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Fertilizer Matters EP57: Urea market outlook
Analysis of the short-term urea market outlook, as uncertainty and geopolitical risks continue taking a toll
Organic Grain Imports Surge as U.S. Supply Stays Tight
Strong imports and regional supply risks define outlook for the 2026–27 marketing year
Fertilizer Matters EP56: Brazil’s Phosphate Market
Analysing Brazil’s phosphate market, Middle East conflict impact, key crops/products, soybean planting season, mosaic production cuts & possible buying surge
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Indonesia to continue 50pc biodiesel blend in 2027
Indonesia to continue 50pc biodiesel blend in 2027
Singapore, 17 September (Argus) — Indonesia will continue implementing a 50pc biodiesel-fossil diesel blend (B50) target in 2027, the country's ministry of energy and mineral resources (ESDM) said at the sixth palm biodiesel conference in Bali today. But the government will also consider adding 10pc of hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) into the diesel pool, on top of 50pc biodiesel next year, ESDM director general Eniya Listiani Dewi said. Indonesia currently requires 5pc of HVO to be blended into the diesel fuel pool with a cetane number (CN) of 51. Domestic fuel sales for CN51 gasoil were at 1.1mn kilolitres, followed by 1.3mn kl for CN48 and 520,000kl for CN53 gasoil in 2025, according to ESDM data. A ramp up to 10pc HVO blend for the entire diesel fuel pool appears ambitious, since the country currently lacks any dedicated HEFA production. State-controlled Pertamina can co-process up to 45,000 t/yr of HVO at its Dumai refinery, but domestically produced neat HVO is only planned to come to market in 2030, when it plans to bring a HEFA plant on line with roughly 890,000 t/yr total HVO and SAF production at its Plaju refinery in South Sumatra. The plant has not yet reached final investment decision, according to Argus records. Indonesia will also set a minimum one-year period for further infrastructure and supply chain upgrades before targeting a higher biodiesel blend percentage, Dewi added. The country moved to B50 in July . HVO is chemically identical to fossil diesel and can be used as a drop-in fuel without additional modifications to on-road vehicle engines, in contrast to biodiesel which requires further testing to ensure stable fuel use. By Malcolm Goh and Lauren Moffitt Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
France looks to barley to replace lost rapeseed areas
France looks to barley to replace lost rapeseed areas
Paris, 15 September (Argus) — French farmers could devote greater areas to winter barley planting at the expense of rapeseed for the 2027 crop, but dry weather and a fall in barley prices against wheat could still cap the rise. Argus expects EU rapeseed areas to fall by around 5pc on the year for the 2027 crop as dry soil conditions hamper fieldwork right up to the end of the crop's optimal planting window in mid-September, with France set for one of the sharpest declines. There is the potential for areas to fall even further given that dry weather is forecast to continue over the next two weeks, limiting the scope for the planting pace to recover before it becomes too late and farmers turn to other crops. The space left vacant by rapeseed could benefit the growing of winter barley, particularly if rainfall returns ahead of the main barley planting window running from late September to early November. In current conditions, low soil moisture across large parts of France is likely to discourage attempts to start planting barley ahead of time, even as an early corn harvest this year — currently under way — frees up fields for winter grains planting earlier than usual. If weather turns favourable, current projections point to European barley acreages for the 2026-27 (July-June) marketing year at close to a record high. Argus estimates EU winter barley areas at 5.42mn hectares for the 2027 crop, up from 5.30mn ha a year earlier and the highest in at least 15 years. In France alone, areas are projected at 1.4mn ha, the highest since 2016-17. But price signals have become less supportive in recent weeks as planting decisions are finalised. Between mid-October 2025 and early March 2026, French feed barley delivered to Rouen from the 2025 harvest regularly traded at parity with wheat, or even at a premium, which at times exceeded €10/t. Support for prices continued for the 2026 crop, at least while it was still in the ground. Between early May and late June this year, feed barley delivered to Rouen traded at discounts of only €5-10/t to wheat, significantly narrower than the typical spread between the crops. Support for barley prices relative to wheat has since eroded. Feed barley prices failed to fully track the recovery in Euronext wheat futures of the past two months, with this year's French feed barley crop last trading at around €18/t below the March futures contract, for delivery to Rouen in January-March. Whether barley prices regain ground against wheat in the coming weeks could prove decisive for farmers' winter planting decisions. Against this backdrop, there is little incentive for farmers to begin marketing their 2027 barley crop ahead of time. Dry weather remains a key source of uncertainty, because if winter barley areas fail to match up to their near-record potential, this could support prices later in the season. Furthermore, weaker corn output in France this year means that the domestic livestock sector is at risk of running out of supply long before next year's corn harvest can begin, regardless of how much corn farmers plant next spring, potentially creating extra demand for the 2027 barley crop straight off the harvest in June-July. Wheat presents a different picture, with some producers already showing interest in forward sales and beginning to lock in prices for part of their 2027 wheat crop. By Antoine Guyon Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
EU parliament rejects CBAM suspension clause: Update
EU parliament rejects CBAM suspension clause: Update
Adds deletion of Paris agreement carbon credits clause Brussels, 15 September (Argus) — The European Parliament today confirmed its rejection of a proposed new Article 27a to the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) that would have allowed the temporary suspension of the scheme for certain products. At the same time, they backed extending the CBAM to more than 180 additional steel and aluminium-intensive downstream products, including structures, pipes, tubes and components. Parliament's environment committee had already voted in July to extend the CBAM to a long list of downstream goods containing steel or aluminium. "This Article [27a] prevents investments in technologies of the future and punishes those that have already moved ahead," parliament's centre-left S&D draftsman Mohammed Chahim said. "The same people that are sceptical of the CBAM come to me and ask whether certain CN codes can be added to the list," he said. Chahim said parliament had rejected what he described as a "disguised" subsidy for foreign fertilizers through Article 27a. Instead, support for affected sectors in serious and unforeseen circumstances should come from CBAM revenues, he said. EU member states agreed on their CBAM revisions in June , supporting a similar expansion to downstream products while retaining a narrower version of Article 27a. Under the states' proposal, the CBAM could be suspended for certain products if import prices rose to 50pc above a 10-year average and remained at that level for six months. Argus analysis in June indicated that the CBAM was unlikely to be suspended for fertilizers under current market conditions if member states' proposed amendment was included in the final legislation. Only phosphate prices in some markets were above the threshold at the time. In a separate vote, parliament extended the list of products eligible for support under the temporary decarbonisation fund (TDF) to include urea, ammonium nitrate, ammonium sulphate and other mineral or chemical fertilizers containing nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium. Wheat and barley, excluding seed, as well as iron, steel, cement and aluminium products, also remain eligible. Parliament said MEPs want TDF support available from 2027 to 2029, rather than starting in 2028 as proposed by the European Commission. And they want downstream products that use CBAM-covered goods as inputs to be eligible for support from the fund. Parliament confirmed the environment committee's previous deletion of the clause enabling the commission to take into account carbon credits under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement when calculating the carbon price paid abroad. Parliament also approved new anti-circumvention provisions requiring the commission to monitor patterns "indicative of artificial splitting of transactions or other circumvention strategies aimed at falling below the de minimis threshold set at 50 tonnes of net mass in the CBAM regulation". EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra urged parliament and member states to reach agreement "well before" year-end. "Without agreement, there is a risk that the downstream extension simply cannot enter into force on 1 January 2028 as planned," he said. The vote, which passed by 464 votes to 50 with 159 abstentions, clears the way for negotiations with member states on a final legal text. Governments continue to support a more limited safeguard clause that could trigger temporary CBAM suspensions for sectors facing crisis conditions. By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Early Ukraine spring crop harvest lags 2025
Early Ukraine spring crop harvest lags 2025
Kyiv, 14 September (Argus) — Ukraine's spring crop harvests remained slower than a year earlier, while sunflower seed and soybean harvests made good progress this week. Ukraine's corn harvesting remained slow as of 14 September, preliminary agriculture ministry data show, with just 34,820 hectares (ha) cut, about 1pc of the forecast area, despite favourable weather. Farmers have been slow to start harvesting as a result of limited port operations and storage capacity with old crops. The country's average corn yields rose to 4.82 t/ha in the week ending 14 September from 3.59 t/ha a week earlier and 3.55 t/ha a year earlier. The Poltava region is showing good early yields, matching Argus ' virtual corn crop tour, with better conditions reported. Oilseed harvests advanced well on the week thanks to limited rains, with soybeans showing the biggest weekly progress. Both sunflower seed and soybean crops showed better initial yields because summer rains boosted soil moisture and temperatures stayed moderate during growth periods, unlike last season when sunflower was hit by drought. That said, production and yield figures are not yet representative for both oilseed crops. The soybean harvest in Ukraine started a week later this year than last. Farmers have cut 167,510ha, 11pc of the forecast area, as of 14 September. Ukraine's average soybean yields rose to 1.94 t/ha from 1.76 t/ha last week and 1.73 t/ha at the same point last year. Ukraine's sunflower harvest pace has lagged the past five seasons, starting two weeks later than the past two seasons. But the country's initial average sunflower yields have surged sharply above last year's drought-hit campaign, reaching 1.91 t/ha as of 14 September from 1.79 t/ha on average in 2025-26. Good soil moisture supported the yields. Major producing regions Kirovograd, Dnipropetrovsk and Poltava made the biggest progress in sunflower seed harvests. The US Department of Agriculture's (USDA) Wasde report in September left Ukraine's sunflower seed, soybean and corn crop forecasts unchanged at 13mn t, 5mn t and 31.8mn t, respectively, leaving its corn outlook less optimistic than Argus ' forecast of 32.1mn t for 2026-27. Winter crop harvests are almost complete, with only small wheat areas left. The ministry confirmed record wheat yields at 4.94 t/ha, leading to a total wheat output at 24.92mn t from 5,04mn ha, or 98pc of the forecast. Ukraine has finished its barley and rapeseed harvests, with barley yields at a record 4.34 t/ha and rapeseed output at 3.83mn t. The agriculture ministry's preliminary data will be confirmed by the State Statistics Service in later reports. By Kateryna Mudriian Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.