Agricultural commodity market analysis & forecast
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<p>Argus crop tours 2026: Black Sea and France wheat production</p>
Romania nears a record wheat crop, Ukraine rebounds, and France faces heat stress — shifting EU supply and price dynamics for 2026–27
French farmers aim to cut nitrogen for 2026, 2027
French farmers cut nitrogen use and switch crops as high fertiliser prices reshape nitrogen demand patterns for 2026 and 2027 harvest needs (10 mins)
Fertilizer Matters EP54: War & Fertilizer Demand Destruction
Analysing why fertilizer demand destruction is happening, focusing on US, Brazil & Europe, crop margins, farmer application, food inflation, government reaction
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Ukraine POC ports open but grain trade curtailed
Ukraine POC ports open but grain trade curtailed
Kyiv, 16 July (Argus) — Ukrainian grain terminals are operating at reduced capacity after recent strikes on commercial vessels and port infrastructure , as the market confronts higher security risks and logistical bottlenecks. Vessels chartered before the escalation are still arriving and loading at the ports of Pivdennyi, Odesa and Chornomorsk (POC), but market participants said booking new tonnage has become extremely difficult. Many shipowners are either demanding high freight rates to cover war-risk premiums or refusing to enter the region entirely. This has created a logistical "trap" as port silos approach full capacity, making further grain intake dependent on vessels clearing storage space. The market is split in its response to the volatility. Some traders have adopted a wait-and-see approach, halting spot operations until the security situation becomes clearer. Others continue to buy grain in the domestic market for delivery to ports, but are applying strict volume limits and bidding at steep discounts to prices before the escalation, citing the need to offset soaring insurance costs. Exporters are also increasingly assessing the feasibility of alternative logistics to maintain continuity. Companies with assets on the Danube river are evaluating these routes to bypass deep-water constraints, with procurement prices being adjusted lower to reflect the potentially higher costs and risks of alternative channels. While POC ports remain operational, the combination of saturated storage and a thin vessel lineup is expected to keep spot market liquidity low in the near term. By Alexey Yeromin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Argentina inflation quickens in June
Argentina inflation quickens in June
Montevideo, 15 July (Argus) — Argentina's inflation accelerated to an annual 33.5pc in June, the highest so far this year. The consumer price index (CPI) rose from 33.2pc in May and 32.4pc in April, which matched January's number, the statistics agency Indec reported. The latest figure was down from 39.4pc in June 2025. Prices in the food/beverages category, which accounted for nearly one-quarter of the overall annual headline gain, were up an annual 34.4pc in June, compared with 33.4pc in May. Prices in transportation, with the second largest weighting on the overall gain, continued to be influenced by the conflict in the Mideast Gulf and were up 42.1pc in June, similar to the previous month. Prices in the hospitality sector increased 36.7pc through June, down from 37.3pc the previous month, while housing/utilities costs were at 47.8pc, down a notch from 48pc in May. On a monthly basis, CPI rose by 1.9pc in June, down from 2.1pc in May and 2.6pc in April. It peaked at 3.4pc in March for the year. President Javier Milei's government forecast inflation at 10pc for the year, a target it is unlikely to meet. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts inflation at 30.4pc this year. Argentina, the IMF's largest creditor with a debt of $42.5bn, more than one-third the IMF's total outstanding loans of $122.8bn. By Lucien Chauvin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Brazil corn: Export market remains adrift
Brazil corn: Export market remains adrift
Sao Paulo, 13 July (Argus) — Port differentials in Brazil's corn export market continue to lack a single trend, with market participants largely uninterested in the grain. Brazil's corn export market is struggling with a wide offer-bid gap. Buyers expect prices to fall further as harvesting of the 2025-26 winter corn crop advances amid expectations for ample production. They prioritize purchases of the cheaper Argentinian grain in the meantime. But sellers say that prices should move in the opposite direction, with a record demand forecast for the current 2025-26 season sustaining them at firm levels. The export market would have to raise bids to compete with the domestic sector, which is on track to consume all-time high volumes of corn thanks to the growing corn ethanol industry. Sellers are also unwilling to cap offers much further to attract international buyers. Farmers acquired the grain at higher levels, while high transportation and operational costs tighten margins. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Ukraine grain yields remain high as harvest accelerates
Ukraine grain yields remain high as harvest accelerates
Kyiv, 13 July (Argus) — Ukrainian farmers have accelerated the 2026-27 winter grain harvest, with barley yields reaching record highs and wheat yields remaining significantly above historical averages. Farmers had harvested 318,650 hectares (ha) of barley, or 22pc of the 1.48mn ha forecast area, as of 13 July, according to data from the economy ministry. Barley output has reached 1.4mn t at an an average yield of 4.41 t/ha, a record at this stage of the campaign, beating the previous peak of 4.29 t/ha in 2021 and well above the 3.3-3.5 t/ha registered in 2023-25. Market participants said rapid progress and high yields are likely to increase immediate physical availability on the domestic market. The wheat harvest has reached 157,350ha, or 3pc of the 5.13mn ha forecast total, producing 615,740t at an average yield of 3.91 t/ha. The wheat yields are the second highest on record for this stage of harvesting, remaining well above the 2022-25 range and surpassed only by a bumper crop in 2021. These early results support the Argus production forecast of 24.1mn t for the 2026-27 season, although high yields continue to raise concerns about potential protein dilution in the winter wheat crop. The rapeseed harvest has reached 76,970ha, or 6pc of the 1.32mn ha forecast area, with 149,070t collected at an average yield of 1.94 t/ha. The current yields are among the lowest for this stage of the campaign in five years, trailing the 2.20-2.30 t/ha recorded in 2021 and 2024. But these figures are not yet representative of the final outcome, given the limited progress of the harvest. A wave of warm and dry weather is expected in most regions this week, according to the Ukrainian weather centre. Daytime temperatures in southern and eastern regions are forecast to reach 32-35°C, while central and western areas will see daily highs of 26-30°C. Dry conditions will help the rapid progress of the winter grain harvest across all regions, although the lack of significant rainfall may reduce soil moisture for spring crops such as corn and sunflowers, which are at critical stages of development. Market participants said official figures continue to reflect a reporting lag, with real-time field progress estimated to be further ahead. By Alexey Yeromin Ukraine barley yields for same harvested area t/ha/ ha Ukraine wheat yields for same harvested area t/ha/ ha Ukraine rapeseed yields for same harvested area t/ha/ ha Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.