Resource-rich Bolivia picked two politically right-leaning presidential candidates to move to a run-off vote after its Sunday general elections, as polls had indicated, but voters did provide one upset.
Rodrigo Paz, of the center-right Christian Democrat party, placed first in the race with 32.1pc. A current senator and son of former president Jaime Paz (1989-93), Paz was in single digits in the final polls.
Placing second was former president Jorge Quiroga (2001-2002), leading a right-wing coalition, with 26.9pc. In third was Samuel Doria, also on the right, and considered a frontrunner throughout the race. He received 19.9pc. Candidates of two factions of the ruling Movement to Socialism party received a combined 11.25pc. Current president Luis Arce passed on reelection.
Under Bolivian law, the top two finishers move to a runoff if no candidate wins a clear majority. Paz and Quiroga will face off on 19 October.
The election will end two decades of socialist rule in Bolivia, a key player in the natural gas sector and potential giant in lithium and critical minerals.
The next administration will have to make tough calls on state-run firms and relations with the US, strained since 2008.
Paz and Quiroga have proposed maintaining strategic companies, including the state-run oil company, YPFB, and lithium company, YLB, but reduce the footprint.
YPFB provided neighbors Argentina and Brazil with piped gas for decades, but no longer supplies Argentina and, while it has a contract with Brazil for 20mn m³/d of gas, production has fallen too low to meet that target.
Bolivia's output was 30mn m³/d of gas in May, according to the statistics agency. Domestic demand is 13mn m³/d. Proven gas reserves were at 4.5 Tcf in 2023.
Bolivia produced 17,920 b/d crude, down from a 51,000 b/d peak in 2014, requiring it to import increasing amounts of crude and refined products. Its fuel import bill this year will top $2bn, and both remaining candidates support reducing or eliminating fuel subsidies.
Bolivia has 23mn tonnes of lithium resources, among the highest in the world, but YLB produces almost no lithium. The Arce government signed contracts with a Chinese consortium, CBC, and a Russian firm, Uranium One Group, to tap its brine lithium, but congress has yet to approve them. A congressional committee voted on 13 August to forward the Russian contract to the full congress for a vote, but the path forward is unclear.
The parties of the top three candidates will control the 130-member lower house and 36-member senate.
