Shifting incentives bring uncertainty, limit liquidity in spot California R99 markets
Summer has brought record low R99 cash prices — and nearly 3.2mn bl of vessel-supplied renewable diesel — to key California distribution hubs, but those seeking to take long-term supply positions must grapple with changing incentive programs and yet unseen consequences for supply flows.
Looking ahead to the end of 2024, the future of RD supply is murky. Changing credit eligibility could discourage the volume of imports the west coast has grown accustomed to, domestic refining margins at the US Gulf coast have been indicated on the decline for much of the year, and a volatile underlying CARB diesel basis increases participants’ exposure to price risk.
Cash prices for R99 at the head of the pipeline (hop) in Los Angeles hit their lowest level in Argus series history on 6 August, when a downturn in the underlying CARB diesel basis pressured values to just $2.35/USG. The price slide, coupled with anecdotally unworkable spreads to local rack prices, weighed heavily on activity this summer, despite a steady stream of offshore shipments.
Deliveries via vessel to northern California in August were the second highest in Argus history at an estimated 741,000 bl — the latest in steady monthly increases since June — per data aggregated from bills of lading and global trade and analytics platform Kpler. Jones Act vessels from the US Gulf coast alone accounted for 448,000 bl, while shipments ex-Singapore constituted the remaining volume.
Southern California received an estimated 847,000 bl, almost evenly split between offshore suppliers and those at the US Gulf coast.
But the future of renewable diesel supply flows into California is mired with uncertainty surrounding incentives for both importers and domestic refiners. The BTC is set to expire with the 2024 calendar year, giving way to the IRA’s Clean Fuel Production Credit. The change would heavily favor US-based renewable diesel production and reduce awards for high-volume offshore imports to the US west coast, the latest pivot for an adolescent market that has struggled to achieve supply equilibrium.
Waterborne renewable diesel deliveries to California ports
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Neste — the leading offshore supplier of US R99 — is also slated to undergo turnarounds at both its Rotterdam, Netherlands, and Singapore facilities this quarter, followed by a second short-term Singapore turnaround in the fourth quarter. But the import lineup so far does not reflect a disruption in deliveries to the US this quarter.
At home, refining margins at the US Gulf coast are indicated on the upswing after narrowing through early August.
Renewable diesel deliveries to the west coast by rail from other US regions reached a record-high of nearly 2mn bl in May, per data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Shipments by vessel are also trending higher, with an estimated 864,000 bl delivered to California in August — the highest since November.
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Spot R99 markets in California were little tested at the end of August, although both the Los Angeles and San Francisco markets drew support from a controversial surprise proposal to limit California Low Carbon Fuel Standard credit generation for renewable diesel made from soybean or canola oils. The California Air Resources Board will also consider a one-time tightening of annual carbon reduction targets for gasoline and diesel by 9pc in 2025, compared with the usual 1.25pc annual reduction and a 5pc stepdown first proposed in December 2023, per a 12 August release.
But an unsteady economic landscape for domestic production remains a key decision-driver among US refiners.
Vertex Energy will begin reversing a renewable fuels hydrocracking unit back to conventional fuel feedstocks this quarter at its 88,000 b/d Mobile, Alabama, refinery. The company at the time cited headwinds in the renewable fuels market that it expects to persist through 2025.
Author: Jasmine Davis, Editor, Associate Editor – Oil Products
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Pemex Deer Park refinery H2S leak kills 2: Update
Pemex Deer Park refinery H2S leak kills 2: Update
Adds comment from Mexican energy minister, context from regulatory filings. Houston, 11 October (Argus) — A hydrogen sulfide (H2S) leak at Pemex's 312,500 b/d Deer Park, Texas, refinery on 10 October killed two workers and injured 35 more. The leak occurred accidentally during maintenance, according to a regulatory filing submitted by Pemex this morning. Several units, including an amine unit, an alkylation unit, a hydrocracker and a sulphur recovery unit were promptly shut and flaring was initiated so the leak could secured. Mexican energy minister Luz Elena Gonzalez said in a press conference in Mexico City Friday morning that the refinery was expected to restart operations later today. Deadly accidents at US refineries usually require extensive regulatory investigations by federal agencies, however, which require facilities or certain units at a plant to remain shut down. H2S is an extremely hazardous gas commonly produced as a byproduct of refining, which can be processed into pure sulphur in a sulphur recovery unit (SRU) or removed by hydrotreating. Shell's Deer Park petrochemical facility, located adjacent to Pemex's refinery, said it was doing a "controlled slowdown" of its operations as of 8:52pm yesterday in response to the accident as a precaution. A flaring event was initially reported by a Deer Park Office of Emergency Management (OEM) social media account at 6:23pm ET on 10 October. A shelter in place advisory was issued for all Deer Park residents in a follow-up notice and Texas State Highway 225 running adjacent to the refinery was also closed to traffic. Areas of nearby Pasadena were also placed under a shelter in place advisory. The Deer Park shelter in place was lifted at 10pm ET. The Pemex refinery had previously reported an aromatic concentration unit (ACU) leak on 6 October. Amine units strip H2S from methane gas generated by hydrotreaters. Alkylation units produce high-octane blendstocks used in gasoline. Hydrocrackers use hydrogen, pressure, and catalyst to produce distillates and gasoline low in contaminants like sulphur. SRUs help to remove sulphur and other impurities from refinery products and gas streams. By Gordon Pollock Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Florida ports, fuel supplies, begin recovery: Update 2
Florida ports, fuel supplies, begin recovery: Update 2
Updates more port and terminal conditions, adds daily CBOB/ULSD prices. Houston, 10 October (Argus) — Port Tampa Bay, Florida, docks did not sustain significant damage from Hurricane Milton, the port authority said Thursday, a positive sign for resuming fuel imports into the storm ravaged state. Some port buildings were damaged and power remains out, according to preliminary assessments, but the port docks appear to have escaped major damage, according to the port authority. Many roads leading to the port remain flooded, but the port's main gates are accessible. There is no current timeline for the port's re-opening. Damage to Global Partners' Florida fuel terminals is less severe than the company expected, a spokesperson said Thursday afternoon. Global is loading cargoes from its three Port Everglades terminals. Its Tampa terminal is offline and running on generator power due to power outages, but staff are on site working to restore operations. Kinder Morgan is continuing to assess its terminals and pipeline, a spokesperson said Thursday afternoon. Chevron's Tampa refined products terminal remains closed and damage assessments will begin once crews can safely access the facility, a company spokesperson said Thursday morning. The company's terminals in Panama City and Port Everglades are operational. Citgo said it found no major damage at its Tampa terminal after an initial assessment but a more detailed inspection is ongoing as it works to restore operations. Buckeye, which shut Tampa terminals ahead of the hurricane, did not immediately respond to requests for information on the status of its operations. Tampa spared the worst Florida governor Ron DeSantis said Thursday that Port Tampa avoided the worst-case scenario in terms of storm surge and that eastern Florida ports on the opposite side of the state from where Milton made landfall appear largely undamaged. Nearly half of Florida's supply of petroleum and refined products passes through Port Tampa Bay, the majority via waterborne cargo from the US Gulf coast. Tampa Bay is also the site of major fertilizer operations, including Mosaic's Riverview phosphate plant. The state has 1.5mn USG of diesel and about 1.1mn USG of gasoline available to deploy in its emergency response, DeSantis said. Florida's highway patrol continues to escort fuel tankers making deliveries to gas stations and has completed about 130 escorts after some stations ran dry earlier this week as Floridians stocked up on fuel and evacuated coastal regions. DeSantis said he expects gas stations to reopen "very quickly, at least that's our hope." Prices for Florida CBOB delivered at Tampa and Port Everglades rose by 8.51¢/USG to $2.17/USG today while prices for Florida ULSD rose by 7.09¢/USG to $2.39/USG. Cash differentials in the waterborne ULSD markets and gasoline cargo markets were little changed. About 3.4mn Floridians were without power early today after Hurricane Milton came ashore south of Tampa Bay late Wednesday night as a category 3 storm. Utility crews are assessing the damage from high winds, tornadoes and flooding, and starting to restore power. The number of customers without power dipped below 3mn Thursday afternoon. Restrictions were lifted Thursday at a number of Florida ports closed for the storm, the Coast Guard said, while others are expected to open in the next day. By Nathan Risser and Cooper Sukaly Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Port Tampa Bay begins hurricane recovery: Update
Port Tampa Bay begins hurricane recovery: Update
Adds comments from Florida governor, information on fuel supplies. Houston, 10 October (Argus) — Port Tampa Bay, Florida, docks did not sustain significant damage from Hurricane Milton, the port authority said early today, a positive sign for resuming fuel imports into the storm ravaged state. Some port buildings were damaged and power remains out, according to preliminary assessments, but the port docks appear to have escaped major damage, according to the port authority. Many roads leading to the port remain flooded, but the port's main gates are accessible. Florida governor Ron DeSantis said Thursday that Port Tampa avoided the worst-case scenario in terms of storm surge and that eastern Florida ports on the opposite side of the state from where Milton made landfall appear largely undamaged. The state has 1.5mn USG of diesel and about 1.1mn USG of gasoline available to deploy in its emergency response, DeSantis said. Florida's highway patrol continues to escort fuel tankers making deliveries to gas stations and has completed about 130 escorts after some stations ran dry earlier this week as Floridians stocked up on fuel and evacuated coastal regions. DeSantis said today he expects gas stations to reopen "very quickly, at least that's our hope." Port Tampa Bay officials are working with the US Army Corps of Engineers, US Coast Guard and others to assess landside and seaside operations. There is no currrent timeline for the port's re-opening. More than 3mn Floridians are without power today after Hurricane Milton came ashore south of Tampa Bay late last night as a category 3 storm. Utility crews are assessing the damage from high winds, tornadoes and flooding, and starting to restore power. Nearly half of Florida's supply of petroleum and refined products passes through Port Tampa Bay, the majority via waterborne cargo from the US Gulf coast. Tampa Bay is also the site of major fertilizer operations, including Mosaic's Riverview phosphate plant. Chevron's Tampa refined products terminal remains closed and damage assessments will begin once crews can safely access the facility, a company spokesperson said just after 11am ET today. The company's terminals in Panama City and Port Everglades are operational. Fuel terminal operators at Port Tampa Bay such as Citgo, Kinder Morgan, Global Partners and Buckeye Partners told Argus they are currently evaluating their facilities to determine when they can resume operations. Individual port tenants will decide independently when to restart their own activities. By Cooper Sukaly and Nathan Risser Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
