Iranian gas flows to Turkey stepped up in the second quarter, despite maintenance and conflict in the region, and Turkish regulator EPDK has provided further detail on imports from Turkmenistan.
Turkey's direct gas imports from Iran have steadily increased from a low of 3mn m³/d in February to 24mn m³/d in April and just under 26mn m³/d in May.
Turkish state-run Botas and Iran's state-owned NIGC have a 9.6bn m³/yr supply agreement that expires in July 2026. Cold weather weighed on Iranian exports in first-quarter 2024, resulting in total deliveries to Turkey falling short of the contract at 7bn m³ for the year. Deliveries totalled 2.5bn m³ in January-May 2024. Although falling year on year, Iran was still able to deliver 2.2bn m³ to Turkey in the same period this year, thanks to recent increase in deliveries, despite technical and geopolitical hurdles.
Maintenance at Iran's South Pars field began in late April and likely lasted several weeks. South Pars alone delivers more than three-quarters of Iran's gas output. Based on the 2023 Energy Institute's Statistical Review of World Energy and subsequent investments, the field produces around 260bn m³/yr. The Iranian government claimed in June 2024 it had increased natural gas production by 30mn m³/d, reaching approximately 850mn m³/d, equalling 310bn m³/yr. But Israel attacked the South Pars facilities on 14 June and disabled operations for nearly two weeks.
Although the Turkish regulator will publish June data at the end of August, Iran may have freed up some gas for export because of low household heating needs in recent months. Strong heating demand in February had reduced available supply for export.
And while Iran meets over 90pc of its electricity demand from power plants that run on natural gas or heavy liquid fuels like diesel and mazut, according to oil ministry data, traders say power sector demand is much lower than household heating demand.
Turkey's own summer gas use drops to about a third of that in winter, significantly reducing import needs. High demand last winter drove brisk LNG deliveries. Turkey's total gas consumption reached 22.3bn m³ in the first quarter of this year, up from 18.6bn m³ last year. Unplanned upstream maintenance at Azerbaijan's Shakh Deniz field in January and strong heating demand in Iran, which reduced flows, significantly lifted Turkey's LNG imports. As a result, Turkey was Europe's top LNG importer in both January and February.
But Turkey received only five LNG cargoes in June and just three so far in July, six of which were delivered under a long-term contract with Algeria's Sonatrach.
Turkmen flows could bolster overall imports from Iran
EPDK has adjusted figures for Turkmen deliveries in March, having not previously published this data, with total deliveries at 362mn m³ in March-May.
Turkey and Turkmenistan signed a supply agreement in February that envisioned delivering up to 1.3bn m³/yr of gas starting from 1 March this year, potentially followed by 2bn m³/yr over five years. The deal planned to route Turkmen volumes to northern Iran, with Iran swapping the gas and delivering it to Turkey at the 34mn m³/d Gurbulak entry point.
Turkmen inflows were 3.9mn m³/d in March-May. That meant Turkey had purchased 362mn m³ of the 1.3bn m³ potential Turkmen volume by the start of June, according to the latest data. If inflows continue at this pace, up to 835mn m³ more Turkmen gas could arrive through Gurbulak by the end of the year. Botas has already secured enough capacity at the point to more than accommodate this additional supply.
Even if Iranian exports to Turkey half in June from a year earlier because of Israeli strikes, and hold the same amount below 2024 over the rest of the year as in January-May, total deliveries could still reach 6bn m³. And if Turkmen deliveries continue at their daily rate in March-May over the rest at year, total deliveries could be around 1.2bn m³. This could raise imports at the Gurbulak interconnection point by 3pc on the year to 7.2bn m³ in 2025, which aligns with EPDK's projected consumption growth for this year.
This would also be slightly up from deliveries of 7bn m³ last year and suggest little scope for Turkey to need to source alternative volumes because of Iranian supply availability. That said, there may be an additional call on other sources, including LNG, at times of high demand, as there was earlier this year.
