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Tighter balance in 2025-26, weather driving the outlook for EU and Black Sea supply
Weather and sufficient rainfall will be crucial for wheat production in Russia, Ukraine and Romania in 2025-26, with dry soil threatening to pull current output projections lower.
Brazil’s corn export routes diversify with flows from northern ports: New Key Port Differentials
Corn is the country’s second-largest crop, behind soybeans, but output has nearly tripled in the last two decades
Video - 07/01/25Agriculture market outlook: Game changers to come in 2025 and 2026
Watch this video to know more about the key drivers to watch out for in the grains and oilseeds markets
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USDA overhauls 'climate-smart' agriculture program
USDA overhauls 'climate-smart' agriculture program
Houston, 17 April (Argus) — The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has begun to overhaul a program that for three years incentivized "climate-smart" practices to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through grants to farmers, ranchers and forest landowners. USDA has cancelled the Partnerships for Climate-Smart Commodities (PCSC), a program launched during former US president Joe Biden's administration, agency administrator Brooke Rollins said on Monday. Instead, the USDA has "reformed and overhauled" the program into the Advancing Markets for Producers (AMP) initiative. According to the USDA, most of the projects under the Biden-era program "had sky-high administration fees" that resulted in considerably less federal funding being provided to farmers. The agency said it will review and potentially allow some projects to continue if they show that producers are receiving at least 65pc of federal funds. "We continue to support farmers and encourage partners to ensure their projects are farmer focused or re-apply to continue work that is aligned with the priorities of this administration," the agency said. In addition, the USDA said it will review current projects based on whether recipients of PCSC grants had at least one enrolled producer and made a payment to at least one producer before the end of last year. Any expenses incurred under the PCSC before this week's announcement will be honored, the agency said. The PCSC, which the agency launched in February 2022, had the potential to increase supply in the voluntary carbon market. It was designed to help farmers, ranchers, and forest landowners use climate-smart practices such as those that help improve and maintain soil quality of forests, promote the use of cover crops, and encourage prescribed grazing. The program funded projects that created market opportunities for products produced through climate-smart practices and used cost-effective methods for tracking and verifying resulting reductions in GHG emissions. The Biden-era program initially had funding amounting to $1bn before more than tripling to $3.5bn a few months after its launch. But the USDA under US president Donald Trump appears to be downsizing that program, and it remains unclear how many projects will be permitted to continue. The move is part of a broader effort by the new administration to review, reconsider and potentially roll back federal climate policies. The US Environmental Protection Agency is reviewing more than 30 Biden-era emissions and water regulations. In addition, the president issued an executive order last week directing the Department of Justice to review and potentially challenge state and local climate policies, calling out California's cap-and-trade program as one potential target. By Ida Balakrishna Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Canada grants tariff relief to automakers
Canada grants tariff relief to automakers
Pittsburgh, 17 April (Argus) — The Canadian government will allow automakers to circumvent retaliatory tariffs to continue importing US-assembled vehicles if the companies keep making cars in Canada. Canada began taxing imports of US-made vehicles and parts on 9 April at a 25pc rate in response to a similar tariff the US had implemented. Canada's tariff on vehicle imports from the US will not apply to car companies that keep their Canadian plants running, the country's finance minister said this week. The measure attempts to prevent closures of auto plants and layoffs in the Canadian automotive sector that the US tariffs threaten to cause. Automaker Stellantis paused production at its Windsor, Ontario, assembly plant in early April to evaluate the US tariff on vehicle imports. The plant will re-open on 22 April, Stellantis said. General Motors also plans to reduce production of its electric delivery fan at its Ingersoll, Ontario plant. The slowdown will result in layoffs of 500 workers, the Unifor union said. The automotive industry in the US, Canada and Mexico has struggled to adapt its supply chains to the new tariffs because the US, Canada Mexico free trade agreement (USMCA) and its predecessor helped establish an interconnected North American auto sector. In another measure, companies in Canada will get a six-month reprieve from tariffs on imports from the US used in manufacturing, food and beverage packaging. The six-month relief also applies to items Canada imports from the US used in the health care, public safety and national security sectors. "We're giving Canadian companies and entities more time to adjust their supply chains and become less dependent on US suppliers," finance minister Francois-Philippe Champagne said in a statement. By James Marshall Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Risks rising for possible recession in Mexico: Analysts
Risks rising for possible recession in Mexico: Analysts
Mexico City, 17 April (Argus) — The Mexican finance executive association (IMEF) lowered its 2025 GDP growth forecast for a second consecutive month in its April survey, citing a rising risk of recession on US-Mexico trade tensions. In its April survey, growth expectations for 2025 fell to 0.2pc, down from 0.6pc in March and 1pc in February. Nine of the 43 respondents projected negative growth — up from four in March, citing rising exposure to US tariffs that now affect "roughly half" of Mexico's exports. The group warned that the risk of recession will continue to rise until tariff negotiations are resolved, with the possibility of a US recession compounding the problem. As such, IMEF expects a contraction in the first quarter with high odds of continued negative growth in the second quarter — meeting one common definition of recession as two straight quarters of contraction. Mexico's economy decelerated in the fourth quarter of 2024 to an annualized rate of 0.5pc from 1.7pc the previous quarter, the slowest expansion since the first quarter of 2021, according to statistics agency data. Mexico's statistics agency Inegi will release its first estimate for first quarter GDP growth on April 30. "A recession is now very likely," said IMEF's director of economic studies Victor Herrera. "Some sectors, like construction, are already struggling — and it's just a matter of time before it spreads." The severity of the downturn will depend on how quickly trade tensions ease and whether the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade agreement is successfully revised, Herrera added. But the outlook remains uncertain, with mixed signals this week — including a possible pause on auto tariffs and fresh warnings of new tariffs on key food exports like tomatoes. IMEF also trimmed its 2026 GDP forecast to 1.5pc from 1.6pc, citing persistent tariff uncertainty. Its 2025 formal job creation estimate dropped to 220,000 from 280,000 in March. The group slightly lowered its 2025 inflation forecast to 3.8pc from 3.9pc, noting current consumer price index should allow the central bank to continue the current rate cut cycle to lower its target interest rate to 8pc by year-end from 9pc. IMEF expects the peso to end the year at Ps20.90/$1, slightly stronger than the Ps21/$1 forecast in March. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Argentina FX change, return of tax to spur exports
Argentina FX change, return of tax to spur exports
Sao Paulo, 14 April (Argus) — Argentinian farmers will likely boost exports of soybeans, corn and other products in coming months after the government loosened foreign exchange controls and President Javier Milei said export taxes will rise again at the end of June. Those two factors, combined with better weather conditions for soybean and corn harvesting should spur sales, according to Javier Preciado Patiño, director of RIA Consultores. The Argentinian peso is expected to weaken with the new exchange rules, which will move it from trading with a narrow peg to the dollar to moving within a wider, slowly expanding, range against the US currency. A weaker currency will increase the number of pesos Argentinian farmers receive in exchange for products priced in dollars, such as corn, wheat, soybeans, soybean meal and soybean oil. The new rules also get rid of a special exchange rate for exporters that left farmers with less money for their sales abroad, which will also encourage producers to sell. Milei announced the exchange rule changes on 11 April and they went into effect today. As a result, the value of the peso weakened through out the day, losing 11pc relative to the US dollar. Argentina has gone through a series of complicated exchange rate regimes over the years intended to prevent a rapid devaluation of the peso, keep dollars from flowing out of the country and allow the country's central bank to maintain enough dollar reserves to meet debt servicing needs and import necessary goods. Looming tax increase Milei's announcement today that a temporary tax reduction on ag exports will end as expected in June should also push farmers to sell more of their crops in the next few months. Until this morning, many people in the farming sector had hoped that the tax cut initiated by the government in January would be extended, or that duties would be eliminated altogether . But Milei confirmed the end of the tax cut in June during a radio interview today. The temporary cuts, which reduced the tax on soybeans to 26pc from 33pc, cut soybean product taxes to 24.5pc from 31pc, and trimmed the levy on corn, wheat, barley and sorghum to 9.5pc from 12pc, will revert to their previous levels, the president said. "Let farmers know that if they want to sell, they should sell now, because the taxes will return" as scheduled, he said. Argentinian governments have for years taxed exports of agricultural products, taking advantage of the country's status as a farming giant to raise much-needed funds, but also reducing farmers' incomes. Waterlogged fields Improved weather is also expected to boost sales, especially for soybeans, in the next few weeks. Argentina's soybean harvest got off to a slow start about two weeks ago because steady rains in many areas had left fields and rural roads too soggy for farm equipment to enter. Sunny weather in recent days has helped dry fields out, and farmers in those areas will want to pick up the pace to take advantage of improved conditions to make up for lost time, according to Patiño. The improving pace of harvest is expected to provide farmers ample supplies to sell in the coming weeks, allowing them to exploit of the advantageous currency situation. By Jeffrey T. Lewis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
