Indonesian coal prices gained for the fifth consecutive week on extended buying interest from Chinese utilities. A firm price outlook in the physical market also spurred trade in the ICI 4 derivatives market, where 100,000t cleared on the CME.
Among this week's ICI 4 trades, a 20,000t May clip traded at $50/t on 19 April. The contract also traded further along the curve, with a number of third and fourth-quarter contracts cleared on the CME — at $42.60-47.50/t and $41.5-$42.50/t, respectively — indicating a slightly weaker price outlook for the coming months. May and June futures were last assessed by Argus at $50.20/t and $48.30/t, respectively, yesterday, when second and third-quarter futures were assessed at $48.75/t and $44.75/t, respectively.
Domestic supply in China is tight because of stricter mine safety inspections following recent accidents. Efforts by utilities to build stocks ahead of the high-demand summer period supported seaborne prices.
Some Chinese utilities were heard to have issued tenders recently for low to-mid calorific value (CV) Indonesian coal. Chinese buyers' ability to buy Indonesian coal at higher prices has edged out other buyers. One utility was said to be seeking at least 200,000t of thermal coal with CV in a NAR 3,400-5,000 kcal/kg range for May delivery. Stockpiles at China's main Qinhuangdao coal transshipment port passed the 4mn t mark today, down by over 10pc from the previous week, underscoring the shortages.
In the low-CV Indonesian market, two May-loading geared Supramax cargoes of GAR 4,200 kcal/kg (NAR 3,800 kcal/kg) coal traded at $49.50/t and $51/t fob Kalimantan. Two June-loading cargoes traded at $48.50/t and $50/t, indicating a backwardated market. The GAR 4,200 kcal/kg price was assessed at $50.20/t fob Kalimantan, up by $2.51/t on the week.
Elsewhere, a number of May-loading Panamax cargoes of GAR 5,000 kcal/kg (NAR 4,600 kcal/kg) coal changed hands in a $70.50-$76/t fob Kalimantan range. Prices were assessed $3.29/t higher on the week, at $73.07/t fob Kalimantan.
Cfr India prices jump
Delivered India prices also rose, in line with higher fob values, with the market further supported by elevated freight rates.
There were still some enquiries for pre-monsoon cargoes, but the surge in Covid-19 cases could erode demand for imported thermal coal, with widening curbs to contain the spread of the virus limiting some industrial activity and weighing on the power consumption outlook.
A number of industries, from manufacturing to construction, in several parts of India are scaling back operations to meet stringent directives from local authorities amid rising infections. Work at construction sites is being hampered as labourers return from major cities to their homes. But unlike last year, the federal government has ruled out a nationwide lockdown.
The cfr India NAR 5,500 kcal/kg price rose by $3.72/t on the week to $82.38/t, supported by higher freight rates and stable fob values in South Africa.
The cfr east coast India GAR 4,200 kcal/kg price was assessed at $65.83/t, up by $4.54/t from the previous week. The cfr east coast India GAR 5,000 kcal/kg price rose by $4.25/t to $86.72/t. The delivered west coast India price for GAR 4,200 kcal/kg coal increased by $4.87/t to $66.31/t, while the cfr west coast GAR 5,000 kcal/kg price was assessed $4.63/t higher, at $87.63/t.
