DBCT coal vessel waiting times back to a month long

The vessel queue waiting to access the Dalrymple Bay Coal Terminal (DBCT) in Australia's Queensland has grown to 44 today from 31 at the start of July, as the port struggles to meet firm demand amid maintenance and rail disruptions.

The waiting time for vessels in the queue outside DBCT is back up to around a month, which is the same level seen in December when delays at the port were a factor in pushing hard coking coal prices above $250/t fob Australia. The ship queue has increased to 44 vessels, just short of the 47 in December and more than double the average of 18-20 vessels.

Other Queensland coal ports, including Gladstone, Hay Point and Abbot Point, all have fairly normal shipping queues, but shipowners cannot easily switch between the Queensland ports. DBCT is the second-largest coal port in the state at a capacity of 85mn t/yr.

Premium hard coking coal prices have rallied to $185/t fob Australia from $173/t at the start of the month.

DBCT has been disrupted by maintenance as one shiploader was initially planned to have maintenance from 8 July to early August but completion was later extended for a week until 14 August. This information was made public to customers only on 9 August. DBCT Management has not replied to queries on the matter.

The situation has alarmed some buyers in Asia as it is similar to the DBCT congestion that drove prices higher late last year, although there is some optimism that the vessel queues will shorten soon.

"It looks like a very serious situation, but if we see the queues start to decline from here then I guess we have nothing to worry about," an Indian buyer said.

DBCT is also the port most likely to be affected by recent maintenance changes at rail network owner Aurizon. DBCT has small stocks and depends on just in time rail deliveries from mine sites. The Goonyella rail line that services it is the part of the network that has been most affected by the new Aurizon maintenance system. Aurizon increased its coal haulage forecast for 2018-19, implying that it can manage the disruption caused by the rail maintenance changes over the year.

DBCT Management at the end of last year blamed overallocation from mining firms in previous months for the lengthening of the vessel queue. This may again be a factor, as mining firms may have overallocated in June in an attempt to ship extra coal before the end of the month.

DBCT shipped 5.63mn t in July, down from 5.99mn t in June and from 5.82mn t in July 2017. The port has the capacity to ship 7.08mn t/month and hit 6.95mn t in August 2017 but it has only broken 6mn t/month in just two months this year. DBCT ships around 75pc coking coal and 25pc thermal coal.

The BHP Mitsubishi operated adjacent coking coal port of Hay Point shipped 4.26mn t in July, up from 4.25mn t in June and from 4.06mn t in July 2017. Shipments from Abbot Point rose to 2.58mn t from 2.37mn t in June and 2.37mn t in July 2017, while shipments from the state's biggest coal port of Gladstone fell to 5.78mn t in July from 6.33mn t in June and from 6.05mn t in July 2017.

Total shipments from the four Queensland coal ports fell to 18.25mn t in July from 19.14mn t in June and from 18.3mn t in July 2017. Shipments for the four ports were 123.13mn t for January-July, up from 110.67mn t in the same period last year when Cyclone Debbie disrupted shipments in April.