inventories that have been overhanging the US market over the last year. EU leaders will meet on 22 January to agree on the bloc's response to Trump's threat to annex Greenland and to impose the additional tariffs. By Brad MacAulay Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Houston, 17 January (Argus) — President Donald Trump on Saturday threatened to impose a 10pc tariff on US imports from the UK and seven key members of the EU, citing their participation in a military mission in Denmark's Greenland territory, which he is threatening to annex. US imports from the UK, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, The Netherlands, Norway and Sweden would be subject to a 10pc tariff from 1 February, rising to a 25pc tariff from 1 June, Trump announced via his social media platform. The tariff would remain in place until "such time as a Deal is reached for the Complete and Total purchase of Greenland", Trump said. Trump has stepped up discussion of taking over Greenland — a self-governing island under Denmark's control — following a US special forces raid that captured Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro on 3 January. Denmark and Greenland have rejected US overtures to buy the island, as well as Trump's threat to take over the island by force. Trump is citing Greenland's alleged lack of military protection as the latest justification for his threats. He has denigrated Denmark's commitment to the island's defense against alleged threats from Russia and China. "They currently have two dogsleds as protection, one added recently," Trump said on Saturday. Denmark's foreign minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen, who traveled to Washington on 14 January to meet Trump administration officials, pushed back against that accusation. "Denmark has already stepped up our own contribution by committing additional funds for military capabilities — not [dogsleds], but ships, drones, fighter jets," Rasmussen said. The countries threatened with new tariffs by Trump joined Denmark to dispatch troops and military experts to Greenland on a mission to assess the island's security needs. Trump on Saturday said that the reconnaissance mission "journeyed to Greenland, for purposes unknown." EU leaders expressed solidarity with Denmark and called for dialogue, but they omitted mention of possible retaliation if Trump makes good on his threat to impose new tariffs. "Tariffs would undermine transatlantic relations and risk a dangerous downward spiral," European Council president Antonio Costa and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said in response to Trump's post. "Europe will remain united, coordinated, and committed to upholding its sovereignty." "Applying tariffs on allies for pursuing the collective security of Nato allies is completely wrong," UK prime minister Keir Starmer said on Saturday. "We will of course be pursuing this directly with the US administration." US imports from the UK already are subject to a 10pc import tariff, and imports from the EU face a 15pc tariff. While Trump is threatening tariffs against seven out of 27 EU members, the bloc collectively negotiates trade matters and sets tariffs. Trump is scheduled to attend the Davos Economic Forum in Switzerland on 21-22 January. A bipartisan delegation of 11 US senators and members of the House of Representatives traveled to Copenhagen on 16 January to express support for Denmark's government and push back against Trump's designs on Greenland. "There is no need, or desire, for a costly acquisition or hostile military takeover of Greenland when our Danish and Greenlandic allies are eager to work with us on Arctic security, critical minerals and other priorities under the framework of long-standing treaties," said US senators Jeanne Shaheen (D-New Hampshire) and Thom Tills (R-North Carolina), who were part of the congressional delegation. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Houston, 16 January (Argus) — Greenland's natural resources have returned to the fore since US president Donald Trump renewed his interest in acquiring the Danish autonomous territory, but the island's rare earths (REEs) and "critical minerals" will likely remain mostly commercially untapped amid extraction challenges and a lack of commercial viability without significant government financing. Trump recently denied that rare earths and "critical minerals" are a major motive in the push to acquire the territory, stating, "we need Greenland for national security, not minerals". Still, members of his administration have previously noted some interest in its resources, including US ambassador to the UN and former national security advisor Mike Waltz, who told Fox News in a January 2025 interview that "this is about critical minerals" in addition to national security when asked about US interest in Greenland. Geopolitical tensions grow Trump's chief policy advisor, Stephen Miller, last week told CNN that the "formal position" of the US government is that it should control Greenland "to protect and defend Nato and Nato interests". The notion was opposed by Europe, causing leaders of six European nations to put their names to a 6 January statement , with Denmark defending the sovereignty of Greenland in the face of US threats. In the following days, Trump said the US aims to acquire Greenland "whether they like it or not", claiming that if the US does not acquire the territory "Russia or China will take over Greenland". US, Danish and Greenlandic officials met in Washington on 14 January, but talks ultimately ended without agreement . "It's clear that the [US] president has this wish of conquering Greenland," Danish foreign minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen told reporters after the meeting. The meeting left both sides "with a fundamental disagreement" about Greenland's future, and "we didn't manage to change the American position", Rasmussen said. Trump's push for the US' acquisition of Greenland now involves tariff threats against countries opposing the move, saying, "I may put a tariff on countries if they don't go along with Greenland, because we need Greenland for national security", during remarks on Friday at an event dedicated to improving healthcare in US rural areas. Known resources and extraction challenges Greenland holds significant reserves of REEs and other "critical minerals", many of which serve essential — and sometimes non-substitutable — roles in various applications across many sectors, including defense, energy and automotive, among many others. The territory holds an estimated 36.1mn metric tonnes (t) of light and heavy rare earths, though only 1.5mn t of resources are proven, according to the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS) and the US Geological Survey (USGS), respectively. Greenland holds the eighth-largest proven REE resources in the world, according to the USGS, but, Greenland does not actively produce any rare earths. In addition to rare earths, Greenland is also home to a "high" resource potential of molybdenum, graphite, hafnium, niobium, platinum group metals, tantalum and titanium, among others, according to estimates from GEUS. The island holds significant reserves of uranium, though its government banned mining of that element in 2021. Despite the resource quantities, few companies participate in Greenland's mining industry as difficult geological and geographical factors, harsh weather and limited existing infrastructure imply high operational costs, according to GEUS. A few rare earths and "critical minerals" projects are in exploratory phases however, and have received significant interest in government funding to propel production. Current projects US-based Critical Metals owns the Tanbreez project in southern Greenland, which holds an estimated 27pc of global heavy rare earths, according to the company, but the project has yet to achieve commercial production. The company has signed several offtake agreements within the last year, including with REalloys , Ucore Rare Metals and Saudi firm Tariq Abdel Hadi Abdullah Al-Qahtani & Brothers Company. As of Thursday, all of the project's rare earths concentrate production is now slated for offtake under long-term contract agreements, according to Critical Metals. Critical Metals received a letter of interest for $120mn from the US Export-Import Bank for its Tanbreez rare earths project in June, covering studies, pre-production and initial mining. Canadian firm Greenland Resources' was granted a 30-year exploitation permit for molybdenum and magnesium for its Malmberg project in east Greenland in June, but has yet to start commercial production. The company has signed long-term supply agreements from the project with Finland-based stainless steel producer Outokumpu , German metal supplier Hempel Metallurgical and Italian specialty steel manufacturer Cogne Acciai Speciali within the last year. Greenland Resources also has significant funding interest from European government agencies. The European Union said in December it will help fund the molybdenum project , noting the project could quickly deliver on the EU's needs for molybdenum for the defense sector. The project also received support from the European Raw Materials Association in 2022. By Reagan Patrowicz Estimated Contained Resources in Greenland metric tonnes (t) Element Resource Estimates (2023) Antimony 3,780 Chromium 560,000 Copper 108,000 Gallium 152,000 Graphite 6,000,000 Hafnium 108,000 Lithium 235,000 Molybdenum 324,000 Niobium 5,900,000 Platinum Group Metals 576 Rare Earth Elements 36,100,000 Silicon 2,800,000 Tantalum 916,000 Titanium 12,100,000 Tungsten 26,200 Vanadium 179,000 Zirconium 57,100,000 List not indicative of all resources. Totals summed by GEUS from resource estimations of known individual deposits in Greenland. Source: Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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