Shifting incentives bring uncertainty, limit liquidity in spot California R99 markets
Summer has brought record low R99 cash prices — and nearly 3.2mn bl of vessel-supplied renewable diesel — to key California distribution hubs, but those seeking to take long-term supply positions must grapple with changing incentive programs and yet unseen consequences for supply flows.
Looking ahead to the end of 2024, the future of RD supply is murky. Changing credit eligibility could discourage the volume of imports the west coast has grown accustomed to, domestic refining margins at the US Gulf coast have been indicated on the decline for much of the year, and a volatile underlying CARB diesel basis increases participants’ exposure to price risk.
Cash prices for R99 at the head of the pipeline (hop) in Los Angeles hit their lowest level in Argus series history on 6 August, when a downturn in the underlying CARB diesel basis pressured values to just $2.35/USG. The price slide, coupled with anecdotally unworkable spreads to local rack prices, weighed heavily on activity this summer, despite a steady stream of offshore shipments.
Deliveries via vessel to northern California in August were the second highest in Argus history at an estimated 741,000 bl — the latest in steady monthly increases since June — per data aggregated from bills of lading and global trade and analytics platform Kpler. Jones Act vessels from the US Gulf coast alone accounted for 448,000 bl, while shipments ex-Singapore constituted the remaining volume.
Southern California received an estimated 847,000 bl, almost evenly split between offshore suppliers and those at the US Gulf coast.
But the future of renewable diesel supply flows into California is mired with uncertainty surrounding incentives for both importers and domestic refiners. The BTC is set to expire with the 2024 calendar year, giving way to the IRA’s Clean Fuel Production Credit. The change would heavily favor US-based renewable diesel production and reduce awards for high-volume offshore imports to the US west coast, the latest pivot for an adolescent market that has struggled to achieve supply equilibrium.
Waterborne renewable diesel deliveries to California ports
.png?h=291&w=800&rev=-1&hash=805DEE6681CA9F3678BC5E88DD75A8F7)
Neste — the leading offshore supplier of US R99 — is also slated to undergo turnarounds at both its Rotterdam, Netherlands, and Singapore facilities this quarter, followed by a second short-term Singapore turnaround in the fourth quarter. But the import lineup so far does not reflect a disruption in deliveries to the US this quarter.
At home, refining margins at the US Gulf coast are indicated on the upswing after narrowing through early August.
Renewable diesel deliveries to the west coast by rail from other US regions reached a record-high of nearly 2mn bl in May, per data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Shipments by vessel are also trending higher, with an estimated 864,000 bl delivered to California in August — the highest since November.
.png?h=447&w=750&rev=-1&hash=523587FB8AC1CF6FBF1C3B391D064F37)
.png?h=397&w=750&rev=-1&hash=300171F16039880C05D3A0D41F8B77AB)
Spot R99 markets in California were little tested at the end of August, although both the Los Angeles and San Francisco markets drew support from a controversial surprise proposal to limit California Low Carbon Fuel Standard credit generation for renewable diesel made from soybean or canola oils. The California Air Resources Board will also consider a one-time tightening of annual carbon reduction targets for gasoline and diesel by 9pc in 2025, compared with the usual 1.25pc annual reduction and a 5pc stepdown first proposed in December 2023, per a 12 August release.
But an unsteady economic landscape for domestic production remains a key decision-driver among US refiners.
Vertex Energy will begin reversing a renewable fuels hydrocracking unit back to conventional fuel feedstocks this quarter at its 88,000 b/d Mobile, Alabama, refinery. The company at the time cited headwinds in the renewable fuels market that it expects to persist through 2025.
Author: Jasmine Davis, Editor, Associate Editor – Oil Products
Spotlight content
Nenhum resultado encontrado
Nenhum resultado encontrado
Nenhum resultado encontrado
Related news
Qatar presents 2040 climate target to UN
Qatar presents 2040 climate target to UN
Edinburgh, 4 December (Argus) — Qatar has pledged to reduce its emissions by 42mn t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) by 2040 from a 2019 baseline, with the oil and gas sector "at the forefront of national mitigation efforts". Qatar does not provide its total greenhouse emissions for 2019, but said its climate plan encompasses CO2, methane and nitrous oxide gases. It covers the energy sector — oil and gas, power and water — construction and industry, transport, waste and agriculture, forestry and other land use. Parties to the Paris Agreement were required to submit climate plans, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs), for 2035 to the UN climate body UNFCCC this year. Qatar had previously targeted emission reductions of 25pc, or 37mn CO2e, by 2030, compared with a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. BAU scenarios typically assume emissions based on current policies, leaving room for potential increases. The country's emission cuts in its oil and gas sector will rely on "deploying cleaner fossil fuel technologies, developing engineered sinks to store emissions, diversifying the energy mix, and driving operational excellence across existing facilities and infrastructure", according to its climate plan. Qatar is the world's largest LNG producer, with a production capacity of 77mn t/yr, according to QatarEnergy, and its economy is heavily reliant on hydrocarbon revenues. The country's climate plan highlights the country's vulnerability to response measures to mitigate climate change, resulting from its economy's reliance on hydrocarbons. "Qatar is actively working to reduce the socio-economic effects of global climate action," the plan said, adding that it seeks to balance climate goals with national sustainable development. "Despite many efforts and considering its role as a leading producer and exporter of natural gas, Qatar remains significantly vulnerable to climate response measures," it said. Qatar is part of the Arab Group, a negotiating group in UNFCCC climate talks, which is seeking to focus on cutting emissions from fossil fuels, rather than hydrocarbon production and consumption, through increased adoption of carbon capture technologies. The country said it plays "a pivotal role" in supporting other countries' targets by "reliably supplying them with a cleaner alternative to coal and oil and providing a critical backup for intermittent renewables". Qatar's climate plan sees the secure and affordable supply of lower-carbon energy as well as the deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS) and the management of emissions of energy production as the focus to pursue sustainable development and climate action. The country considers itself to be among the leaders in CCS with its Ras Laffan project, and aims to capture 11mn t/yr of CO2 by 2035. Engineering firm Samsung C&T was recently awarded a contract to build a 4.1mn t/yr CO2 facility to process and store emissions from Qatar's LNG liquefaction plants. Qatar, in its climate plan, highlighted the country's water supply vulnerability to temperature increases and heat. The power and water sector accounts for a large share of the country's emissions. Water scarcity is also responsible for increasing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in Bahrain through desalination, although its energy sector remains the main source of emissions, according to the country's new climate plan. The country is heavily reliant on fossil fuels for its energy and revenues, while "limited land availability and competing land-use demands constrain large-scale deployment" for the development of solar energy. Rising demand over the peak summer months this year meant that Bahrain had to import LNG for the first time since commissioning its 800mn ft³/d onshore LNG receiving and regasification terminal in 2020. But it is looking at renewables options and is in talks with Saudi Arabia for a link to a large-scale solar facility. Bahrain said that response measures to climate change "may lead to economic losses that, in turn, hinder Bahrain's ability to pursue effective climate action and achieve broader sustainable development objectives." By Caroline Varin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Idemitsu, Kanematsu start biofuel supply for ships
Idemitsu, Kanematsu start biofuel supply for ships
Osaka, 3 December (Argus) — Japanese refiner Idemitsu and trading house Kanematsu have started supplying biofuel mixed with fatty acid methyl ester (Fame) for oceangoing ships, to help reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the maritime sector, the companies said today. In October, Idemitsu began bunkering cleaner fuel oil, which includes up to 24pc of Fame, for oceangoing ships, using Kanematsu' storage and shipping facilities in southern Japan's Kokura, a spokesperson at Idemitsu told Argus on 3 December. Under this partnership, Kanematsu procures Fame and blends it with fuel oil supplied by Idemitsu. The Fame mixture will cut GHG emissions by around 20pccompared with conventional fuel, Kanematsu said. Idemitsu aims to deliver a total of 5,000t of bio-blended fuel by March 2026, including supply for domestic vessels. This is equivalent to the amount of fuel consumed by a 300,000 dwt vessel during about 50 days of operation, the company added. The start of their commercial operations comes after Idemitsu's demonstration in northern Hokkaido , where it tested bunkering operations for coastal vessels with fuel containing 24pc Fame in 2023-24. Idemitsu is also gearing up to develop a supply chain for low-carbon methanol for vessels, aiming to start methanol bunkering from the April 2026-March 2027 fiscal year. By Motoko Hasegawa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
India's transport fuel demand rises in November
India's transport fuel demand rises in November
Mumbai, 3 December (Argus) — India's transport fuel demand rose to 3.37mn b/d in November, up by 10pc on the month and 4pc on the year on the back of rising domestic demand, preliminary oil ministry data show. Diesel demand rose by 16pc on the month and 5pc on the year to 2.12mn b/d in November. But gasoline demand fell marginally on the month after festive demand in October. Demand for jet fuel rose by 5pc on the month as air travel activity remained strong. India's diesel demand continues to rise because of rising construction activity during winter. Diesel demand weakens around monsoons as heavy rains impede movement of commercial trucks and vehicles — major consumers of the fuel. Irrigation activities also slowed because of the rain as some parts of north India experienced heavy floods. India's transport fuel demand totalled 3.07mn b/d over January-November, up by 4pc on the year. Gasoline demand posted the largest increase of 6pc compared with a year earlier, followed by diesel and jet fuel each rising by 3pc. India exported 1.29mn b/d of oil products in November, up by 12pc on the year, according to market intelligence firm Kpler. Crude imports also rose by 15pc on the year to 5.07mn b/d in November. By Rituparna Ghosh India's Jan-Nov oil products demand b/d Product Jan-Nov '25 Jan-Nov '24 y-o-y ± % Gasoline 971,779.5 914,243.8 6 Diesel 1,903,147.5 1,855,337.5 3 Jet fuel 195,927.3 190,217.3 3 Total 3,070,854.3 2,959,798.6 4 Source: Oil ministry India's oil product demand b/d Products Nov '25 Oct '25 m-o-m ± % Nov '24 y-o-y ± % Gasoline 986,678 995,465 -0.9 965,553.3 2.2 Diesel 2,125,851 1,830,828 16.1 2,030,612 4.7 Jet fuel 205,668 195,475 5.2 196,474.7 4.7 Total 3,371,327 3,057,694 10.3 3,241,832 4 Source: Oil ministry Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
September US base oil production falls 8pc: Correction
September US base oil production falls 8pc: Correction
Corrects paraffinic base oil output and base oil products supplied in story published 1 December. Houston, 2 December (Argus) — US base oil output declined 8pc in September from year-earlier levels to 156,700 b/d, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA) data, driven by a fire at a Louisiana blending facility. Smitty's Supply experienced a fire at its Roseland, Louisiana, blending facility in late-August that limited a portion of base oil offtake. The fire decreased September base oil production by 12pc from August levels. Many US refiners were building inventories ahead of Excel Paralubes' 22,200 b/d refinery turnaround in Westlake, Louisiana, to offset potential limited availability. Other producers had sufficient hurricane inventories to rely on. September paraffinic base oil output was 144,830 b/d, down by 0.2pc year over year and down by 5.7pc from August levels of 153,550 b/d. Base oil products supplied, a proxy for domestic demand, rose 29pc from a year earlier and 5.6pc from August levels, according to EIA data. Demand was elevated for September because Ergon's 25,000 Group I/II refinery in Vicksburg, Mississippi was down for its planned turnaround and Excel Paralubes was preparing for its early October maintenance. US base oil production declined in the Gulf coast, Texas Gulf coast and midcontinent regions because of several refiners were limiting spot offers in order to keep inventory levels balanced during turnarounds. Naphthenic base oil output fell by 53pc year over year to 11,480 b/d, and by 54pc from August levels of 24,970 b/d. Naphthenic levels dropped mainly because Ergon's naphthenic unit was also down for turnaround in September, which kept supplies limited despite firm demand for most naphthenic grades. September EIA export data was estimated using August totals because recent Census trade data is unavailable following the partial US government shutdown. Monthly export numbers are unchanged because of the lack of new data. By Karly Lamm Paraffinic base oil output by region b/d 25-Sep 25-Aug m-o-m±% US Gulf coast 110,670 119,900 -8 Texas Gulf coast 44,870 53,580 -16 Louisiana Gulf coast 60,830 58,550 4 US Midcontinent 7,270 8,840 -18 US Atlantic coast 5,670 5,230 8 Paraffinic total 153,550 148,550 3.3 Energy Information Administration (EIA) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.