Shifting incentives bring uncertainty, limit liquidity in spot California R99 markets
Summer has brought record low R99 cash prices — and nearly 3.2mn bl of vessel-supplied renewable diesel — to key California distribution hubs, but those seeking to take long-term supply positions must grapple with changing incentive programs and yet unseen consequences for supply flows.
Looking ahead to the end of 2024, the future of RD supply is murky. Changing credit eligibility could discourage the volume of imports the west coast has grown accustomed to, domestic refining margins at the US Gulf coast have been indicated on the decline for much of the year, and a volatile underlying CARB diesel basis increases participants’ exposure to price risk.
Cash prices for R99 at the head of the pipeline (hop) in Los Angeles hit their lowest level in Argus series history on 6 August, when a downturn in the underlying CARB diesel basis pressured values to just $2.35/USG. The price slide, coupled with anecdotally unworkable spreads to local rack prices, weighed heavily on activity this summer, despite a steady stream of offshore shipments.
Deliveries via vessel to northern California in August were the second highest in Argus history at an estimated 741,000 bl — the latest in steady monthly increases since June — per data aggregated from bills of lading and global trade and analytics platform Kpler. Jones Act vessels from the US Gulf coast alone accounted for 448,000 bl, while shipments ex-Singapore constituted the remaining volume.
Southern California received an estimated 847,000 bl, almost evenly split between offshore suppliers and those at the US Gulf coast.
But the future of renewable diesel supply flows into California is mired with uncertainty surrounding incentives for both importers and domestic refiners. The BTC is set to expire with the 2024 calendar year, giving way to the IRA’s Clean Fuel Production Credit. The change would heavily favor US-based renewable diesel production and reduce awards for high-volume offshore imports to the US west coast, the latest pivot for an adolescent market that has struggled to achieve supply equilibrium.
Waterborne renewable diesel deliveries to California ports
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Neste — the leading offshore supplier of US R99 — is also slated to undergo turnarounds at both its Rotterdam, Netherlands, and Singapore facilities this quarter, followed by a second short-term Singapore turnaround in the fourth quarter. But the import lineup so far does not reflect a disruption in deliveries to the US this quarter.
At home, refining margins at the US Gulf coast are indicated on the upswing after narrowing through early August.
Renewable diesel deliveries to the west coast by rail from other US regions reached a record-high of nearly 2mn bl in May, per data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Shipments by vessel are also trending higher, with an estimated 864,000 bl delivered to California in August — the highest since November.
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Spot R99 markets in California were little tested at the end of August, although both the Los Angeles and San Francisco markets drew support from a controversial surprise proposal to limit California Low Carbon Fuel Standard credit generation for renewable diesel made from soybean or canola oils. The California Air Resources Board will also consider a one-time tightening of annual carbon reduction targets for gasoline and diesel by 9pc in 2025, compared with the usual 1.25pc annual reduction and a 5pc stepdown first proposed in December 2023, per a 12 August release.
But an unsteady economic landscape for domestic production remains a key decision-driver among US refiners.
Vertex Energy will begin reversing a renewable fuels hydrocracking unit back to conventional fuel feedstocks this quarter at its 88,000 b/d Mobile, Alabama, refinery. The company at the time cited headwinds in the renewable fuels market that it expects to persist through 2025.
Author: Jasmine Davis, Editor, Associate Editor – Oil Products
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Ampol imports Australia's largest SAF cargo into Sydney
Ampol imports Australia's largest SAF cargo into Sydney
Sydney, 14 May (Argus) — Australian fuel retailer and refiner Ampol imported a cargo of nearly 2mn litres (700t) of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) into Sydney Airport on 7 May, marking the largest ever commercial SAF import into Australia. The fuel — sourced from Malaysia — was imported into Ampol's Kurnell facility near Sydney Airport, where the former's oil refinery has direct pipeline access into the airports refuelling the supply chain. There are no plans to import more SAF cargoes into Sydney Airport in the near term, a source close to the matter said. Ampol's managing director and chief executive officer, Matthew Halliday, said "this delivery marks Ampol's first major import of SAF into Australia and leverages our advanced supply chain infrastructure to deliver this product directly from a key domestic fuel terminal to the nation's busiest airport." Sydney Airport accounts for nearly 40pc of Australia's total jet fuel consumption, according to the airport's chief executive officer Scott Charlton. The announcement came a day after Ampol said it is shifting its focus to electric vehicle charging and renewable fuels , by selling its electricity retail businesses in Australia and New Zealand. Australian airline Qantas is the end user of the imported SAF cargo.The fuel, once blended at a ratio of approximately 18pc, could power the equivalent of 900 flights from Sydney to Auckland on Qantas 737 aircraft, Qantas said. This will cut resulting carbon emissions from those flights by a total estimated 3,400t, it added. Qantas is targeting 10pc of its fuel use to come from SAF by 2030 and approximately 60pc by 2050. Qantas' chief executive officer Vanessa Hudson said "the creation of a SAF industry is key to our efforts towards the decarbonisation of aviation, increasing Australia's fuel security and creating thousands of new jobs across our economy … we pick up 70pc of our fuel in Australia so we're looking forward to working closely with the government to chart the next course for SAF in Australia." This import of SAF follows the signing of an initial agreement between Qantas and Sydney Airport to work together to further facilitate the development of a domestic SAF industry in Australia. If established, domestic SAF production has the potential to contribute approximately A$13bn/yr ($8.4bn/yr) in gross domestic product by 2040, while supporting nearly 13,000 jobs in the feedstock supply chain and creating 5,000 new jobs to build and run the facilities, according to a Qantas and Airbus ICF report published in 2023. Consultations on a potential biofuels mandate in New South Wales (NSW) are expected to begin in the near future. NSW minister for climate change, energy and environment, Penny Sharpe, said "we want to see a strong domestic SAF industry here in NSW, which is a win-win for jobs, fuel security and the planet". By Tom Woodlock Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US budget bill would prolong 45Z, boost crops
US budget bill would prolong 45Z, boost crops
New York, 13 May (Argus) — A proposal from House Republican tax-writers would extend for four additional years a new tax credit for low-carbon fuels and adjust the incentive to be more lenient to crops used for biofuels. Republicans on the House Ways and Means Committee on Monday introduced their draft portion of a far-reaching budget bill, which included various changes to Inflation Reduction Act clean energy subsidies. But the "45Z" Clean Fuel Production Credit, which requires fuels to meet an initial carbon intensity threshold and then ups the subsidy as emissions fall, would be the only incentive from the 2022 climate law to last even longer than Democrats planned under the current draft. The proposal represents an early signal of Republicans' plans for major legislation through the Senate's reconciliation process, which allows budget-related bills to pass with a simple majority vote. The full Ways and Means Committee will consider amendments at a markup this afternoon, and House leaders want the full chamber to vote on the larger budget bill before the US Memorial Day holiday on 26 May. Afterwards, the proposal would head to the Republican-controlled Senate, where lawmakers could float further changes. But the early draft, in a chamber with multiple deficit hawks and climate change skeptics that have pushed for a full repeal of the Inflation Reduction Act, is remarkable for not just keeping but expanding 45Z. The basics of the incentive — offering benefits to producers instead of blenders, throttling benefits based on carbon intensity, and offering more credit to sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) — would remain intact. Various changes would help fuels derived from US crops. The most notable would prevent regulators measuring carbon intensity from considering "indirect land use change" emissions that attempt to quantify the risks of using agricultural land for fuel instead of food. Under current emissions modeling, the typical dry mill corn ethanol plant does not meet the 45Z credit's initial carbon intensity requirement — but substantially more gallons produced today would have a chance at qualifying without any new investments in carbon capture if this bill were to pass. The indirect land use change would also create the possibility for canola-based fuels, which are just slightly too carbon-intensive to qualify for 45Z today, to start claiming some subsidy. Fuels from soybean oil currently qualify but would similarly benefit from larger potential credits. Still, credit values would depend on final regulations and updated carbon accounting from President Donald Trump's administration. Since the House proposal does not address the current law's blunt system for rounding emissions values up and down, relatively higher-carbon corn and canola fuels still face the risk of falling just below 45Z's required carbon intensity threshold but then being rounded up to a level where they receive zero subsidy. The House bill would also restrict eligibility to fuels derived from feedstocks sourced in the US, Canada, and Mexico — an attempt at a middle ground between refiners that have increasingly looked abroad for biofuel inputs and domestic farm groups that have lobbied for 45Z to prioritize US crops. That language would make more durable current restrictions on foreign used cooking oil and significantly reduce the incentive to import tallow from South America and Australia, a loss for major renewable diesel producers Diamond Green Diesel, Phillips 66, and Marathon Petroleum. The provision would also hurt US biofuel producer LanzaJet, which has imported lower-carbon Brazilian sugarcane ethanol as a SAF feedstock to the chagrin of domestic corn ethanol producers. The bill would also require regulators to set more granular carbon intensity calculations for different types of animal manure biogas projects, all of which are treated the same under current rules. Other lifecycle emissions models treat some dairy projects at deeply negative carbon intensities. Those changes to carbon intensity calculations and feedstock eligibility would kick in starting next year, meaning current rules would remain intact for now. The proposal would however phase out the ability of clean energy companies without enough tax liability to claim the full value of Inflation Reduction Act subsidies to sell those tax credits to other businesses. That pathway, known as transferability, would end for clean fuel producers after 2027, hurting small biodiesel producers that operate under thin margins in the best of times as well as SAF startups that were planning to start producing fuel later this decade. Markets unresponsive, but prepare for new possibilities There was little immediate reaction across biofuel, feedstock, and renewable identification number (RIN) credit markets, since the bill could be modified and most of the changes would only take force in the future. But markets may shift down the road. Limiting eligibility to feedstocks originating in North America for instance could continue recent strength in US soybean oil futures markets. July CBOT Soybean oil futures closed 3pc higher on Monday at 49.92¢/lb on the news and have traded even higher today. The spread between soybean oil and heating oil futures is then highly influential for the cost of D4 biomass-based diesel RIN credits, which are crucial for biofuel margins and have recently surged in value to their highest prices in over a year. The more lenient carbon accounting will also help farmers eyeing a long-term future in renewable fuel markets and will support margins for ethanol and biodiesel producers reliant on crops. Corn and soy groups have pushed the government for less punitive emissions tracking, worried that crop demand could wane if refiners could only turn a profit by using lower-carbon waste feedstocks instead. The House bill, if passed, would still run up against contradictory incentives from other governments, including SAF mandates in Europe that restrict fuels from crops and California's efforts to soon limit state low-carbon fuel standard credits for fuels derived from vegetable oils. By Cole Martin and Matthew Cope Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Mexico industrial production contracts in March
Mexico industrial production contracts in March
Mexico City, 13 May (Argus) — Mexico's industrial production contracted by 0.9pc in March from the previous month, as declines in mining and manufacturing were only partly offset by continued growth in construction. The drop was not enough to undo the 2.2pc increase in February — the sharpest monthly expansion in four years — as manufacturers ramped up output ahead of incoming US tariffs. The March industrial production index (IMAI), published by statistics agency Inegi, was higher than Mexican bank Banorte's forecast of a 1.4pc decline. Banorte noted signs of volatility affecting manufacturing and other sectors because of a complex trade outlook. Manufacturing contracted 1.1pc in March after expanding 2.9pc in February. The impact varied across subsectors, with metal goods down 5.5pc and transportation, including auto production, down 1.1pc. Volatility may ease in the coming months as US tariff policies become clearer and Mexican officials push to preserve the country's trade edge under US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade agreement rules, Banorte said. Construction expanded 0.8pc in March, following increases of 3.4pc in February and 0.5pc in January, driven by higher public investment tied to President Claudia Sheinbaum's economic plan, "Plan Mexico." Analysts see the plan as a catalyst for continued growth in construction this year, with measures including greater domestic content in public purchases, public-private participation in infrastructure projects and a target of $100bn in private infrastructure investment for 2025. These effects could be amplified by aggressive interest rate cuts from the central bank. Mining contracted by 2.7pc in March, returning to negative territory after a slight 0.1pc uptick in February. Oil and gas output also contracted 2.7pc after rising 1.0pc the month before, while non-oil mining contracted 4.3pc in March after a 0.6pc increase in February. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Australia's Ampol to focus on EV charging, biofuels
Australia's Ampol to focus on EV charging, biofuels
Sydney, 13 May (Argus) — Australian fuel retailer and refiner Ampol is shifting its focus to electric vehicle (EV) charging and renewable fuels by selling its electricity retail businesses in Australia and New Zealand, it said today. But Ampol will continue to refine oil at its 109,000 b/d Lytton refinery and import oil products. Ampol plans to sell all its shares in Ampol Energy Retail, excluding its EV charging business, to Australian energy retailer AGL Sales, the firm announced in an Australian Securities Exchange statement on 13 May. Ampol is also selling its wholly owned New Zealand energy retailing businesses, Z Energy and Flick Energy, to New Zealand power company Meridian Energy. The firm is simplifying its approach to energy by focusing on the EV charging and renewable fuels sectors, it said. Further details on Ampol's divestment will be provided in its half-yearly results on 18 August 2025, the firm said. Ampol launched its decarbonisation and future energy strategy in May 2021. It has since made plans to complete the Lytton Ultra Low Sulphur Fuels project at the end of 2025 to produce gasoline specifications compliant with the new fuel standard by the Australian Federal Government. The firm has previously expressed the need for long-term policies to support the uptake of renewable fuels and remains committed to progressing its Brisbane renewable fuels study . Ampol plans to reach delivery of 500 EV charging bays in Australia by 2027. Ampol missed its target of 450 charging bays in Australia and New Zealand in 2024, delivering only 315, mainly because of complexities around grid connection and sluggish EV sales. By Grace Dudley and Tom Woodlock Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
