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Crude futures surge on reported US navy vessel attack
Crude futures surge on reported US navy vessel attack
Singapore, 4 May (Argus) — Front-month Brent crude futures leapt by more than $5/bl in late afternoon trading in Asia on Monday, on unconfirmed reports that a US navy vessel had been hit by missiles near Iran's Jask island. Two missiles struck a US Navy frigate that was sailing through the strait of Hormuz in violation of Iranian shipping rules, Iran's semi-official Fars news agency reported. There was no immediate confirmation of the incident from US or independent sources. The front-month July Brent contract on the Ice exchange traded as high as $114.30/bl after reports of the attack, up by 5.7pc from the close on 1 May. Futures then dropped back after US news agency Axios quoted an unnamed senior US official as denying any ship had been hit by missiles. The reported attack came after US president Donald Trump on 3 May claimed that the US and Iran have agreed to allow some neutral ships stranded in the Mideast Gulf to leave the region . The US' Project Freedom mission will support merchant vessels seeking to transit through the strait, US Central Command said. It does not appear to involve US naval escorts. Iran has not confirmed any deal. Tehran's military command said today that any navigation through the waterway needed to be carried out in co-ordination with its armed forces. By Kevin Foster Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
UAE calls time on Opec to chart its own path
UAE calls time on Opec to chart its own path
The UAE exit comes on the heels of the Iran war, but Abu Dhabi's decision reflects long-standing differences with Riyadh and within Opec, write Bachar Halabi, Nader Itayim and Aydin Calik Dubai, 4 May (Argus) — The UAE's decision to withdraw from Opec and the wider Opec+ alliance from 1 May does not change current global oil market dynamics, of which the main driver is the crisis sparked by the US-Israel war against Iran. But Abu Dhabi's move raises questions over the future of the producer alliance and relations among Mideast Gulf oil-producing countries. The decision follows a review of the country's production strategy and capacity outlook, with the UAE citing national interest and a need to respond more effectively to global oil demand. Crude flows through the strait of Hormuz have remained constrained for around eight weeks, with exports from Mideast Gulf countries already limited mostly by security considerations. This has turned market dynamics on its head, with the issue today becoming not how much oil producers are willing to supply, but how much they can physically deliver, at what cost and with what degree of reliability. Price volatility is at its highest in years, as the current global energy shock comes on the heels of the Russia-Ukraine war and the economic disruption caused by the Covid-19 pandemic earlier in the decade. The UAE's exit does not materially alter near-term balances, especially since a resolution for safe passage through Hormuz remains elusive as the US and Iran have been unable to reach a political agreement that ends hostilities. But it does reshape the terms under which that balance will be managed once current disruptions ease. Oil markets have, for the better part of the past two decades, operated under a relatively clear framework whereby Opec, and now Opec+, would manage supply to stabilise markets and support global economic growth, adjusting output through co-ordinated quotas in response to demand cycles. The group also acted as a shock absorber during disruptions, relying on spare capacity — primarily held by Saudi Arabia — to smooth volatility. That system is becoming harder to sustain. Rising output from non-Opec producers, the proliferation of sanctions regimes and the expansion of shadow fleets have diluted the effectiveness of co-ordinated supply management. At the same time, geopolitical disruptions are becoming more frequent and less predictable, reducing the market visibility on which quota systems depend. Capacity builder Abu Dhabi has expanded crude production capacity steadily in recent years. The UAE says it is capable of producing 4.85mn b/d this year and has set a target of 5mn b/d by 2027, with plans to go even higher thereafter, with state-owned Adnoc approving a $150bn capital expenditure plan for 2026–30 to accelerate growth in oil, gas and chemicals. At the same time, the UAE has viewed itself as one of the most constrained members of Opec+ in relative terms. That imbalance has been partially addressed in recent years through successive upward revisions to its baseline under Opec+ agreements. This year, Opec+ also agreed the independent maximum sustainable capacity (MSC) assessment process, which is designed to recalibrate production baselines for 2027 onwards. But the UAE's decision appears less about securing higher quotas and more about securing flexibility. Adnoc chief executive Sultan al-Jaber described the exit as a "sovereign decision" aligned with the country's long-term energy strategy, production capacity and national interest, while maintaining a focus on global market stability. The company's approach remains centred on meeting global energy demand "with reliability and responsibility", he said, adding that partnerships and credibility would continue to underpin its positioning. Behind that language is a shift toward greater control. With capacity continuing to grow, the UAE is seeking the ability to respond to market conditions without being bound by negotiated output ceilings, a move that reflects both commercial logic and a broader recalibration of its regional positioning. The decision is not intended to signal a break with the market, nor to trigger an immediate supply response, according to UAE sources, who note that "there is no plan to flood the market". The implications for Opec+ are less immediate but more structural. The alliance remains intact, and Saudi Arabia will continue to anchor it, with the capacity and willingness to manage supply. But the UAE's exit introduces a new variable. Riyadh may want to look to reinforce its role as the system's primary stabiliser. This could revive discussions around Saudi Arabia's previously shelved plans to expand production capacity back towards 13mn b/d — a level that would further consolidate its position as the world's swing producer. Saudi officials have never fully abandoned those ambitions, Argus understands. Meanwhile, Russia remains committed to the alliance , particularly as sanctions linked to the Ukraine war continue to limit its flexibility. "We still believe in Opec+ as a structure that helps balance the global energy markets," the Kremlin said. "We hope that the structure will continue its work, and we will continue our contacts within this structure with our partners." The move also highlights a subtle but important divergence within the Gulf Co-operation Council. Tensions between the UAE and Saudi Arabia had been building even before the Iran war, particularly around regional strategies and differing views on Yemen, Sudan and relations with Israel. The conflict has accelerated that divergence, prompting a broader reassessment of alliances and strategic priorities. The UAE said it has moved to deepen ties with partners it sees as critical to its economic and security interests, including the US and Israel, as well as countries such as South Korea, France and Japan, which have played a role in supporting regional stability during the conflict. Saudi Arabia, by contrast, has adopted a more cautious diplomatic posture. It has pursued de-escalation with Iran despite direct attacks and has strengthened its regional security architecture, including a military defence agreement with Pakistan. The divergence is not limited to energy policy. The UAE is also considering suspending its membership in the Arab League and withdrawing from the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, sources told Argus, moves that would further underline a shift towards a more independent, yet risky, foreign policy posture. For now, the implications of the UAE's exit will depend largely on how the Iran conflict evolves and on the trajectory of its relationship with Riyadh. The experience of Qatar's regional isolation in 2017 remains a reference point, underscoring how quickly intra-Gulf dynamics can shift. Canary in the oil field Over the longer term, the more significant question is whether this marks the beginning of a broader shift in producers' behaviour. As markets become more volatile and less predictable, the appeal of flexibility is increasing. Producers with spare capacity may increasingly prioritise optionality over co-ordination, particularly when geopolitical risks disrupt traditional supply frameworks. This raises further questions for the composition of Opec+ itself. Venezuela's position within the group remains uncertain because of its evolving relationship with Washington. Iran's future role within the group could also come into focus if it reaches a political agreement with the US and fully reintegrates into global oil markets. In that sense, the UAE's departure may not be an isolated event, but an early signal of a more fragmented and fluid phase for producer co-ordination. Opec+ crude production mn b/d Mar Feb* Mar target ± target Opec 9 14.71 24.30 23.36 -8.65 Non-Opec 9 13.13 12.38 13.37 -0.24 Opec 18 27.84 36.68 36.74 -8.90 Total Opec+ 33.15 42.41 na na *revised †includes extra cuts agreed in Apr 23 Opec wellhead production mn b/d Mar Feb* Mar target ± target Saudi Arabia 7.00 10.88 10.10 -3.10 Iraq 1.70 4.23 4.27 -2.57 Kuwait 1.17 2.59 2.58 -1.41 UAE 1.90 3.53 3.41 -1.51 Algeria 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.01 Nigeria 1.45 1.55 1.50 -0.05 Congo (Brazzaville) 0.26 0.28 0.28 -0.02 Gabon 0.21 0.21 0.18 0.03 Equatorial Guinea 0.04 0.05 0.07 -0.03 Opec 9 14.71 24.30 23.36 -8.65 Iran 3.08 3.50 na na Libya 1.23 1.29 na na Venezuela 1.00 0.94 na na Total Opec 12‡ 20.02 30.03 na na †includes extra cuts agreed in Apr 23 ‡Iran, Libya and Venezuela are exempt from production targets Non-Opec crude production mn b/d Mar Feb* Mar target ± target Russia 9.32 9.00 9.57 -0.25 Oman 0.80 0.80 0.81 -0.01 Azerbaijan 0.46 0.46 0.55 -0.09 Kazakhstan 1.92 1.44 1.57 0.35 Malaysia 0.35 0.35 0.40 -0.05 Bahrain 0.03 0.08 0.20 -0.17 Brunei 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.01 Sudan 0.01 0.01 0.06 -0.05 South Sudan 0.15 0.15 0.12 0.03 Total non-Opec 13.13 12.38 13.37 -0.24 *revised †includes extra cuts agreed in Apr 23 Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
ADB cuts Asian growth outlook on Mideast Gulf crisis
ADB cuts Asian growth outlook on Mideast Gulf crisis
Singapore, 1 May (Argus) — The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has downgraded its economic growth outlook and raised inflation forecasts for Asia-Pacific, as prolonged disruptions caused by the US-Iran war continue to raise energy prices and weigh on economic activity. The ADB is now forecasting regional growth of 4.7pc this year and 4.8pc in 2027, down from projections of 5.1pc for both years made in its Asian Development Outlook April 2026 report. Inflation in the region is now forecast to rise to 5.2pc this year from 3pc last year, before easing to 4.1pc in 2027. The ADB's previous forecast, released in April, was based on assumptions finalised in early March, about a week after the war started, and envisaged an early stabilisation of the conflict. The revised outlook takes into account prolonged risks to energy production and transport routes, as well as continued pressure on oil and gas prices. It assumes that spot Brent crude prices will average around $96/bl in 2026 before easing to around $80/bl in 2027. This is substantially higher than pre-war levels of around $69/bl in January and February. "We are confronting systemic, long-lasting disruptions to global energy and trade networks, not just temporary volatility," said ADB's president Masato Kanda. If the conflict escalates further and oil prices move higher, growth in Asia-Pacific could slow further to 4.2pc this year and 4pc next year, while inflation could hit 7.4pc this year, the ADB said. Crude futures have risen strongly in recent days. The front-month June Brent contract on the Ice exchange traded as high as $126.41/bl on 30 April , surging by over 7pc from the previous close. The new July contract traded at $110.35/bl at 3:30pm Singapore time (07:30 GMT) today. Brent futures were trading at around $60-70/bl for most of January-February, before the war began. Demand reductions Governments should focus on cutting energy demand where possible, the ADB said. Some of the recommended measures, such as limiting air-conditioning and encouraging working from home, have already been implemented in countries including the Philippines and Singapore. Policies should also focus on stabilisation, instead of the suppression of price signals, the ADB said. "Allowing higher energy prices to pass through, at least in part, can encourage energy conservation, fuel switching, and investment in alternative energy sources," it said. Meanwhile, central banks should try to limit excessive market volatility. Aggressive policy tightening could worsen growth headwinds and exacerbate financial volatility. Some tightening may be warranted, "but anchoring inflation expectations with effective central bank communication will remain key," the ADB said. By Prethika Nair Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
PBF to move WTI to US east coast on Jones waiver
PBF to move WTI to US east coast on Jones waiver
Houston, 30 April (Argus) — Refiner PBF Energy is planning to run WTI crude at its eastern US refineries in the second quarter taking advantage of a waiver of the Jones Act, the company said today. With the Jones Act "on the shelf for a period of time", PBF can run non-traditional crudes to the east coast, including WTI and other US barrels, chief executive Matthew Lucey said on an earnings call. PBF's east coast facilities include the 171,000 b/d Delaware City refinery in Delaware and the 100,000 b/d Paulsboro refinery in New Jersey. The refineries run a variety of heavy crude slates, which they can receive through waterborne cargoes or by rail, but can also process lighter, sweeter oil like Bakken crude. The shipments would take advantage of a Jones Act waiver first issued on 17 March and later extended by 90 days through 15 August. US president Donald Trump approved the waiver of domestic shipping requirements in an attempt to ease a spike in commodity prices caused by the US-Iran war. PBF earlier this month shipped heavy crude between two points in California on a foreign-flagged ship, the second instance of the Jones Act waiver being used to move crude cargoes, according to ship-tracking data from Kpler. Phillips 66 has also shipped oil using a Jones Act waiver, moving Bakken crude from its Nederland terminal in Texas to supply its 258,500 b/d Bayway refinery in New Jersey. By Eunice Bridges Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
