Mexico's trade deficit widened to $2.4bn in September, as trade of non-petroleum goods swung to a deficit amid overall record imports.
The trade deficit expanded from $1.94bn in August, according to preliminary trade data statistics agency Inegi published Monday.
The wider deficit largely reflects the deficit in oil-related products widening to $2.72bn in September from $2.24bn in August, as well as the balance in non-oil trade swinging to a $128mn deficit from a $293mn surplus in August.
Imports reached an all-time high at $58.9bn in September, up 2.1pc from August, while exports expanded 1.4pc from the previous month to $56.5bn.
Non-oil exports rose to $54.82bn in September from $54.08bn in August, with the value of manufacturing exports growing to $52.37bn in September from $51.71bn a month earlier. Yet, auto-related exports decreased in September to $15.39bn from $16.16bn in August.
US tariffs have weighed on manufacturing exports, particularly of autos and parts, and pressure could increase when a 90-day pause on the planned tariff increase to 30pc from 25pc, originally set for 1 August, expires at the end of October unless a new US-Mexico trade deal is reached.
Last week, Mexico economy minister Marcel Ebrard indicated a "90pc advance" on a deal that would halt the increase with ongoing dialogue focused on softening the tariffs impacts on metals, agricultural products, and –more recently– heavy vehicles.
Reaching a deal would add stability to bilateral trade and bring confidence into upcoming USMCA negotiations, said Mexican bank Banorte.
Banorte added the trade balance in coming months would be determined by agreements on the trade front, as well as, new legislation in Mexico.
Congress approved last week the reform of Mexico's customs law, which will come into force in January 2026, digitizing port entry and customs clearance processes, as well as tightening penalties for tax evasion and other improper practices. The private sector has warned that the new customs process will involve additional costs and longer operating times and has therefore urged that the corresponding regulations be published.
Mexico is also considering legislation that would adjust tariffs and raise the tariff on imported Chinese vehicles to 50pc from 20pc, among other changes.
Oil-related exports reached $1.67bn in September — up from $1.64bn in August, including $1.22bn in crude sales and $444mn in refined products. Crude export volumes rose to 653,000 b/d in September from 594,000 b/d in August, holding well below the 699,000 b/d exported in September 2024.
Mexico's crude export mix averaged $62.45/bl in September, down $0.48/bl from in August and lower by $3.70/bl from the year-earlier level.
US-Mexico trade volume reached $115.4bn in September, the highest absolute volume for any month on record, having expanded 77pc from the launch of the USMCA free trade agreement with US, Mexico and Canada in July 2020.
Growth in exports has proven resistant to the 25pc blanket tariffs the US first applied on Mexican goods in March, with September exports up 7.4pc in value from the same month last year.
With these results, the accumulated deficit from January to September stood at $2.93bn, with a $18.84bn deficit in the oil component and a $15.91bn surplus in non-oil trade. This compares to a trade deficit of $19.47bn in the first nine months of 2024.
