Latest news on the Middle East conflict
Read the latest news stories as they are published.
Iran, US presidents trade peace requirements: Update
Iran, US presidents trade peace requirements: Update
Recasts, with added comments from US president, Adnoc CEO, UK PM London, 1 April (Argus) — The presidents of Iran and the US have each laid out simple conditions required in order for the war to de-escalate, but neither indicated they would take the first step. Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian said late on 31 March that Tehran has the "necessary will" to bring the conflict with the US and Israel to an end, but only once it has ironclad guarantees that they will not attack Iran in the future. On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump said "Iran's new regime president" — presumably Pezeshkian, but this was not specified — has asked Washington for a ceasefire, but said this request would only be considered when Iran reopens shipping through the strait of Hormuz. Until then the US would continue its military campaign, Trump said. Iran has yet to offer any formal response to Trump's latest comments. If true, they would represent a departure from Tehran's recent stance. Iranian officials, including foreign minister Abbas Araqchi, have repeatedly said Iran is not looking for a ceasefire, but wants a total end to hostilities. They have said a ceasefire will allow for the US and Israel to once again regroup and prepare for future attacks. "We do not believe in a ceasefire," Araqchi said. "We believe in ending the war." The US has been claiming negotiations with unidentified Iranian officials since last week, repeatedly remarking on "very good" progress. Iranian officials have consistently denied that any negotiations are underway. Trump is scheduled to address the US to "provide an important update on Iran" at 21:00 ET on Wednesday (02:00 GMT on Thursday), the White House said. He said on 31 March that US forces could leave the region within two to three weeks. Hormuz disruption The war in the Middle East is in a fifth week, with the US and Israel continuing their heavy aerial campaign against numerous targets across Iran. Tehran has been responding to the attacks by launching missiles and drones at Israel and US-linked assets across the Mideast Gulf, including critical energy infrastructure in Gulf Co-operation Council states. Iranian retaliatory attacks on commercial vessels in and around the strait of Hormuz have heavily restricted traffic through the key waterway, severely curtailing exports of crude oil, oil products, LNG, fertilizers and other commodities from the region. Pezeshkian reiterated that the strait is only closed to vessels with links to "Iran's aggressors and their supporters", and several Asian countries, including Malaysia and Thailand, have said in recent days that Tehran has given assurances of safe passage. Pakistan's foreign minister Ishaq Dar said at the weekend that Iran had approved 20 Pakistani-flagged vessels to traverse the strait. Abu Dhabi state-owned Adnoc's chief executive, Sultan al-Jaber, today described the strait's closure as "global extortion", and said "the world must act together to protect the free flow of energy and safeguard economic stability." With the US seemingly preferring other countries to take responsibility for securing the strait, the UK today said it will host this week a meeting of 35 nations' foreign ministers to assess ways of opening the waterway and to make it "accessible and safe after the fighting has stopped". London did not outline which countries are involved, but if they are the same 35 as co-signed a UK letter in mid-March calling for the strait to reopen this would be a new attempt to get an international coalition together. In the early days of the war France said it would create a coalition to secure vessel traffic through Hormuz, but Paris later backtracked on that , in line with the broader EU stance . By Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Iran repeats will to end conflict, but needs guarantees
Iran repeats will to end conflict, but needs guarantees
London, 1 April (Argus) — Iran's president Masoud Pezeshkian said Tehran has the "necessary will" to bring the current conflict with the US and Israel to an end, but only once it gets ironclad guarantees that they will not attack Iran again in the future. "The solution to normalising the situation is to stop their aggressive attacks," Pezeshkian said late on 31 March. "We have not sought tension or war at any point, and we have the necessary will to end this war, provided the essential conditions are met, especially guarantees this aggression will not be repeated." Pezeshkian's comments were made in a telephone call with the president of the European Council, Antonio Costa, to discuss ways to de-escalate a situation that the latter said had become "extremely dangerous". The war in the Middle East is now in its fifth week, with the US and Israel continuing their heavy aerial campaign against numerous targets across Iran. Tehran has been responding to the attacks by launching missiles and drones at Israel and US-linked assets across the Mideast Gulf, including critical energy infrastructure in Gulf Co-operation Council states. Iranian retaliatory attacks on commercial vessels in and around the strait of Hormuz have heavily restricted traffic through the key waterway, severely curtailing exports of crude oil, oil products, LNG, fertilisers and other commodities from the region. "The current situation in the… strait of Hormuz is a direct result of the hostile and aggressive actions of the US and the Zionist regime [Israel] against Iran," Pezeshkian said, reiterating that the strait is only closed to vessels with links to "Iran's aggressors and their supporters". Several Asian countries, including Malaysia and Thailand, have said in recent days that Iran has given assurances of safe passage for their vessels through the strait. Pakistan's foreign minister Ishaq Dar said over the weekend that Iran had also approved 20 Pakistani-flagged vessels to sail through the strait. Pezeshkian's comments came as US president Donald Trump said US forces could leave Iran within two to three weeks, potentially signalling the end of the ongoing war. "All I have to do is leave Iran, and we will be doing that very soon," Trump said late on 31 March, offering a timeline of "maybe two weeks, maybe three". The Trump administration has been claiming negotiations with unidentified Iranian officials since last week, repeatedly boasting of "very good" progress. Iranian officials have consistently denied that any negotiations are underway. But in an apparent change of tack, Trump said ending the war was now not dependent on securing a formal agreement with Tehran. "Iran does not have to make a deal, no," Trump said. "They don't have to make a deal with me." By Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
UK most at risk in Europe from jet and diesel squeeze
UK most at risk in Europe from jet and diesel squeeze
London, 1 April (Argus) — Stock, demand and trade data suggest the UK is the most exposed country in Europe to tightening diesel and jet fuel supply, with Denmark and Portugal also at risk. Short jet fuel (see chart 1) and diesel (see chart 2) trade balances, combined with low stock cover leave these net importers particularly vulnerable if traffic through the strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. Countries where production matches or exceeds consumption — such as Poland and Greece — can operate with lower stocks because they are less reliant on imports. And countries that rely on imports but hold deeper stocks, such as Ireland, are better cushioned against Mideast Gulf supply disruptions. The assessment draws on national statistics reported to the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (Jodi) and the EU's Eurostat, combined with Argus analysis. The conflict in the Middle East is unlikely to see any European country run out of refined oil products entirely because the war limits only part of their import supply. Even the least well-stocked countries have a few weeks of cover if they lost both domestic output and imports. But national stocks could fall to uncomfortably low levels, leading to localised shortages and sharper price swings even where overall stocks remain. The theoretical life expectancy of national stocks offers a simple guide to the relative risk of such local shortages. If Mideast Gulf supply cannot be replaced, and if the impact spreads proportionally across importers, then the UK could exhaust kerosine stocks in three months and gasoil in nine, according to Argus calculations using Jodi data. These categories mainly represent jet fuel and road diesel. Portugal could run out of jet fuel stocks in four months, based on Eurostat data. Hungary could run out in five months, Denmark in six, Italy and Germany in seven, and France and Ireland in eight. Refinery closures have tightened jet fuel balances across western Europe as demand has risen, while diesel balances have been less affected because demand has broadly declined. On road diesel, Denmark could in theory deplete stocks in nine months. Romania could do so in 16 months, Austria in 21 and the Czech Republic in 23. These figures are illustrative rather than forecasts: in practice, stock life would likely converge to some extent as countries with thinner cover would bid higher for imports to slow the depletion of their inventories. Seasonal patterns will also affect stockdraws. Stocks usually fall in spring and autumn because of refinery maintenance, and rise in summer when runs increase. But imports also fluctuate seasonally, so any major disruption could unsettle normal trends. In Portugal's case, jet fuel stocks should cover this spring because its only refinery got its maintenance work out the way last year. But Portugal usually resumes jet imports around May, mainly from the Mideast Gulf. If tanker traffic through the strait of Hormuz is still heavily restricted by then, its jet stocks could decline rapidly. Poland holds very low jet fuel stocks but is close to self-sufficient, producing roughly what it consumes. It had less than one month of cover at the end of 2025 — the lowest among major EU states — but it need not draw stocks unless refinery issues arise or higher international prices pull product across borders. Both risks are real: Poland's two largest refineries face heavy maintenance this year, and its national balance masks the fact that it regularly imports and exports jet fuel across different borders. If those flows fall out of balance, Poland's thin stocks could drain. Ireland is fully dependent on jet fuel imports, as its sole refinery does not produce jet. But its deep stocks — nearly four months of cover — would cushion a complete loss of supply. By Benedict George Chart 1 Chart 2 Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Northeast US diesel exports surge to Europe
Northeast US diesel exports surge to Europe
Houston, 31 March (Argus) — After historically jet fuel import-reliant New York briefly became a net exporter last week, traders have turned their attention to moving diesel cargoes across the Atlantic to satisfy European demand. A sharp rise in northwest European jet fuel prices this month triggered the first New York Harbor jet exports in nearly two years . With that arbitrage window opening, traders are now evaluating similar opportunities for ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD). German-Rotterdam fob barge 10ppm diesel typically trades at a discount to New York Harbor (NYH), but the pattern has flipped several times this month. As of Monday, northwest European diesel at $4.60/USG carried a 24¢/USG premium to New York Harbor values at $4.36/USG. Kpler tracking data showed six ULSD cargoes bound for Europe have departed NYH over the past six business days, with at least two additional vessels loaded and awaiting declared destinations as of Tuesday. Altogether, this emerging transatlantic diesel flow represents nearly 2mn bl of supply heading toward Europe from the northeastern US and represents the highest northeast diesel export figure since September 2024. By Craig Ross Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
