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TTF front-month contract hits 18-month low

  • Mercados: Natural gas
  • 14/11/25

The TTF front-month market was on Thursday at its lowest in a year and a half, as mild weather and ample LNG supply have weighed on the price well into the winter season.

The contract closed at €30.45/MWh on Thursday, the lowest since €29.65/MWh on 15 May 2024. A combination of strong LNG deliveries boosting sendout in Europe and mild weather have weighed on the TTF front-month market, despite the overall rise in European gas demand in line with typical seasonal progression.

And a spike in LNG charter rates contributed to the recent fall. Higher shipping costs make delivering LNG cargoes to Asia more expensive relative to delivering to Europe because of longer journey times, and allows European importers to lower their bids while keeping Atlantic supply within the basin. Argus' ARV5 spot charter rate for LNG round trips from the US Gulf coast to northwest Europe by two-stroke carrier rose to $85,000/d on 13 November, up from $30,000/d on 17 October. The corresponding ARV4 Pacific basin round-trip rate rose to $55,000/d from $22,000/d in the same period. A cargo from the US Gulf takes 11 days to arrive to Milford Haven port in the UK compared with 24 days to deliver to Incheon in South Korea.

Thursday's low took place in the context of little price volatility in recent months, with prices trading in a €30.45-33.38/MWh range and at a €31.74/MWh average since 1 October. Market participants' confidence in a comfortable balance this winter has led to little TTF price movement in recent months.

The TTF front-month rebounded on Friday however and traded at €31.035/MWh on the Ice exchange at 16:30 GMT. A combination of factors contributed to Friday's increase. The Argus northeast Asian (ANEA) LNG delivered price at the Singapore close rose on the day on the back of the higher freight rates, temperature forecasts in western Europe were revised down, and some market participants pointing to a declaration from German chancellor Friedrich Merz that the EU is preparing new sanctions against Russia.


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