Danish shipping firm Maersk will switch one of its routes back to using the Suez Canal full-time, after successful transits of two ships from its fleet at the end of 2025.
The company will move its MECL route, which runs between the Middle East/India and the US Atlantic coast, back to using Suez rather than around the Cape of Good Hope, bringing it back to its route prior to Yemen-based Houthi militants beginning a campaign of attacks against shipping in late 2023.
In November, the Houthis signalled a pause to their attacks following the ceasefire agreement between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas a month earlier.
The first Maersk vessel to journey through the canal will depart an origin east of Suez on 15 January, and another will leave the US on 10 January. Maersk said it is monitoring the situation in the Bab el-Mandeb strait at the mouth of the Red Sea, where Houthi attacks have been concentrated, and said it will switch back to using the Cape of Good Hope route if it feels there is a risk to its vessels.
Shipowners' re-routing around the Cape boosted bunker fuel spot demand in southern Africa, at ports such as Cape Town and Durban in South Africa, and Port Louis in Mauritius.
Maersk's return to the Red Sea could incentivise smaller shipping companies, which would take bunkering demand back to Egypt's ports at Suez and Port Said. The route through Suez is the most efficient for transport between Asia-Pacific and Europe.
The combination of a possible widespread return to shipping traffic moving through the Suez Canal and an increasingly tight EU and US sanctions regime against Russia has generated significant uncertainty for the Long Range (LR) tanker market in 2026. A move back to the Suez Canal could create a lower ceiling for rates and reduce shipowners' profits in 2026, as it would shorten the average journey for an LR.
The Mideast Gulf to the UK Continent LR rates averaged $49.91/t and $46.91/t across the Long Range 1 (LR1) and Long Range 2 (LR2) segments respectively so far in January, up from $43.53/t and $42.51/t a year ago. But sanctions on Russia's energy sector is turning European participants' focus toward the Mideast Gulf for diesel supply, which could provide upward support to the rates.
Clean product tanker transits through the Suez Canal totalled 51 in December and 78 in November 2025 according to Vortexa, around one-fifth of the total before the Houthi attacks started. Three clean tankers have transited the Canal in January to date.
Charterers will struggle to mandate a vessel to transit the Bab el-Mandeb strait because the area is still rated at risk of 'Hull War, Piracy, Terrorism and Related Perils' by the Joint War Committee. In such a case, the charterer may have to cover the AWRP payments, subjective to the Charter Party, which would be significant.
