Mexico has approved a new national climate plan as part of the UN Cop 30 summit in Belem, Brazil, setting an absolute cap on greenhouse gas emissions for the first time.
The updated nationally determined contribution (NDC) commits Mexico to limit emissions to 364–404mn t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) by 2035 under its own resources, and to 332–363mn t CO2e with international support, Mexican environmental minister Alicia Barcena said. The target with support represents a cut of more than 50pc compared with a business-as-usual scenario and aligns with its pledge to reach net zero by 2050, the government said.
The plan, which had not been updated since 2022, includes five key components, including mitigation — cutting emissions — and adaptation, or adjusting to climate change where possible. It also included a loss and damage component, which refers to the unavoidable impacts of climate change. The NDC introduces the problems of climate security and social resilience and includes principles of gender equality, human rights and a just transition for workers in carbon-intensive sectors.
Mexico's energy and environment ministries said the NDC aims to integrate climate action with economic development, job creation and social equity. But analysts warn that meeting the targets will require structural reforms and significant investment in low-carbon technologies.
"Mexico's new climate plan stands among the most ambitious new climate targets from a major emitter, charting a path toward a stronger, more inclusive and resilient economy," said Francisco Barnes Regueiro, executive director of the environmental non-governmental organization the World Resources Institute in Mexico on Tuesday.
"Mexico's ambition is clear, but delivering on these goals will require deep structural transformation and a clear, sustained investment strategy," he added.
The announcement comes as Brazil, host of Cop 30, urges countries to submit more ambitious climate plans. Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in September called on developed nations to accelerate net-zero targets and expand support for developing countries, saying Cop 30 must focus on implementation rather than pledges.
Mexico joins more than 50 countries that have updated their NDCs ahead of the summit. The EU, Canada, Norway and Switzerland have also pledged to align their plans with the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C goal.
Policy contradiction
But Mexico's new climate pledge contrasts with its continued support for fossil fuels, particularly its crude oil and refined fuels production, as well as its reliance on natural gas for electricity production.
The government has continuously backed policies and wide-ranging reforms that favor state-owned Pemex and utility CFE over private-sector companies, without directly requiring the companies to shift to cleaner energies.
Critics argue that these measures undermine private investment and complicate Mexico's ability to meet its climate targets. "Mexico continues to spend more on sustaining the past than building the future," said Isabel Studer, president of sustainability group Sostenibilidad Global, in a recent statement.
