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Dutch marine ticket prices surge on shortfall concerns
Dutch marine ticket prices surge on shortfall concerns
London, 31 July (Argus) — Dutch marine ticket prices reached a four-month high this week, as buyers rushed to secure the tradeable compliance credits after port sales data highlighted a potential shortfall in biofuel supply needed for the Netherlands' shipping renewable energy mandate. Dutch regulations state marine fuel suppliers must cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2.9pc in 2026, rising to 8.2pc by 2030, against a baseline of 94g CO2e/MJ. Compliance is demonstrated through surrender of renewable fuel tickets, called ZRE-Gs, which are generated when renewable fuels are supplied. These can be traded. Fuel suppliers can either blend renewable fuels or purchase ZRE-Gs from over-compliant peers. But Port of Rotterdam data show marine biodiesel sales, although sharply up on the year, appear to remain below what is needed to generate enough ZRE-Gs for all Dutch bunker fuel suppliers to meet their 2026 obligations. A shortfall could call into question a strategy pursued by several conventional fuel suppliers, who intended to meet part — or all — of their obligations through ticket purchases rather than physical biofuel blending. ZRE-Gs rose to 13.40c/kgCO2e on Thursday, equivalent to $456/t of Advanced Fame blended, having been around 10.50c/kgCO2e through most of July. The full extent of any shortage is impossible to determine. The published data are limited to one port, and the consumption figures include biofuels blended with fossil fuel not just pure biofuels. The level of compliance is based on the GHG savings of the biofuel used, which varies from one batch of fuel to another. Still, Rotterdam is a key bio-bunker hub, and even conservative calculations from Argus and some obligated parties show a deficit in biofuel usage at the port. The prospect of a shortage is particularly concerning for fuel suppliers, because non-compliance can lead to an administrative fine of up to 10pc of turnover from the previous year. Participants have also questioned if any shortfall can be covered by credits from other transport sectors. While Dutch regulations allow some cross-sector flexibility, road transport LRE-G tickets have traded at around four to five times those of marine ZRE-Gs this year, limiting the likelihood of additional supply flowing into the marine market. It is also unclear if the road sector will have much surplus available, given road mandates are much higher than for maritime. The increase in ZRE prices led to a decline in B100 Advanced fatty acid methyl ester (Fame) dob Netherlands prices. They fell by $63.50/t to $1,286.50/t on 30 July, while marine gasoil (MGO) dob ARA was assessed at $1,288.50/t on the same day. This is the first time B100 Advanced Fame dob Netherlands was assessed lower than MGO since the marine biodiesel assessment began on 22 January. B100 costs on the rise Rising net B100 costs had already been supporting ZRE values before the release of the Rotterdam data, and it has been more expensive on an outright basis that conventional marine fuels throughout 2026. Although it can be at a substantial discount for shipowners, when EU ETS and FuelEU Maritime savings are taken into account, relative to fossil bunker fuels, that advantage has narrowed in recent months as FuelEU surplus values have fallen. Argus estimates FuelEU surplus prices trading in the market declined to €120/t in July from €215/t at the start of the year, reducing the potential savings for using B100 for shipowners under pooling schemes to around $430/t from around $786/t. MGO prices have risen this month, and ranged in $900-1,200/t in July. Rotterdam bunker sellers typically account for ZRE costs within outright sale prices. By comparison, outright B100 prices have ranged in $1,286.50-1,390/t, but fall to around $450-650/t after accounting for ETS and FuelEU surplus savings. The shrinking gap between B100 and conventional fuel compliance costs has added further support to ZRE demand in recent months because of the lower benefit to shipowners. By Madeleine Jenkins Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
European diesel cracks at record as Med supply tightens
European diesel cracks at record as Med supply tightens
London, 31 July (Argus) — Diesel crack spreads reached new records across Europe this week, topping $90/bl on 29 July, with supply tightness most prevalent in the Mediterranean region, where prices are at the highest premium to northwest Europe in three months. Diesel cargoes loading from the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub settled at a $85.86/bl premium to benchmark North Sea Dated crude on Thursday, 30 July, up by 16pc on the week. Cracks exceeded the most recent all-time high set earlier in July and have risen by more than 50pc since the start of the month. The effects of the strait of Hormuz closure and of Russia's diesel export ban, which was extended on Thursday , have been particularly felt in the Mediterranean. Turkey is normally the largest buyer of Russian diesel, but flipped to a net-importer from European countries for the first time since November 2022 this month. Diesel cargoes delivered into the west Mediterranean settled at a $91.67/bl premium to Dated on Thursday, the second highest on Argus' records after Wednesday's peak of almost $95/bl. Competition between the Mediterranean and northwest Europe for non-European supply has surged in recent days, according to market participants. The premium for diesel cargoes delivered to the west Mediterranean against cargoes delivered to ARA settled at a three-month high of $33.50/t on Thursday. Only in April this year has that been higher since May 2022. Disruption to shipping in the Red Sea caused by attacks from the Yemen-based Houthi group this week — including on Saudi state-controlled Aramco facilities in Jizan and Yanbu — could place further strain on European supply, again with the effects felt more in the Mediterranean, traders said. Mediterranean EU countries have relied on Saudi Red Sea ports for 24pc of their diesel imports since April, while northwest European EU countries have only relied on the region for 17pc of their imports. Only 100,000t of diesel has loaded from Saudi Red Sea ports since 27 July, down from almost 600,000t in the previous week, and no tankers have loaded diesel from Jizan, according to Vortexa. Competition continues to rise Buyers in the eastern Mediterranean and the Black Sea are out-competing those in northwest Europe for alternative supply, pulling in "huge volumes", market participants said. Turkish imports of non-Russian diesel are on track to be above 600,000t in July, which would be the highest since December 2022. This includes a Suezmax cargo from Indian refiner Reliance's 1.4mn b/d Jamnagar plant, according to Vortexa. Greece's imports have risen to a seven-month high so far in July. In the Black Sea, Romania has leaned heavily on Saudi Arabian Red Sea supply, importing more than 175,000t in July on two Long Range 2 (LR2) tankers, one each from Yanbu and Jizan. This brought the country's net imports to an eight-month high. Seaborne arrivals into Ukraine have also reached an eight-month high. Flows from northwest Europe to the Mediterranean have not picked up despite the favourable price spread. Almost 400,000t has loaded on that route so far in July, matching the average of the prior three months. Lower export availability in the Mediterranean may have discouraged the trade, as tankers could have to return empty, a trader said. US supply patterns have also shifted. More than half of US Gulf Coast supply that has discharged in Europe so far in July did so in the Mediterranean, compared with just 13pc in all of 2025. A record amount of diesel loaded from the US for Europe in the week to 26 July , and loadings have continued at a fast pace this week. But that is not enough to outweigh the present constraints, market participants said. Independently-held stocks at ARA fell to the third-lowest on consultancy Insights Global's records this week. Lower barge flows from ARA, because of the diminished Rhine River water levels, could have the effect of increasing German demand for cargoes to its Baltic Sea ports, a trader said. The backwardated structure in Ice gasoil futures — indicative of prompt supply tightness — was the widest in three months on Thursday. By Josh Michalowski Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Saudi Arabia unveils maritime defence alliance
Saudi Arabia unveils maritime defence alliance
Singapore, 31 July (Argus) — Saudi Arabia on 30 July announced the formation of a maritime defence alliance with 13 other countries, to address shared maritime threats and protect navigation through the Bab el-Mandeb strait, the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. Saudi Arabia hosted a meeting on 30 July with representatives from 43 countries, out of which 14 issued a joint statement affirming their support for the Multinational Maritime Defense Alliance project, according Saudi Arabia's ministry of defence. The alliance is a defence initiative seeking to strengthen collective maritime security, protect international sea lanes, preserve freedom of navigation and global trade, and share responsibility in confronting common threats. The 14 countries include Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, Yemen, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Sudan, Djibouti and Somalia. Participants at the meeting discussed the growing threats targeting maritime security, including attacks on vessels, energy tankers and maritime infrastructure, as well as the risks these pose to the safety of maritime navigation, global supply chain stability, and the international economy. Participants emphasised the importance of strengthening multilateral defence co-operation to deal with these threats and maintain the security of international sea lanes. The meeting also addressed the founding arrangements for the alliance, with Saudi Arabia set to serve as its founding and leading state and host its headquarters. Military planners from countries intending to join the alliance will work to complete founding procedures including finalising the charter and its reference documents, completing the organisational structure, command and control arrangements, operational mechanisms and forming the necessary frameworks and teams. Diversions and delays The Iran-backed Yemeni Houthi militant group announced a ban on Saudi Arabian maritime navigation on 20 July. The group has claimed attacks on Saudi-linked shipping and infrastructure since then, including on Saudi state-controlled Aramco facilities in Jizan and Yanbu, with satellite images suggesting fires at Jizan. Crude tanker movements have been disrupted as a result, especially for Saudi Arabia's exports from the Red Sea. Some tankers have abandoned planned transits through the mouth of the Red Sea and have instead turned north toward the Suez Canal, potentially adding around a month to the voyage along with higher freight costs if destined for Asian or east African markets. Tanker markets have so far viewed the announcement of the alliance as a positive development, but any immediate impact on freight rates is expected to be limited. A lasting improvement in shipping conditions would more likely stem from de-escalation efforts rather than from additional military deployments, market participants said. Until there is clear evidence of reduced regional tensions and a sustained improvement in security conditions, shipowners are likely to remain cautious and avoid transits through the region. The coalition should support sentiment, but owners would place far greater weight on any indication from the Houthis themselves that they are committed to de-escalation, a shipbroker said. Additional naval protection helps, but the missiles will still be flying, they added. For now, war-risk premiums, insurance costs and transit assessments are unlikely to change materially on the back of an announcement alone, another market participant said. By Prethika Nair and Sean Lui Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Mexico economy tops forecasts with 2.2pc 2Q growth
Mexico economy tops forecasts with 2.2pc 2Q growth
Mexico City, 30 July (Argus) — Mexico's economy grew by 2.2pc in the second quarter of 2026, led by solid expansion in the agricultural sector and steady growth in the industrial and services sectors. Growth in gross domestic product (GDP) accelerated from an annual 0.2pc in the first quarter, statistics agency Inegi reported. The first-quarter figure was revised up from 0.1pc, reinforcing signs that the economy began gaining momentum in March. The second-quarter result followed 1.7pc annual growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 and a 0.2pc contraction in the third quarter last year. The primary sector, which includes agriculture, fishing, mining and hydrocarbon extraction, expanded by 7.6pc in the second quarter after growing 0.4pc in the first quarter, revised from an initial estimate of a 0.1pc contraction. Industrial sector output, including manufacturing, construction and mining, grew by 0.9pc after contracting 1.2pc in the first quarter, revised from a 1.3pc decline. The services sector expanded by 2.6pc from April to June, up from 1pc growth in the first quarter, revised from 0.7pc growth. The annualized second-quarter result surpassed the 2.1pc estimate from Mexican bank Banorte and well above its 1.6pc consensus estimate. Banorte said the "very positive" data reinforces its forecast for 1.4pc GDP growth in 2026, citing expected support from industrial and services activity. Banorte expects investment to remain a key driver, highlighting large planned projects in retail and e-commerce, including Mercado Libre's $4.6bn investment in Mexico. It also expects construction to benefit from government-backed spending on hospitals, natural gas infrastructure and renewable power projects. Banorte added that Mexico's trade outlook remains favorable despite the US decision on 1 July not to renew the USMCA free trade agreement while negotiations continue. Fitch Ratings estimates the latest US tariffs tied to forced-labor measures will actually lower Mexico's effective tariff rate to 3.7pc from 5pc. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.