US natural gas prices for delivery through 2029 and beyond were almost entirely unresponsive to the re-election of former Republican president Donald Trump, although this may largely reflect a lack of market liquidity more than two years into the future.
Nymex gas for delivery at the US benchmark Henry Hub in Louisiana for calendar years 2025-29 settled only marginally higher on Wednesday afternoon than they did the day before. Wednesday prices settled hours after the Associated Press declared Trump the president-elect, while Tuesday prices settled the afternoon of Election Day, when Trump and Democratic vice-president Kamala Harris were still widely considered to have a similar chance of victory.
The small increase in US gas prices from 2025-29 roughly tracked the prompt-month price increase, which mostly reflected small shifts in near-term weather forecasts.
Nymex gas for December delivery at the Henry Hub on Wednesday rose by 2.9pc to settle at $2.747/mmBtu. The 2025-calendar strip increased by 1.9pc to $3.059/mmBtu, while the 2026 strip rose by 0.9pc to $3.598/mmBtu, the 2027 strip rose by 1.3pc to $3.70/mmBtu, the 2028 strip rose by 1pc to $3.623/mmBtu, and the 2029 strip rose by 1.7pc to $3.519/mmBtu.
Though it was not reflected in the market, Trump has proposed energy policies affecting the US gas industry that would be starkly different from that of Harris, or Democratic president Joe Biden. For instance, Trump has pledged to "immediately" approve LNG export terminals held up by Biden's pause on the issuance of LNG export licenses to countries with which the US does not have a free trade agreement (non-FTA). As such, some US LNG project developers foresee higher US LNG export capacity in 2027 and beyond as Trump accelerates the pace at which new terminals can commence operations.
Some US gas producers also see Trump's re-election as good for business.
"There's a good chance that the Trump administration will be good for the energy industry: generally a better regulatory environment to operate in," National Fuel Gas chief executive David Bauer said today.
But while US gas prices might have reasonably been expected to reflect a new administration's starkly different approach to LNG permitting, it is also plausible that any increase to US LNG export capacity would simply be matched by a commensurate increase in US gas production, largely cancelling out the effect on domestic prices.
"Despite the rhetoric, there are just a bunch of fundamentals that aren't affected by political decisions," US advocacy group LNG Allies chief executive Fred Hutchison tells Argus.
Other proposed policy changes could add additional pressure to US gas prices, in either direction. For instance, while removing renewable tax credits could boost demand for gas-fired electricity generation, boosting prices, deregulating coal-fired generation could reduce gas demand, weighing on prices, FactSet senior energy analyst Connor McLean said.
But the small number of transactions in 2027 and beyond for US gas may also mean that the market is not reflecting a shift in expectations for prices in those years. Only 1,074 Nymex gas contracts were traded on Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group venues on Wednesday for delivery on months in 2027, compared to 260,320 contracts in 2025 and 19,770 contracts in 2026.
