Agricultural commodity market analysis & forecast
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Fertilizer Matters EP54: War & Fertilizer Demand Destruction
Analysing why fertilizer demand destruction is happening, focusing on US, Brazil & Europe, crop margins, farmer application, food inflation, government reaction
French farmers aim to cut nitrogen needs in 2026, 2027
Impact of the Iran War on global commodity markets - part 2
Second edition - A brief analysis of the Iran war’s market impacts, outlining disruption levels and the commodities most exposed to shifting global conditions.
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Argentina GDP growth ticks higher in first quarter
Argentina GDP growth ticks higher in first quarter
Montevideo, 24 June (Argus) — Argentina's economic growth ticked up by 2.3pc in the first quarter of 2026 from a year earlier, led by agriculture and livestock, mining and exports. Growth in gross domestic product (GDP) edged up from 2.2pc in the fourth quarter of 2025 and compared with 3.3pc in the third quarter last year, according to INDEC, the statistics institute. It marked a sixth consecutive quarter of annual growth. Growth in the first quarter was led by agriculture, livestock and forestry, the country's traditional economic motor, which surged by 18.1pc. Fishing was up by 27.5pc and mining, where Argentina is beginning to make gains with copper, gold and lithium production, expanded by 12.3pc, according to INDEC, the statistics agency. Construction grew by 2.5pc. Private consumption rose by 2.7pc on the year, while exports grew by 9.8pc. Weighing on growth were manufacturing, which dipped by 1.7pc from a year earlier; utilities, down by 1.1pc; and retail and wholesale trade, down by 0.3pc on the year. Investment fell by 11.6pc on the year. The GDP numbers reflect a mixed bag for Argentina's economy, with exports rebounding, but investment down and inflation and unemployment stubbornly high. Inflation was at a 33.2pc annualized rate in May, an uptick after edging lower the prior two months, INDEC reported last week. Monthly inflation for May was 2.1pc, the lowest monthly rate since September 2025. -By Lucien Chauvin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Argus lifts Ukraine wheat output forecast for 2026-27
Argus lifts Ukraine wheat output forecast for 2026-27
Kyiv, 18 June (Argus) — Argus has revised up its 2026-27 Ukrainian wheat production forecast to 24.1mn t after a virtual crop tour showed stronger yield potential in southern and eastern regions. The new estimate is 3.4pc up from 2025-26 production and up from the 23.2mn t forecast in April. The nationwide yield is expected to be 4.73 t/ha, up by 6.3pc from the five-year average and 3.7pc higher on the year. The harvest area forecast is unchanged at 5.1mn ha. Projected output is also above the 22mn t average of the past four seasons. The yield outlook is brighter than for last year, which was dimmed by drought in southern and eastern Ukraine. Better crop establishment and ample spring rain supported gains in regions including Odesa, Mykolaiv, Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk. Yield prospects in central and western Ukraine remain robust and near record levels, reflecting stable conditions throughout the growing cycle. Lower-than-average spring temperatures and recent rainfall slowed development in central and western areas. The bulk of the harvest there is expected to start on 10 July — about a week later than usual. Harvesting in southern Ukraine is likely to stay on schedule for a late-June start. The Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Centre forecasts unstable weather, with thunderstorms and heavy showers, across northern, western and central regions on 20-30 June. Humid conditions will maintain soil moisture for crops such as corn, but excessive rain during the grain-filling stage raises the risk of lodging and fungal disease. With reports of lower nitrogen use in some areas, high humidity could increase the share of feed-grade wheat at harvest. By Alexey Yeromin Historical wheat production and yield in Ukraine mn t, t/ha Historical wheat harvested area in Ukraine mn ha Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Brazil’s central bank cuts target rate to 14.25pc
Brazil’s central bank cuts target rate to 14.25pc
Sao Paulo, 17 June (Argus) — Brazil's central bank lowered its target rate by a quarter point to 14.25pc today in its fourth meeting of 2026, while ongoing uncertainty over the Mideast Gulf war continues to weigh on the outlook. The decision to lower the rate, announced on Wednesday, followed similar 0.25pc cuts in March and April . Domestically, economic activity appears to be recovering from the previous quarter, and the labor market shows signs of resilience, the central bank's monetary committee Copom said. Despite inflation risks continuing to be higher than usual, the committee decided to maintain its cutting trajectory, it said. In the US, Federal Reserve policymakers kept the target rate unchanged Wednesday for a fourth meeting this year while penciling in a possible rate hike by the end of the year. Brazil's headline inflation accelerated to an annual 4.72pc in May . Inflation expectations, as calculated by the bank's Focus survey, remain above target at 5.3pc for 2026 and 4.1pc for 2027. Economic growth slowed to an annual 1.8pc in the first quarter, according to official statistics agency data. For full-year 2025, GDP growth slowed to 2.3pc from 3.4pc in 2024 By João Curi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Asia, Europe drive Brazil's ethanol demand: Panel
Asia, Europe drive Brazil's ethanol demand: Panel
Sao Paulo, 16 June (Argus) — Asian and European markets have been driving increasing demand for Brazilian ethanol, including for new market opportunities beyond road fuels, panelists said at the Argus Biofuels and Feedstocks Latin America conference in Sao Paulo on Tuesday. Global demand for ethanol from top biofuel producers Brazil and the US has grown on rising blend mandates in Asian countries such as Vietnam and India and higher fuel supply risks because of the war in the Middle East, Brazilian corn ethanol producer FS' commercial director Paulo da Cunha said. While US ethanol mostly heads to Asia and UK, there is a growing demand for Latin American — especially Brazilian — ethanol in Europe that could rise even more thanks to the recently adopted Mercosur-EU free trade agreement , Paraguayan corn ethanol firm Inpasa's trading director Renato Zicardi said. Brazil's domestic market isinvesting to supply sectors other than road transport, including the alcohol-to-jet route for sustainable aviation fuel and ethanol-fueled vessels, Cunha said. The International Maritime Organization has approved a corn-ethanol route for maritime transport, Zicardi said. Corn- and sugarcane-based ethanol complement each other and are not competitors, further supporting demand, Cunha said. The maturity and diversity of financing sources in Brazil for ethanol projects should help the sector develop in coming years without major hurdles, Spain-based bank Santander's project finance director Marcelo Sahatdjian said. By João Curi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.