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11/12/25

Supply surplus masks regional market tightness: IEA

Supply surplus masks regional market tightness: IEA

London, 11 December (Argus) — A large global oil surplus is masking regional tightness in crude and products markets, the IEA said today. In its final Oil Market Report (OMR) for 2025, the IEA said oil prices have only fallen modestly despite the large supply overhang because of "diverging dynamics" across crude, NGLs and products in different regions. This disconnect "notably reflects the high share of exports subject to sanctions (15pc of crude and 11pc of products), lengthening of supply routes and a tight refining system," it said. The IEA's global oil supply and demand balances imply a 3mn b/d supply surplus in the fourth quarter of 2025, and more than 3.8mn b/d in 2026. While oil on water has been rising and inventories building in China — global observed inventories rose by 1.4mn b/d in October, to a four-year high, and preliminary data show a further increase in November — there has been a notable absence of stock builds in key Atlantic basin pricing hubs, the IEA said, which is supporting prices and keeping crude futures in backwardation. In products markets, refinery outages and a coming EU ban on imports of products derived from Russia crude has led to three-year high refining margins in November, the IEA said. This trend could continue in 2026 given "limited spare refining capacity outside of China." The IEA said NGLs are increasingly comprising a large share of the overall liquids supply surplus, limiting the overhang's effect on crude prices. The IEA upgraded its 2025 consumption growth forecast by 50,000 b/d to 830,000 b/d, based on an improving macroeconomic outlook and subsiding anxieties about trade tariffs. This would bring overall demand in 2025 to 103.92mn b/d. The IEA's first oil demand growth forecast for 2025, made in April 2024, had consumption growing by 1.15mn b/d. The IEA also upgraded its 2026 demand growth forecast by 90,000 b/d to 860,000 b/d, which would bring total demand to 104.79mn b/d. The IEA lowered its supply growth projection for 2025 by 100,000 b/d to 3.05mn b/d and for 2026 by 30,000 b/d to 2.45mn b/d. These were mainly because of disruptions to supplies in sanctioned countries such as Russia and Venezuela, the IEA said. This leaves supply forecast at 106.18mn b/d in 2025 and 108.63mn bd in 2026. The IEA said Russia's crude output fell by 210,000 b/d in November to 9mn b/d, which is 500,000 b/d below its Opec+ target for the month. Russia's oil exports fell by about 400,000 b/d in November to 6.9mn b/d, "as buyers assessed the implications and risks associated with more stringent sanctions." Venezuela's crude output fell by 150,000 b/d to 860,000 b/d "as sanctions and rising geopolitical tensions with the US limited the country's ability to market its oil," the IEA said. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Japanese, Chinese firms partner on marine biodiesel


11/12/25
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11/12/25

Japanese, Chinese firms partner on marine biodiesel

Tokyo, 11 December (Argus) — Japanese shipping firm Mitsui OSK Lines (Mol), trading house Marubeni and Chinese state-controlled fuel supplier Sinopec Zhejiang Zhoushan Petroleum have signed an initial agreement to establish a long-term supply chain for marine biodiesel. Sinopec and Marubeni will ensure a stable supply of biodiesel and develop infrastructure infrastructures including ports to store, deliver and supply the fuel, Mol said said on 11 December. Meanwhile, the Japanese shipping firm will use the biodiesel that Sinopec and Marubeni procure in China. China is a key supplier of biodiesel feedstocks, and Marubeni holds the largest share in marine fuel sales to Japanese shipowners in China, Mol said. Biodiesel is a "drop-in" fuel, which is compatible with existing engines on vessels. Mol considers biodiesel as key to significantly cutting CO2 emissions, given that it aims to cut greenhouse gas emissions from its transportation by 45pc in 2035 compared with 2019 levels, before achieving net-zero emissions in 2050. By Kohei Yamamoto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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N Zealand's gas output falls for 8th quarter in Jul-Sep


11/12/25
News
11/12/25

N Zealand's gas output falls for 8th quarter in Jul-Sep

Sydney, 11 December (Argus) — New Zealand's July-September gas production fell on the year for the eighth consecutive quarter, diverging from industrial gas demand, while gasoline imports rose and crude production dropped, data from the country's business, innovation and employment ministry (MBIE) show. Net gas production fell by 16pc on the year to 25.5PJ (681mn m³) in July-September, down from 30.2PJ a year earlier, data from the MBIE's New Zealand Energy Quarterly show. The country's gas stocks also fell by 2.4PJ over the same period, indicating a drawdown of inventories. New Zealand's conservative government also launched a procurement process for an LNG import terminal in October. Industrial users consumed 10.3PJ of gas over the quarter, up by 14pc on the year, largely because of the restart of Canadian methanol producer Methanex's 1.72mn t/yr Motunui plant. Methanex idled its plant in August–October 2024 and May–early July 2025 to support gas-fired power generation. The site has operated normally since then. New Zealand's gas-fired electricity generation fell in July-September. Utilities burned 7PJ over the quarter, down from 9.2PJ a year earlier, because of strong renewable generation. The country's hydroelectric and geothermal generation rose by 23pc and 6.5pc on the year, respectively. New Zealand's gasoline imports rose by 7.4pc on the year in July-September (see table). New Zealand also restarted oil and gas exploration in September , and extended permits for the 5,600 b/d Maari oil field for a decade in August. By Avinash Govind New Zealand energy production and imports b/d Jul-Sep '25 Apr-Jun '25 Jul-Sep '24 q-o-q ± % y-o-y ± % Gasoline imports 49,972 50,531 46,516 -1.1 7.4 Diesel imports 65,093 67,306 61,411 -3.3 6 Jet fuel imports 28,406 28,923 28,884 -1.8 -1.7 Natural Gas Liquids (NGL) 15,056 13,954 15,687 7.9 -4 Gas production (PJ) 26 26 30 -0.9 -16 Source: New Zealand's Ministry of Business, Innnovation and Employement Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US fuel groups eye compromise in E15 talks


10/12/25
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10/12/25

US fuel groups eye compromise in E15 talks

New York, 10 December (Argus) — Major US fuel groups agree on the framework for a bill that would authorize a higher ethanol blend in gasoline and revamp a separate program requiring biofuel blending. But there is more work ahead before a final deal can be reached, sources told Argus . The American Petroleum Institute withdrew support earlier this year for a slimmer bill allowing year-round sale of gasoline blends with 15pc ethanol (E15), kickstarting a new round of negotiations. The group has since been pitching the White House and biofuel groups on a larger bill that would both allow E15 and restrict small refiners' ability to skirt biofuel quotas. The oil group, ethanol advocates and fuel retailers last week publicly endorsed the general framework of a bill to allow year-round E15 and limit small refinery blending exemptions, and negotiations are ongoing. The issue has the attention of President Donald Trump, who asked a farmer at a White House event this week if E15 would be "a big deal". The US requires oil companies to annually blend biofuels, while allowing small refiners to seek hardship exemptions. Sales of ethanol blends above 10pc are limited in the summer due to smog rules. Whether the groups can compromise and persuade Congress to act will shape crop demand, biofuel production margins and retail fuel prices in the coming years. Past proposals to legalize E15 year-round, a longtime priority for the ethanol industry, have failed. The idea The American Petroleum Institute's pitch for reining in exemptions is to reduce the number of eligible companies and to make it harder for them to prove distress, according to five people familiar with the group's lobbying. A Trump administration plan that would require refiners without exemptions to blend more biofuels to compensate for refiners with exemptions has raised the stakes of the debate and riled larger oil companies. The oil group has floated restricting exemptions to companies with limited collective refining capacity, excluding larger enterprises like Delek that own multiple smaller units. The group has also proposed scrapping a Department of Energy hardship scoring system that has yielded unpredictable results over the years and that a 2022 Government Accountability Office study found was "critically flawed". Instead, refiners would have to prove that hardship stems directly from the biofuel program, and regulators could offer "proportional" exemptions based on the evidence, three of the people said. The US currently waives either all or half of the blend mandates for refiners that prove hardship. The Trump administration this year granted dozens of requests for exemptions from prior-year mandates, and more petitions are pending. More work ahead While these ideas address longstanding concerns from biofuel and crop groups that waivers curb demand for their products, the American Petroleum Institute also wants to permanently bar regulators from requiring other oil companies offset biofuel volumes lost to exemptions — a tougher sell in the Farm Belt. Another concern is timing. The American Petroleum Institute initially pushed for the exemption changes and ban on redistributing biofuel obligations to take effect next year. But some energy lobbyists want a delay until 2028, fearing that immediate changes could delay the Trump administration's work to finalize new biofuel blend mandates, three people said. New quotas for 2026 and 2027 are already late. Oil interests outside the American Petroleum Institute could also push back if negotiations advance. Refiners so far have been divided. Some want to protect their ability to win lucrative exemptions, while others have long taken issue with special rules for their competitors and hotly oppose Trump's plan to make them blend more biofuels to compensate. Even if the groups reach a deal, convincing Congress is its own challenge. An E15 proposal last year was pulled out of a larger spending package at the last minute , and farm-state lawmakers have been unsuccessful more recently in their efforts to add E15 to a defense bill. One option lobbyists have eyed is adding any new E15 agreement to legislation to fund the government after 30 January. The Renewable Fuels Association, which represents ethanol producers, said that it "continues to have serious discussions with multiple stakeholder groups and we are encouraged by the progress of those conversations". The American Petroleum Institute and ethanol industry group Growth Energy declined to comment. The Environmental Protection Agency said it is "committed to strengthening American energy security and supporting American farmers" but noted that changing rules around E15 and small refinery exemptions "requires an act of Congress". It is not clear how much more ethanol drivers would burn if the US permitted year-round E15. Most gas stations do not currently offer the blend, which advocates blame on regulatory hurdles deterring retailers from investing in new infrastructure. Rising vehicle fuel efficiency and electric vehicle sales have also cut into liquid fuel demand. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Netherlands slashes 2026 biomarine mandate


10/12/25
News
10/12/25

Netherlands slashes 2026 biomarine mandate

London, 10 December (Argus) — The Netherlands' government will cut GHG reduction mandates for international maritime and inland shipping supplies from the proposed draft earlier this year , according to a communication from the ministry of infrastructure and water management sent to market participants and seen by Argus , citing delays in Belgian transposition causing concerns of an uneven playing field for fuel suppliers. The statement confirmed that the new renewable energy directive (RED) III mandates will come into effect on 1 January, and will apply retroactively from that date if passed later. Maritime fuel suppliers will be subject to a 2.9pc GHG reduction target in 2026 compared with 3.6pc initially, 0.9pc of which will be a flexible credit allowance that can be fulfilled by overcompliance in other sectors. The inland shipping obligation will be reduced to a 2.5pc greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction target from a previously announced 3.8pc, with 0.5pc flexible credit allowance. The statement added that obligations from 2027 onwards will apply as previously announced in the draft bill. The previously announced ban on 9B feedstocks for international maritime is to remain in place, with the Netherlands to explore whether the overall Annex 9B biofuels cap can be increased to create leeway. Despite an initial agreement between Belgium and the Netherlands to align on marine targets under RED III, some divergence has already emerged as the Netherlands will treat 9B feedstock biofuels as fossil volumes under the maritime obligation — while Belgium may count such volumes as zero when calculating the overall fuel supply. Initial reactions from market participants pointed to expectations of some marine fuels demand shifting from Dutch ports towards neighbouring ports, as the German cabinet passed a version of RED III legislation today that excludes international maritime from the country's targets. Belgium has also yet to finalise its RED III transposition, with updates to come following the conclusion of a public consultation on 14 November. By Hussein Al-Khalisy Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.