Continued uncertainty over the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and its ultimate additional costs for cement and clinker imports into the EU is helping keep fob Turkey cement and clinker prices stable.
Turkish cement producers are keeping offers steady and are likely to continue to do so for at least the first half of this year, one Mediterranean cement exporter said, as CBAM-related uncertainties are likely to keep export volumes to the EU low for at least the first quarter.
"Reducing prices will not bring extra volume, as the majority of customers took this already into account," the cement maker said. "Once they feel the scarcity of material in the market, then we will all see if prices start to move."
At that point, Turkish producers may start to make spot offers, depending on the volume of their term commitments. But overall, exporters were not aggressively seeking new orders.
At the same time, "costs are more or less flat," he said.
CBAM impacts remain unknown as policy takes effect
The EU's CBAM policy took effect on 1 January, but the actual costs it will impose on importers are still broadly unknown.
The CBAM policy has the potential to significantly drive up import costs for cement from outside the EU, particularly if companies do not complete a verification process to show the actual embedded carbon emissions in their product. But there is no clear procedure for this verification, and the timing is also unclear, market participants said.
"There is no supplier verified," the first cement maker said.
Companies have already completed a process to state their embedded emissions to the EU, and most are operating under the assumption that the EU will ultimately accept these values. A Turkish cement maker said it had made a few contracts to Europe, despite not having started a verification process with the EU.
Most Turkish producers are reporting emissions around 0.82t of CO2/t of cement, "although some state they have lower numbers", another Turkish producer said.
For grey Portland cement imported into the EU during 2026 from suppliers with verified emissions of 0.82t of CO2/t, the CBAM cost would be €15.14/t ($17.63/t) at Tuesday's EU ETS price of €88.70/t, according to Argus calculations.
But for suppliers that are not verified by the time the CBAM costs are calculated in 2027, a default value for the country of origin will apply.
These default values are designed to be high to encourage companies to participate in the verification process.
Ukraine, which supplied 1.6mn t of cement and clinker to the EU in 2025, according to the data available so far from Global Trade Tracker, has a country default value of 1.518t of CO2/t for Portland cement for 2026. This would mean a CBAM cost of €77/t at current ETS prices. Egypt, which supplied 1.3mn t as of the latest available data, has a default value of 1.419, while Algeria, which supplied 1.2m t, has 1.430t. These values would equal CBAM fees of roughly €68-€69/t.
Turkey, which supplied 4.8mn t last year and ranked as the largest cement and clinker country of origin, was not given a national default value. This means any unverified Turkish exporters will be subject to the "other countries and territories" default value of 1.584t for Portland cement for 2026, or a cost of almost €83/t at current prices.
The logic behind the country default value assignments is also unclear, another market participant said. Aside from the fact that the largest importer was not assigned a value, some countries' values do not seem to be related to the fuels they typically use to produce cement.
"Algeria and Egypt are very close to each other. But Egypt cement factories use petcoke and coal, whereas Algeria uses gas," he said.
Mediterranean cement, clinker fob prices steady
Turkey's bulk cement prices were flat in the mid-to-high $50s/t fob last month. Bagged cement offers remained almost unchanged in the mid-to-high $60s/t fob, although offers in the low $60s/t were no longer available. Clinker prices from Turkey were reported at $45-$48/t fob, with buyers not widely accepting offers above $48/t.
Egypt's pricing is largely aligned with Turkey, with premiums of $1-$3/t for cement depending on the destination. But export availability is limited, one cement maker said. A premium of "$1-$3/t is fine, but there's no cargo available," he said. "If you want to pay $58-$60/t, I don't think you're going to get it."
Egyptian clinker prices were in the high $40s/t fob because of stable demand, but export supply of this product is even tighter, as producers prefer to keep it for their own use.
