由行业专家做出的价格预测及前瞻性研究
独立的国际能源及大宗商品价格评估机构
提供有关影响全球能源及大宗商品市场的动态与分析
中东冲突——能源市场风险与大宗商品影响
中东局势升级下的全球大宗商品市场：供应链与价格重构
直播时间：2026年3月12日（周四）14:00 （回看已生成）
会议语言：中文（运费部分英文）
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Opec+ 7 agree another output target hike in August
Opec+ 7 agree another output target hike in August
London, 5 July (Argus) — Seven core Opec+ members have decided to raise their crude production targets further in August as they prepare the ground to significantly boost output following the interim deal to end the US-Iran war. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman agreed on Sunday to implement another 188,000 b/d increase to their collective crude production ceiling in August. This leaves just 188,000 b/d of voluntary cuts in place, which could be fully unwound in September. The decision marks the fifth increase since the start of the US-Iran war on 28 February, which prompted Tehran to severely disrupt shipping through the strait of Hormuz and forced Mideast Gulf producers, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait, to implement unprecedented output reductions. Argus estimates that crude production from these three countries in May was close to 8.5mn b/d below their cumulative target at roughly 8.7mn b/d. Overall Opec+ output in May was down 9.6mn b/d from the level before the war began. But the relaxation of targets over the past few months could see the group exceed their pre-war output once flows through the strait of Hormuz normalise. The US-Iran interim deal on 17 June has already led to a pick-up in transits through the strait and allowed Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait to restore some of their output. Further gains will depend on whether shipping through the waterway continues to recover and how the US-Iran peace talks evolve over the next few weeks. The seven Opec+ members are next scheduled to meet next on 2 August. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Transalloys shuts down S Africa’s last Mn smelter
Transalloys shuts down S Africa’s last Mn smelter
London, 3 July (Argus) — South African manganese alloy producer Transalloys has ceased all production at its last remaining smelter in the country because of an inability to compete caused by high-rate electricity tariffs, the company said on Thursday. The silico-manganese and ferro-manganese producer shut down all furnaces on 1 July, as negotiations over electricity tariffs with energy utility Eskom and the South African government's Department of Energy and Electricity (DEE) continued. Transalloys is a major producer of manganese ferro-alloys across Africa, accounting for about 80pc of the world's high-grade manganese ore reserves and 155,000 t/yr of alloy output. Halted production and the potential permanent closure of the smelter would significantly hit customers who rely on South African alloy supply. The suspension of the smelter places about 600 permanent jobs and an estimated 7,000 downstream livelihoods at risk. Transalloys officially concluded Section 189 consultations and a collective retrenchment agreement, based on the plant's financial distress since the end of 2022. Transalloys will continue negotiations with Eskom to achieve a sustainable solution until 31 July, when the retrenchment notice will be issued. Rising energy tariffs in South Africa over the past three years have weighed on ferro-alloy producers and driven persistent financial losses at smelters that have been unable to offset higher rates through significant price increases to customers. "In the past 3½ years, Transalloys' production was curtailed due to sluggish demand globally," chief executive Konstantin Sadovnik told Argus . The shutdown follows Transalloys' hardship notice to Eskom and Nersa, South Africa's national energy regulator, in December, through which it sought short-term relief from the electricity tariffs. Since then, the ferro-chrome industry has secured reduced tariff rates after ongoing discussions with Eskom and has been granted intermediary reduced tariff solutions. "What we do not understand is why that same blueprint cannot now be extended to the remaining non-ferro-chrome smelters, namely manganese and ferro-silicon, representing only 11pc of the ferro-alloys sector in terms of power consumption," Sadovnik said. Glencore Merafe Chrome Venture, one of South Africa's two main ferro-chrome producers, secured a new pricing framework set for three years. "Now that the framework exists, it is difficult to understand why the rest of the sector continues to face lengthy negotiations with no certainty or timeline," Sadovnik said. "It has been a tough uphill battle," Sadovnik added. "Our business has been losing substantial amounts of money for the past 3½ years. We have done everything possible to reduce costs, conserve cash, raise awareness and engage government, Eskom and the regulators to find and implement a sustainable electricity tariff solution. Now, effectively, our destiny is in the hands of Eskom, Nersa and DEE — they are to determine whether Transalloys lives or dies. Further procrastination will amount to a death sentence." By Lauren Hadeed Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Airlines could buy more Corsia credits, then SAF: Panel
Airlines could buy more Corsia credits, then SAF: Panel
Singapore, 3 July (Argus) — Airlines could buy more carbon credits to meet their near-term decarbonisation targets and increase their sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) purchases in later years when prices fall, said panelists at the MyAero Sustainable Aviation APAC Symposium in Putrajaya, Malaysia, over 30 June-2 July. "As sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is so much more expensive today, we probably need a greater share of credits to address aviation emissions' impact, and a smaller share of SAF to lay the foundations for greater use in future," said Puar Si Liang, vice-president of Singapore-based investment platform GenZero. "But when we get to 2050, a huge chunk of aviation decarbonisation should be addressed by SAF, and carbon credits used for the residual emissions," he added. Some volume of carbon credits is still needed to address residual emissions even under International Civil Association Organization's (ICAO) most aggressive long-term aspirational goal (LTAG) Fuel Scenario 3 for aviation emissions reduction, given that SAF and low-carbon aviation fuels will not be able to reduce all of it, Puar said. Buyers are often purchasing carbon credits instead of SAF because they can fulfil obligations and are a fraction of what SAF costs, founder and managing director of commercial advisory firm Stratx, Izabela Santos, said. Stratx is involved in live SAF offtake negotiations, and works with project developers, investors, airlines and other stakeholders to help SAF projects reach final investment decisions (FID). Argus assessed the spot price for the ICAO's Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (Corsia) Phase 1 credits at $9.30/t CO2e on 2 July, the lowest levels since the assessment's launch last November — although demand is also likely dampened as end-users await more clarity from the EU's emissions trading system (ETS) review planned for mid-July, where the ETS' scope may be extended to international aviation emissions from departing flights. In comparison, the RED HEFA-SPK-jet/kerosene CO2 abatement Strait of Malacca price — which measures the cost of abating a tonne of CO2e greenhouse gas emissions by consuming SAF rather than jet fuel — stood at around $459/t CO2e on 2 July. Countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) have a pipeline of 100 new projects, which could bring an additional 133mn-302mn Corsia-eligible emissions units into Corsia's second phase running from 2027-35, possibly worth $1.3bn-7bn, according to a report jointly published by aircraft manufacturer Boeing, GenZero, and carbon services firm Abatable, and also announced at the conference. Global demand for Corsia Eligible Emissions Units (EEUs) is estimated at 1.2bn-1.8bn during Corsia's second phase. Not all airlines Credits also align better with airlines' procurement cycles compared with long-term SAF offtake agreements, Santos said. Airlines need to show demand signals, but it is difficult for us to into SAF contracts with fuel suppliers for more than around a year due to price uncertainty, said Japan Airlines' vice-president for promotion of Japan-made SAF Atsushi Kita. "It's also very tricky for us to strategise and decide on the duration of SAF offtakes, due to unstable feedstock prices and recently volatile SAF prices," said Malaysia Airlines' (MAG) head of sustainability Rahimah Ali. "It's a step for airlines — even the strongest of them — to change the well-trodden process of buying fuel 12-24 months out, and to think in the timeframe of a SAF facility, which usually require 15-20 years of guaranteed procurement. That's many years of procurement commitment that sits on your balance sheet as a risk," said chief of ICAO's Finvest hub Robert Boyd. Finvest aims to accelerate the financing of cleaner energy solutions for aviation by connecting various stakeholders, with a focus on SAF. European airlines like KLM and IAG have signed long-term offtake agreements, but this is not seen across the industry yet, Boyd said. Banks will require from SAF project developers a binding level of legal commitment towards SAF purchases, which is hard to achieve, he said, adding that a letter of intent or memorandum of understanding will not be enough. "And colloquially speaking, even if fuel suppliers buy SAF from producers, they will typically just pass on those costs to the airline. Fuel suppliers similarly do not want to lock themselves into 10-15-year agreements especially when the SAF price is expected to fall," Santos said. Competing for now, complementary in future? Carbon credits and SAF compete, Santos said. Not in every case, but to a significant enough degree to impact a SAF project's FID pipeline, she added. "Airlines and fuel suppliers' budgets are finite. If airlines can fulfil decarbonisation obligations at a significantly cheaper price, credits will win every single time — unless there's an external factor changing this calculus. The ability to use credits takes pressure off them to sign offtake agreements, without which no projects will be built — except in China, where it's a different ballgame," Santos said. Of roughly 600 SAF projects announced since 2016, only around 35 are currently operational, Boyd said. Corsia is a compliance cost for airlines, but SAF is still an important decarbonisation lever for them, with more jurisdictions imposing targets, Malaysia Airlines' Rahimah Ali said. Carbon credits and SAF are complementary strategies, with credits enabling airlines to reduce emissions as much as possible within the value chain and SAF for further reductions, GenZero's Puar said. Corsia's phases have an end-date of 2035 but the aviation industry's net-zero emissions goals are by 2050, so the strategy of reaching that should include SAF, which will be better understood by then, ICAO's Boyd said. "If there is the commitment for decarbonisation to be in-sector — meaning areas that airlines can control — SAF will play the leading role in that out to 2050, and perhaps beyond," he added. "And even if we achieve our net-zero by 2050 goals, we still need energy sources to maintain that [status]. Right out, I can see that both Corsia credits and SAF will play a role [in decarbonisation] out till 2100," Boyd said. By Sarah Giam Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Malaysia eyes converting coal sites into renewable hubs
Malaysia eyes converting coal sites into renewable hubs
Singapore, 3 July (Argus) — Malaysia is considering repurposing retiring coal sites into renewable energy hubs and battery storage facilities, deputy prime minister and minister for energy transition and water transformation Fadillah Yusof said on 2 July. Transforming coal sites into clean energy developments is an important consideration for Malaysia's energy transition, Fadillah said at the Malaysia's Energy Future: Power Sector Decarbonisation Deep Dive event organised by the World Economic Forum (WEF), citing a new report by the WEF and Malaysia's energy transition and water transformation ministry (Petra). The Beyond Coal: Building a Flexible, Resilient and Clean Power System for Malaysia report proposes a national coal site repurposing framework, under which retiring coal plants would be repurposed into clean energy hubs, particularly solar and battery energy storage systems (Bess). Repurposing retiring coal sites would maximise the utility of existing land and infrastructure while contributing to system reliability, according to the report. "Rather than allowing these assets to become stranded, we should view them as opportunities to create new economic value," said Fadillah. Fadillah also stressed the need for renewable energy deployment in Malaysia to outpace coal retirements. This will ensure that the country's coal phase-out does not lead to increased imports of LNG and expose Malaysia to price volatility and external geopolitical uncertainties. Malaysia has already begun repurposing coal sites. Malaysian utility Sarawak Energy transformed a unit at its Sejingkat coal plant into a 60MW/82MWh Bess that started operations in 2024, providing a replicable model for future transformations, the report said. The report also suggested fuel blending — such as co-firing biomass with coal — as an interim measure, as well as managing gas use with shorter 15-year power purchase agreements (PPAs) to avoid long-term lock-ins. Advancing the Asean power grid and exploring nuclear power as a long-term alternative to gas were also recommended. Fadillah reiterated Malaysia's commitment not to build new coal-fired power plants and to entirely phase out coal by 2044, as well as its target to achieve a 70pc share of renewables in total installed capacity by 2050. Coal accounted for 52.5pc of Malaysia's energy mix in June, while renewables accounted for 4.7pc, according to data from electricity planning authority Single Buyer. By Ishika Gupta Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
中东局势升级下的全球大宗商品市场：供应链与价格重构
中东局势升级下的全球大宗商品市场：供应链与价格重构
Global rare earths markets in transition
Global rare earths markets in transition
Fundamental challenges for global LPG markets in 2026
Fundamental challenges for global LPG markets in 2026
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