France enters 2026 with power prices in a slump, as stagnant demand meets strong nuclear availability and ever-increasing renewables output.
Forward prices are well below spot delivery in recent years, with the Cal-26 contract assessed at €49.75/MWh on Tuesday, compared with spot delivery of about €60/MWh in 2024 and 2025. Lower gas prices explain some of the low forward prices, as does increased renewables capacity, but French hydro reserves are well below previous years, and EdF expects to produce less nuclear power year on year because of further planned long maintenance shutdowns.
If low spot delivery confirms that these forward prices were correct as to how fundamentals would play out, it could limit any potential for upside risk. And the course of any potential demand recovery over the next few years will determine whether the contango shape of the French forward years is justified by fundamentals.
The French yearly contracts are unusual with Europe being in contango, rising out to the end of the decade, compared with most other countries which are in backwardation. Fundamentals arguments put forward to explain this include expectations of increased interconnection to more expensive markets, or an uptick in demand, especially from industry and data centres.
But demand has remained stubbornly flat over recent years. Industrial, data centre and hydrogen projects with a total demand of 30GW have grid capacity reserved for them. If all of these projects came to light and used their full capacity, demand would leap by 180TWh by 2030, or about 40pc.
Not all of these projects will be built, and those that are will not use their full capacity all the time. Grid operator RTE's high estimate is for 60pc of projects to be completed, which will then use only 20-60pc of their grid capacity. But even if only some of them are built, this could push demand growth to 1-3pc/yr. RTE's low estimate for the incremental demand from these projects by 2030, as well as additional electric vehicles, comes to 2.7GW, while its high estimate is for 6.3GW of incremental demand.
A rapid increase in demand could outpace supply gains from the several GW/yr of solar capacity likely to come on line in the coming years, mechanically tightening France's balance, if it is met and there is not a fall in demand from other sectors.
France may be reaching a crunch point on renewables. The ambition of governments of recent years to advance on renewables and nuclear has hit the buffers, as the lack of any demand growth removes justification for increasing capacity.
Low market prices are an indication that France does not particularly need any extra renewables capacity in the short term. Capture rates for solar have fallen year on year, while lower market prices mean the bill for public subsidy for renewables grows ever higher. Some increases are locked in over the next few years, but appetite may be lacking to continue growth beyond that.
And political obstacles could make a low-renewables strategy easier. Right-wing parties are firmly opposed to renewables, and the government relies on their tacit support to remain in office.
The government intends to publish the PPE3 10-year energy strategy by the end of the year, which in this draft includes cuts to renewables targets, it has said.
The other big dossier of French energy is the new nuclear programme. EdF has already started preparatory works to build two 1.6GW reactors at Penly, and plans to build a further four, with eight more on the drawing board.
But the experience of the Flamanville 3 reactor — entering service more than a decade late and many billions over budget — could make any government hesitate before offering EdF funding for more reactors. This is all the more true if prices remain low in the coming years, which would cut EdF's ability to fund large investments and require more government support. The mooted €100/MWh price point of the new nuclear, more than twice the current market price, is a further impediment. And the programme is not expected to come into service until the late 2030s at the earliest, meaning a government which holds fire can spare itself large costs without incurring any power shortage during its term in office.
