Agricultural commodity market analysis & forecast
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Fertilizer Matters EP54: War & Fertilizer Demand Destruction
Analysing why fertilizer demand destruction is happening, focusing on US, Brazil & Europe, crop margins, farmer application, food inflation, government reaction
French farmers aim to cut nitrogen needs in 2026, 2027
Impact of the Iran War on global commodity markets - part 2
Second edition - A brief analysis of the Iran war’s market impacts, outlining disruption levels and the commodities most exposed to shifting global conditions.
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US soybean crush margins slip below $3/bu
US soybean crush margins slip below $3/bu
St Louis, 1 July (Argus) — Soybean crushing margins on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) slipped below $3/bushel (bu) on Tuesday for the first time in nearly three months, falling by 31pc from a record high in early June. Across July-delivered CBOT soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil contracts crushing margins fell to $2.88/bu as of 30 June, the lowest for front month margins on CBOT since 9 April and down from a record $4.18/bu on 3 June. Margins have come under pressure from lower soybean meal values, which have fallen by 5pc since 3 June to settle to $304.70/short ton (st) as of 30 June. But most of the downward pressure has come from falling soybean oil values, which have fallen by 16pc to $0.67/lb from a 1 June peak of $0.79/lb. Soybean futures have fallen as well, down by 3.2pc from the 3 June crushing margins peak to $11.17/bu as of Tuesday's settlement. But the weight of falling soybean oil values was more than enough to pull crushing margins lower. Short-term struggle Soybean crushing margins have fallen in recent weeks as soybean oil prices followed crude oil lower , while imports of other feedstocks have added supply pressure. The US and Iran have continued to work towards resolving their conflict and restoring global crude oil flows — despite some setbacks — with global crude oil prices trending lower as a result. Rebounding imports of tallow and used cooking oil since the start of 2026 have also weighed on demand for domestic feedstocks. Favorable import economics kept the feedstock arbitrage widely open through the first half of the year, prompting renewable diesel producers, particularly in coastal markets, to secure large volumes of waste-based feedstocks. Domestic feedstock prices initially continued to rise, as imported cargoes typically take several months to reach US ports. Those volumes are now beginning to arrive, increasing feedstock availability and creating congestion in some key demand centers, while storage tanks are filling. The outlook for imports during the remainder of the year may hinge on trade policy. President Donald Trump is expected to finalize new tariff measures in late July, when the temporary 10pc global tariff framework expires, a decision that could significantly influence feedstock import flows for the balance of 2026. A comeback in the making? While soybean crush margins face several near-term headwinds, how much lower they can fall remains a question. US demand for soybean oil is still expected to grow throughout this year as biofuel producers work to fulfill expanded US renewable fuel blending obligations and capitalize on a recently adjusted 45Z biofuel producers tax credit that heavily favors the use of domestic biofuel feedstocks. US soybean oil consumption for biofuel production reached a record 1.28bn lbs in March, up 54pc from a year earlier, underscoring strong demand from the sector. The US has set biomass-based diesel mandates for 2026 at 5.53bn USG, including volumes reallocated from small refinery exemptions, raising the overall requirement by 65pc from 2025 levels. Domestic renewable diesel plants are operating at near-maximum capacity to meet the higher mandates, as reflected in stronger generation of biomass-based diesel (D4) Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) in May, according to the US Environmental Protection Agency. D4 RIN generation totaled 736mn credits in May, up 22pc from the same month a year earlier. Soybean prices could also struggle in the months ahead. The US Department of Agriculture this week revised up its US soybean planted area estimate for 2026, and the outlook for this year's soybean yields remains positive . Export demand for the 2026-27 marketing year has started to build , but with a limited outlook following the US and China trade agreement in October of last year it is not clear that foreign demand will add sufficient support to push crushing margins lower should increased soybean oil demand begin to lift crushing margins again. If soybean crushing margins come under additional pressure, they would still have ample room to move lower before it would curtail the record crushing rates seen in the US during recent months. From 2021 through 2025 US soybean crush margins averaged $1.51/bu, leaving plenty of room for lower returns to drive crushing volumes. By Ryan Koory and Jamuna Gautam Chicago Board of Trade soybean crush margins $/bu Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Trump, USDA finalize regenerative feedstock rule
Trump, USDA finalize regenerative feedstock rule
Houston, 29 June (Argus) — US president Donald Trump on 25 June signed an executive order mobilizing federal agencies to support farmers in utilizing regenerative farming practices through significant investment, a reduction in red tape, and finalized regenerative feedstock rule standards. US Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins concurrently announced the US Department of Agriculture's (USDA) final regenerative feedstock rule , intended to "help farmers voluntarily capture new value from regenerative agricultural practices through biofuel markets." Rather than mandating regenerative agricultural practices, farmers who voluntarily decide to utilize them will have the opportunity to "earn premium prices, lower their input costs, improve soil health, and strengthen the long-term profitability of their operations." The final regenerative feedstock rule has set five high-level parameters connecting these practices to the corn, soybean, sorghum, and spring canola markets for biofuels production. The standards pertain to which crops and entities are qualified, how climate benefits are quantified, how regenerative grain will be tracked through the supply chain, which specific practices qualify as regenerative, and who will verify program requirements. The USDA formally published its technical guidelines for the production of regenerative agricultural biofuel feedstocks on 29 June, effective immediately. The department intends to expand premium market opportunities as participation increases. The exact financial benefit of prioritizing regeneratively-produced feedstocks on a biofuel producer's claim to the "45Z" clean fuel production tax credit remains unclear until the Department of Energy incorporates the new standards into its model for tracking greenhouse gas emissions. The USDA also released its updated feedstock carbon intensity calculator (FD-CIC) to assist farmers in quantifying their employed regenerative practices when marketing their biofuels feedstocks to eligible producers. The department added that 68pc of corn farmers and 70pc of soybean farmers have already implemented at least one form of regenerative agriculture, defined as "a conservation management approach that emphasizes natural resources through improved soil health, water management, and natural vitality for the productivity and prosperity of American agriculture and communities." Trump's ‘Advancing Regenerative Agriculture and Strengthening American Farm Resilience' executive order also encourages Rollins and the USDA to maximize the $700mn in funding dedicated to the regenerative pilot program in December 2025 and develop new public-private partnerships that "bring new capacity to producers interested in adopting regenerative practices." By Thompson Corpus Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Cool, wet weather delays Canada’s canola development
Cool, wet weather delays Canada’s canola development
London, 29 June (Argus) — Canada's new-crop canola development has slowed because of rainy and cool weather in most growing provinces, while unfavourable conditions have hampered spraying operations, according to the latest local crop reports. Oilseed development in Saskatchewan, the country's largest canola-producing province, was the most delayed among crops. About 45pc of oilseeds remained behind normal growth stages, with only 1pc ahead and 54pc reported at normal stage, as of 22 June. Crop planting in the province was nearly complete at 99pc by 22 June. Some acreages went unseeded this season because of excessive moisture, and some planted areas were flooded and are unlikely to produce a crop, the provincial report says. Heavy rain during the third week of June had mixed impacts across Saskatchewan, with fields becoming saturated in parts of the province, while areas short of moisture benefited. Topsoil moisture in cropping regions rated adequate rose to 77pc from 74pc a week earlier, while only 3pc was short compared with 11pc in the previous week. But surplus moisture increased to 20pc from 15pc. Excess moisture caused some crop damage across much of the province. In Alberta, 63pc of the canola crop was in good-to-excellent condition as of 23 June, up by 3 percentage points on the week and above 58pc at this time last year. Soil moisture was mostly rated good to excellent, but the share of areas with excess moisture rose to 13pc in the week to 23 June from 8pc a week earlier. Soil moisture levels were above historical averages. Cool and wet weather also slowed crop development and caused yellowing in many regions of the province. Canola will need higher temperatures to catch up in development, the report says. Large areas of standing water and localised flooding were reported in the northwest, leading to moisture stress. Manitoba reported quick canola development in the week to 23 June, but progress was uneven across regions. Crops were generally at the 3-5 leaf stage, with the earliest fields nearing the 6-leaf stage. But canola planting in the northwest, where sowing faced delays, was still only 85pc complete, although this was 10 percentage points higher on the week. In the southwest, canola was starting to rosette, and flea beetles had already caused some crop damage, the report says. Looking ahead, higher temperatures are forecast for all growing regions from early July and could support canola development. But continued rain expected in the coming days could strain crops already facing water stress in parts of the provinces. By Nataliia Haisonok Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Mexico central bank holds rates at 4-year low
Mexico central bank holds rates at 4-year low
Mexico City, 26 June (Argus) — Mexico's central bank (Banxico) on Thursday held its target interest rate at 6.5pc, its lowest level in more than four years, and signaled support for keeping rates unchanged through its outlook horizon as inflation slows. The unanimous decision to hold rates unchanged was the first since Banxico cut rates to 6.5pc on 7 May. The bank reduced the benchmark rate 450 basis points over 18 half- and quarter- point rate cuts made from a cyclical high of 11.25pc in March 2024. "The document confirmed the neutral stance by the central bank," said Mexican bank Banorte, as such, the bank affirmed its "call that the reference rate will remain unchanged at 6.50pc in the remainder of 2026 and throughout 2027." T he central bank made minimal changes to its statement, retaining forward guidance that underscores a neutral policy stance. "Looking ahead, the governing board believes it will be appropriate to maintain the reference rate at its current level," bank governors said. Banxico noted that headline inflation slowed to 3.55pc in mid-June from 4.45pc in April, with both core and non-core inflation easing. Banxico kept its forecast for both headline and core inflation to converge to its 3pc target in the second quarter of 2027. Banxico also toned down its discussion of risks from the US-Iran conflict, saying "recent negotiations suggest a solution is underway." The bank made only minor revisions to its inflation forecasts, lifting its headline estimate for the current quarter to 4.1pc from 4pc and making small upward adjustments to core inflation forecasts for the final three quarters of 2026. The board said inflation risks remain skewed to the upside. Mexican bank Banorte noted "a slight rearrangement" of those risks, highlighting the greater weight given to climate-related impacts, consistent with the formation of El Nino. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.