Pakistan's DAP stocks slipped by 169,000t over November as yearly demand peaked while imports were close to nil as existing stocks were considered above average.
Pakistan opened November with 361,000t of DAP in stock and produced 64,000t last month, National Fertilizer Development Centre (NFDC) data show. Inventories at the start of November were above the 318,000t average for the month in 2020-24.
But imports were only 3,000t of DAP last month, down from the 2020-24 November average of 109,000t. Importers have mostly refrained from taking more DAP after opening stocks at the start of the October-March rabi season were well above normal. Downwards pressure started to build on domestic DAP prices during October, meaning importers were wary about committing to more product at the risk of being caught out in a falling market.
November demand seasonally climbed to its highest in a year at 245,000t, only slightly below the 268,000t November five-year average. Farmers sourced more DAP for wheat application, the most important and most phosphate-intensive crop in Pakistan.
The boost in offtake pressured stocks down to 192,000t, their lowest since March. But this remains above the 139,000t figure a year before, owing to the high rabi-opening stocks.
The high season typically dissipates in the second half of December. Using December-opening stocks and NFDC production, imports and offtake estimates for December, stocks are expected to end the calendar year at 114,000t.
Importers will need to buy more DAP the first quarter if Pakistan is to return stocks to a comfortable level of around 200,000t. Fauji has 40,000t of Moroccan DAP arriving in January, and several importers are in the market although probably not to the degree to warrant a full DAP cargo. And most importers are focusing on trying to sell DAP domestically, offering discounts for prompt sales against a backdrop of falling domestic prices and demand.
