Shifting incentives bring uncertainty, limit liquidity in spot California R99 markets
Summer has brought record low R99 cash prices — and nearly 3.2mn bl of vessel-supplied renewable diesel — to key California distribution hubs, but those seeking to take long-term supply positions must grapple with changing incentive programs and yet unseen consequences for supply flows.
Looking ahead to the end of 2024, the future of RD supply is murky. Changing credit eligibility could discourage the volume of imports the west coast has grown accustomed to, domestic refining margins at the US Gulf coast have been indicated on the decline for much of the year, and a volatile underlying CARB diesel basis increases participants’ exposure to price risk.
Cash prices for R99 at the head of the pipeline (hop) in Los Angeles hit their lowest level in Argus series history on 6 August, when a downturn in the underlying CARB diesel basis pressured values to just $2.35/USG. The price slide, coupled with anecdotally unworkable spreads to local rack prices, weighed heavily on activity this summer, despite a steady stream of offshore shipments.
Deliveries via vessel to northern California in August were the second highest in Argus history at an estimated 741,000 bl — the latest in steady monthly increases since June — per data aggregated from bills of lading and global trade and analytics platform Kpler. Jones Act vessels from the US Gulf coast alone accounted for 448,000 bl, while shipments ex-Singapore constituted the remaining volume.
Southern California received an estimated 847,000 bl, almost evenly split between offshore suppliers and those at the US Gulf coast.
But the future of renewable diesel supply flows into California is mired with uncertainty surrounding incentives for both importers and domestic refiners. The BTC is set to expire with the 2024 calendar year, giving way to the IRA’s Clean Fuel Production Credit. The change would heavily favor US-based renewable diesel production and reduce awards for high-volume offshore imports to the US west coast, the latest pivot for an adolescent market that has struggled to achieve supply equilibrium.
Waterborne renewable diesel deliveries to California ports
.png?h=291&w=800&rev=0da4c0f74b6a4e30973246d5f32de530&hash=F868202B62F444876E6C39C2525BA625)
Neste — the leading offshore supplier of US R99 — is also slated to undergo turnarounds at both its Rotterdam, Netherlands, and Singapore facilities this quarter, followed by a second short-term Singapore turnaround in the fourth quarter. But the import lineup so far does not reflect a disruption in deliveries to the US this quarter.
At home, refining margins at the US Gulf coast are indicated on the upswing after narrowing through early August.
Renewable diesel deliveries to the west coast by rail from other US regions reached a record-high of nearly 2mn bl in May, per data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Shipments by vessel are also trending higher, with an estimated 864,000 bl delivered to California in August — the highest since November.
.png?h=447&w=750&rev=cf8cbeb0d7b247bf9fb16db85a818ad5&hash=9E60E62EFCDF0647829A9DBCE502BC76)
.png?h=397&w=750&rev=27de018dd5924e60b1c7a0f677ab538d&hash=940E4F9EB873083DA031B1F9D2EEA247)
Spot R99 markets in California were little tested at the end of August, although both the Los Angeles and San Francisco markets drew support from a controversial surprise proposal to limit California Low Carbon Fuel Standard credit generation for renewable diesel made from soybean or canola oils. The California Air Resources Board will also consider a one-time tightening of annual carbon reduction targets for gasoline and diesel by 9pc in 2025, compared with the usual 1.25pc annual reduction and a 5pc stepdown first proposed in December 2023, per a 12 August release.
But an unsteady economic landscape for domestic production remains a key decision-driver among US refiners.
Vertex Energy will begin reversing a renewable fuels hydrocracking unit back to conventional fuel feedstocks this quarter at its 88,000 b/d Mobile, Alabama, refinery. The company at the time cited headwinds in the renewable fuels market that it expects to persist through 2025.
Author: Jasmine Davis, Editor, Associate Editor – Oil Products
Spotlight content
Related news
Risks rising for possible recession in Mexico: Analysts
Risks rising for possible recession in Mexico: Analysts
Mexico City, 17 April (Argus) — The Mexican finance executive association (IMEF) lowered its 2025 GDP growth forecast for a second consecutive month in its April survey, citing a rising risk of recession on US-Mexico trade tensions. In its April survey, growth expectations for 2025 fell to 0.2pc, down from 0.6pc in March and 1pc in February. Nine of the 43 respondents projected negative growth — up from four in March, citing rising exposure to US tariffs that now affect "roughly half" of Mexico's exports. The group warned that the risk of recession will continue to rise until tariff negotiations are resolved, with the possibility of a US recession compounding the problem. As such, IMEF expects a contraction in the first quarter with high odds of continued negative growth in the second quarter — meeting one common definition of recession as two straight quarters of contraction. Mexico's economy decelerated in the fourth quarter of 2024 to an annualized rate of 0.5pc from 1.7pc the previous quarter, the slowest expansion since the first quarter of 2021, according to statistics agency data. Mexico's statistics agency Inegi will release its first estimate for first quarter GDP growth on April 30. "A recession is now very likely," said IMEF's director of economic studies Victor Herrera. "Some sectors, like construction, are already struggling — and it's just a matter of time before it spreads." The severity of the downturn will depend on how quickly trade tensions ease and whether the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade agreement is successfully revised, Herrera added. But the outlook remains uncertain, with mixed signals this week — including a possible pause on auto tariffs and fresh warnings of new tariffs on key food exports like tomatoes. IMEF also trimmed its 2026 GDP forecast to 1.5pc from 1.6pc, citing persistent tariff uncertainty. Its 2025 formal job creation estimate dropped to 220,000 from 280,000 in March. The group slightly lowered its 2025 inflation forecast to 3.8pc from 3.9pc, noting current consumer price index should allow the central bank to continue the current rate cut cycle to lower its target interest rate to 8pc by year-end from 9pc. IMEF expects the peso to end the year at Ps20.90/$1, slightly stronger than the Ps21/$1 forecast in March. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Saudi petchem expansion plans to cap naphtha exports
Saudi petchem expansion plans to cap naphtha exports
Dubai, 17 April (Argus) — Saudi Arabia's plans to integrate downstream petrochemical units with its oil refineries could weigh on naphtha exports and gasoline blending. State-controlled Aramco recently signed a deal with Chinese state-controlled Sinopec to build and integrate a 1.8mn t/yr mix-feed ethylene steam cracker and a 1.5mn t/yr aromatics complex into the 400,000 b/d Yasref refinery. This sort of integration would typically redirect naphtha to the petrochemical units and away from the gasoline blending pool, traders said. Market participants point to a likely fall in overall Saudi naphtha exports, as has been the case since the integration of petrochemical operations at the 400,000 b/d Jizan and PetroRabigh refineries in 2021 and 2008, respectively. Joint Organisations Data Initiative (Jodi) data show Saudi naphtha exports in steady decline to 93,000 b/d in 2024, 108,700 b/d in 2023, 144,800 b/d in 2022 and 169,200 b/d in 2021. Data from Kpler show naphtha exports from the Yasref refinery at 22,000 b/d in 2024, down from 25,000 b/d a year earlier but higher than 19,000 b/d in 2022. The majority of these exports went to Indonesia, Malaysia and South Korea. Yasref has the capacity to produce 112,000 b/d gasoline but it exported only 17,000 b/d in 2024 and 26,000 b/d in 2023. Market participants said the integration may not have any immediate significant effect on gasoline output but the addition of the aromatic complex, in theory, could need pull in more heavy full-range naphtha that is otherwise used as a blendstock for gasoline production. It remains to be seen if the new mixed feed cracker would favour naphtha or LPG as a feedstock. Ethane accounts for the majority of feedstock for Saudi crackers. The shift of focus from producing transportation fuels to petrochemicals comes as Saudi gasoline demand continues to lag pre-pandemic levels and faces pressure from growing uptake of electric vehicles. Saudi gasoline demand averaged 514,000 b/d in 2024, well below the 550,000 b/d in pre-pandemic 2019, mainly because of higher retail prices . Aramco has a target to process up to 4mn b/d of crude into petrochemicals by 2030, from 1mn b/d currently. It is developing an $11bn petrochemical expansion project at the 460,000 b/d Satorp refinery joint venture with TotalEnergies. By Rithika Krishna Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Japan’s Mitsui invests in US e-fuel producer
Japan’s Mitsui invests in US e-fuel producer
Tokyo, 17 April (Argus) — Japanese trading company Mitsui has invested in California-based synthetic fuel (e-fuel) producer Infinium, aiming to acquire knowledge on technology and commercialisation in the emerging sector. The investment in Infinium was conducted in March, Mitsui told Argus on 16 April, declining to disclose the specific amount. This marks Mitsui's second investment in e-fuel producers. The firm invested in California-based synthetic sustainable aviation fuel (e-SAF) producer Twelve Benefit . Infinium produces green hydrogen from water by electrolysis, and converts the hydrogen and CO2 into e-fuels by using renewable energy. The firm is planning to launch its second plant, which will specialise in e-SAF production. International Airlines Group (IAG) and American Airlines have agreed to receive the e-SAF that will be produced at the plant. E-fuels can help reduce over 90pc of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions compared with conventional fossil fuels, and are notable as "drop-in" substitutes for conventional fuels, applicable to existing engines and infrastructures, Mitsui said. Mitsui is observing the e-SAF market. SAF is a relatively promising prospect in the renewable energy sector, on the back of the target by the UN's International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) to achieve net-zero emissions in international aviation by 2050, as well as governmental policies bolstering the deployment of SAF, a representative of the firm told Argus . Japan plans to replace 10pc of the jet fuel consumed by domestic airlines with SAF in 2030. By Kohei Yamamoto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Valero Benicia refinery closure latest Calif challenge
Valero Benicia refinery closure latest Calif challenge
Adds details on refinery operations, California regulations. Houston, 16 April (Argus) — US refiner Valero is planning to shut or re-purpose its 145,000 b/d refinery in Benicia, California, compounding the state's fuel market challenges. The company submitted a notice to the California Energy Commission (CEC) today of its intent "to idle, restructure, or cease refining operations" at the refinery by the end of April 2026. Valero also said it continues to evaluate strategic alternatives for its remaining operations in the state, namely its 85,000 b/d Wilmington refinery. Valero said previously west coast refinery closures were likely , citing the high cost of doing business in the state given its environmental and financial regulations. California refiners in recent years have faced what the industry views as a restrictive environment for processing crude. Phillips 66 last year said it would shut its 139,000 b/d Los Angeles refinery, saying that the long-term sustainability of the refinery was uncertain and affected by market dynamics. The Phillips 66 refinery will be shut by October. Growing legislative barriers California governor Gavin Newsom last year signed two laws, SB X1-2 and AB X2-1, which added regulations in an effort to reduce retail gasoline price volatility. The measures authorized the CEC to develop and impose requirements for in-state refiners to maintain minimum stocks of gasoline and gasoline blending components. They also authorized the CEC to determine an acceptable refining margin in the state and penalize companies that exceed it. The agency is currently in the rulemaking process on some of the measures including a requirement for refiners to submit "resupply plans" 120 days before planned maintenance that must be approved by the state. Non-compliance could carry a civil penalty of $100,000-$1mn per day. Separately, the city of Benicia recently approved a safety ordinance that applies to industrial facilities that handle hazardous materials including the Valero refinery. The ordinance included new air quality monitoring programs. California air regulators in October 2024 levied an $82mn fine against Valero for emissions violations at the Benicia refinery. The Bay Area Air Quality Management District and California Air Resources Board announced the penalty for "egregious emissions violations" stemming from a 2019 inspection that discovered unreported emissions coming from the refinery's hydrogen system. Since the 1980s, 29 refineries in California have been shut or integrated with other refineries that eventually closed or converted to renewable fuels production, according to CEC data. About half of the shut refineries were smaller operations, producing less than 20,000 b/d. Chevron, the US oil major that has long complained about a hostile regulatory environment in its home state of California, is relocating its headquarters to Houston. Valero said this week it recorded a pre-tax impairment charge of $1.1bn for the Benicia and Wilmington refineries in the first quarter as it evaluates strategic alternatives. The impairment will be treated as a special item and excluded from first quarter earnings, Valero said. The Benicia refinery produces jet fuel, gasoline, diesel, and asphalt and has more than 400 employees. By Eunice Bridges Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
