The Romanian government has approved a decision on precautionary measures over the next four weeks that can be taken "against the background of a crisis in the energy market", including halting exports.
Bulgaria and Greece have already stopped exports this week to ensure system security amid severe weather conditions in the region.
Romania could cancel or curtail its exports to ensure domestic supply security, according to a decision adopted by the government in response to extreme conditions straining the system.
Romania could also take measures to limit consumption by industrial users, although this would not affect households. The precautionary measures will be in place over 16 January-15 February, and will only be enacted "if public safety or the power system is threatened", the government said.
Exports have been running at 925MW on average so far this month, falling to 390MW on 5 January, but are still above the 880MW in the first 11 days of January last year. Exports averaged just over 1GW in December 2016.
The government decision comes after grid operator Transelectrica notified the energy ministry and regulator Anre on 11 January about "the imminent appearance of a crisis in the functioning of the power network" amid weakening hydrological conditions, cold weather and any unplanned power plant outages.
Temperatures in Bucharest are forecast to reach minimums of minus 6-12°C next week, compared with seasonal norms of minus 4-5°C.
Transelectrica forecasts average base-load demand for next week at 8.33GW, with the highest level on 18 January at 8.42GW, peaking at 9.5GW in the evening. Demand rose to a record high of 8.61GW for base load on 10 January. And river flow levels on the Romanian Danube at Bazias are forecast to drop to 2,200 m³/s next week compared with a seasonal norm of 4,950 m³/s for January. Hydropower generation has stepped up this week to meet the increased demand, although hydro reservoirs are likely to have been affected by the lower river flow levels.
Total Romanian export net transfer capacity is set to remain at 1.5GW for the rest of this month, with the highest levels on the Hungarian and Serbian borders at 600MW and 550MW, respectively. Hungarian and Serbian spot prices have already hit record highs this week as the extreme weather conditions, as well as a halt to Greek exports cutting inflows from the south, have tightened the supply-demand balance. Bulgaria also halted its exports from today, although transit flows through the country are still permitted.
A 100MW unit at the Iernut gas-fired power plant is due to remain off line in an unplanned outage until 16 January, while a 330MW unit at the Turceni coal-fired plant is due to remain off line until tomorrow, according to the latest schedules from Transelectrica.
Romania has seen a strong increase in gas consumption during the cold snap, at 70mn m³/d on average, according to the energy ministry, and in the event that gas supply outstrips demand, some power plants would be switched to running fuel oil. The energy ministry previously said the switch could apply to thermal plants operated by Elcen Bucharest, Galati Electrocentrale and Veolia Prahova.
