• 4 September 2024
  • Market: Agriculture
Learn more about this week's key drivers for wheat, corn, barley, soybeans, sunflower, rapeseed, and more

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09/01/26

Brazil inflation slows to 4.26pc in Dec

Brazil inflation slows to 4.26pc in Dec

Sao Paulo, 9 January (Argus) — Brazil's headline inflation decelerated to an annual 4.26pc in December, mainly driven by power tariffs within housing costs. The consumer price index IPCA eased from 4.46pc in November, national statistics agency IBGE said Friday, after decelerating from 4.68pc in October. The annual figure was down from 4.83pc in December 2024 and marked the lowest year-end reading since 3.75pc in December 2018. The result came in below the 4.5pc forecast by the national monetary council CNM. Housing costs, personal expenses, education and healthcare were among the largest contributors to IPCA in December, accounting for 64pc of the annual result, IBGE said. Food and beverage costs, which weigh heavily on the index, decelerated to an annual 2.95pc in 2025 from 7.69pc a year prior. Food expenses at home decelerated to 1.43pc to end 2025 from 8.23pc in December 2024, driven mainly by lower rice and milk costs in the period. Housing costs accelerated to an annual 6.79pc in December 2025 from 3.06pc in December 2024, driven by recurring power tariffs from May-December. Power costs accelerated to 12.31pc in December after up to 21.95pc of tariff readjustments throughout the year. As for services, the index accelerated to 6.01pc in December 2025 from 4.78pc a year earlier. Brazil's central bank has kept its target interest rate stable at 15pc since June 2025. The central bank has said it plans to keep the rate steady to counter inflation. By João Curi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Australia’s barley exports start 2025-26 on a high


09/01/26
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09/01/26

Australia’s barley exports start 2025-26 on a high

Sydney, 9 January (Argus) — Australia's barley exports started the 2025-26 (November-October) marketing year on a record high, while canola exports also recovered on new crop supply, according to the Australia Bureau of Statistics data. Barley Barley exports reached 913,000t in November 2025 — the largest volume for the month of November, according to ABS records dating back two decades. Shipments to China represented 70pc of exports. Exports to the Middle East accounted over 20pc of shipments, including 117,000t to Saudi Arabia and 41,000t to Kuwait and the UAE. Canola Total exports recovered to 629,000t in November from 64,000t the month prior due to an uplift in supply from newly harvested canola crops. Around 189,000t was shipped to the UAE — the highest volume on record dating back to 2005. Stronger exports were likely driven by the tariff exemption on Australian canola imports after a free trade agreement came into effect on 1 October 2025. Wheat Wheat exports approached 1.1mn t in November, around the average for the previous five years. But unseasonably strong exports in October pushed up total exports for the 2025-26 (October-September) marketing year so far by 66pc from the same point last year. But it is still early in the export campaign. Shipments to one of Australia's main export destinations for wheat, Indonesia, slumped to 89,000t — the lowest monthly total since October 2020. November shipments are typically low ahead Australia's new crop supply from December, one trader said. The drop reflected buyers switching to cheaper origins elsewhere, another trader added. By Edward Dunlop Australian wheat, barley and canola exports '000t Nov 25 Oct 25 MY-Nov 25 MY-Nov 24 Wheat Philippines 153 381 534 341 Yemen 106 161 266 50 Indonesia 89 315 404 369 Total 1,091 1,748 2,839 1,713 Barley China 647 79 647 746 Saudi Arabia 117 0 117 0 Kuwait 41 0 41 0 Total 913 175 913 834 Canola United Arab Emirates 189 0 189 54 Germany 106 0 106 310 Japan 77 57 77 8 Total 629 64 629 709 MY for wheat is Oct-Sep, barley and canola is Nov-Oct. — ABS Australian wheat exports ('000t) Australian barley exports ('000t) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Mexico inflation slows to 3.7pc in Dec


08/01/26
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08/01/26

Mexico inflation slows to 3.7pc in Dec

Mexico City, 8 January (Argus) — Mexico's inflation decelerated to an annual 3.69pc in December, the lowest reading for the month since 2020, mainly driven by slowing agriculture and energy prices, alongside some easing in core inflation. The consumer price index (CPI) eased from 3.80pc in November, statistics agency Inegi said Thursday, after accelerating from 3.57pc in October. Inflation has trended higher since July, when it stood at 3.51pc — the lowest annual headline reading since December 2020. The annual figure was down from 4.21pc in December 2024 and marked the lowest year-end reading since 3.15pc in December 2020. The result came in below the 3.6pc forecast by Mexican bank Banamex, "interrupting the upward trend recorded since August, which we anticipate will resume in January." The bank added that full-year inflation for 2025 was below the historical average of 4.4pc. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, slowed to 4.33pc in December from 4.43pc in November, after accelerating from 4.28pc in October. This marked an eighth consecutive month above 4pc — the upper bound of the central bank's target range. Within core inflation, consumer goods eased to 4.30pc from 4.37pc in November, while services slowed to 4.35pc in December from 4.49pc. Among the largest contributors to CPI in December, weighted by Inegi, were tourism-related components, particularly airfare and long-distance bus fares ahead of the holiday season. Non-core inflation decelerated to 1.61pc in December from 1.73pc in November, remaining below 2pc in five of the past six months. Agriculture prices — especially fruits and vegetables — have been subdued this year by favorable weather conditions, although pressures are beginning to build. Annual inflation for fruits and vegetables contracted by 5.62pc in December, compared with contractions of 7.79pc in November and 10.27pc in October. The segment has faced rising inflationary pressure, Mexican bank Banorte said, driven by extreme rainfall in several states in November and nationwide roadblocks organized by freight truck associations in December. Energy price inflation slowed to 0.18pc in December from 0.54pc in October and 1.07pc in September. Inflation in the segment has remained contained since President Claudia Sheinbaum in early September renewed an agreement with fuel retailers to maintain a voluntary regular gasoline price cap of Ps24/l ($5.05/USG) for six months. Looking ahead, Banamex expects an increase in merchandise inflation at the start of 2026 due to higher tariffs and taxes, forecasting headline and core inflation to end 2026 at 4.3pc and 4.2pc, respectively. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Australian beef exports hit record high in 2025


08/01/26
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08/01/26

Australian beef exports hit record high in 2025

Dalby, 8 January (Argus) — Australian beef exports in 2025 reached 1.545mn t, surpassing all previous annual totals. This volume is higher than the 1.34mn tonnes exported in 2024 and 1.23mn t in 2019. December exports also set a record at 147,533t, exceeding previous December highs, according to data from Australia's Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry (DAFF) released on 7 December. Historically, December and January have been quieter months for beef exports due to public holidays and seasonal plant closures. Quotas and tariff resets for the new calendar year contributed to the rise in December shipments. Favourable seasonal conditions over consecutive years across large parts of the country led to ample cattle supply, record feedlot capacity , increased carcass weights, and strong processing capacity, all supporting the surge in exports. Strong international demand, particularly from the US, was a key driver. Drought conditions and tariffs on Brazilian beef increased US demand for lean beef, making Australian product more competitive. Exports to the US rose 15pc year-on-year to 452,795t in 2025. Strong demand for specific cuts and grain-fed beef drove Australian exports to China in 2025, despite safeguard tariffs and an import probe that caused some subdued trade periods. Australian exports to China totalled 272,939t in 2025, up 41pc from the previous year, keeping Australia among China's leading beef suppliers. China announced a 55pc tariff on beef imports from countries including Australia for shipments exceeding set quotas starting 1 January 2026, raising concerns for future trade. Australian beef exports to South Korea reached 221,350t in 2025, exceeding the 2024 record of 200,545t. Australian beef exports to Japan showed mixed trends in 2025, with monthly fluctuations and economic headwinds affecting trade. Exports to Japan totalled 257,378t in 2025, the first time the annual total exceeded 250,000t since 2020. Australian cattle slaughter totalled 7.18mn head in the year to 12 December 2025, with two weeks of data still to be added, data from Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA) show. This exceeds last year's total of 6.7mn head and is the highest total since 2019's 7.37mn head. Jessica Clarke Australian beef exports 2025 t US Japan China South Korea Indonesia Total Dec '25 41,225 22,632 29,878 21,138 7,837 147,533 Nov '25 41,714 24,877 20,345 17,399 5,018 131,705 Dec '24 42,104 18,082 23,860 18,496 5,759 127,393 Dec '23 35,763 19,014 18,399 15,458 4,012 106,724 Dec '22 16,617 16,429 12,950 16,125 2,498 76,118 Dec '21 15,277 16,819 13,805 15,181 2,412 77,058 2025 452,795 257,378 272,939 221,350 66,582 1,545,759 2024 394,543 247,604 193,227 200,545 84,178 1,343,568 2023 245,849 206,802 206,191 188,923 68,387 1,082,405 2022 133,841 214,305 158,086 160,725 39,324 854,592 2021 145,024 233,818 148,357 165,053 45,178 887,679 2020 211,376 269,302 196,696 160,850 47,733 1,039,410 2019 250,980 287,495 300,132 162,343 57,637 1,228,963 Totals include all destinations not just those listed Source: DAFF Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US E15 talks continue as funding crunch looms


07/01/26
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07/01/26

US E15 talks continue as funding crunch looms

New York, 7 January (Argus) — Energy groups are still negotiating legislation to expand access to a higher-ethanol gasoline blend and rein in refiners' ability to skirt biofuel mandates, as a looming funding impasse adds urgency to the talks. Negotiations that include the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the ethanol advocates Growth Energy and the Renewable Fuels Association continue, three people familiar with the talks told Argus . The hope is to reach some compromise on a bill that could revamp retail fuel markets in the US and convince lawmakers to add it to a larger package, potentially legislation to fund the government after 30 January. The powerful oil group withdrew support for a slimmer bill last year that would have allowed year-round sales of gasoline with 15pc ethanol (E15) and is pushing instead for a broader package that would make it harder for small refineries to win hardship exemptions from annual biofuel mandates. President Donald Trump's administration granted dozens of those hardship requests last year and floated making companies without exemptions blend more biofuels to compensate , unnerving oil majors and reshuffling the E15 debate. Smog rules separately limit summertime sales of E15 in most of the country without emergency waivers, which advocates say has deterred retailers from investing in new infrastructure. Most US gasoline is sold as a 10pc ethanol blend. The API and the ethanol groups agree on the general framework of a bill that would authorize E15 year-round and limit future exemptions from biofuel mandates, including by preventing larger refiners that own small units like Delek and Par Pacific from requesting relief. The groups plan to support adding new exemption provisions to existing E15 bill text rather than push lawmakers to scrap that draft, two people familiar with the talks said. But there are still thorny issues to resolve — such as the effective date for any changes — and some provisions risk riling energy and farm interests otherwise on board with reining in exemptions. Adding to, rather than replacing, the current E15 bill would, for instance, keep a provision effectively compensating some small refineries for past biofuel mandates. That draft would return compliance credits to certain refiners and — unlike current rules where credits expire — allow their use in future years. Even small facilities can spend tens of millions of dollars each year buying enough credits to comply with the mandates, and returned credits usable indefinitely would be even more valuable. Eligibility is limited to small refineries that retired credits to meet biofuel mandates in 2016, 2017 or 2018 and had hardship petitions outstanding to start December 2022, as well as companies that complied with 2018 quotas and had petitions denied before July 2022. EPA exemption data those years is limited, making it unclear which companies would benefit. Calling on Congress The groups working on revised bill text have another challenge: convincing Congress to act. Growth Energy, the Renewable Fuels Association and dozens of other farm and biofuel groups urged Congress to pass some E15 fix "as soon as possible" in a joint letter to House and Senate leaders on Wednesday, a nod to the looming deadline to fund the government before a potential shutdown later this month. E15 legislation is unlikely to pass on its own, so lobbyists are closely tracking the legislative calendar for opportunities to add it to larger packages. The letter does not mention the API talks, which are proceeding separately. Small refiners worried about losing access to relief — at the same time as the Trump administration readies what could be record-high biofuel quotas for the next two years — will also press sympathetic lawmakers. Notably, a statement accompanying a bipartisan appropriations bill draft released this week recommends that EPA rethink "policies and procedures" for exemptions in response to a 2022 Government Accountability Office analysis that criticized the agency's approach. That watchdog report questioned EPA's argument that small refineries can easily pass on the costs of meeting biofuel mandates in fuel sales. Energy lobbyists noted that the statement's recommendations are nonbinding and that similar language around exemptions has appeared in past statements accompanying appropriations bills. But it signals that some members of Congress might oppose any changes to fuel policy that could raise costs for refineries in their districts and states. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.