Agricultural commodity market analysis & forecast
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Impact of the Iran War on global commodity markets - part 2
Second edition - A brief analysis of the Iran war’s market impacts, outlining disruption levels and the commodities most exposed to shifting global conditions.
Fertilizer Matters EP48: Feed Phosphates Market Fundamentals
Analysis of what’s driving the feed phosphate market, the impact of the Middle East conflict and the new Argus MDCP and DCP weekly feed phosphate price assessments.
Agriculture key drivers update: April 2026
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Romania crop tour: Another 2-4 weeks to prove potential
Romania crop tour: Another 2-4 weeks to prove potential
Bucharest, 5 June (Argus) — Producers in the southeastern-most corner of Romania, closest to the port of Constanta, expect wheat and barley yields considerably above last year's record, but the harvest is well behind schedule compared with previous years, which leaves crops vulnerable to damage. Ialomita, Calarasi and Constanta together account for 20pc of Romania's wheat production. Constanta — the largest producing zone of the three — is expecting the greatest increase in yields for both wheat and barley. The eastern part of Romania has struggled less with drought than the west of the country this year, reversing the typical comparison whereby eastern Romania suffers far more from droughts. Producers close to Constanta applied the usual treatments against crop disease, given a particularly high risk this year because the wet weather and snow caused some flooding after the winter. But some still reported fungal disease in the wheat head, even if the leaves were well protected. Fields were also visibly more affected by weeds in the east, as some producers skipped on weedkiller. This year's rapeseed crop was in generally good condition. The very late planting this year — some had to wait until the last week of October for rain to ease and allow fieldwork, compared with planting in late August in western Romania — has largely been offset by better conditions since. But producers are sceptical that Romania's rapeseed crop will surpass last year's record. Late harvest raises questions Farmers across the country this week have said their main worry is that crops — otherwise in excellent condition — are behind the usual schedule and still have to weather at least another 2-4 weeks out in the fields. The country was on alert for severe rain and storm, which finally broke on the evening of 4 June as the Argus team crossed out of Ialomita and back into Bucharest. Excess rain or hail could prove very damaging to quality at this point and cause further delays to the harvest. The push for high yields this year could also mean a lower-protein wheat crop, particularly if weather turns challenging in the very final stage before harvest. Some farmers have chosen to sow varieties that prioritise yield over quality this year, given the small difference in price between feed and milling grade — typically traded locally in relation to 12pc protein wheat, for exporters to blend into other grades later — on the domestic market, farmers told Argus . Protein content is notoriously hard to gauge while the crop is still in the ground. Deteriorating farmer finances could accelerate the shift to pushing for sheer volume over quality, but also mean that farmers plant less wheat for next year, as most head into the new season with little fertilizer for autumn sowing and a sharp increase in input costs as a result of disruption to nitrogen supply in the Middle East. A delay to the crop extending right across the country to Constanta raises the question of when exactly Romania's potentially record crop could hit the export market. Producers have started new-crop sales, spurred on by a sharp drop in the Romanian lei against the euro since political developments in May. But farmers are increasingly unwilling to sell on a cpt or dap Constanta basis rather than ex-farm because transportation costs have become volatile with the recent rise in diesel prices. That said, more exporters at Constanta are buying directly from farms, rather than local trading firms, which have struggled to survive financially in the past two years. This has led to the domestic market trading increasingly on a spot basis. By Alexandre Willekens and Claudia Jackson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US finds first screwworm livestock case since 1976
US finds first screwworm livestock case since 1976
Minneapolis, 4 June (Argus) — The New World screwworm (NWS) has been found in a Texas calf, marking the first US detection of the pest that damages livestock herds in decades, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) said. The pest was detected in a three-week old calf in La Pryor, Texas, around 100 miles from the Mexican border. NWS larvae burrow into the flesh of living animals, causing "serious damage to livestock and economic losses", the USDA said. NWS-infected animals can be returned to the herd after treatment, but some may be euthanized if treatment is not possible. NWS infections do not lead to culling like bird flu cases. NWS can reduce calf births and cut milk output, which affects both beef and dairy production. The US cattle herd totaled 86.2mn head as of the start of 2026, the lowest level since 1951, USDA data said. Ranchers will need to monitor herds closely for open wounds, where the parasite often enters, adding to the time and labor costs of raising cattle. "USDA invested heavily in the tools needed to eliminate NWS ever since cases started increasing in Central America and Mexico," USDA undersecretary for marketing and regulatory programs Dudley Hoskins said. "The United States has defeated this pest before, and we will do it again." The USDA will implement its NWS response plan, which includes a20km (12.4 mile) radiusquarantine zone around the detection, increased releases of sterile NWS flies, trapping of NWS flies at the Mexican border, and wildlife surveillance. Texas agriculture commissioner Sid Miller asked President Donald Trump to "declare New World screwworm a national agricultural emergency and marshal every available federal resource toward eradication". NWS was last detected in US livestock in 1976, also in Texas, USDA said. It was also found in wildlife and domestic animals in the Florida Keys in 2016 but was eradicated before infecting livestock. Fatality rates for untreated livestock are close to 100pc, but they fall dramatically with early detection and treatment, USDA said. By Alexander Schultz Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Brazil's Mato Grosso cuts 2025-26 corn exports outlook
Brazil's Mato Grosso cuts 2025-26 corn exports outlook
Sao Paulo, 1 June (Argus) — Brazil's central-western Mato Grosso state decreased its estimates for the 2025-26 corn crop exports due to higher domestic demand. Mato Grosso's 2025-26 corn exports outlook decreased by nearly 11pc in the month to 23.1mn metric tonnes (t), according to the state's institute of agricultural economics Imea. That is a 4.5pc drop from 2024-25 shipments. Total corn demand outlook rose to 54.35mn t, up by 0.4pc from the previous month, driven by the expansion of internal demand to cover needs from the animal feed and corn ethanol industries. That is almost in line with last season's 54.33mn t estimated demand. Imea estimates the state's demand at 22.1mn t, 6pc above last month's forecast and up by 12pc from the previous cycle. Interstate demand increased by 22pc to 9.2mn t from May. But that is approximately 11.6pc lower than in the 2024-25 cycle. Beginning stocks for the 2025-26 season fell to 1.6mn t from the 2.2mn last month. Final stocks also dropped to 620,000t in June from 750,000t in May. Imea readjusted figures for the 2024-25 crop this month. Total demand rose to 54.3mn t, a 1pc increase from the previous estimate boosted by regional demand. Mato Grosso's demand is now estimated at 19.8mn t, up by 4.6pc from last month's forecast and by 21pc from the previous cycle. Interstate demand also rose to 10.4mn t from 9.8mn t in May. That is up by 28pc from the 2023-24 season, boosted by the animal feed and corn ethanol industries and more competitive inland prices for the grain. Cotton Imea's estimates for Mato Grosso's total 2025-26 cotton demand increased by 1.6pc to 2.7mn t, a 0.05pc dip from the 2024-25 season. Exports for 2025-26 are estimated at almost 2.1mn t, up by 50,540t on the month and by 0.4pc from the total shipped in the 2024-25 cycle. Mato Grosso's cotton demand projection was revised downwards by 5,900t to 40,320t. Still, that is a 5.2pc increase on the year. Imea estimates interstate demand at almost 606,430t, 1.8pc below the previous season's. The forecast for final stocks decreased by 8.4pc on the month to 698,596t, down by around 18.5pc from the 2024-25 cycle. The outlook for the 2024-25 crop's interstate demand was stable at 617,545t, 5.8pc above the 2023-24 season. But Mato Grosso's demand estimate decreased by 7.4pc on the month to 38,320t, up by nearly 39pc from the previous cycle. Exports are expected to reach almost 2.1mn t, up by around 13.5pc from the 2023-24 cycle. Soybeans Imea kept its supply and demand outlook for the 2026-27 and 2025-26 soybean crops stable from May's outlook. Imea forecasts interstate demand at 5.2mn t for the 2026-27 season, stable from the previous estimate and down by 8.3pc from the 2025-26 crop. The exports forecast remains at 30.5mn t, down by 5pc from the previous season. Mato Grosso's consumption estimates were stable at 13.7mn t, up by 1.9pc from last season, supported by higher crushing capacity in the state amid increased demand for biofuels and soybean meal consumption. The forecast for final stocks remains at 140,000t, 78.5pc below the 2025-26 crop as supply is restricted. Total demand for the 2025-26 crop is still estimated at 51.2mn. This is up by 1pc from the 2024-25 season. Interstate demand remains estimated at 13.4mn t, up by 0.4pc from the previous cycle. By Bruno Castro Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US corn for ethanol production extends rise
US corn for ethanol production extends rise
Houston, 1 June (Argus) — US corn used for ethanol reached its highest April volume since 2019, according to the latest US Department of Agriculture data, even as US ethanol producers continued to also pull on sorghum to boost total output. Corn for ethanol rose to 428mn bushels (bu) in April, a 1pc increase from the same month last year and the largest volume since 440mn bu were used in April 2019. This marks the third consecutive month with a year-over-year increase in corn use. Increases in corn for ethanol use continue to lag overall ethanol production gains, however. April ethanol production totaled about 31.6mn bl, according to Energy Information Administration (EIA) data, a 3.2pc gain from the year prior. Sorghum use has skyrocketed since last April and continues to contribute to overall increases in ethanol production. Sorghum use in March totaled 10mn bu, EIA data said, a 25pc increase from the same month last year. Sorghum use data lags corn by a month. Sorghum for ethanol use has averaged 11.1mn bu over the past 12 months, with April figures expected to fall in the same range. By Joseph Crosby Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.