The Australian federal government has revised down its average hard coking coal price for 2015 and lifted its export expectations.
The Office of the Chief Economist (OCE), which has taken over the forecasting role of the Bureau of Resource and Energy Economics, cut its 2015 average hard coking coal price to $116/t fob Australia from a previous forecast of $120/t made three months ago. It now predicts coking coal prices to stabilise at $114/t fob Australia in 2015-dollar terms until 2020.
The weakening Australian dollar will help Australian mining firms to compete globally, while metallurgical coal exports from Australia will grow at 2mn-4mn t/yr each year until 2020 when they will reach 205mn t/yr.
The OCE revised up its forecast for Australian coking coal exports in 2015 to 189mn t from its previous guidance of 185mn t/yr. This upwards revision followed actual exports for 2014 coming in 6mn t ahead of the forecast at 186mn t/yr.
joc/rjd
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