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UK refiners seek unused CO2 allowances after closures
UK refiners seek unused CO2 allowances after closures
London, 23 December (Argus) — UK downstream association Fuels Industry UK has urged the government to reallocate unused free CO2 allowances from two recently closed refineries to help remaining plants cope with rising emissions compliance costs. The group wants allowances granted under the UK Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) for the 150,000 b/d Grangemouth and 105,700 b/d Lindsey refineries to be redistributed. Each allowance permits the holder to emit one tonne of CO2 equivalent. Grangemouth and Lindsey were allocated 441,925 and 541,475 allowances for 2025, respectively. It is unclear how many remain after their closures in April and August. The association warned the sector "may not survive that long" without temporary support, citing carbon costs that exceed those faced by overseas competitors until the UK's carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) takes effect. ExxonMobil's 270,000 b/d Fawley refinery — the UK's largest — will spend $70mn-80mn on carbon costs this year, rising to $150mn within five years, the company's UK chair Paul Greenwood told MPs during an Energy Security and Net Zero Committee hearing in October. Fuels Industry UK chief executive Elizabeth de Jong also addressed the committee, highlighting broader cost pressures. It remains unclear whether refined fuels will be covered by the UK CBAM, which starts in January 2027. Fuels Industry UK is seeking confirmation that they be included from January 2028, and it wants additional free UK ETS allowances distributed to sectors not covered by CBAM during a "volatile" period linked to expected UK-EU carbon market linkage. Such linkage would exempt UK and EU from each other's CBAMs, but talks have yet to start. UK refiners have also missed out on government energy price support schemes during the gas price surge triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, de Jong told MPs. Refiners paid market rates to power operations at their UK sites, missing out on discounts afforded to UK companies under the Energy Bill Relief Scheme, which ran between October 2022-March 2023, and then under the Energy Bills Discount Scheme between April 2023-March 2024. By contrast, US refiners access natural gas at roughly one-third of UK prices, Greenwood said. By George Maher-Bonnett Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Viewpoint: Policy delays refocus US SAF industry
Viewpoint: Policy delays refocus US SAF industry
Houston, 23 December (Argus) — US sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production rose to a record this year, but mounting delays for policy clarity may send volumes abroad or force producers to dial back output in 2026. SAF output rose to an all-time high of 196mn USG through November of this year compared to 39mn USG in all of 2024, according to US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) data. But growth next year is uncertain as the industry awaits final rules on a new biofuel tax credit, nearly a year after the US issued preliminary guidance. The Inflation Reduction Act's 40B SAF tax credit expired after 2024, ending a minimum $1.25/USG subsidy for producers and blenders of a fuel that produces half as many emissions as petroleum jet fuel. The move this year to the 45Z tax credit for all types of domestic clean fuel production was always expected to be rocky — in part because stricter carbon intensity rules left most types of SAF with less of a tax break than in 2024 — but the market also has been hurt by delayed final rules. The US government now expects to issue final regulations in the second quarter of 2026, though interim guidance could come sooner. Nonetheless, producers have begun selling 45Z credits at a discount to the book value of the credit. With producers looking for the market to rebound after a year of depressed margins and a drop in SAF values, this revenue stream is expected to become more common in future years but will still hinge on policy certainty. In a similar fashion, EPA expects to finalize new biofuel blend mandates in the first quarter next year, another delayed regulatory program affecting SAF margins. While jet fuel is not obligated under the program like conventional gasoline and diesel, SAF generates a D4 RIN that is used by refiners to show compliance with the EPA's standards. These RINs over the last five trading days were valued at about $1.08/RIN for credits with 2026 vintage . One USG of SAF generates 1.6 RIN credits, a substantial source of revenue for SAF producers and importers alike. EPA in a June proposal signaled a significant increase in the blending mandate in the category satisfied by D4 RINs. If EPA finalizes similarly ambitious quotas, it would support D4 prices and give SAF producers a boost in offering their product at a more competitive price. At the state level, multiple jurisdictions offer tax credits geared toward rewarding producers and airlines that increase SAF usage. The one that has made the most difference in boosting SAF demand is Illinois' $1.50/USG airline tax credit for SAF use. Minnesota has a similar policy. Washington, Nebraska and, most recently, Arkansas have enacted incentives available to SAF producers within their states. But those states have not produced any SAF that is not co-processed with petroleum fuel and they have no facilities being commissioned, according to Argus estimates. Uncertainty over federal policy continues to act as a roadblock for SAF producers looking to develop, finance, and bring their products to market in a timely and efficient way. The oldest tenured US producer of SAF, World Energy's facility in Torrance, California, was idled in July following a reorganization of refining assets. Industry newcomer XCF Global's plant in Reno, Nevada, is producing only renewable diesel, not SAF as originally planned, at least through 2025, spurred by difficult market conditions and lower demand. Given the absence of European-style SAF mandates in the US, domestic airlines are focused on meeting their minimum SAF usage goals at the lowest possible cost. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump's attacks on climate change policy has eroded industry-wide SAF demand. SAF prices reached all time lows in December, valued as low as $3.52/USG in the US west coast. But that's still a considerable premium to petroleum jet fuel, meaning uptake will be limited in the US absent new policies. If final incentives are delayed further, and new state policies do not make up the difference, US SAF producers could have reason to send their fuel abroad. And if arbitrage opportunities fail to materialize, producers may dial back production or pivot to production of other renewable fuels. By Matthew Cope Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Policy is key for Cop 30 sustainable fuels pledge
Policy is key for Cop 30 sustainable fuels pledge
London, 23 December (Argus) — A UN Cop 30 climate summit pledge, known as "Belem 4x", to quadruple "sustainable fuels" use over 2024-35 has so far drawn 27 signatories, including major biofuels producers and consumers. But such a substantial increase could face constraints, including feedstock and land availability, and will depend on supportive legislation. The signatories pledged at Cop 30 to "expand sustainable fuels use globally by at least four times by 2035 from 2024 levels", including by "adopting ambitious national policies". Sustainable fuels, in the context of the pledge, refers to liquid biofuels, biogases, "low-emissions hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels", according to energy watchdog the IEA. The pledge follows an IEA report in October developed for the Cop 30 presidency, which found that a fourfold increase "is ambitious yet achievable". Under the IEA scenario, liquid and gaseous biofuels would meet around two-thirds of sustainable fuel demand in 2030, while hydrogen and hydrogen-derived fuels would "expand rapidly" after 2030. Cop 30 host Brazil proposed the pledge in September , based on the IEA's preliminary findings, and the commitment was launched with India, Italy and Japan at the pre-Cop event in Brasilia, Brazil in October. The pledge now has 27 signatories from Latin and North America, Asia, Africa and Europe, encompassing sustainable fuels producers and consumers. Canada, Indonesia, Mexico and the Netherlands are among the signatories. The pledge "sends an important political signal: scaling up sustainable fuels is not only necessary for climate goals, but feasible", the European Waste-based and Advanced Biofuels Association (Ewaba) told Argus . "Europe's biodiesel sector shows how sustainable biofuels can strengthen energy security, reduce import dependence and deliver immediate climate benefits using existing vehicles and fuel infrastructure," Ewaba added. Rising demand Sustainable fuels are typically used in transport sectors, which are among the highest-emitting, particularly in advanced economies. Although transport electrification is expanding, it is typically not moving fast enough to hit climate targets in line with the Paris Agreement, while shipping and aviation will require multiple decarbonisation solutions. Hydrogen and related fuels are also likely to see uptake from industry and power generation. Global demand for sustainable fuels doubled over 2010-24, and is already expected to grow this decade, boosted by policies designed to drive emissions reductions and support energy security. Conversely, the removal of tax credits for electric vehicles in the US, and recent weakening of the EU target for zero-emission cars are also likely to support increased biofuels consumption. The full implementation of existing and announced policies and targets, "plus the removal of market barriers, could lead to a near-doubling of sustainable fuel use in just six years", the IEA said. This could attract investment for new production capacity, it added. It also recommended prioritising infrastructure and supply chain development, as well as innovation funds for new technologies. The IEA found that sustainable fuels could cover 10pc of road transport demand, 15pc of aviation demand and 35pc of shipping fuel demand by 2035 — although it would "vary widely" by region. In an accelerated case, the IEA found that liquid biofuels could provide 8.07EJ in energy in 2030, up by 62pc from 2024 levels. The picture shifts by 2035 in the scenario, with biogas supply more than doubling and low-emissions hydrogen more than quadrupling, both from 2030. Land-use concerns But a near-term focus on increased biofuels production sparked concerns from several organisations about feedstock availability and the land conversion implications. "Such a massive uptake in biofuels could have calamitous consequences for the environment and climate, depending on how this pledge is interpreted," European non-governmental organisation (NGO) Transport & Environment (T&E) said. It flagged land cleared for crops such as palm oil, soy, sugarcane and corn. T&E projections show that "under current growth trends and policies, 90pc of biofuels will still be reliant on food and feed crops by 2030." The IEA noted "limited" expansion opportunities for biofuels from waste oils and fats, while it recommended improving crop yields for other feedstocks. But climate change is likely to hamper crop output. The UN Environment Programme warned recently that under a ‘business as usual' pathway, land degradation "is expected to continue at current rates, with the world losing fertile and productive land the size of Ethiopia or Colombia annually". Cop pledges often aim to drive an existing trend faster, and this is typically evident in the signatories — a coalition of the willing. Brazil has vast ethanol production capacity and strong domestic consumption mandates, like India, while another signatory, Chile, is forging ahead with renewable hydrogen production. The pledges, like all climate action, rely on strong policy, but commitment from key countries is more likely to achieve results. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Viewpoint: Rising premium base oil supply to target EU
Viewpoint: Rising premium base oil supply to target EU
London, 23 December (Argus) — European premium base oil spot prices could face downwards pressure in 2026 from increased competition as global supply rises and import duties are removed. Average Group II European spot prices have fallen steadily since the end of April, by 14pc to €932.50/t assessed on 12 December. This is mostly owing to muted demand but exacerbated by a weakening US dollar against the euro as volumes are bought on a dollar basis and sold in euros in Europe. A persistent supply overhang from the US saw exporters increasingly target European buyers. This trend looks to continue into 2026 as the EU looks to remove a 3.7pc import duty on US Group II shipments. This is part of EU-US tariff negotiations, with EU states showing broad support for the duty removal of a large package of US goods, including base oils. A European parliament vote on this is slated to take place, probably in late January. Europe is a net importer of Group II base oils, with ExxonMobil's 1mn t/yr refinery in Rotterdam the only northwest European production site. Base oil and finished lubricants exports to the EU and UK made up on average 14pc of US total exports since 2020, EIA data show. Freight rates will again play a part in deciding how much product arrives in Europe in 2026. Rates from the US to Europe have been falling since the summer. Argus assessed 40,000t specialised chemical tankers on the route at an average $38.08/t in October, down by 15pc from August, and 5,000t part-cargo assessed rates fell by 10pc in the same time to average $69.50/t. Should rates continue to fall and the EU remove duties, US shipments to Europe are likely to increase. European prices are the highest globally. Supplies of N600 are at a $463.50/t premium to US equivalents and at a $404.50/t premium to Asia bulk, as assessed on 12 December. Global Group II production is likely to rise in 2026. Polish refiner Orlen will expand its Gdansk facility with an additional 450,000 t/yr, Saudi Arabia's Luberef will expand its Yanbu refinery by 100,000 t/yr, and ExxonMobil's Jurong, Singapore, plant expansion is slated to come online fully by year-end 2025. All these will probably target the highest price region, Europe, for their additional capacity. Spot prices for Group I are also ending 2025 on a downwards trend, as weak demand offsets structurally tighter supply. But this could reverse in early 2026. Orlen will undergo a refinery-wide maintenance for 60 days in the first quarter, affecting output at its 250,000 t/yr Group I unit at Gdansk. EU sanctions on refined products using Russian crude has seen diesel prices rise. The price spread of the premiums Group I SN 150 and diesel carry over the feedstock vacuum gasoil (VGO) narrowed to average $95/t in November, from $233/t in August. Should this continue refiners are likely to prioritise diesel output over base oils. Several European refiners are already pivoting away from base oil production, curbing supply availability and adding upward price pressure. But minimal scheduled maintenances in 2026 is likely to enable supply to recover, and a weak economic outlook should see demand remaining steady. By Gabriella Twining Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.