European Bitumen Market Update July 2024

Cut aviation emissions for Heathrow expansion: UK’s CCC

London, 15 September (Argus) — There is "no credible pathway" for a proposed Heathrow airport expansion that would meet UK climate commitments, unless the government sets policy to ensure the aviation industry reaches net zero emissions by 2050, the parliamentary advisory Climate Change Committee (CCC) said today. "Heathrow expansion is not currently compatible with the UK's net zero target. Government needs to ensure that the aviation industry takes responsibility for the emissions it creates and bears the costs of decarbonisation", CCC chair Nigel Topping said. The government should require the aviation industry to abate 100pc of emissions by 2050 before consenting the proposed Heathrow expansion, the CCC said. The aviation sector could reduce its emissions through "greater efficiency and managing demand growth", the CCC said. But "these can only go so far", so sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and engineered greenhouse gas (GHG) removals will also be needed, the committee found. It warned that nature-based removals "are not suitable for offsetting residual aviation emissions because they lack the permanence needed to match very long-lived CO2 emissions". The CCC set out a pathway through which the aviation industry could reach net zero emissions by 2050, incorporating the polluter pays principle. Industry would foot the bill for SAF and engineered removals, "which are assumed to be passed onto ticket prices", the CCC said. The committee warned on SAF and engineered GHG removals, flagging that "there remains uncertainty around their deployment at scale on the timelines required". The government should ensure "contingency policies to allow for delays", the CCC added. Heathrow, west of London, is the UK's largest airport. It accounts for nearly a quarter of UK flights and around half of UK aviation emissions, the CCC said. UK civil aviation emissions are provisionally estimated at 37.2mn t/CO2 equivalent (CO2e) in 2025, it found. Aviation is the UK's fifth-highest emitting sector. Heathrow aims to secure planning permission by 2029 for its expansion plans, which includes building a third runway. The planned expansion would not be complete until 2054. Non-governmental organisation T&E found this week that "cumulative extra emissions from a third Heathrow runway between 2035 and 2050 would be equivalent to a full year of emissions from Croatia's entire economy". The UK government requested advice from the CCC on the Heathrow expansion. The UK has a legally-binding target to reach net zero GHG emissions by 2050. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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New York ULSD hits record high on Saudi outage: Update

New York ULSD hits record high on Saudi outage: Update

Adds Urkaine strike on Russian refinery in final pragraphs Houston, 15 September (Argus) — A widening Mideast Gulf conflict and mounting supply concerns propelled New York diesel prices to record highs on Tuesday. The October Nymex ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) contract settled at a record $5.2620/USG, up by 30¢/USG on the day. Because the contract serves as the pricing basis for US distillates, including diesel, heating oil and jet fuel, the rally pushed New York diesel cash prices to all-time highs. New York Harbor (NYH) barge ULSD closed at $5.36/USG, surpassing the previous record set in April 2022. Colonial offline ULSD delivered into Linden, New Jersey, climbed to $5.31/USG, also the highest on record. NYH barge ultra-low sulfur heating oil (ULHS) traded at October Nymex -16.50¢/USG, a gain of 2¢/USG. This helped cash prices ramp up to $5.10/USG, rising by more than 32¢/USG to a four-year high. The market focused on how long it will take to restore Saudi Arabia's 7mn b/d East-West crude pipeline after attacks forced the key export route off line, sources said Monday. State-controlled Saudi Aramco shut the pipeline on 10 September following attacks that Riyadh said originated in Iraq. The pipeline has become increasingly important for exports since the US-Iran war disrupted seaborne crude shipments through the strait of Hormuz. One market source said repairs are likely to take weeks rather than days, while another estimated the outage could last up to a month. Adding to diesel supply concerns, Ukrainian drones struck Russian state-controlled Rosneft's 200,000 b/d Syzran refinery on 15 September , according to Ukraine's military general staff. The attack came just one day after US president Donald Trump said he had secured assurances from Kyiv that such strikes would cease. On 13 September, Trump blamed record-high US retail diesel prices on Ukrainian long-range attacks targeting Russian refineries and export infrastructure. However, the more immediate driver of reduced Russian diesel availability has been Moscow's diesel export ban, which remains in effect through 30 September to curb rising domestic fuel prices. By Craig Ross Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

War-driven supply risks widen Asian HSFO time spread

War-driven supply risks widen Asian HSFO time spread

Singapore, 15 September (Argus) — Escalating hostilities in the Middle East have tightened the near-term supply outlook, driving up the Singapore high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) prompt-month time spread to around a six-month high on 14 September. The September-October time spread hit $55/t in backwardation on 14 September, more than doubling from $24.75/t a week ago and its highest level since mid-March, after the US-Iran war started at the end of February. The HSFO October-November time spread also surged to $42.25/t in backwardation on 14 September, from $14.50/t a week ago and marking a four-month high. This comes after state-owned Saudi Aramco shut its 7mn b/d East-West crude pipeline last week, Saudi Arabia's primary conduit for exporting crude since the start of the US-Iran war. Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels also captured the Red Sea port city of Mocha last week, further strengthening their influence over the strategically important Bab el-Mandeb shipping route. These have bolstered concerns of disruptions in HSFO exports from Saudi Arabia. Most HSFO exports from its Red Sea ports typically head north instead of transiting the Bab el-Mandeb strait, but recent developments could still tighten global HSFO supplies, pushing up Asian prices. About 150,000t of HSFO was shipped from Red Sea ports in August, with the cargoes all destined for Egypt's Ain Sukhna, data from global trade analytics firm Kpler show. Market participants also noted that further disruptions to crude supplies will nevertheless have an impact further downstream when Asian refiners face a feedstock crunch, weighing on refinery runs and fuel oil production. The strikes on vessels in the strait of Hormuz also continue to drive up HSFO supply risks, further undermining confidence in transit through the strait. For example, market participants are now unsure if loadings will still proceed for Saudi Aramco's latest HSFO sale. It recently awarded a tender to sell HSFO on a dap Singapore basis, for loading over 10-20 September and 21-30 September from Jubail. This could be its first time offering this delivery option, market participants said. This is in addition to last week's strike on the New Andros , a tanker carrying Iraqi HSFO, according to market participants. Iraqi state-controlled refiner Somo had previously offered HSFO via ship-to-ship transfer from floating tanks via a tender, with the document naming the New Andros as one of the designated vessels. The status of the ship could not be confirmed, but traders suggested that the damage could be minor and the cargo is intact. Somo has also recently started offering HSFO for loading near Oman's Sohar terminal, outside the strait of Hormuz, with the first such cargo to load in September, and participants are watching to see if the cargoes make it through. No respite in sight Meanwhile, alternative HSFO sources remain limited. Volumes from key supplier Russia remain constrained by the ongoing conflict there, with exports continuing to fall in August . Volumes were at around 610,000-625,000 b/d in August, Kpler and Vortexa data show, much lower than the 900,000-1mn b/d a year earlier. Russian exports are likely to remain under pressure if Ukrainian forces continue to target Russian refining infrastructure. US president Donald Trump claimed on 15 September that Ukraine has consented to his request to stop attacking Russian energy infrastructure , but whether this materialises remains to be seen. On the demand side, Chinese refiners have also become increasingly interested in using high-sulphur straight-run fuel oil (HSSRFO) as feedstock, given crude shortages and high crude prices. Chinese HSSR demand could be at around 500,000-700,000 t/month in July-August, according to estimates from market participants, with one suggesting this could even rise up to 1mn t/month in October. Overall, the recent rally in HSFO time spreads reflects growing concerns over the availability of prompt cargoes as Middle East supply risks escalate and Russian exports remain constrained, while Chinese feedstock demand stays firm. But the HSFO east-west spread has also been widening, which could signal the arrival of more arbitrage volumes into the fourth quarter, likely from Latin America. By Tng Yong Li Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Dangote launches 700,000 b/d Nigeria refinery IPO

Dangote launches 700,000 b/d Nigeria refinery IPO

Lagos, 14 September (Argus) — Nigeria's Dangote 700,000 b/d Lekki refinery launched its initial public offering (IPO) earlier today to partly finance its expansion to 1.4mn b/d, offering 4.1bn shares at 525 naira/share (40¢/share). Over N10bn worth of offers for Dangote refinery shares were received in the first hour of trading, group chairman of the Nigerian Exchange Group Umaru Kwairanga said. The Dangote refinery IPO is scheduled to end on 13 October. Dangote Group chair Aliko Dangote said that the original plan for the refinery expansion plan was to raise $1bn through private placement and $1.5bn through the IPO, but the private placement received bids worth $3.7bn and was closed at $2.5bn. The debt component of finance for the $14.3bn expansion has already been raised, Dangote said. He said today that foundation piling at the Lekki refinery expansion site has started, while refinery chief executive David Bird provided a project timeline that shows the expansion pushed back to 2030, from end-2029 . Bird said Lekki generated revenues of $13.9bn in the first half of this year, "more than the entirety of 2025". Profit in January-June was $1.8bn, reflecting "a period of low margins, normal margins and also a period of maintenance". The crude distillation unit (CDU) and residual fluid catalytic cracker (RFCC) were offline in parts of January and February, Bird said. Margins have improved in the second half of the year and the CDU run rate was 105pc of capacity in August, he added. Lekki will be Europe's largest single supplier of jet fuel for the third month running, according to Bird. The Dangote Group's plan to expand the Lekki refinery's capacity to 1.4mn b/d is part of a wider $46bn programme that includes a new 700,000 b/d refinery in coastal Kenya and a two-train 12mn t/yr natural gas liquefaction plant in Nigeria. Construction of the 700,000 b/d Lamu refinery in Kenya will start on 30 September and should last three years, Dangote said today, narrowing down a previous timeline. The expansion programme also plans to deliver additional petrochemicals capacity at Lekki. Polypropylene production should increase from 830,000 t/yr to 2.4mn t/yr. Linear alkyl benzene production capacity of 400,000 t/yr is to be introduced. "Additional base oil production capacity also forms part of the broader expansion programme", and "urea production capacity in Nigeria will be tripled from 3mn to 9mn t/yr, in addition to the 3mn t/yr capacity [being built] in Ethiopia", Dangote said in a statement previously sent to Argus . Dangote, in addition to feedgas pipelines for its planned LNG plant, also plans to build export facilities for its LPG, which it currently sells into Nigeria's domestic market exclusively. The company previously said at a 650,000 b/d run rate it could produce about 912,500 t/yr of LPG. Dangote Group also plans to start crude oil production through upstream subsidiary WAEP from Nigeria's shallow-water OMLs 71 and 72 after several years of delay . Two projects to support market access for Dangote refineries' output will see construction start next month, according to Dangote Group. A 2,650km oil products pipeline will be constructed to run from Namibia through Botswana to South Africa. The planned pipeline will link up with another that runs through Zimbabwe and Zambia to terminate in Congo (Kinshasa). An oil products port and storage terminal in coastal Somalia with a connecting pipeline to additional storage in landlocked Ethiopia is the second project. By Adebiyi Olusolape Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Hormuz oversight meeting postponed: Update