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US says no ships have passed its Iran blockade
US says no ships have passed its Iran blockade
London, 14 April (Argus) — The US navy has allowed no ships to exit Iranian ports during the first 24 hours of the blockade, according to US Central Command (Centcom). "No ships made it past the US blockade and six merchant vessels complied with direction from US forces to turn around to re-enter an Iranian port on the Gulf of Oman," Centcom said. The US began its naval blockade on Monday, 13 April, with the aim to intercept ships leaving Iranian ports or heading to Iran through the strait of Hormuz. This came after US and Iranian officials failed to make a breakthrough in negotiations in Pakistan over the weekend. Centcom said today that the blockade extends along the Iranian coastline, within the Mideast Gulf and in the Gulf of Oman. Ships continued to transit the strait of Hormuz during this period, including several linked to Iran, but US attention instead appears to be focused on a port-by-port blockade rather than on the strait. This could potentially shrink traffic through the strait in the coming days if ships with Iranian cargoes are unable to load or depart. Transit through the strait of Hormuz has been relatively consistent at around 5-10 ships/day in the first half of April, with a high percentage of these being linked to Iran. The Rich Starry , a US-sanctioned Handysize tanker, seemed to pass eastbound through the strait after making a u-turn, then turned around again in the afternoon. By John Ollett Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Europe replacing just 50pc of lost Mideast jet: IEA
Europe replacing just 50pc of lost Mideast jet: IEA
London, 14 April (Argus) — Europe has replaced just over half of the jet fuel supply lost from the Middle East following the US-Iran war and the closure of the strait of Hormuz, leaving the region exposed to possible shortages in the coming months, the IEA said today in its latest Oil Market Report. Current supply trends indicate that jet fuel shortages could emerge at European airports by June. OECD Europe jet fuel inventories typically decline from 37-38 days of forward demand at the start of the year to around 30 days by mid-year, the IEA said. Since 2020, stocks have not averaged below 29 days of cover. The IEA assumes that around 20pc of jet fuel inventories act as an operational cushion that cannot be readily drawn down without disrupting supply systems. On that basis, physical shortages could emerge if inventory cover falls to below 23 days, it said. Airports association ACI Europe warned the European Commission last week that fuel shortages could become a reality within just three weeks. Some European countries hold as little as 20 days of jet fuel inventory, it said. Both ACI Europe and the IEA cautioned that shortages could lead to flight cancellations and demand destruction. The Mideast Gulf typically accounts for a net 75pc of Europe's jet fuel imports. Europe has increased purchases from the US to help offset the loss of Middle Eastern supply. US jet fuel exports reached a record 442,000 b/d in the week to 3 April, according to the US EIA. Three jet fuel cargoes from Nigeria's 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery are also currently en route to Europe, according to Kpler data. But these additional volumes account for just over 50pc of lost Middle Eastern supply at most. "European markets will need to work harder to attract further replacement cargoes from elsewhere if sufficient inventory is to be maintained over the summer months," the IEA said. If Europe replaces around 75pc of lost supply, it should be able to meet peak summer jet fuel demand, although inventories would still fall below the 23-day cover threshold by August, the agency said. Even replacing 90pc of lost volumes would leave the market tightly supplied, with stocks ending 2026 at just 26 days of cover. The UK is the European country most exposed to the disruption , importing around 65pc of its jet fuel demand, according to the IEA. No further jet fuel cargoes heading for Europe have passed through the strait of Hormuz, which normally accounts for around 40pc of the region's jet fuel imports. The final such cargoes discharged last week. Even if the strait were to reopen immediately, crude and product exports would take several months to stabilise , the IEA said. Jet fuel shipments from the US to Europe totalled 366,000t in March, according to Kpler. Imports from the US are set to exceed 450,000t in April — almost double the previous monthly record — based on preliminary data. Independent jet fuel stocks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub fell to a three-year low of 646,000t as of 8 April, down 28pc from a year earlier, according to consultancy Insights Global. The IEA expects global jet fuel output to fall by around 500,000 b/d in the second quarter, as Middle Eastern supply losses combine with refinery run cuts elsewhere caused by tighter crude availability. By Amaar Khan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Iran war prompts IMF to cut growth outlook
Iran war prompts IMF to cut growth outlook
Washington, 14 April (Argus) — The energy supply shock sparked by the US-Israel war against Iran and the uncertainty over the conflict's duration have forced the IMF to change its quarterly outlook for global economy by outlining scenarios that range from bad to worse. Even with a fragile truce in place through 21 April, "some damage is already done, and the downside risks remain elevated," IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said on Tuesday. "The shock's ultimate magnitude will depend on the conflict's duration and scale — and how quickly energy production and shipment normalize once hostilities end." The IMF's World Economic Outlook pegs global growth at 3.1pc in 2026, a downgrade of 0.2 percentage points from its January outlook. The IMF describes this as a "reference forecast", rather than a baseline case, highlighting the unpredictable trajectory of the war. In the reference scenario, disruptions from the shut-in of Mideast Gulf production and the closure of the strait of Hormuz would fade by July. A longer shutdown of the strait of Hormuz and additional damage to Mideast Gulf upstream and refining capacity would result in global growth slowing to 2.5pc this year. In this adverse scenario, oil and gas prices would remain above pre-war levels well into 2027. The most severe scenario analyzed by the IMF, in which oil and gas supply disruption lasts into 2027, would reduce growth this year to 2pc, the IMF said. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
IEA warns Hormuz oil export recovery will take months
IEA warns Hormuz oil export recovery will take months
London, 14 April (Argus) — Oil exports through the strait of Hormuz are likely to take around two months to stabilise once the waterway reopens, the IEA estimates. Disruptions to shipments through the strait due to the US-Iran war have forced producers in the Mideast Gulf to shut in part of their output because of limited alternative export routes. The IEA estimates that the shut-ins cut global oil supply by 10.1mn b/d in March and forecasts a further 2.9mn b/d decline in April. A sustained recovery in production depends on restoring exports through Hormuz. Laden tankers would first need to exit the Gulf, after which empty vessels inside the waterway would load cargoes and draw down stocks, the IEA said. "It will be impossible to start upstream production or refining unless there is a foreseeable loading programme with adequate available storage at ports," the IEA said. Tanker availability could slow that process. Around 390 vessels, including 210 laden tankers, were trapped in the strait when the conflict began on 28 February, the IEA said. Since then, a net 49 tankers have exited. Many ballast tankers waiting outside Hormuz have since moved to other markets, meaning it could take longer for ships to return to pick up the first cargoes once exports resume, the agency added. Iraq may face particular difficulties in restarting exports quickly because of limited storage capacity at its ports. Upstream constraints could further delay a production recovery. Half of Mideast Gulf oil fields have "sufficient reservoir pressure and fluid characteristics" to return to pre-war output within about two weeks once exports resume, rising to 80pc after roughly one month, the IEA said. The remaining 20pc may prove harder to restart because of issues such as "pressure depletion or flow impairment from wax or asphaltene deposition". Many of these more complex fields are in Iraq and Kuwait, the agency said, adding that some lost pre-war production may not return. "Some fields may require specialised oil field services, including workovers, coiled-tubing units, chemical treatments or perforation," the IEA said. Fields relying on secondary or enhanced oil recovery could face longer restart times because they depend on uninterrupted supplies of gas, power, steam and chemicals, the agency added. By Aydin Calik Opec+ crude production declines 'mn b/d Mar Feb Mar vs Feb Saudi Arabia 7.25 10.40 -3.15 Iraq 1.57 4.57 -3.00 Kuwait 1.19 2.54 -1.35 UAE 2.37 3.64 -1.27 Bahrain 0.04 0.18 -0.14 Iran 3.63 3.69 -0.06 source: IEA Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
