Shifting incentives bring uncertainty, limit liquidity in spot California R99 markets
Summer has brought record low R99 cash prices — and nearly 3.2mn bl of vessel-supplied renewable diesel — to key California distribution hubs, but those seeking to take long-term supply positions must grapple with changing incentive programs and yet unseen consequences for supply flows.
Looking ahead to the end of 2024, the future of RD supply is murky. Changing credit eligibility could discourage the volume of imports the west coast has grown accustomed to, domestic refining margins at the US Gulf coast have been indicated on the decline for much of the year, and a volatile underlying CARB diesel basis increases participants’ exposure to price risk.
Cash prices for R99 at the head of the pipeline (hop) in Los Angeles hit their lowest level in Argus series history on 6 August, when a downturn in the underlying CARB diesel basis pressured values to just $2.35/USG. The price slide, coupled with anecdotally unworkable spreads to local rack prices, weighed heavily on activity this summer, despite a steady stream of offshore shipments.
Deliveries via vessel to northern California in August were the second highest in Argus history at an estimated 741,000 bl — the latest in steady monthly increases since June — per data aggregated from bills of lading and global trade and analytics platform Kpler. Jones Act vessels from the US Gulf coast alone accounted for 448,000 bl, while shipments ex-Singapore constituted the remaining volume.
Southern California received an estimated 847,000 bl, almost evenly split between offshore suppliers and those at the US Gulf coast.
But the future of renewable diesel supply flows into California is mired with uncertainty surrounding incentives for both importers and domestic refiners. The BTC is set to expire with the 2024 calendar year, giving way to the IRA’s Clean Fuel Production Credit. The change would heavily favor US-based renewable diesel production and reduce awards for high-volume offshore imports to the US west coast, the latest pivot for an adolescent market that has struggled to achieve supply equilibrium.
Waterborne renewable diesel deliveries to California ports
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Neste — the leading offshore supplier of US R99 — is also slated to undergo turnarounds at both its Rotterdam, Netherlands, and Singapore facilities this quarter, followed by a second short-term Singapore turnaround in the fourth quarter. But the import lineup so far does not reflect a disruption in deliveries to the US this quarter.
At home, refining margins at the US Gulf coast are indicated on the upswing after narrowing through early August.
Renewable diesel deliveries to the west coast by rail from other US regions reached a record-high of nearly 2mn bl in May, per data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Shipments by vessel are also trending higher, with an estimated 864,000 bl delivered to California in August — the highest since November.
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Spot R99 markets in California were little tested at the end of August, although both the Los Angeles and San Francisco markets drew support from a controversial surprise proposal to limit California Low Carbon Fuel Standard credit generation for renewable diesel made from soybean or canola oils. The California Air Resources Board will also consider a one-time tightening of annual carbon reduction targets for gasoline and diesel by 9pc in 2025, compared with the usual 1.25pc annual reduction and a 5pc stepdown first proposed in December 2023, per a 12 August release.
But an unsteady economic landscape for domestic production remains a key decision-driver among US refiners.
Vertex Energy will begin reversing a renewable fuels hydrocracking unit back to conventional fuel feedstocks this quarter at its 88,000 b/d Mobile, Alabama, refinery. The company at the time cited headwinds in the renewable fuels market that it expects to persist through 2025.
Author: Jasmine Davis, Editor, Associate Editor – Oil Products
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Hormuz transits sparse after US-Iran clashes: Update
Hormuz transits sparse after US-Iran clashes: Update
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Iran says Hormuz shut after fresh US attacks
Iran says Hormuz shut after fresh US attacks
London, 12 July (Argus) — Iran's Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) said early on Sunday that the strait of Hormuz would be closed until further notice, after the US carried out another round of strikes on Iranian military targets on 11 July. "The strait of Hormuz will be closed until further notice and until the end of American interventions in this region, and no vessels will be allowed to pass through," the IRGC-affiliated Tasnim news agency said. US Central Command (Centcom) later challenged the closure claim. "The strait of Hormuz is open to all vessels seeking to lawfully transit the international waterway," Centcom said on X. "Iran does not control the strait. Traffic is flowing." The conflicting statements deepen uncertainty over shipping through the key Gulf waterway and raise the risk of renewed disruption to oil and LNG flows from the region. The latest US strikes followed an attack on the containership GFS Galaxy as it transited the strait of Hormuz via the southern route near Oman. Centcom said it began the strikes at 19:15 ET (23:15 GMT) on 11 July, after IRGC forces attacked the Cyprus-flagged vessel. "A civilian crew member is missing and the vessel is unable to continue the journey due to an onboard fire and significant engine-room damage," Centcom said. The vessel was hit nine nautical miles east of the Omani coast, prompting the crew to abandon the ship in a lifeboat. The lifeboat has since been rescued by local authorities, the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said. The vessel appeared to have its AIS tracking switched off at the time. Centcom said the US completed a third round of strikes against Iran on 11 July, hitting about 140 Iranian military targets. Targets included Iranian missile and drone sites, naval capabilities, ammunition storage facilities, communication networks and coastal surveillance locations, it said. In a separate IRGC statement carried by the Sepah news agency early on Sunday, the force claimed its aerospace arm had struck logistics support centres and refuelling platforms linked to US aircraft carriers at Duqm port in Oman. Duqm is a significant distance from the strait of Hormuz and was hit in the early days of the war, but has been less severely affected since. Oman's state news agency also reported drone strikes across Musandam governorate, Oman's northernmost governorate. Oman condemned the attacks, the agency added. Visible AIS data from MarineTraffic showed no traffic through the strait, although vessels may be transiting with tracking systems switched off. But the growing security risk could limit such attempts and threaten the nascent recovery in Gulf crude and product exports. By John Ollett and Rithika Krishna Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US cuts habitat protections for at-risk species
US cuts habitat protections for at-risk species
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Double trouble for Caracas
Double trouble for Caracas
Earthquake recovery takes centre stage, but the same uncertainties about upstream investment wait in the wings, write Carla Bass and Carlos Camacho Caracas, 10 July (Argus) — Venezuela's twin earthquakes in late June left crude and natural gas production infrastructure largely intact, despite killing thousands, even as they shifted the political ground in ways that are still emerging. The country's oil operations are concentrated in the Orinoco heavy oil belt east of Caracas and around Lake Maracaibo to the west — outside areas hardest hit by the quakes, such as the city of La Guaira. The destruction killed more than 3,800, a count that is expected to rise as thousands are still missing. The earthquakes came as Venezuela is trying to rebuild its economy and oil industry in the wake of the US' 3 January incursion.Crude production is continuing apace, most operators say. It climbed to 1.2mn b/d in June from about 1.1mn b/d in prior months, with the government aiming for 3mn b/d in 2030. Efforts to attract inward investment are also expected to continue as planned, industry sources say, although progress here was already slow as investors await greater certainty about operating in the country. Interim president Delcy Rodriguez says oil regulations she approved this week will help provide "resources for the recovery and reconstruction of our country" after the quake. The regulations are meant to implement reforms passed earlier this year to allow firms other than PdV to operate oil fields. They also simplify taxes and trim the state's share of earnings and production — Caracas' take from crude production projects has fallen to 20-35pc for most projects, down sharply from an earlier standard of 83.33pc — and create more defined royalty tiers. But Rodriguez must first get to grips with a country where many citizens want basic disaster recovery to take priority over oil contracts. Disapproval of the Rodriguez administration rose to 63pc in an AtlasIntel-Bloomberg poll conducted on 26-20 June, following the quakes, up from 59pc a month earlier. And 65pc disapprove of the government's earthquake response, according to the same poll. Pressure release The disaster could buy Rodriguez's regime a temporary reprieve from political pressure or catalyse a democratic transition, according to consultancy Teneo's political analyst Nicholas Watson. Most officials who worked under former president Nicolas Maduro — including some wanted by the US for drug trafficking — remain in place. But the US has said it is prioritising stability before moving to free elections. The US has indicated it will reinforce the status quo. This includes not opening a path for opposition leader Maria Corina Machado to visit Venezuela after the disaster, although President Donald Trump later indicated this could change. He has still expressed solidarity with Rodriguez and committed to continue disaster recovery aid, while cutting humanitarian assistance to many other countries. But in any case, investor uncertainty will do more to delay upstream development than earthquake recovery. Both existing and hopeful new producers have lined up to sign initial agreements, but "the push now is to turn those into contracts", one industry source said. Contract models included in the reform are workable if not perfect, industry sources say, but the energy ministry will still have a high level of discretion. Potential newer entrants are also wary about commercialisation of production, which involves selling, for example, lighter crude to PdV and receiving potentially heavier crude or fuel oil as payment in kind. Cash flow also remains a problem. Disbursements of oil revenue that must go via a US Treasury Department fund could be more frequent, some operators say. For now, some Venezuelans' main energy concern is having natural gas supplies for cooking turned back on as pipeline and building inspections continue, if the building was lucky enough to stand. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.