• 2024年9月4日
  • Market: Agriculture
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26/03/16

European ethanol prices up on indirect war effects

European ethanol prices up on indirect war effects

London, 16 March (Argus) — European ethanol prices have risen by more than 10pc since the start of the US-Israel war with Iran, with a number of indirect effects pushing values to the highest in four months. Last week, prices for 75pc GHG savings crop-based ethanol rose to €754/m³, up by €72/m³ from 27 February, the day before the US and Israel attacked Iran, and the highest since 11 November. While the conflict has not directly affected ethanol supply, there has been consequential volatility and disruption through higher freight rates, limited arbitrage opportunities and increased production costs. The war looks likely to tighten supply in what was, already, a structurally short European ethanol market. Arbitrage economics for suppliers in North and South America to export to Europe have closed because of higher specialised freight rates and domestic prices. The EU is heavily reliant on ethanol flows from the Americas, with the bloc's largest suppliers of undenatured ethanol in the fourth quarter 2025 being Peru with 43,101t, Brazil with 26,747t, Canada with 21,819t, and the US with 18,822t. The Americas represented 71pc, or 133,275t, of all EU imports that quarter. Specialised freight has become more expensive since the war began beginning and it could be difficult to book vessels. The war has almost entirely halted ships from passing through the strait of Hormuz, which has mostly stopped shipments of diesel from the Mideast Gulf to Europe and prompted European buyers to turn to the US Gulf Coast for cargoes. Revenues from these have been high enough to keep most IMO2/3 'swing tonnage' tankers away from ethanol, biofuels, and petrochemicals cargoes, supporting specialised tanker rates. Tanker availability in the Americas was already very tight, and strong revenues in the regional products freight market and high numbers of Contracts of Affreightment have left even fewer available specialised tankers for biofuels. Charterers have faced high competition in the spot market which has sent specialised tanker rates surging. The higher price of bunker fuel has also pushed up shipowners' costs to move cargoes and further supported freight rates. Ethanol prices in the US and Brazil have also risen, which has disincentivised exports. US ethanol prices rose between 4-13 March in line with gains in oil products and agricultural futures. In-tank transfers at Kinder-Morgan's Argo terminal and for Chicago Rule 11 railcars rallied by more than 6pc, to €436.77/m³ (189.2¢/USG) and €427.19/m³ (185¢/USG) respectively, per Argus assessments. Barge values at New York Harbor rose by 5.5pc to €449.13/m³ (194.50¢/USG). Brazilian ethanol prices were already supported pre-war by reduced domestic supply, a result of the major producing centre-south region being in the December-March sugarcane off season, coinciding with historically low stocks. Brazil's domestic demand for ethanol could grow if state-controlled Petrobras adjusts domestic fuel prices higher then consumers will look to fill up their flex-fuel vehicles with more ethanol. Argus ' price for hydrous ethanol traded on an ex-mill basis in the state of Sao Paulo reached 3,805 reals/m³ (€632.80/m³or 280.1¢/USG) on 23 January, the highest since 24 January 2022. The price has since reversed some of the gains but it is still trading at levels last seen four years ago. EU ethanol production margins fell at the start of the conflict. Between 2-4 March, margins for corn fell by €94.49/m³ to €187.22/m³ and for wheat they fell by €95.49/m³ to €181.20/m³, according to Argus calculations that exclude variable costs of yeasts, enzymes, chemicals and denaturants. In 2025, the average production margin was €197.58/m³ for corn and €198.50/m³ for wheat. Market participants attributed the lower margins to higher prices for natural gas used in the production process. With the war closing off some global LNG supply, the natural gas has gone from 20pc of production costs to 30pc, according to Argus calculations. Prices for grains have also risen, with the EU's corn production down in recent seasons, and imports have become more expensive because of higher shipping costs. By Toby Shay, Leonard Fisher-Matthews, Maria Lígia Barros, Thompson Corpus, Aleksandra Godlewska and Anna Harouni Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US ag secretary seeking ways to curb fertilizer costs


26/03/13
News
26/03/13

US ag secretary seeking ways to curb fertilizer costs

Houston, 13 March (Argus) — US Secretary of Agriculture Brook Rollins said she is looking "at every potential avenue" to keep fertilizer costs down ahead of the spring season in response to surging nitrogen costs resulting from the war in the Middle East. "We are very close to having an announcement on some solutions," Rollins said. "Events around the world are impacting our farmers, but as the president has said: we expect that to resolve itself pretty quickly." Prices of nitrogen fertilizers such as urea, urea ammonium nitrate and ammonia have soared over the past two weeks following the outbreak of the war between the US-Israel and Iran. Urea prices at the New Orleans port have jumped nearly $155/st from pre-war levels. Prices continue to climb quickly, with first-half April barges rising from $585/st fob on 6 March to $645/st fob on Friday. Rollins added that most growers have already booked their fertilizer needs for this year and about 25pc have not. Nitrogen buying was pushed to later in the season as farmers and distributors weighed price uncertainty and weak corn margins, a delay that left some buyers exposed when prices climbed after the conflict. Rollins did not outline any specific policy measures under consideration but said she is working with lawmakers to secure additional funding for farmers. The USDA rolled out its latest farm-aid package in December 2025, with payments beginning to be issued at the end of February this year. The White House has demonstrated an ability to shift course on energy matters, recently floating options it had previously dismissed, including a potential crude export ban and a release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Even if the US-Iran conflict concludes, impacts to supply will likely linger through the rest of the fertilizer year, distributors have said. Traders Friday said they were also doubtful and left confused as to what US president Donald Trump's administration could do to bring down fertilizer prices. By Calder Jett and Sneha Kumar Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US picks 60 trade partners for tariff action


26/03/13
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26/03/13

US picks 60 trade partners for tariff action

Washington, 13 March (Argus) — President Donald Trump's administration has selected 60 of the US' largest trading partners to target with new import taxes that will replicate the tariffs invalidated by the Supreme Court last month. The US Trade Representative's office (USTR) late on Thursday announced an investigation into 59 countries and the EU, alleging that these jurisdictions have not been diligent in banning imports of products produced by forced labor in third countries. "Despite the international consensus against forced labor, governments have failed to impose and effectively enforce measures banning goods produced with forced labor from entering their markets," USTR chief Jamieson Greer said. USTR is citing its legal authority under Section 301 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1974, which allows targeting a foreign trade partner for unfair practices. USTR already has launched a separate investigation into 12 of those 60 foreign jurisdictions. Collectively, all major US trading partners would be liable for high tariffs once the USTR completes these investigations in May. The list includes Canada, Mexico, Brazil, the EU, Norway, Japan, South Korea, Indonesia and Malaysia. All those jurisdictions have been subject to emergency tariffs of 15pc and higher since last April. The US Supreme Court struck down those tariffs on 20 February. The US administration on the same day, citing separate authority under Section 122, imposed a 10pc tariff on all US imports. But those tariffs will only be in effect until 24 July. USTR is aiming to have the new Section 301 tariffs in place by that deadline. The Section 301 process does not affect existing tariffs on steel, aluminum, cars and auto parts. Trump and previous presidents routinely used Section 301 authority to address specific trade complaints, so the legal authority has not been challenged in court before. But a mass trade action simultaneously targeting dozens of countries in an effort to reverse-engineer invalidated tariffs may invite legal challenges. "It won't surprise anyone that once again Trump is refusing to accept the reality of his loss and is desperately back at the drawing board trying to find any pretext he can to reclaim power the Supreme Court rightfully said he doesn't have," House of Representatives Ways and Means Committee ranking member Richard Neal (D-Massachusetts) said on Thursday. On Friday, a coalition of dozens of states, including Oregon, asked a federal court to suspend collection of the Section 122 tariffs while a lawsuit against those temporary tariffs proceeds. Those states point to lengthy delays in obtaining refunds to the tariffs the Supreme Court struck down. "It is likely impossible for plaintiff states to be made fully whole for the economic harm suffered each day that the unlawful Section 122 tariffs are in place," the states wrote in their legal filing. By Haik Gugarats and Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Argentina's inflation accelerates in Feb


26/03/12
News
26/03/12

Argentina's inflation accelerates in Feb

Montevideo, 12 March (Argus) — Argentina's inflation increased to an annual rate of 33.1pc in February, intensifying pressure on the government to meet its targets. The consumer price index (CPI) quickened from 32.4pc in January, according to the statistics agency, Indec. Inflation has been accelerating since falling to an annual 31.3pc in October, a cyclical low. While annualized inflation in February was well off the 66.9pc reached in February 2025, the trend makes it increasingly unlikely President Javier Milei's administration will hit its 10.1pc target set in the 2026 budget. It could also complicate commitments to the IMF to keep inflation in check as part of the administration's sweeping structural adjustment program. Education led the annual increase in prices, rising by 50.7pc in February. Housing followed, at 44.3pc, while inflation at restaurants and hotels rose by 41.6pc and transport costs were up by 33.1pc in February from a year earlier. On a monthly basis, CPI rose by 2.9pc in February, following a 2.9pc gain in January and a 2.8pc monthly gain in December. It has been rising from a cyclical low of 1.5pc in May last year. By Lucien Chauvin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Cargill halts Brazil-China soy flows, market slumps


26/03/12
News
26/03/12

Cargill halts Brazil-China soy flows, market slumps

Sao Paulo, 12 March (Argus) — US agribusiness company Cargill has reportedly suspended Brazilian soybean purchases and shipments to China as of 6 March, in response to stricter phytosanitary inspections on cargoes implemented by Brazil's government. The decision only became public after comments from Cargill's president of Brazilian operations, Paulo Sousa, during the Argentina Week 2026 event on 11 March. He claimed the decision is a reaction to the new method of collecting samples of cargo set for shipment. Brazil's ministry of agriculture MAPA now conducts its own sampling, instead of relying on trading companies. That is rumored to follow complaints from Chinese buyers after receiving multiple cargoes with higher levels of damaged grains and noting a significant presence of weeds in shipments, according to market participants. Cargill has suspended purchases of soybeans from Brazilian farmers and redirected vessels that were previously bound for China to other destinations, market sources said, adding that Cargill may not be the only company adopting such measures, though they provided no further details. Cargill did not immediately respond to Argus' requests for comment and referred inquiries to Brazil's vegetable oil and grain export associations Abiove and Anec, respectively. The associations are following these developments with concern, while also "acting collaboratively and maintaining conversations with authorities and members of the production chain to search for solutions that will ensure trade flows", they said in a joint statement on 12 March. MAPA has yet to issue an official comment. Meanwhile, Brazil's soybean export market reacted sharply to the news. Bids in the Paranagua paper market and Santos cargo market were scarce throughout the day, despite international prices rising on gains from CBOT futures and the appreciation of the US dollar against the Brazilian real. These conditions already exert downward pressure on Brazil's port differentials, which was further intensified by Cargill's move. Market participants also expressed concern that the suspension could reduce total export volumes to China by "a few million metric tonnes". They noted that competition to place Brazilian soybeans in alternative destinations is expected to increase, though Europe's anti-deforestation policies and the ongoing Iran war may pose significant obstacles. Other market participants say that the suspension may be short lived, seeing it more as a strategy to pressure the Brazilian government into dropping the stricter inspections. Some sources also suggested that Chinese importers may have encouraged the move to push Brazilian prices lower, while others described it as a convenient justification for the slowdown in purchases from farmers. Negotiations have already been hindered by concerns over rising domestic transportation costs, driven by higher fuel prices linked to the Iran war. By Nathalia Giannetti Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.