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Organic Markets Outlook: Supply, Demand and Trade
Fill out the form to watch analysis of organic corn, soybean and soybean meal markets, including pricing, imports and 2026-27 outlooks.
Global wheat export trade flows: 2025-26
Download our updated wheat trade flow map to get a snapshot of the 2025-26 marketing campaign exports from the main wheat producers
How agriculture enables renewable fuel scalability
Explore how agricultural feedstocks, soybean oil and crushing capacity are supporting renewable diesel and SAF growth across the US.
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Bolsonaro to challenge Brazil election results
Bolsonaro to challenge Brazil election results
Sao Paulo, 26 October (Argus) — Brazilian senator Flavio Bolsonaro said it will be "impossible" to accept the results of his Sunday loss to incumbent president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, and that he would seek to have the election annulled. Lula beat Bolsonaro in the runoff on 25 October with nearly 51.8pc of votes. The supreme electoral court (TSE) extended voting by two hours following requests by both Lula and Bolsonaro's parties. Bolsonaro later called that decision "unacceptable" and said that he would seek the election's annulment. Most Latin American leaders have congratulated Lula on his victory. The exception is Argentina's Javier Milei. US president Donald Trump has also yet to acknowledge Brazil's electoral results. Showing up Lula's win came on the back of historic voter turnout in Brazil. During the first round on 4 October — which Bolsonaro led with 47pc of votes' against Lula's 45.16pc — over 33mn Brazilians, or nearly 21.1pc of voters, did not vote. That figure fell to 30.5mn in the second round — or 19.2pc of voters — the lowest in 20 years. By Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Lula completes comeback, wins Brazil elections
Lula completes comeback, wins Brazil elections
Sao Paulo, 25 October (Argus) — Incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will serve as Brazil's president for another four-year term, after beating senator Flavio Bolsonaro in the presidential runoff. With nearly 100pc of votes counted, Lula led Bolsonaro with over 51.77pc of votes. Lula becomes the first in Brazil's history to win a presidential election after trailing in the first round of voting. He received 45.16pc of votes on 4 October, trailing Bolsonaro's 47pc. This will be Lula's fourth stint as Brazil's president. He first served two terms in 2003-2011. Lula's campaign focused on social media following his first-round defeat. Street demonstrations, especially in Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro — Brazil's most populous cities — may have also given him a boost. The final televised debate, held on 23 October, may have also helped him swing votes. Fact-checking agencies showed him saying more truthful statements than Bolsonaro, which may have weakened his adversary's campaign. The second round of voting saw fewer absentee voters as well. Around 21pc of voters abstained in the first round, versus around 19pc in the second round. Around 3mn people additional people showed up to vote compared with the first round, and Lula obtained 10mn votes more than in the first round. Voting delays Voting booths stayed open two hours later than usual after both Lula and Bolsonaro's parties requested an extension. Lula's party claimed that problems in public transport denied voters the chance to vote. The federal police arrested Pablo Souza, the mobility secretary of Salvador — the capital of Bahia state, historically a left-leaning state — for reducing the amount of buses available on Sunday. Bolsonaro's party requested the extension in voting hours because of rains in Minas Gerais and Rio Grande do Sul states. Flavio Bolsonaro's brother, Eduardo Bolsonaro — a former congressman who has been in the US since March 2025 and was convicted by the supreme court of coercion with the US to interfere in his father's trial — said before the elections that the candidate Bolsonaro would also head to the US if defeated in the elections. It is still unclear whether Flavio Bolsonaro will remain in Brazil or not. The candidate had yet to concede defeat as of 8:30pm ET. Backing Petrobras During his 2023-2026 term, Lula put state-controlled Petrobras at the center of his energy policy, seeking to broaden the firm's scope. He ended the company's import price parity principle — in a bid to control fuel prices — and his predecessor's policy of selling assets. He returned Petrobras to markets such as fertilizer production . He also spoke in favor of increasing oil and gas production, while also seeking to put it in the center of Brazil's energy transition. Deforestation also fell during his term , after Lula reversed policies of his predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro — Flavio's father, who is serving a 27-year sentence for attempting to overturn the result of the 2022 election. Bolsonaro would have likely sought to win amnesty for his father, but that is unlikely to take place now that Lula will remain as president. Lula will also be responsible for picking four or five supreme court judges in the next four years. One seat is vacant, three others will retire by 2030 and judge Alexandre de Moraes could face impeachment pressure from the right-leaning congress. Some of Lula's main campaign promises dealt with the economy, including maintaining the current fiscal framework while preserving room for public investment, expanding infrastructure spending, advancing the government's industrial policy and mobilizing investment for transitions to cleaner energy. Adversaries heavily criticized his fiscal framework, as Brazil's debt — including the federal, state and municipal governments — reached R11.1 trillion ($2.2 trillion) in August, up from R7.2 trillion at the end of 2022. Lula also promises to continue increasing the minimum wage, expand credit access for small- and medium-sized businesses, strengthen protections for app-based gig workers and pursue a more progressive tax system in which higher-income individuals contribute a larger share of taxes. But the heavily right-wing congress will probably be a hurdle for Lula to enact many of those promises. Lula's win puts Brazil as one of the sole countries in Latin America with a left-wing federal government, after Argentina, Peru, Chile, Colombia and others have elected right-wing presidents recently. Lula's relationship with the US and President Donald Trump were rocky at times , especially because of the tariffs imposed by the US president. Lula has been especially stern with the US' interest in Brazil's critical minerals. By Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
45Z complexity risk diluting US farmer benefits
45Z complexity risk diluting US farmer benefits
St Louis, 23 October (Argus) — The 45Z tax credit system for US biofuel feedstocks could struggle to return value to US farmers — with complex systems and long value-chains leaving a wide gap between producers and end-users — an outcome that could hinder bringing the program to scale. Originally intended to promote the usage of low-carbon feedstocks for biofuel production, the re-worked 45Z tax credit has widely been viewed by US agricultural groups as a tool to "create opportunities for farmers" said David Kubik, Biofuels and Trade Policy Manager with the Illinois Soybean Board. But complexities within the system — including the verification processes or how the US Department of Agriculture rates climate-smart agricultural practices — have introduced hurdles that US farmers have yet to work out. Setting expectations The potential for the 45Z tax credit to bid value back to crop producers has limitations shaped by feedstock type, supply chains, and geography. Understanding the "incremental value" generated by carbon-intensity (CI) reducing agricultural practices is key, according to Matt Herman, chief officer of Demand and Advocacy with the Iowa Soybean Association. "That's what the farmer and the value chain are going to be negotiating over." The tax credit — which increases incrementally with the CI reduction of the feedstock — caps out at $1/USG of biofuel production. For producers of renewable diesel and biodiesel, $0.60/USG is guaranteed if soybean oil is the feedstock. That leaves a potential of up to $0.40/USG of tax credit to be bid into incentivizing agricultural practices for US soybean producers. A credit that will also pass through the hands of soybean crushers — with soybean oil accounting for less than 20pc of a crushed soybean — before it can be factored into a farmer's profitability. For corn producers the advantage seems to be greater as the entire $1/USG credit for ethanol is aligned with the CI reduction of the feedstock. Regardless of the cap, the value returned to farmers will be further shaped by the accounting and compliance costs borne by the biofuel producers — the recipients of the credit — as well as any other part of the supply chain involved in moving the crop from the field to the end user. For farmers located away from biofuel end users, each additional supply chain link adds another layer of cost "taking away some of that potential farmer value", according to Adam Kiel, executive vice president with the Iowa Soybean Association. Rewarding the risk Time also creates a barrier between the potential value of 45Z for biofuel producers and the farmers who produce the crops. It could take "years from the time a farmer makes that decision to the time the credit value is returned back to the fuel producer even, let alone the farmer", said Keil. And farmers who adopt CI reducing agricultural practices incur those costs up front "probably a year before they harvest that crop," said Kiel. "Somebody's got to carry that cost", according to Herman. "There's a lot of opportunity here, but I think that there's a lot of area to improve". "I look at it as a subsidy for farmers who are already doing it" said Kubik. Those who have already adopted practices consistent with the CI reduction incentive will be the early beneficiaries. To balance or to book A possible solution to the barriers in returning value back to farmers would be to modify the method used to account for the CI reduction. Under the current regulation the CI reduction is accounted for and reported by the biofuel producer using a "Mass Balance" approach. Under mass balance accounting, documentation of the feedstock's production method follows it up the supply chain to the biofuel producer who uses it to prove the CI reduction of the feedstock and collect the tax credit. The alternative "Book and Claim" approach has the potential to simplify this. The proof of CI reduction would become decoupled from the feedstock as it enters the supply chain, and become a distinct product that biofuel producers can purchase to claim the tax credit. "Book and Claim is the preferred approach as it would allow more farmers to participate", said Sean Arians, Vice President with the National Corn Grows Association. But to adopt it would require multiple US agencies to agree that book and claim is an eligible accounting method, according to Arians. And additional safeguards and monitoring would have to be developed to ensure that the same bushel of feedstock is not sold multiple times to generate additional credits. And the book and claim approach could open the door to more farmers claiming the credit without modifying farming practices, particularly from producers who live in areas where CI reduction eligible practices, such as no-till, are a necessary part of agriculture production. But with time farm groups remain adamant that the 45Z system will benefit US producers. "The key for corn growers is to see a portion of 45Z make its way back to the farm, said Arians. "The ultimate goal of 45Z is to is to create opportunities for farmers", Kubik said. "And I do believe that farmers will be able to capitalize on those opportunities at the right time. It's just, kind of, working through the quirks." By Ryan Koory and Joseph Crosby Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Crops could help fill biofuel feedstock gap
Crops could help fill biofuel feedstock gap
London, 23 October (Argus) — Crop-based feedstocks will remain necessary to meet growing renewable fuel demand in the EU in the coming years, industry participants said at the Argus Biofuels Conference this week. This is because supplies of advanced feedstocks are unlikely to keep pace with expanding biofuel mandates. Global supply of waste-based oil could fall short of demand for advanced feedstocks by as much as 8mn t by 2030, according to Argus Analytics estimations, with tightness expected to emerge from 2027 and intensify from 2028. Waste based and advanced feedstocks remain central to European decarbonisation policies — with Annex IX Part A feedstocks' use uncapped under the latest EU Renewable Energy Directive (RED III) — but potential for supply growth is limited, and even increased investment in waste oil collection and pretreatment technologies is unlikely to close the gap, delegates heard. At the same time, renewable fuels of non-biological origin are commercially challenging and far from being deployed at scale, while greater adoption of electric vehicles could reduce pressure on biofuel feedstock demand, but progress remains constrained by infrastructure development and regulatory challenges. Meanwhile, first-generation crop-based feedstocks are among the scalable and cost-competitive options for meeting renewables targets in the coming years, while supplies of waste and advanced Annex IX Part A feedstocks remain constrained, panellists said. Current EU legislative framework diverges between member states, with RED III capping a country's crop-based fuel use at the lower threshold of one percentage point above its 2020 share or a 7pc ceiling. Looking ahead, crop-based fuels could gain some ground post-2030, as the European Commission's RED IV leaked impact assessment proposes a shift to a maximum 7pc cap across the board — a move that could increase food and feed crop-based biofuel quantities by 30pc, according to commission estimates. Increased uptake of higher greenhouse gas-saving (GHG) crops could also help to ease the feedstock gap out to 2030, particularly for member states that mandate biofuel use on a GHG reduction, rather than energetic basis. Intermediate crops also have significant production potential — cover crops planted on just 5pc of European arable land could theoretically produce nearly enough sustainable aviation fuel to meet EU aviation biofuel targets by 2030, BP's vice-president of regulatory affairs bioenergy Eirik Pitkethly told delegates this week. By Nataliia Haisonok Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.