Trump's stance may open up leadership opportunities for China, but states such as California have other ideas, writes Michael Ball
US president Donald Trump's increased antagonism towards climate action since his return to office has left a void to be filled by other nations, or even by individual US states, at next month's Cop 30 UN climate summit in Brazil.
Trump curtailed US involvement in UN talks during his first term in office but still sent a modest delegation to Cop 23 in Bonn, Germany. In addition, Trump's administration during his first term mainly sought to weaken, but not repeal, regulations to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. But in his second term, Trump has shown a desire to go even further. He used his recent appearance at the UN General Assembly to effectively accuse other countries of falling victim to a massive hoax, leaving little doubt as to where he stands on climate change.
"It's the greatest con job ever perpetrated on the world, in my opinion," Trump said. "If you don't get away from this green scam, your country is going to fail." That view has informed the actions taken by Trump and his allies this year so far. He has again pulled the US out of the Paris climate agreement, sought to slash funding for related UN programmes, impeded renewable energy development, threatened states with legal action and proposed repealing US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulations for power plants and passenger vehicles.
All this makes it unlikely that the US will try to play a constructive role at Cop 30, something Brazilian officials say could complicate the talks. If anything, the US may try to "undermine global co-operation in the energy transition", former US presidential climate adviser John Podesta said in May.
Podesta and others say Trump has left an opening for China to step up its role in the talks. A day after Trump's "hoax" comments, China unveiled its new emissions pledge. The US State Department did not respond to a request for comment.
The return of Trump could put US states with their own climate policies back into the spotlight. Their message, as in 2017, will be that the US is pushing ahead, even if the federal government is not.
"California is still in it. We are stepping forward with the legislature, with the governor. And from a policy perspective, progress continues in California," California Air Resources Board (CARB) chair Liane Randolph said last month, just before exiting her post. Randolph's comments came about a week after California's Democratic governor, Gavin Newsom, and state lawmakers agreed to extend the state's cap-and-trade programme to 2045. CARB, led by Randolph's successor, will spend the next year crafting regulations to implement that legislation, after which it will work with partner Quebec to add Washington state's programme to their Western Climate Initiative (WCI) market.
State of play
In addition, the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) — a CO2 trading programme for power plants in 10 northeastern US states — plans to set a more aggressive emissions cap and implement other market changes starting in 2027. Waiting in the wings is New York state, which continues to work on its own economy-wide trading programme, while lawmakers in Oregon have again raised the possibility of crafting one that could join the WCI.
Ironically, Trump's push to abandon federal policies could lead to even greater state action. The EPA wants to repeal its endangerment finding for GHG emissions, which would largely absolve it of the responsibility to issue any climate-related regulations. RGGI representative for trade body the International Emissions Trading Association, Justin Johnson, sees its members stepping up — "RGGI states would take that loss of the endangerment finding and say, ‘OK, it's now very clear to us that legally, the federal government cannot do this, so it's on us.'"
