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France raises barley export estimates, tweaks wheat
France raises barley export estimates, tweaks wheat
Paris, 19 December (Argus) — The outlook for French wheat exports to countries outside of the EU this marketing year fell in the latest report from agricultural and sea products agency FranceAgriMer (FAM), but projections for barley exports to non-EU members rose. Barley exports are projected at 6.1mn t in 2025-26 (July-June) in FAM's December report, up by 2pc on the previous estimate but still the second-smallest amount since 2020-21. The projection includes 3.4mn t for non-EU markets, reflecting a 150,000t rise since FAM's estimates last month. FAM projects France's wheat exports (excluding durum) for the 2025-26 marketing year at 15.1mn t, broadly in line with its estimate last month but reflecting a shift of 250,000t of wheat from non-EU destinations to exports within the bloc. This puts exports to the non-EU market at 7.6mn t, more than double the previous year but still failing to recover to exports of just over 10mn t in 2022-23 and 2023-24. Rebound in winter-planted areas for 2026 crop French producers have had relatively favourable conditions for winter crop planting, with wheat, barley and rapeseed areas all set to rise on the year ahead of the 2026 harvest, according to the agriculture ministry. The ministry in its December report made the following projections of areas for the 2026 crop: Wheat (excluding durum) at 4.56mn hectares (ha), up by 2pc on the year but just below the average for the crops in 2021-25 Durum wheat at 199,000 ha, up by 1pc on the year but 15pc below the past five-year average Barley at 1.23mn ha, up by 3pc on the year but 2pc below the five-year average Rapeseed at 1.33mn ha, up by over 6pc on the year and by more than 9pc on the five-year average French producers had almost finished wheat planting as of 1 December, ahead of schedule, with crop development further along and conditions better than at the same point last year. Barley planting was slightly behind but planting conditions were better, compared with the previous year's crop. Higher yields than expected for 2025 corn France's 2025 corn harvest at 13.6mn t is down by 8pc on the year but broadly in line with the average in 2020-24. This restores a more positive outlook the crop after the ministry last month cut its estimate , citing the effects of hot and dry summer weather on yields. By Claudia Jackson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
La Nina may cut Brazil's 2025-26 winter corn
La Nina may cut Brazil's 2025-26 winter corn
Sao Paulo, 19 December (Argus) — Brazil's 2025-26 winter corn crop may face slight losses following the La Nina climate phenomenon, which delayed soybean planting. Farmers plant soybeans and winter corn in the same area, so delays in the oilseed planting could push back grain sowing. Areas sown outside the official planting window for the 2025-26 corn crop are subject to adverse weather conditions and risk reaching their reproductive stages of grain filling and flowering, which are more sensitive to water stress, at the height of winter in Brazil, when the weather is dry. The deadline for concluding soybean sowing in the center-west — which encompasses Goias, Mato Grosso, and Mato Grosso do Sul states — was 10-25 October for winter corn to be sown and developed with low climatic risk. The closing period for a winter corn crop with medium climatic risk was 21 October-5 November, according to market participants. Irregular weather at the start of the 2025-26 soybean planting caused a delay in some regions. Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul states finalized sowing in the weeks ended 5 December and 13 December, respectively. Planting in Goias state reached 97pc completion by 13 December. If corn planting is significantly delayed, farmers may also reduce the technology for planting. Planting outside the ideal window can harm productivity and, hence, the profitability of the crop. Prices of inputs needed for grain cultivation are higher this season, which can demotivate farmers to invest amid uncertain output. Production costs for Mato Grosso's 2025-26 winter corn crop rose from the previous one, with fertilizer costs estimated at R1,418/hectare ($256.50/ha) from R1,342/ha a year prior, according to the state's institute of agricultural economics Imea. But current estimates have yet to reflect this scenario. National supply company Conab kept its third estimates, released in December, mostly stable from the first outlook for the season published in October. Brazil is expected to produce 110.5mn metric tonnes (t) of corn in the second crop, 2.4pc less than the previous cycle's 113.2mn t. The drop reflects the expected 6pc decrease in yields to 6,105 kg/ha from 6,496 kg/ha. This may come despite the nearly 4pc increase in planted area to 18.1mn ha (181,000km²). Corn prices are expected to remain stable in the coming months, according to Investment bank Itau BBA forecasts. The 2024-25 corn season — considering the first, second and third crops — increased by nearly 21pc, or 24.2mn t, but high domestic demand helped sustain prices. Total 2025-26 corn output may drop by 1.5pc, or 2.2mn t, but it is expected that prices may be firm due to the competition between domestic and export markets. La Nina effects La Nina provoked irregular rainfall in October-November and consequently delayed the 2025-26 soybean planting window. The La Nina phenomenon is an abnormal cooling of the equatorial waters of the Pacific Ocean. The consequence of this phenomenon in Brazil is a delay in the start of regular rainfall, reducing volumes in the south and increasing humidity in the north and northeast. Although classified as low intensity and short duration, with a peak between November-December, this year's La Nina has been altering rainfall patterns in Brazil and is expected to last until early 2026. The trend is that the country will resume its usual climate patterns as of February. 2025-26 soy crop should maintain record But Brazil is still on track to produce a record amount of oilseed despite delays to the 2025-26 soybean planting. Although irregular rainfall at the beginning of the season delayed planting in major producing states, the return of regular rainfall should compensate losses caused by a possible drought in southern Rio Grande do Sul state. Even with Conab's third estimate still forecasting a record harvest of 177.1mn t, 3.3pc above the the 2024-25 cycle, the forecast is lower than the 177.6mn t in Conab's first projection. The drop is a result of lower estimates for nationally planted area, which fell to 48.9mn ha in the third estimate from 49.1mn ha in the first. By Sofia Zizza Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Global beef production to decline in 2026: Rabobank
Global beef production to decline in 2026: Rabobank
Dalby, 19 December (Argus) — Global beef production will decline in 2026, marking the first contraction in animal protein output in six years, according to the Global Animal Protein Outlook 2026 by Netherlands-based investment bank Rabobank. Herd rebuilding in North America and Brazil, combined with structural adjustments in China, will tighten supply and keep prices firm across major markets, according to the report. North America Beef cattle numbers in the US and Canada fell for six straight years in 2020-25, but stronger profitability is slowing liquidation and supporting herd rebuilding. US beef cow slaughter dropped by 19pc on the year in 2025, with the culling rate projected at 8.5pc for 2026, below the long-term average. Canada is also stabilising its herd, while Mexico faces supply constraints from disease-related import restrictions. Per capita beef supplies will likely fall by 6pc from 2020 highs, maintaining upward pressure on prices. Feeder cattle prices rose by 26pc in the US and 28pc in Canada in 2025, with further increases likely in 2026, according to Rabobank. North American imports have narrowed the supply gap, but trade tensions may cap volumes. Exports from the region will likely decline because domestic demand remains strong. Brazil and Argentina Brazilian beef production will likely fall by 5-6pc in 2026 to 10.5mn t because producers may retain cattle to rebuild herds. But exports will likely hit a record 4.4mn t because of strong global demand, a weak Brazilian real and reduced competition from other suppliers, despite lower output. China is set to remain Brazil's largest buyer, while trade diversification targets Mexico and other markets. Domestic consumption will likely drop by up to 9pc because high prices are pushing consumers toward cheaper proteins. Argentina faces similar dynamics. Production is expected to hold steady at 3.23mn t, but exports will likely reach the second-highest level on record at 880,000t, because of competitive pricing and strong demand from China, the US and EU. Local consumption will likely fall by 4pc on the back of an accelerating shift to poultry and pork. China China's beef production rose in early 2025 because of herd liquidation but will likely decline slightly in 2026 due to shrinking inventories. Beef prices will rise because of tighter supply, while the country's imports may ease by 2-3pc because of global supply constraints and higher prices. Imports account for 30pc of China's total supply. Meanwhile, retail demand remains resilient, with growth in online channels, but food service recovery will be modest. Australia and New Zealand Australian beef production will remain near record highs at 2.85mn t in 2026, supported by large cattle inventories and strong export demand from the US, Japan, South Korea and China. Prices are expected to hold firm, with the National Young Cattle Indicator forecast at A$4.30-4.80/kg ($2.84-3.17/kg). New Zealand beef output will recover gradually. The cattle population is projected to rise by 3pc and export prices are forecast to stay 15pc above the five-year average in 2026. By Amy Phillips Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Brazil's 2025-26 soy planting at 94.1pc
Brazil's 2025-26 soy planting at 94.1pc
Sao Paulo, 16 December (Argus) — Brazil's 2025-26 soybean planting advanced to 94.1pc of the expected area in the week ended 13 December, according to national supply company Conab. Planting advanced by 3.8 percentage points from the week prior. The 2024-25 sowing was 96.8pc complete at this time in 2024. The five-year average for the period is 90.6pc. Sowing activities have finished in central-western Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul, southeastern Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais, and southern Parana states. Summer corn Planting for the 2025-26 first corn crop reached 77.5pc of Brazil's expected area, up by 6.2 percentage points on the week, according to Conab. That is slightly ahead of the 75pc planted at this time last year for the 2024-25 cycle. This season's progress is also ahead of the 70.3pc five-year average for the period. Parana and Sao Paulo have already finished planting. Cotton Planting activities for the 2025-26 cotton crop reached 10.1pc completion in the week ended 13 December, according to Conab. Activities advanced by 4.8 percentage points from the previous week. Northeastern Maranhao is the only state where activities have not started. Sowing nationwide is slightly above the five-year average for the period of 5.8pc, but below the 12.2pc pace in the same week last season. Wheat The 2025 wheat harvest advanced by 1.7 percentage points to 99.7pc of the area sowed nationwide in the week ended 13 December. The 2024 crop was 100pc harvested at this time a year ago. This season's progress is slightly ahead of the 98.7pc five-year average for the week. By Bruno Castro Planting progress % State 2025 2024 Five-year average 13 Dec 6 Dec 14 Dec Soybean crop, 2025-26 Tocantins 98.0 93.0 99.0 89.8 Maranhao 42.0 38.0 59.0 51.4 Piaui 88.0 78.0 94.0 76.2 Bahia 97.0 94.0 97.0 87.2 Mato Grosso 100.0 100.0 100.0 99.7 Mato Grosso do Sul 100.0 99.0 100.0 98.8 Goias 97.0 92.0 99.3 92.4 Minas Gerais 100.0 98.2 100.0 94.6 Sao Paulo 100.0 100.0 100.0 98.8 Parana 100.0 97.0 100.0 98.0 Santa Catarina 86.0 79.0 91.0 79.9 Rio Grande do Sul 81.0 69.0 91.0 70.6 Total 94.1 90.3 96.8 90.6 Summer corn crop, 2025-26 Maranhao 6.0 4.0 5.0 5.6 Piaui 8.0 4.0 10.0 5.2 Bahia 86.0 71.0 63.0 58.0 Goias 80.0 70.0 99.0 64.4 Minas Gerais 97.0 85.2 100.0 89.8 Sao Paulo 100.0 90.0 100.0 92.2 Parana 100.0 100.0 100.0 99.6 Santa Catarina 99.7 98.9 100.0 98.4 Rio Grande do Sul 90.0 87.0 88.0 86.0 Total 77.5 71.3 75.0 70.3 Cotton crop, 2025-26 Maranhao 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 Piaui 5.0 0.0 8.0 1.0 Bahia 32.0 20.0 43.0 21.6 Mato Grosso 2.4 0.8 2.5 0.9 Mato Grosso do Sul 22.0 10.0 45.0 16.6 Goias 45.0 5.0 54.0 21.2 Minas Gerais 33.0 16.0 38.0 13.4 Total 10.1 5.3 12.2 5.8 — Conab Harvesting progress % State 2025 2024 Five-year average 13 Dec 6 Dec 14 Dec Wheat crop, 2025 Goias 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Minas Gerais 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Bahia 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Rio Grande do Sul 100.0 99.0 100.0 96.2 Parana 100.0 99.0 100.0 99.6 Santa Catarina 93.0 74.0 100.0 85.0 Sao Paulo 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Mato Grosso do Sul 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Total 99.7 98.0 100.0 98.7 — Conab Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.